Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina

[Joat]

So Gus Bradley added nothing?

 

[RolandDeschain]

So Gus Bradley added nothing?

Well, he added soft zone to give up huge plays at the end of 4th quarters a good number of times, for sure.

(To be clear, I don't hate Bradley or think he was a bad D-coord, I just think that was his one considerable weakness/issue.)

 

[Scottemojo]

So Gus Bradley added nothing?

Of course he added something.

Who runs your D, the DC, or are Rivera's fingerprints all over it? It's probably just like that in Seattle

 

[CaptainSkybeard]

I am definitely irritated that our pass rushers are basically ALL out... Especially pissed at Irvin, it was his fault, and the effect of his stupid mistake are magnified by the injuries around him.

And pissed at the FedEx field grounds crew for Clemons.

BUT, if anyone has the secondary to compensate for poor pass rush, it's Seattle.

 

[Kixkahn]

I think Seahawks win by 10+.

I'll be happy with any win even by 1. That said I agree with you.

 

[keepertd]

GL to you Seahawks! have a great season! look forward to playing you again love from Falcons country (dont ask, im bored and enjoyed talking to ya'll last year..so figured id visit and say hi!)

 

[HawkFan72]

So Gus Bradley added nothing?

Of course he added something.

Who runs your D, the DC, or are Rivera's fingerprints all over it? It's probably just like that in Seattle

That's a great way to explain it.

 

[Joat]

Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.

 

[Smelly McUgly]

I am definitely irritated that our pass rushers are basically ALL out

Are they?

 

[Joat]

Our DL is a big reason I think the Panthers emerge victorious.

 

[yeastmode]

Our DL is a big reason I think the Panthers emerge victorious.

The two things that PC values most are the reasons I think we will win - explosive plays plays and turnovers, especially turnovers. Yes, your D-line is improved, but our ZBS BeastMode ground game routinely handled good defensive fronts last season and even in our losses it kept us in every game (biggest margin of defeat was 7 points to SF, 13-6). I don't see your D-line putting you over the top in this game, nor will it be enough to overcome what will likely be a multi-turnover game for Cam against our secondary, which will be set up by Seattle jumping out to a wide first half lead with multiple explosive PA plays exploiting your spare secondary. With a first half lead we will go ball control BeastMode in the second half, forcing Carolina to abandon the run game in favor of the passing game to play catch-up, at which point our secondary will get multiple picks. In short, good Carolina D-line or no, I see this game being about explosive plays and turnovers, both of which Seattle should win.

 

[Joat]

Multi-turnover game?

Well, at least you have confidence going for you.

 

[yeastmode]

Multi-turnover game?

Well, at least you have confidence going for you.

Yep, I expect Cam to throw the ball to our secondary multiple times in this game. That combined with fumbles created by our many ball hawks on defense as well as our superior special teams and we will comfortably win the turnover battle in this game. It wouldn't surprise me if a good chunk of our points were scored by our defense in the form of pick-6's and fumble returns for TD's. I am very confident we will win the turnover battle, which will be even more exacerbated if we can generated explosive plays in the first half and take a double digit lead into the third quarter.

 

[HawkWow]

Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line. Poster 1 says "3 pts is too much" and bets Carolina. Poster 2 says "3 pts is not enough" and bets Seattle. Vegas' work is done. They have created balance. Each poster bets $1000 and no matter who wins, Vegas pockets $100. Genius.

IF suddenly $2000 comes in on Seattle and only $500 on Carolina, Vegas will rebalance by moving the line up (3.5-4, etc) to attract that Carolina bettor and will move it as far as necessary to get that mandatory balance. Vegas is only dumb when they do not attain that balance by kick off (it happens). They will then create (more) prop bets to attract money to the weak side (of their ledger) for the second qtr / 2nd half, etc.

My approach: Because of the conditions we face (opening day hostile crowd, travel, etc) I will award Carolina a generous 7 pts for HFA. I think Vegas has done the same. That said, Vegas believes the typical bettor believes Seattle is 10 pts better than Carolina on a neutral field.

My own line tells me Seattle is more like 13 pts better on neutral turf, which means I believe we will win by 6 @ Carolina. But that is too close to -3 for my liking. Consequently, I see no (clear) weakness in this line and will not bet this game. YMMV.

 

[rideaducati]

Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.

You have something in common with Russell Wilson...neither of you are worried about the Prancer secondary.

 

[rideaducati]

Panther's added S Quintin Mikell to the roster today. Given his familiarity with McDermott and the Seahawks I think he'll see quite a few snaps this Sunday.

I wasn't that worried about our secondary, but this makes me feel better.

You have something in common with Russell Wilson...neither of you are worried about the Prancer secondary.

 

[Joat]

On a nuetral field I'd give the edge to Seattle, most people would.

But with it being a home opener on the east coast I like our chances. I also think our D will wind up top 5 and it starts with this game.

I see a Panther win by at least a TD.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line.

That doesn't matter anywhere near as much as most people think it does. Vegas doesn't create odds based on who they think will win, they create odds and adjust them as the game gets closer to even out the betting, to make themselves as likely to win as often as possible.

 

[kearly]

Kip, I don't often think you are wrong, but I think you have this one way off. The summer heat is about the only concern I agree with, and that is a big one.

Wilson is not struggling. I simply don't see how you are calling pre-season tinkering with an offense is equal to struggling. A bit of read option will serve to freeze some DE and safeties, things we simply did not for good reason see in the pre-season. The run game might struggle, and if it does this could be a low scoring affair.

You have been really impressed with how Carolina played late last year. I am not. I watched those games, they beat really bad teams with one exception, Atlanta, and we saw first hand how a mobile QB turns taht Atlanta D inside out.

Worthy of note: Rivera is not a good HC. Carolina is playing out the string with him. And Cam may have a new OC, but the much touted offensive changes this yer have mostly amounted to just letting Cam do what Cam does best and more run game. Chud was in error trying to make Cam play more traditional. But Seattle's strength is lateral speed on defense, which is where Cam makes his hay, and down the numbers to the sidelines press coverage, which is where Cam makes his best throws.

But there is the heat.

This post is a relief, because I was starting to think you were afraid to openly disagree with me.

You bring up some good points, here is what I think.

As much as I think the world of Wilson, one of his few flaws is distance accuracy. It was a problem in college, it was a problem early last season, and it was a problem this preseason. Sure, you could argue that he was over-throwing and under-throwing deep passes because he wasn't used to those WRs yet, and maybe that really is the reason. But this has been a problem for him in the past so it makes me think it probably is more than just chemistry. He also took some sacks that I thought were on him as much as anyone else.

I do agree that in real games Wilson will be a lot better than he was in the preseason. Getting Rice, Lynch, and Miller back is huge, and the read option will open things up just like last year. That said, I did see signs of rust in the preseason and while Wilson is an elite QB, he does tend to get most of his production in spurts with little "recession" moments in-between where he looks like a mere mortal. I don't think anything is wrong with Wilson, I just think there were some potentially negative signs that he might be shaking off rust and I tend to take those signs seriously even if they turn out to be a mirage.

Carolina has a big, fast front seven that will be very hard to run on. It is far better than last year's front seven when we faced them and Seattle had a relatively tough time running on that defense as well. If Bevell/PC are smart and use the read option to set up the pass instead of gunning for 40 carries, I think we probably do just fine on offense, but if they stubbornly stick to the run I could see another Miami situation.

I did not watch Carolina's defense last season, but I did see them rocket up FO's season rankings, and I did watch their starting defense twice in the preseason and was highly impressed both times.

Rivera probably is a bad coach, I don't really know much about him. That said, if Cam Newton doesn't skip rocks on 4th and goal to an open TE in the endzone, we might have lost to them last year anyway. That said, Carolina's offense sucked against us in that game and I don't expect that to be any different. I expect Seattle's defense to dominate. Newton has looked pretty bad in the preseason and their RB situation is a mess.

I just put up a post earlier today (before I saw this response) saying I feel a lot better about the Carolina game now, but I do think our offense will wait to the 2nd half to wake up, similar to the Jets game last year. That is unless Seattle unloads on Carolina early with a ton of play action. I think Carolina is really going to game plan the run, despite the fact that based on the matchup, they should do the opposite. They know that Seattle likes to run the ball often early in games, and that our offense is a lot less comfortable on 3rd and longs.

I know it was preseason, but Oakland went all out to attack our run offense because they didn't really have the pass rushers to do what Green Bay did to us the week before. I think Carolina is in the same boat. They will blitz the run and stack the box early, and though I'd love to be wrong, I think Pete will play right into their hands (ala Miami) before snapping out of it at half time.

 

[HawkWow]

Vegas is not "dumb". They have considered travel, climate, injuries and most importantly...public perception when creating a line.

That doesn't matter anywhere near as much as most people think it does. Vegas doesn't create odds based on who they think will win, they create odds and adjust them as the game gets closer to even out the betting, to make themselves as likely to win as often as possible.

With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

If you read my entire post, you will see I never said Vegas sets the line based on who Vegas thinks will win (!?)...you would also see that I said they adjust the line based on incoming action. This incoming action, by definition, IS public perception.

I have made book and set lines for better than 25 years. This is a rather serious subject and I encourage you to get your facts straight before arguing accurate information.