SalishHawkFan
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Was on Football Outsiders and they were arguing that there wasn't statistical evidence to support that Peyton Manning wasn't as good in the playoffs. I thought bull. We define a QB's greatness by their playoff success. In the playoffs they're playing the best the NFL has to offer, not the cream puffs they get on their regular schedule. On average, a QB's key ratings should decrease in the playoffs. The great ones, like Joe Montana, should see their playoff ratings stay the same or even increase.
So I did a blind test. Blind in that I had no idea whether or not the players I checked on would actually have better or worse stats. I named three QB's I though were actually average or worse in the playoffs. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Brady may surprise people but he plays a cream puff schedule every year that pads his stats. Then I named two QB's that have a reputation of being the greatest in the game come playoff time. Joe Montana and Brett Favre. Then I added in Russell Wilson.
These are the stats I used to determine a QB's greatness:
Completion %. This should dip slightly in the playoffs.
TD%. Do they rise to the occasion?
INT%. Or do they choke?
AYA (Adjusted Yards per pass Attempt). Considered a good metric of how well a QB is passing the ball.
ANYA (Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt). Takes into consideration the effect of sacks.
The results (regular season/playoffs):
The Not So Great After All QB's
Tom Brady:
C% (63.5/62.3)
TD% (5.5/4.6)
INT% (2.0*/2.3)
AYA (7.6/6.7)
ANYA 6.95/6.45
As you might expect, Brady's stats get worse in the playoffs vs quality opponents. They don't dip much however, except TD% takes a bit of a dip.
Peyton Manning:
C% (65.5*/64.0*)
TD% (5.9/4.1)
INT% (2.6/2.6)
AYA (7.7/6.9)
ANYA (7.27*/6.77)
Peyton leads all these guys in completion % so he's still great in the playoffs, but he does get slightly worse. In all other categories excetp INT% he gets worse in the playoffs.
Andrew Luck:
C% (58.6/59.5)
TD% (4.7/4.0)
INT% (2.4/4.4)
AYA (7.0/6.3)
ANYA (6.33/5.89)
Not only does Luck get worse in the playoffs in every category except completion %, but he's pretty much got the worst stats of this entire group.
The GREAT ONES
Joe Montana:
C% (63.2/62.7)
TD% (5.1/6.1* )
INT% (2.6/2.9)
AYA (7.4/7.8 )
ANYA (6.6/7.8 )
His completion % slightly dips and he gives up slightly more INTs, but he is the TD God of this group. And his ANYA significantly improves as well. Overall increase in 3 of the 5 categories.
Brett Favre:
C% (62.0/60.8 )
TD% (5.0/5.6)
INT% (3.3/3.8 )
AYA (6.6/6.8 )
ANYA (5.93/6.76)
Again, we see increase in 3 of 5 categories. It's Favre's INT's that go up and that's what the gunslinger was known for, blowing playoff games with untimely INTs. His completion % dipped vs superior opponents as well.
Russell Wilson:
C% (63.4/63.8 )
TD% (5.8*/5.9)
INT% (2.1/0.7* )
AYA (8.2*/9.9* )
ANYA (6.93/8.39* )
Russell Wilson gets better in every single category. His INT% is absurdly low. His AYA and ANYA in the playoffs blow away all the other "elite" QB's come playoff time. In fact, Wilson leads this group in 5 of the 10 possible stats regular and post season. 3 of 5 playoff stats belong to Wilson.
* denotes leads this group in that category.
So I did a blind test. Blind in that I had no idea whether or not the players I checked on would actually have better or worse stats. I named three QB's I though were actually average or worse in the playoffs. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Brady may surprise people but he plays a cream puff schedule every year that pads his stats. Then I named two QB's that have a reputation of being the greatest in the game come playoff time. Joe Montana and Brett Favre. Then I added in Russell Wilson.
These are the stats I used to determine a QB's greatness:
Completion %. This should dip slightly in the playoffs.
TD%. Do they rise to the occasion?
INT%. Or do they choke?
AYA (Adjusted Yards per pass Attempt). Considered a good metric of how well a QB is passing the ball.
ANYA (Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt). Takes into consideration the effect of sacks.
The results (regular season/playoffs):
The Not So Great After All QB's
Tom Brady:
C% (63.5/62.3)
TD% (5.5/4.6)
INT% (2.0*/2.3)
AYA (7.6/6.7)
ANYA 6.95/6.45
As you might expect, Brady's stats get worse in the playoffs vs quality opponents. They don't dip much however, except TD% takes a bit of a dip.
Peyton Manning:
C% (65.5*/64.0*)
TD% (5.9/4.1)
INT% (2.6/2.6)
AYA (7.7/6.9)
ANYA (7.27*/6.77)
Peyton leads all these guys in completion % so he's still great in the playoffs, but he does get slightly worse. In all other categories excetp INT% he gets worse in the playoffs.
Andrew Luck:
C% (58.6/59.5)
TD% (4.7/4.0)
INT% (2.4/4.4)
AYA (7.0/6.3)
ANYA (6.33/5.89)
Not only does Luck get worse in the playoffs in every category except completion %, but he's pretty much got the worst stats of this entire group.
The GREAT ONES
Joe Montana:
C% (63.2/62.7)
TD% (5.1/6.1* )
INT% (2.6/2.9)
AYA (7.4/7.8 )
ANYA (6.6/7.8 )
His completion % slightly dips and he gives up slightly more INTs, but he is the TD God of this group. And his ANYA significantly improves as well. Overall increase in 3 of the 5 categories.
Brett Favre:
C% (62.0/60.8 )
TD% (5.0/5.6)
INT% (3.3/3.8 )
AYA (6.6/6.8 )
ANYA (5.93/6.76)
Again, we see increase in 3 of 5 categories. It's Favre's INT's that go up and that's what the gunslinger was known for, blowing playoff games with untimely INTs. His completion % dipped vs superior opponents as well.
Russell Wilson:
C% (63.4/63.8 )
TD% (5.8*/5.9)
INT% (2.1/0.7* )
AYA (8.2*/9.9* )
ANYA (6.93/8.39* )
Russell Wilson gets better in every single category. His INT% is absurdly low. His AYA and ANYA in the playoffs blow away all the other "elite" QB's come playoff time. In fact, Wilson leads this group in 5 of the 10 possible stats regular and post season. 3 of 5 playoff stats belong to Wilson.
* denotes leads this group in that category.