nsport
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- Joined
- Apr 25, 2009
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Argh! I was going to bed... now I can't go because this is killing me slowly.
For your first point and second point it's simple market economics. They all gravitate towards the ATS number because when you bet or analyze with bias eventually both sides get a fair shake over time. If you do this for 10 weeks, you'll see that certain teams will cover 8 of 10. But if you do it for 10 seasons, it's going to be near 50%. The demographics of people betting their money on games comes with supply and demand. This all plays out in a macrocosm way, but you are inferring it is a microcosm. I am inferring that there are direct market influences that affect the spread. As a matter of fact, a fighter did exactly what you said and bet on himself at Bodog. I don't know exactly what it did to the traditional books, but I guarantee you it affected Bodog's line. How could it not!!? The book would have never taken the bet otherwise - I would bet (no pun intended) that they actually benefited from it due to the market condition of "look how famous we are, come bet at Bodog" factor - which probably ALSO moved the lines slightly. You forget also that the fat bettors that are indeed out there are not the "sharps" you refer to, but are whales that are about as stupid as the average bettor. Don't forget the seedy underworld of real-time information that also moves lines. Don't be naive man. This is the real world. The sharps are in the minority. The rest of the public says "oh wow, look the line moved a point, I'm going to chase it" - I've seen that so many times my head spins. This whole notion of sharps is plain stupid. Professional bettors scour a board of 250 games every weekend to find 4 or 5 good ones. The only reason this game is relevant is it is competing with Thursday/Friday NCAAF so more money will statistically be bet on this game since it's on prime time network and the only NFL game. Yes... that's a market influence that will affect the betting public. Believe me - this is MACROCOSM of MARKET ECONOMICS and STATISTICS. That's it buddy. That's it.
For your first point and second point it's simple market economics. They all gravitate towards the ATS number because when you bet or analyze with bias eventually both sides get a fair shake over time. If you do this for 10 weeks, you'll see that certain teams will cover 8 of 10. But if you do it for 10 seasons, it's going to be near 50%. The demographics of people betting their money on games comes with supply and demand. This all plays out in a macrocosm way, but you are inferring it is a microcosm. I am inferring that there are direct market influences that affect the spread. As a matter of fact, a fighter did exactly what you said and bet on himself at Bodog. I don't know exactly what it did to the traditional books, but I guarantee you it affected Bodog's line. How could it not!!? The book would have never taken the bet otherwise - I would bet (no pun intended) that they actually benefited from it due to the market condition of "look how famous we are, come bet at Bodog" factor - which probably ALSO moved the lines slightly. You forget also that the fat bettors that are indeed out there are not the "sharps" you refer to, but are whales that are about as stupid as the average bettor. Don't forget the seedy underworld of real-time information that also moves lines. Don't be naive man. This is the real world. The sharps are in the minority. The rest of the public says "oh wow, look the line moved a point, I'm going to chase it" - I've seen that so many times my head spins. This whole notion of sharps is plain stupid. Professional bettors scour a board of 250 games every weekend to find 4 or 5 good ones. The only reason this game is relevant is it is competing with Thursday/Friday NCAAF so more money will statistically be bet on this game since it's on prime time network and the only NFL game. Yes... that's a market influence that will affect the betting public. Believe me - this is MACROCOSM of MARKET ECONOMICS and STATISTICS. That's it buddy. That's it.