Seattle favored by 3 over Carolina

[kearly]

Vegas puts the line initially where they think it makes the most sense, but the ultimate goal is to get an equal number of people betting on both sides of the line, so it will of course move based purely on public perception.

 

[Tech Worlds]

I cant believe it is only 3.

This team is not going to come out and lay an egg to start the season. Not after all the buildup. Pete will have these guys ready to dominate.

 

[HawkWow]

Vegas puts the line initially where they think it makes the most sense, but the ultimate goal is to get an equal number of people betting on both sides of the line, so it will of course move based purely on public perception.

Exactly. The initial line is published with the belief it will get equal action from both sides. The line will then adjust accordingly (if necessary) thereafter.

The savvy bettor sets his own lines using a rather typical system (can run, can stop run, propensity for take aways. give aways, sacks for and against, turf, injuries, etc, etc). He does this without peeking at Vegas' line (too easy to be distracted by it). Once he has established his own lines, he looks at the Vegas lines, finds a weakness, then exploits that weakness. I typically spend no less than 50 hrs per week searching for that weakness. It's a grind, if done correctly. And still nothing is assured.

 

[loafoftatupu]

I was one of the guys who was very concerned going to AZ last year. Knowing that they would come after the rookie hard, I saw a low scoring game, with little chance of winning while RW got up to speed.

RW picked up the game a lot sooner than I thought though and actually got some offense going. They could have easily won that game, which would have changed everything. While I have my reservations about another 10AM road game to start the season, I am far more confident now than I was then.

Last year, RW threw his only pick 6 of the season, he also had a freak play end up as a pick too. Even with that, he still played good enough to win. That won't happen again, it will be a much cleaner Wilson.

The teams are different yes, but offensively the Hawks are miles ahead of where they were. The Panthers? Their improvement from that time is not something to rave about. I think the Hawks probably win this by 6, but the line is good at 3. If the offense is on? Not even close.

 

[C-Dub]

Should be 23 and not 3. What a joke!!!! Time to go out to the casino and put some money down.

 

[HawkWow]

I was one of the guys who was very concerned going to AZ last year. Knowing that they would come after the rookie hard, I saw a low scoring game, with little chance of winning while RW got up to speed.

RW picked up the game a lot sooner than I thought though and actually got some offense going. They could have easily won that game, which would have changed everything. While I have my reservations about another 10AM road game to start the season, I am far more confident now than I was then.

Last year, RW threw his only pick 6 of the season, he also had a freak play end up as a pick too. Even with that, he still played good enough to win. That won't happen again, it will be a much cleaner Wilson.

The teams are different yes, but offensively the Hawks are miles ahead of where they were. The Panthers? Their improvement from that time is not something to rave about. I think the Hawks probably win this by 6, but the line is good at 3. If the offense is on? Not even close.

Totally agree. I am positive (barring the unforeseen) RW will make Tate a household name by mid-season. We have the best back field in football (IMO) as well as the best secondary in football. This time last year, this young team had no reason to be overly confident....this year, they know who they are and confidence is not exactly in short supply. We might need to keep that in check, though.

We just need to prove we can win consistently on the road. Home? We could win at home with TJack! ; ) Go Hawks!

 

[HawkWow]

Should be 23 and not 3. What a joke!!!! Time to go out to the casino and put some money down.

May luck be on your side.

 

[RolandDeschain]

With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

Public perception is largely irrelevant in the SETTING of the line. Public perception CHANGES the line after it's initially set. Vegas could put out a line right now for 1.25-1 odds that the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl, and it will generate a flood of betting against it. It almost doesn't even MATTER what the initial line is that Vegas sets for most things, because the action they get dictates how it changes after it's set.

 

[HawkWow]

With all respect, I sincerely hope you do not believe public perception does not play a role in the line setting. Such a belief would make you 100% inaccurate.

Public perception is largely irrelevant in the SETTING of the line. Public perception CHANGES the line after it's initially set. Vegas could put out a line right now for 1.25-1 odds that the Seahawks will win the Super Bowl, and it will generate a flood of betting against it. It almost doesn't even MATTER what the initial line is that Vegas sets for most things, because the action they get dictates how it changes after it's set.

Do you think they just pull a number out of a hat...and then let the betting public dictate its swings?

The scariest thing in the world for Vegas is to open with a bad line that gets hammered. IE; They set the line at -3 (instead of let's say-7) smart bettors see that weakness and jump on it..BIG and fast. Vegas is now concerned. Seldom happens, but they may have to go as high as -8 to balance the action. When they do that...those same smart bettors turn around and bet the same amount, but the other way hoping for the middle. Best case, bettor wins BOTH bets...worse case, he loses a paltry 10%.

Vegas don't like that and use a quick checklist to set the opening line. And if you do this as much as I do...you'll see the lines actually change very little. That's becuz they are very good and have a very good idea of what the PUBLIC'S PERCEPTION of this game will be. Watch this weeks lines. You will see very little swing as the bets come in. That's not an accident...that's a solid initial line. I won't discuss this any further.

 

[RolandDeschain]

If you think it's all based on public perception, go see how many games Vegas predicted the Colts to win last year. :roll: I just did, and they were favored six times, and their best line was -5. http://www.footballlocks.com/nfl_lines.shtml The 2012 Colts were arguably one of the 5 most hyped teams for any season in the history of the NFL, and that hype LASTED throughout the year.

The evidence says otherwise, HawkWow. That doesn't mean Vegas doesn't screw up every great once in a while, but their system isn't based on popular perception.

 

[Cartire]

Roland is getting BTFO.

 

[Subzero717]

Who is starting at Leo on Sunday?

Given our history I don't see an issue being favored by only 3. Honestly this game makes me nervous.

 

[Cartire]

Who is starting at Leo on Sunday?

Given our history I don't see an issue being favored by only 3. Honestly this game makes me nervous.

A general rule of thumb in vegas is to award the hometeam with a 3 pt advantage (this isnt the overall spread, its one of the attributes). This rule can change depending on the team (chicago's soldier field enjoys a bigger spread due to its weather that other teams are not used too).

So when we are favored by 3, you can actually think of it as us being favored by 6 on neutral ground. Or by 9 even at home. I'm sure Seattles past road history also plays a factor into it. So the fact that we are still favored should be somewhat uplifting.

 

[RolandDeschain]

Roland is getting BTFO.

No, you just want me to be. How cute.

 

[Cartire]

Roland is getting BTFO.

No, you just want me to be. How cute.

Ahh pandering. The true last ditch effort to feel superior.

 

[RolandDeschain]

I don't think you know what "pandering" really means.

 

[C-Dub]

Who is starting at Leo on Sunday?

Given our history I don't see an issue being favored by only 3. Honestly this game makes me nervous.

If the Panthers game makes you nervous, how do you feel about the 9ers, Texans, Saints, Giants, and Falcons games?

 

[Subzero717]

Who is starting at Leo on Sunday?

Given our history I don't see an issue being favored by only 3. Honestly this game makes me nervous.

If the Panthers game makes you nervous, how do you feel about the 9ers, Texans, Saints, Giants, and Falcons games?

Same. Difference being this is a game we are supposed to win without any thought about it. Especially if Clem and Avril aren't 100%. As of now I haven't heard either are ready to play.