The Hits Against PC/Schotty Keep Coming

[AgentDib]

The thing that sunk our chances on offense were three and out predicated on a rushing game that was ailing and there being an insufficient adjustment or plan to lean on.

I agree that #1 three and outs lead to lower offensive scoring, #2 our offense had a relatively high run/pass ratio, and #3 that our third and long percentage was a key reason why we had three and outs and lower offensive scoring. However, I have yet to be convinced that points #2 and #3 are casual in either direction. You have merely argued that both exist and I agree with you on that front, but all number of things exist at the same time without causing each other.

My first hypothesis is that poor interior OL play, in both run blocking and pass protection, was a primary cause of point #3 in the Cowboys playoff game. My second hypothesis is that OL penalties in pass protection was a primary cause of point #3 at many points in the regular season. I'm definitely open to being persuaded on either of those fronts, but that's the first reason why I don't think throwing the ball more often was an obvious solution.

 

[mrt144]

NE this weekend is a prime example of a team adjusting to the weaknesses of the other team. SD was beat up at linebacker and played a lot of dime and 7 db looks so what does NE do? They let James White catch 15 balls out of the backfield and attacked their weakness over and over. There is zero chance of the Seahawks doing that in the same situation and would rather grind out a close nail biter. Its absolutely bizarre. And don't get the wrong idea, Pete is an outstanding coach and his success can't be denied. It's just an area that I would consider his weakness.

I also hate that just because I think they should have adjusted earlier and utilized Wilson and locket more efficiently that I'm anti-run because I'm not. I'm fine with Pete's approach but with a little tweaking I think we probably win that game and do a little more all year long as well. Huard, Salk, Clayton keep painting the argument as if we wanted them to throw 50+ times a game and its intellectually dishonest.

The Pats essentially replaced the run game early on with short passing to attack a weakness which therein opened up the run game and their rookie tallies probably his best game of the year against a STOUT run D. Having the capabilities to essentially morph into any style to attack a weakness instead of 'run your game' is what the Pats do better than anyone. Completely neglecting the short/intermediate middle of the field on passing plays is something I've wished would go away for years.

The other thing I was thinking during the game is when it hit 21-7 with 6ish? minutes before half, Pats got the ball back and put 2 more TD's on the board while almost getting at least another FG. They called a timeout with 2 minutes left WINNING 35-7 when they sacked Rivers on first down to try and get another score. That is something you'd do to your friend in Madden. I can just see Pete getting the ball back and looking to grind out the half and head to half time 21-7 rather than step on their throats and put the game away before the 3rd quarter.

I get it I get it, shorten the field, limit turnovers, control the clock, trust your D, and I don't want anyone else but Pete. It has worked immensely well. It's just funny seeing complete opposite sides of the spectrum.

And this is the essence of what I'm talking about. When we have QBs at the median clocking a 2/3rd completion rate, we have contemporary evidence that passing yields a higher yards per play, some of the value of running starts to wear thin.

We have a few modern offenses that ding the conventional wisdom about the limits and peril of passing. I think even more than the Rams and Chiefs, the dang Bears with Mitchell Trubisky doing what they were able to with Trubisky...like...if the Bears aren't the keenest example of the revolution underway that even props up dubious talent...

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Or maybe they reached two Super Bowls with a run-first approach when all the same talking heads were predicting Manning to win for the exact same reason.

Remember how we lost 49 by passing instead of running?

Dynamic systems are dynamic. If you think things havent changed since 2013 and 2014 seasons across the league, well, no further need to talk about the future with you.

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

 

[John63]

So, you're saying get rid of Russell Wilson...

ahh we lead the league in run, run pass as the calls for a drive, that means Wilson being high in 3rd and long is a by-product of not doing well in the run, run part of the series, otherwise we would not be in 3rd and long

 

[chris98251]

The fundamental error in my opinion from Pete and Schotty is refusing to acknowledge that the climate of the NFL has changed and passing simply is that much better if you devote sufficient cognitive and personnel resources to it. Maybe the investment in tailoring the team towards that is too difficult a task for PC and Schotty to manage.

Or maybe they reached two Super Bowls with a run-first approach when all the same talking heads were predicting Manning to win for the exact same reason.

Remember how we lost 49 by passing instead of running?

Dynamic systems are dynamic. If you think things havent changed since 2013 and 2014 seasons across the league, well, no further need to talk about the future with you.

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Before then, Marino, Fouts, Bradshaw, Pastorini, Lamonica, were all touted as changing how the game was played, but look teams that can run and that is the Rams, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints, are in the playoffs, they just can pass also.

 

[John63]

Dynamic systems are dynamic. If you think things havent changed since 2013 and 2014 seasons across the league, well, no further need to talk about the future with you.

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

first, it says balance, we are not balanced. 2nd we can adjust our passing game to make it more dynamic, without sacrificing the run game, and in fact, would help the run game.

 

[mrt144]

The thing that sunk our chances on offense were three and out predicated on a rushing game that was ailing and there being an insufficient adjustment or plan to lean on.

I agree that #1 three and outs lead to lower offensive scoring, #2 our offense had a relatively high run/pass ratio, and #3 that our third and long percentage was a key reason why we had three and outs and lower offensive scoring. However, I have yet to be convinced that points #2 and #3 are casual in either direction. You have merely argued that both exist and I agree with you on that front, but all number of things exist at the same time without causing each other.

My first hypothesis is that poor interior OL play, in both run blocking and pass protection, was a primary cause of point #3 in the Cowboys playoff game. My second hypothesis is that OL penalties in pass protection was a primary cause of point #3 at many points in the regular season. I'm definitely open to being persuaded on either of those fronts, but that's the first reason why I don't think throwing the ball more often was an obvious solution.

Again, this just plays into my perhaps unstated point that conducting offense different than we do is a holistic adjustment that gets to some of the roots of our issues no matter who has been involved with offense. You mentioned penalties and to me, this is a larger issue that subverts design no matter what that design is. Holding penalties are kryptonite whether they occur on passing or rushing downs because they put us in a position that is already tilted against offensive success in aggregate and especially against our success in specific.

Some things could be made better simply by rooting out penalties but those seem part n parcel of the PC team experience.

And to the overarching point about a holistic change, this is why I think offensive evolution from the Hawks under PC is intractable because even if things were superficially changed to my taste preference on how offenses should conduct themselves, the team would likely still have to contend with some of those same underlying issues with discipline. And if some of those issues were shored up, perhaps then my grousing among others would be muted because the team itself would be more efficient.

But that's not how it is. And fwiw, I think a penalty on a rushing play is far worse for this team than other teams because they're putting crap on their bread and butter sammich and they don't have the concepts and will to proficiently make up for gaffes in the run game with a short/intermediate passing game.

 

[mrt144]

Dynamic systems are dynamic. If you think things havent changed since 2013 and 2014 seasons across the league, well, no further need to talk about the future with you.

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

Working a market inefficiency in perpetuity is not a reasonable long term plan for an investor. Many have lost their shirt in arbitrage gone wrong. I didn't claim you were remembering wrong, I claimed you were holding the words of premature declaration of the status quo irrevocably changing against people claiming the status quo has verifiably changed in 2018. In 2013 the Median pass completion was still ~61%. This has everything with you acknowledging change in the now, not using false prognostications about the end of rushing as we know it against people claiming that the league is sufficiently different now than it was even 5 years ago. And that conceptually some things are on the table and some things are off.

 

[mrt144]

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

first, it says balance, we are not balanced. 2nd we can adjust our passing game to make it more dynamic, without sacrificing the run game, and in fact, would help the run game.

The Rams are a proof of concept that there need not be a huge sacrifice in your efficiency in either arena of play call to do well. Do they have talent? Yes. Is it so far superior to our talent that they're allowed to play Chess while we're stuck with Checkers because we're so talent bare? I don't believe so but we'll never know because the SOP of the team seems to have passing and rushing as two dichotomous entities unless it's play action and even then, they don't utilize it like the Rams use it. Maybe the new crop of NFL coaches along with Andy Reid and Sean Payton always being a plucky offensive minds don't have to seemingly sacrifice.

I feel like that terrible Old El Paso ad with the little girl asking "Why not both?" By what virtue does a modern NFL offense need to sacrifice their passing game to be more than just competent at rushing and vice versa?

 

[AgentDib]

I think a penalty on a rushing play is far worse for this team than other teams because they're putting crap on their bread and butter sammich and they don't have the concepts and will to proficiently make up for gaffes in the run game with a short/intermediate passing game.

I agree that penalties are particularly damaging for our offense but I would continue to argue that our weakness this year in that regard was more about personnel then a lack of awareness about short passing concepts. We haven't had an effective slot other than ADB and we haven't hit on any of the big split ends we keep churning through. Another way of solving the issue is with pass catching backs and if we trust Penny to pass protect more in his second year that could be a partial solution.

 

[AgentDib]

I feel like that terrible Old El Paso ad with the little girl asking "Why not both?" By what virtue does a modern NFL offense need to sacrifice their passing game to be more than just competent at rushing and vice versa?

OL scarcity is one reason, but I would argue a team with a high ratio of run/pass needs an efficient passing attack just as much as any other team. As previously argued, high run/pass ratios lead to a lot of third downs, and converting those third downs efficiently is what allows the offense to be successful. That's why many have no problem with the Seahawks paying Russ big money while still maintaining a philosophy about having a relatively high run/pass ratio.

 

[mrt144]

I think a penalty on a rushing play is far worse for this team than other teams because they're putting crap on their bread and butter sammich and they don't have the concepts and will to proficiently make up for gaffes in the run game with a short/intermediate passing game.

I agree that penalties are particularly damaging for our offense but I would continue to argue that our weakness this year in that regard was more about personnel then a lack of awareness about short passing concepts. We haven't had an effective slot other than ADB and we haven't hit on any of the big split ends we keep churning through. Another way of solving the issue is with pass catching backs and if we trust Penny to pass protect more in his second year that could be a partial solution.

I'd love for personnel to develop and help with this a ton, I really would. I just have PTSDB syndrome on maximizing tactics to talent and vice versa. I would love to see more passes to our RBs, but what I did see this season was borderline oafish at times. At TE, maybe Dissly will shine again and carry the load we've needed carried for a while now. He looked great in the games he did play.

I know you didn't mean to invoke this topic (well, maybe you did?) but I really wonder sometimes if we are getting the right folks in the door to match what we want to do. I know its hard as hell which is why I avoid so much relating to offseason roster moves - it's just too much info to have a meaningful opinion to me and then it all gets blown to bits by what the FO actually does.

Truth be told, I'm definitely a pantry cook. I take stock of what I have on hand and conjure up a meal out of that. My mind in almost all aspects, whether that's work, my marriage, friends, hobbies, etc etc is making the best out of what you have available rather than seeking out ideals to accomplish an ideal. I don't have time for ideals.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

"It's a passing league" arguments have been going on since the mid-2000s. I know, because I've been here, and we've been having them. The NFL rules favoring quarterbacks were implemented before Pete arrived in Seattle and the trend existed before then.

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

Working a market inefficiency in perpetuity is not a reasonable long term plan for an investor. Many have lost their shirt in arbitrage gone wrong. I didn't claim you were remembering wrong, I claimed you were holding the words of premature declaration of the status quo irrevocably changing against people claiming the status quo has verifiably changed in 2018. In 2013 the Median pass completion was still ~61%. This has everything with you acknowledging change in the now, not using false prognostications about the end of rushing as we know it against people claiming that the league is sufficiently different now than it was even 5 years ago. And that conceptually some things are on the table and some things are off.

You are all twisted up in knots at this point.

You implied earlier that it wasn't a passing league in 2013 in order to get around the fact that Pete won two NFC championships with a run-first, pass-when-you-must approach. I corrected your hypothesis. Now we should re-examine the conclusion.

 

[mrt144]

Except the numbers are validating that premise in full now. You are hanging on to people's perception of heralding in a new era before it was really in full effect over the heads of people pointing to the statistical evidence that the league really has changed distinctly now.

The MEDIAN completion percentage among NFL Qbs is 67%. Palmer LED the league in 2005 with that number. Come on buddy.

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:

It's a passing league, but balance still wins.

Gone are the days of the hard-nosed, old-school head coaches and offensive play-callers who preached toughness and 3 yards and a cloud of dust. If you don't believe it, just look at the numbers in Week 1 of the NFL regular season.

This past weekend, NFL teams threw for a combined 8,143 passing yards, the highest total in NFL history. Not Week 1 history. League history.

Also recorded were the highest number of receiving touchdowns. Again, the most in league history.

And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

Working a market inefficiency in perpetuity is not a reasonable long term plan for an investor. Many have lost their shirt in arbitrage gone wrong. I didn't claim you were remembering wrong, I claimed you were holding the words of premature declaration of the status quo irrevocably changing against people claiming the status quo has verifiably changed in 2018. In 2013 the Median pass completion was still ~61%. This has everything with you acknowledging change in the now, not using false prognostications about the end of rushing as we know it against people claiming that the league is sufficiently different now than it was even 5 years ago. And that conceptually some things are on the table and some things are off.

You are all twisted up in knots at this point.

You implied earlier that it wasn't a passing league in 2013 in order to get around the fact that Pete won two NFC championships with a run-first, pass-when-you-must approach. I corrected your hypothesis. Now we should re-examine the conclusion.

Have it your way dude. The league hasn't changed materially from 2013 and most offenses that are succeeding now on the back of the passing game are an aberration to NFL football. Agreed. Have a good offseason!

 

[GeekHawk]

Did you people honestly think that our O-line was going to go worst-to-first in one year? With the same players, and a new line coach who has to un-learn them from all the rhymes-with-unable "techniques" he taught them? Holy shit. Even one entire season is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions yet. Criminy!

 

[MontanaHawk05]

I'm not remembering anything wrong.

How the NFL Became a Passing League

Posted the September before we won the Super Bowl:



And then it actually goes on to say that BECAUSE of this passing league phenomenon, focusing on the run is basically a market deficiency teams could exploit. That's exactly what Pete did.

Working a market inefficiency in perpetuity is not a reasonable long term plan for an investor. Many have lost their shirt in arbitrage gone wrong. I didn't claim you were remembering wrong, I claimed you were holding the words of premature declaration of the status quo irrevocably changing against people claiming the status quo has verifiably changed in 2018. In 2013 the Median pass completion was still ~61%. This has everything with you acknowledging change in the now, not using false prognostications about the end of rushing as we know it against people claiming that the league is sufficiently different now than it was even 5 years ago. And that conceptually some things are on the table and some things are off.

You are all twisted up in knots at this point.

You implied earlier that it wasn't a passing league in 2013 in order to get around the fact that Pete won two NFC championships with a run-first, pass-when-you-must approach. I corrected your hypothesis. Now we should re-examine the conclusion.

Have it your way dude. The league hasn't changed materially from 2013 and most offenses that are succeeding now on the back of the passing game are an aberration to NFL football. Agreed. Have a good offseason!

Now you're the one throwing around whiny straw men.

All I'm saying is that you can win either way. That's all I was ever saying. 48 was a win against the exact kind of offensive philosophy that's now dominating the playoffs.

 

[mrt144]

Did you people honestly think that our O-line was going to go worst-to-first in one year? With the same players, and a new line coach who has to un-learn them from all the rhymes-with-unable "techniques" he taught them? Holy shit. Even one entire season is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions yet. Criminy!

One season isn't too small of a sample size to draw conclusions about the 16+1 games the Hawks played within that season. We aren't trying to build a predictive model of how football team populations that resemble the Hawks will perform based on the sample of the Hawks, nor are we trying to build a predictive model of how the Hawks themselves will perform next season. Well Im not trying to at least.

Do you think the coaches believe there wasn't enough information from this season to improve upon for next season?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

You are all twisted up in knots at this point.

You implied earlier that it wasn't a passing league in 2013 in order to get around the fact that Pete won two NFC championships with a run-first, pass-when-you-must approach. I corrected your hypothesis. Now we should re-examine the conclusion.

It's not an either/or question, it's both a running and a passing league.....and it's always been that way, it's about balance, not one or the other.

Why do you think three of the four teams left in the playoffs took RB's in the first round (Saints, Rams and Patriots). They're all shining examples you guys keep puking up to prove it's a passing league, yet all three think running is AS important as passing.........so much so that they spent the most important draft pick there is on a premiere running back.

Why? Balance. Because that's what wins games. Passing ,running, it doesn't matter because if there's one thing you cannot be and win in the NFL, it's predictable.

So have all the "are we too predictable" conversations you want, that's a real discussion, and I'm all ears. But enough already with "OMG we have to pass all the time now cause the league has changed!"

 

[Scorpion05]

We didn’t lose SB 49 by passing instead of running. We lost because we called an unsafe play with so many risky outcomes. That pass to Lockette, assuming Butler doesn’t break on it could have gotten tipped, bobbled, etc. A roll out or fade would have made more sense

A great coach caters to the skills of his players. Andy Reid’s scheme for McNabb, Jeff Garcia, Vick, Alex Smith, and now Mahomes have ALL succeeded. And that’s why when people question whether Russ could succeed in a pass first offense it just wreaks of bias and lack of football knowledge.

Pete needs to cater the offense more to Russ, instead of just forcing his system on him. Invest more in the O-line, go after a top WR prospect, trade for a player that fits your star QB. Put Russ on the Chiefs or Rams, and I have ZERO doubt they’d approach Russ differently. The Patriots have won for almost 20 years by adapting and catering to Tom Brady. They may not sign big names but they always get players that fit a scheme to fit Brady for that year. This year they’ve given him a power running game given his age. This is basic stuff that we bicker and argue over on this forum. We need to be a bit more balanced in the passing game, period. More play action, put Moore at the 4, or just trade Wilson and stop wasting everyone’s time(and his career)

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Did you people honestly think that our O-line was going to go worst-to-first in one year? With the same players, and a new line coach who has to un-learn them from all the rhymes-with-unable "techniques" he taught them? Holy shit. Even one entire season is too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions yet. Criminy!

Hans Christian Anderson techniques....yes Fables. But carry on my wayward son. LOL :stirthepot:

After all, they did allow them 4 games at the beginning of the year. :evil: