StoneCold":d5g3ac2h said:
BirdsCommaAngry":d5g3ac2h said:
Popeyejones":d5g3ac2h said:
People have lucky streaks and unlucky streaks and we try to make meaning out them.
This is too absolute. Making some illusionary correlations doesn't mean all perceived correlations are illusions.
Back when online poker was still semi legal here in Wa, I played hundreds of hands. I had no interest in losing money so I began to study. I read books and joined poker forums and discussed hands and strategies and learned some maths to calculate odds. One of the most difficult barriers to good play is recognizing when your actions succeeded due to luck or skill. It takes time to recognize that the reason playing A9 suited won was luck and not skill, but in the meantime winning is a self reinforcing experience. It takes experience winning and losing and self examination to come to a deeper understanding of how your actions truly contribute to the outcome of the game. There are things you control, whether to play a hand or not, whether to bet after the flop or fold, whether it's worth paying to see the next card. And there are things you don't. What cards your dealt, the flop, turn and river. The stupid lucky bastard that sucks out on the river in a hand they had no business playing. It's part of the game.
The draft is not unlike a hand of poker. I will end my little post by avoiding using a Forrest Gump quote.
:lol:
I think this is actually a really good example that proves my point (and to be clear in regards to BirdsCommaAngry's comment on mine, I was just referring to the draft).
By way of a poker story:
I have a friend who, when online poker was legal everywhere and a really popular leisure activity, did what you did and started reading a ton and got really invested in poker strategy.
He became an expert and made a living doing it. He quit his job and just through playing poker bought a house and a BMW, and was making a couple hundred thousands dollars a year.
Then online poker started being regulated more which limited the number of casual players, and then the poker fad also died down, so by a few years ago almost all the casual players were gone.
He spent the next year or two breaking even before he realized he needed to get a day job again.
What was happening was that over time all the people with expertise were just splitting the money of the casual players, and making their livings off it. With all the casual players gone, over time all the experts were just breaking even with each other.
Making the Comparison: Take the best 32 poker players in the world, and give them a staff of 50 plus people who work year round to ensure that they're the best poker players.
At this table of the best 32 poker players in the world, who ends up winning on any given hand is purely a matter of chance.
That's what the NFL draft is.