Talent Evaluation Trending Down Since 2014

[MO Hawk]

In 2010, Pete's first year with Seattle, he drafted Okung and Thomas in the 1st round, and in 2011 James Carpenter also picking up KJ Wright in the 4th and Richard Sherman in the 5th. In 2012 Bruce Irvin in the 1st, Wagner in the 2nd and Wilson in the 3rd. These years were in close proximity to his college coaching career where he had a good handle on talent entering the draft.

2014, IMO, started our decline. we drafted Paul Richardson with our 1st pick in the 2nd round, and in 2015 Frank Clark was our 1st pick in the 2nd round. In 2016 we took Ifedi, 2017 (never played a down) McDowell and Pocic, again 1st picks in the 2nd round. Troubling was that we were trading our 1st round picks for people like Harvin as well as trading for more draft picks in later rounds.

In 2018 our 1st round pick was Penny, 2019 Collier, 2020 Jordyn Brooks, and this year Eskridge who hasn't done much yet. Getting Metcalf with pick 64, 2nd round in 2019 was a great pick, however that kind of fell into our lap and seemed to be a no brainer.

Another story is the constant injuries of our high draft picks who spend more time injured than on the field.

It seems Pete and John's talent evaluation is not what it use to be and something in our training procedures seems to have Seattle with above average injuries for our top draft picks. Maybe our injuries are similar to other teams, not sure how to measure that?

Three questions then in overall evaluation of this team. 1. Are we doing well this year (um, NO) and 2. Are we headed in the right direction (not sure we are) and are either of the answers to the first two questions likely to change anytime soon? If we are not winning and not headed in the right direction, and it's not likely to change, then what does Jodie do for next year?

Finally, if you are Pete, 70 years old, have all the $$ you need, have a great family, and the future looks like more of the same, why wouldn't you retire and call it good?

 

[oldhawkfan]

In 2010, Pete's first year with Seattle, he drafted Okung and Thomas in the 1st round, and in 2011 James Carpenter also picking up KJ Wright in the 4th and Richard Sherman in the 5th. In 2012 Bruce Irvin in the 1st, Wagner in the 2nd and Wilson in the 3rd. These years were in close proximity to his college coaching career where he had a good handle on talent entering the draft.

2014, IMO, started our decline. we drafted Paul Richardson with our 1st pick in the 2nd round, and in 2015 Frank Clark was our 1st pick in the 2nd round. In 2016 we took Ifedi, 2017 (never played a down) McDowell and Pocic, again 1st picks in the 2nd round. Troubling was that we were trading our 1st round picks for people like Harvin as well as trading for more draft picks in later rounds.

In 2018 our 1st round pick was Penny, 2019 Collier, 2020 Jordyn Brooks, and this year Eskridge who hasn't done much yet. Getting Metcalf with pick 64, 2nd round in 2019 was a great pick, however that kind of fell into our lap and seemed to be a no brainer.

Another story is the constant injuries of our high draft picks who spend more time injured than on the field.

It seems Pete and John's talent evaluation is not what it use to be and something in our training procedures seems to have Seattle with above average injuries for our top draft picks. Maybe our injuries are similar to other teams, not sure how to measure that?

Three questions then in overall evaluation of this team. 1. Are we doing well this year (um, NO) and 2. Are we headed in the right direction (not sure we are) and are either of the answers to the first two questions likely to change anytime soon? If we are not winning and not headed in the right direction, and it's not likely to change, then what does Jodie do for next year?

Finally, if you are Pete, 70 years old, have all the $$ you need, have a great family, and the future looks like more of the same, why wouldn't you retire and call it good?[/quote]


I think your last part is fairly easy to answer. Pete isn’t still working because he needs the money. He’s still working because he likes doing what he’s doing. Some people put off retirement because they enjoy working and wouldn’t know what to do with themselves if they did retire. As high energy as he seems to be, his wife probably tells him to keep working because he would drive her crazy if he was home everyday with nothing to do. The decision will probably have to be made for him because he probably thinks he can coach until noon on the day of his funeral.

 

[ZagHawk]

In 2010, Pete's first year with Seattle, he drafted Okung and Thomas in the 1st round, and in 2011 James Carpenter also picking up KJ Wright in the 4th and Richard Sherman in the 5th. In 2012 Bruce Irvin in the 1st, Wagner in the 2nd and Wilson in the 3rd. These years were in close proximity to his college coaching career where he had a good handle on talent entering the draft.

2014, IMO, started our decline. we drafted Paul Richardson with our 1st pick in the 2nd round, and in 2015 Frank Clark was our 1st pick in the 2nd round. In 2016 we took Ifedi, 2017 (never played a down) McDowell and Pocic, again 1st picks in the 2nd round. Troubling was that we were trading our 1st round picks for people like Harvin as well as trading for more draft picks in later rounds.

In 2018 our 1st round pick was Penny, 2019 Collier, 2020 Jordyn Brooks, and this year Eskridge who hasn't done much yet. Getting Metcalf with pick 64, 2nd round in 2019 was a great pick, however that kind of fell into our lap and seemed to be a no brainer.

Another story is the constant injuries of our high draft picks who spend more time injured than on the field.

It seems Pete and John's talent evaluation is not what it use to be and something in our training procedures seems to have Seattle with above average injuries for our top draft picks. Maybe our injuries are similar to other teams, not sure how to measure that?

Three questions then in overall evaluation of this team. 1. Are we doing well this year (um, NO) and 2. Are we headed in the right direction (not sure we are) and are either of the answers to the first two questions likely to change anytime soon? If we are not winning and not headed in the right direction, and it's not likely to change, then what does Jodie do for next year?

Finally, if you are Pete, 70 years old, have all the $$ you need, have a great family, and the future looks like more of the same, why wouldn't you retire and call it good?

There is a narrative out there that when Pete first arrived to the Seahawks he had a leg up on other NFL teams drafting because as a college coach he had more intimate knowledge on players. It does seem to align at this point.

 

[ZagHawk]

In 2010, Pete's first year with Seattle, he drafted Okung and Thomas in the 1st round, and in 2011 James Carpenter also picking up KJ Wright in the 4th and Richard Sherman in the 5th. In 2012 Bruce Irvin in the 1st, Wagner in the 2nd and Wilson in the 3rd. These years were in close proximity to his college coaching career where he had a good handle on talent entering the draft.

2014, IMO, started our decline. we drafted Paul Richardson with our 1st pick in the 2nd round, and in 2015 Frank Clark was our 1st pick in the 2nd round. In 2016 we took Ifedi, 2017 (never played a down) McDowell and Pocic, again 1st picks in the 2nd round. Troubling was that we were trading our 1st round picks for people like Harvin as well as trading for more draft picks in later rounds.

In 2018 our 1st round pick was Penny, 2019 Collier, 2020 Jordyn Brooks, and this year Eskridge who hasn't done much yet. Getting Metcalf with pick 64, 2nd round in 2019 was a great pick, however that kind of fell into our lap and seemed to be a no brainer.

Another story is the constant injuries of our high draft picks who spend more time injured than on the field.

It seems Pete and John's talent evaluation is not what it use to be and something in our training procedures seems to have Seattle with above average injuries for our top draft picks. Maybe our injuries are similar to other teams, not sure how to measure that?

Three questions then in overall evaluation of this team. 1. Are we doing well this year (um, NO) and 2. Are we headed in the right direction (not sure we are) and are either of the answers to the first two questions likely to change anytime soon? If we are not winning and not headed in the right direction, and it's not likely to change, then what does Jodie do for next year?

Finally, if you are Pete, 70 years old, have all the $$ you need, have a great family, and the future looks like more of the same, why wouldn't you retire and call it good?[/quote]

I think your last part is fairly easy to answer. Pete isn’t still working because he needs the money. He’s still working because he likes doing what he’s doing. Some people put off retirement because they enjoy working and wouldn’t know what to do with themselves if they did retire. As high energy as he seems to be, his wife probably tells him to keep working because he would drive her crazy if he was home everyday with nothing to do. The decision will probably have to be made for him because he probably thinks he can coach until noon on the day of his funeral.

Going with the last part. People like PC aren't exactly doing the job for money, they made enough money A LONG time ago to retire happily, they tend to be workaholics and more driven by legacy than just taking care of one's family. That being said I can see how this thought process may perhaps be also why the drafting hasn't been that great as of late. Pete is pretty old, as others have said he probably has no desire to start from scratch again because that does take years and it tends to guarantee starting off with a losing season or two. He's probably not excited at that idea. Which is why he's opted to run the team it has to stay good, but it has been slowly declining since 2014 vs a drop to a hopeful rise to contendership.

 

[seabowl]

Timeline of the PC/JS regime for drafting 2010-present:

Media responses to their picks-

2010-2013- What are these guys doing??? Who did they just pick???

2014-2019- Well we didn't have that player this high but we all know the success that the Hawks have had with players being picked higher than we thought they should go and who am I to challenge it so... Great Pick Seattle

2020-present- What are these guys doing??? Who did they just pick???

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It seems Pete and John's talent evaluation is not what it use to be and something in our training procedures seems to have Seattle with above average injuries for our top draft picks. Maybe our injuries are similar to other teams, not sure how to measure that?

We could probably make a Pro Bowl roster out of the players we passed over to either select someone else or drop down in the draft.

So IMO that's a big issue, Pete and John still think they're masters of the trade down and mining draft talent with their own special formula of evaluation.

That special ability went away somewhere around 2015-2016. From there on out they should have stopped taking potential value reaches, and just taken the known commodity player. We'd have a great center, CB, safety and other key positions filled..........instead of the turnstyle stiffs of guys like Ifedi, Collier, McDowell, etc.

 

[MO Hawk]

Zag, I think you are right about his love of the game. He has been the best coach Seattle has ever had. I have no hard feelings over this year and know he's doing the best he can. I do miss deep playoff runs and winning.

Living near Kansas City, it was thought Andy Reid was washed up, then the Hunt family gave him another chance and he won a Super Bowl. Now KC finds it's self in a very similar situation to Seattle this year in many ways.

 

[MO Hawk]

That special ability went away somewhere around 2015-2016. From there on out they should have stopped taking potential value reaches, and just taken the known commodity player. We'd have a great center, CB, safety and other key positions filled...….instead of the turnstile stiffs of guys like Ifedi, Collier, McDowell, etc.

I remember the year before Pete arrived that in 2016 we picked Aron Curry out of Wake Forest with the 5th pick overall. Everyone praised Seattle for a great pick at a high need position, except it wasn't as it later turned out.

I think taking known commodity players is the right way to go rather than going out on a limb and gambling. It's like Vegas, when gambling, the odds aren't in your favor.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

That special ability went away somewhere around 2015-2016. From there on out they should have stopped taking potential value reaches, and just taken the known commodity player. We'd have a great center, CB, safety and other key positions filled...….instead of the turnstile stiffs of guys like Ifedi, Collier, McDowell, etc.

I remember the year before Pete arrived that in 2016 we picked Aron Curry out of Wake Forest with the 5th pick overall. Everyone praised Seattle for a great pick at a high need position, except it wasn't as it later turned out.

I think taking known commodity players is the right way to go rather than going out on a limb and gambling. It's like Vegas, when gambling, the odds aren't in your favor.

2016 - drop down out of the 26th pick and draft Ifedi at 31. Could have drafted Kenny Clark, All Pro DT.

2017 - dropped down THREE times and drafted McDowell. Could have drafted TJ Watt, Ryan Ramczyk, Cam Robinson or Buddha Baker

2018 - traded down from 18 to 27 and took Penny. Could have drafted Ragnow (All Pro Center), Jairre Alexander (All Pro LB), DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley.

2019 - Traded down the pick we got from KC for Clark, and drafted Collier. Could have drafted Josh Jacobs, Montez Sweat, Tytus Howard (All Rookie team), Jonathan Abram (beast of a SS).

Btw, I know that hindsight draft criticism is in a vacuum and some of these trade downs did result in some good players.

But that doesn't mean the criticism isn't valid, and it most certainly is here when you're looking at a 5-6 year track record of whiffing on 1st rounders when the MUCH higher percentage player to play well was on the board.

But no, John and Pete still think their draft wizards and will keep getting cute..........and hell, now they HAVE to do this to get more picks that they traded away.

 

[ZagHawk]

Timeline of the PC/JS regime for drafting 2010-present:

Media responses to their picks-

2010-2013- What are these guys doing??? Who did they just pick???

2014-2019- Well we didn't have that player this high but we all know the success that the Hawks have had with players being picked higher than we thought they should go and who am I to challenge it so... Great Pick Seattle

2020-present- What are these guys doing??? Who did they just pick???

I don't think people are struggling with the 2020-Present drafts like that (with you hoping this team is going to come out suddenly looking like 2012-2014 Hawks). People are discussing the absolute busts of trades/drafts from 2014-2019 that have created this current team. 2020 to present i dont think anyone is really criticizing yet because that's too soon in any players career.

 

[Fade]

The 2013 Draft class was one of their worst. So no, it actually started in 2013.

They're approaching a decade of bad drafting. Russell Wilson has masked how bad it's really been for a longtime now.

 

[JayhawkMike]

After years of sitting at the rejects table it feels like all the kids at the cool table came and sat by me. LOL

 

[ZagHawk]

Zag, I think you are right about his love of the game. He has been the best coach Seattle has ever had. I have no hard feelings over this year and know he's doing the best he can. I do miss deep playoff runs and winning.

Living near Kansas City, it was thought Andy Reid was washed up, then the Hunt family gave him another chance and he won a Super Bowl. Now KC finds it's self in a very similar situation to Seattle this year in many ways.

People don't want to hear it because "you know how hard it is to find a franchise QB". But history is proving with all these teams that go to the SB (and/or win) with a rookie QB, once you pay that rookie QB the other parts of the team start to give and they find themselves in a bad spot.

If you take Tom Brady out of the last decade of SB winners/losers. There's about 5 non rookie contract QBs involved (4 lost - JG, Newton, Ryan and Big Ben, 1 won = Manning). Take Brady also out of the mix, and the rest of the winners/losers were all on rookie contracts (Fact check this but Flacco and Rodgers, and then for sure Wilson, Mahomes, Goff, Wentz - 5 wins out of 7 appearances). Brady is the X-Factor he doesn't count, he takes a discount for his value and has the power to bring in people to play with him under their value as well.

Anyway what this tells me is if you want your greatest chance to get to (and win a SB), you gotta find a rookie QB (which is no easy task) and use the rest of your money to stack the rest of the team and make a run. But then again, hey look turns out Goff is garbage huh? the Rams made it to the SB with him, so maybe you don't need a franchise QB after all?!? Flacco also turned out to be garbage too didn't he? I think this is rapidly proving although the QB is THE MOST Important position in football, I think it is an overvalued position once they need to get paid. Right now the top QBs are being paid 16-21% of a team's salary cap. The realistic number of what they should be paid for their worth is probably closer to 14%. That extra 2-6% is roughly 3-12.7M, you telling me this team with an extra 3-12.7M which is 1-3 quality starters isn't a dramatically different team on the field? with a completley different record?

I'm going to call this now (which isn't even going out on a limb, because people called this on RW, Goff, Mahomes and Wentz). Outside of injury, Arizona is going to the SB (maybe even winning), once Murray gets paid their team is going to slowly go in the toilet just like every other team listed above once they pay their QB what "they are worth".