San fran opens as 7 point favs

[kmedic]

Hey we're coming off a great win but let's not kid ourselves, SF is a pretty good team. It is going to be a tall order to beat them let alone keep within a TD. They are pissed as hell getting embarrassed on national TV by the Gnats. Chances are Harbaugh isn't going to let that happen 2 weeks in a row.

Don't get me wrong, I think we have a decent chance of pulling out a victory but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if we got blown out too coming off a huge emotional win over the Pats.

 

[JSeahawks]

I'm certainly no gambling expert or anything but I would assume that the home team has a greater advantage on a Thursday game then they would on a Sunday game. Just the short week, lack of preparation, one extra day of not having to travel, and all that stuff.

 

[nsport]

It's a pretty fair line. HFA is worth 3 points in the betting market. Being a home team on a Thursday night game is probably worth a couple more points. This line looks like the 49ers would be favored by about 2-3 against the Hawks on a neutral field, which seems fair at this point. If this was a Sunday game, it wouldn't be a 7 point line.

The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle does. Therefore, the number has to be set where Vegas feels they can get a fairly equal number of bettors on either side - that way they take "the vig" no matter who wins. If you could earn 5% on your money every week, you'd do it to. Just good economics.

This is wrong. If you could earn 0 half of the weeks, and 20% on your money the other half of the weeks, that is better economics than earning 5% every week. Also, a fairly equal number of betters doesn't mean a fairly equal amount of money being wagered on each side. A hundred $10 bets on one side have the same impact as one $1000 bet on the other side. Sportsbooks can never assume that they will get an even amount of money on both sides of a given event. Say the MGM or whatever casino actually gets a near even amount of money on both sides throughout the week. Then Floyd Mayweather comes in 30 minutes before kickoff and places a $500,000 bet on one side. Now what? The key to sportsbooks making money consistently is setting accurate lines, which they do. If the lines aren't accurate, the sharp bettors will exploit them and win in the long run.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding your position, but I was simplifying the concept for the crowds who don't know that much about it. The game is inflated due to three factors: First, the 49ers have owned the Seahawks. 2nd, it's one game on one night and they will take more money than usual on this game than they would if it was lumped in with 14 other games on Sunday. And 3rd, they have really good analysis of betting and actual sports trending that gets them really close to the actual result. The casual fan will bet with their heart, the exploitation you talk about happens ALL THE TIME. You see those numbers move at the last minute most frequently in horses and boxing, but it happens in football, too. Trust me - those guys are taking millions and guaranteeing themselves cash on every transaction. They could give a rats ass if you make $200 - what they want is the extra $20 when someone loses $200. It all evens out - and they make money big time.

And yes, I'm right about the 5%. If they take $110/100 on each side, they take $220. One guy loses his bet and gives up $110. The other guy wins his bet and is returned $210. That's $10 net profit for the casino. 5% of take. I'm talking about the house's take. And yes, they move the lines depending on how many people bet on a particular game - this is done over the course of the season. There are games they win big time, and those they lose big time, but it all evens out. They never lose, man.

 

[nsport]

Yea - what I'm saying is the line is not personal... but I can see how a team or fan could take it personal due to the fact that there is no confidence in bettors that we could win our game. My gut says take the 7 and make some dough!

 

[XxxZagnutxxX]

Whatever happens I'd take the under on this one.

 

[HawkWow]

Whatever happens I'd take the under on this one.

They've got that bugger set very tight. 37 is a relatively low O/U and while both Ds are fantastic, both offenses should be clicking at this point in the season. It was apparent PC is putting more trust in our Rook and allowing him to throw down field. That could score more pts for us...or against us. The under may be the way to go, but SF can score. Their lacklustre offensive display yesterday was anticipated and explainable. It's a phenomenom (sp?) that happens only a few times a year, league-wide.

I won't go into all the reasons why (here) but there were several key indicators that predicted they would fall to the NYG (or any other team they might have played yesterday) at least vs the spread. I have sworn off betting after it became more lifestyle than fun, but I am kicking myself in the a$$ for not getting some of that very easy money won betting against the 9ers yersterday.

I will end this by saying that is not going to happen with the 9ers again anytime soon. We will have to have our A+ game to beat their B+ game on their turf this Thursday. Since my last post, I've (just for fun) crunched a few pertinent numbers and I am less confident now than I was prior to doing the numbers. It's going to be a tough one but great teams find ways to win such games. Thursday will help us learn whether we are great...or just very good. GO HAWKS!

 

[jewhawk]

And yes, I'm right about the 5%. If they take $110/100 on each side, they take $220. One guy loses his bet and gives up $110. The other guy wins his bet and is returned $210. That's $10 net profit for the casino. 5% of take. I'm talking about the house's take.

You misunderstood my point. I know what the vig is. My point is they're taking 5% on every bet regardless of how many bets are made on either side. You seem to understand this is the case when you said, two sentences later:

There are games they win big time, and those they lose big time, but it all evens out. They never lose, man.

Which of course is true. So naturally, it doesn't matter if they get even money on both sides or if they lose money on one game because the books will win over the course of the season. What matters is consistently setting accurate lines over the course of the season to minimize the ability of the sharps to exploit the lines.

And yes, they move the lines depending on how many people bet on a particular game - this is done over the course of the season.

No, it doesn't matter how many people bet on a particular game. What matters is the amount of money being wagered. We opened as 5 point underdogs to New England last week and it moved to 3.5 by game day. You think there were more people betting on the Seahawks than the Patriots? There weren't. But for every casual bettor putting his $20 on the Patriots, there were sharps putting significantly more on the Hawks at +5. The public doesn't move the betting lines; the sharps do. Even if it's true, as you said, that “the 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle,” that has no relevance to the betting line.

 

[nsport]

No, it doesn't matter how many people bet on a particular game. What matters is the amount of money being wagered. We opened as 5 point underdogs to New England last week and it moved to 3.5 by game day. You think there were more people betting on the Seahawks than the Patriots? There weren't. But for every casual bettor putting his $20 on the Patriots, there were sharps putting significantly more on the Hawks at +5. The public doesn't move the betting lines; the sharps do. Even if it's true, as you said, that “the 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than Seattle,” that has no relevance to the betting line.

Don't be a Richard Cranium. You know just what I mean - not sure why you're twisting my words... Let me be as explicit as possible, so we can put this boring thread to bed:

Fact (I think we agree on): Money moves the lines.
Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money
Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.
Fact: Whether that translates into more money bet on either team given the opening spread will determine which way the line moves.
Fact: You're technically correct based on my word choice that it's not the number of bets, it's the total wagered. But no need to be snarky. Sheesh - you act like your team just lost to the sissy Patriots.

 

[jewhawk]

Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.

This has nothing to do with the betting line. If this were the case, the league's more popular teams would historically perform worse against the spread than less popular teams. But every team approaches .500 against the spread historically.

Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money

Online sportsbooks profile their bettors and weigh bets from known sharps heavier when considering line movements. Also, sharps generally bet much larger sums than amateurs.

 

[HawkWow]

I've never heard the word "sharps" used in the context you are using it. Do you mean to say whales? Or are you referring to "smart money" bettors. Don't pay too much attention to that term. It's a term usually bestowed upon late bettors. That don't necessarily make them smart...just late.

As both myself and nsport continue to tell you, all Vegas wants to do is balance their books. Period. I don't want to beat this to death or desire to be all knowing, but gambling is a serious matter and this thread is about that. We need to present only facts or end the discussion.

Knowing a little about gambling is like knowing a little about flying airplanes. In fact, here's some great, free advice; if you can't fly an airplane...don't gamble.

 

[nsport]

Speculation: SF has more bettors interested in betting for the 49ers than the Seahawks - if they didn't, the line would be 3 or 3.5 - maybe an extra 1 or 2 points in their favor due to their recent dominance of us.

This has nothing to do with the betting line. If this were the case, the league's more popular teams would historically perform worse against the spread than less popular teams. But every team approaches .500 against the spread historically.

Fact: "Sharp" money is the same as "amateur" money

Online sportsbooks profile their bettors and weigh bets from known sharps heavier when considering line movements. Also, sharps generally bet much larger sums than amateurs.

It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it. Do you not believe me?? Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road - and I've seen it make guy's years getting that extra point or two. The reason that line moved is because somebody got tipped off or a bunch of Seahawks fans were staying in that hotel, or a big whale showed up who loves the Niners. Who cares!? There's money to be made for smart bettors - but the books don't care either way. It's statistically in their favor. Period.

 

[MeanBlueGreen]

Oct. 18 Seattle
5:25 p.m. at San Francisco
Favorite SFO SFO SFO
Point spread -7 -7 -7
Total 37½o/u 38o/u 37½o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

http://www.vegas.com/gaming/


:49ersmall:

I think it's right. Might come down to 6 or 5 by gametime. Niners are pissed and the Seahawks may be emotionally soft from the Pats win. Plus its a road game

 

[jewhawk]

I've never heard the word "sharps" used in the context you are using it. Do you mean to say whales? Or are you referring to "smart money" bettors. Don't pay too much attention to that term. It's a term usually bestowed upon late bettors. That don't necessarily make them smart...just late.

“Sharps” = smart money bettors. It has nothing to do with late bettors, and I have no idea where you got that impression.

As both myself and nsport continue to tell you, all Vegas wants to do is balance their books. Period. I don't want to beat this to death or desire to be all knowing, but gambling is a serious matter and this thread is about that. We need to present only facts or end the discussion.

You're missing the point that the books can't completely balance the action on both sides. If a couple rich guys come in and bet a few million on one side, then unless it's a super high profile event like the Super Bowl, the book will take a loss on that game if the rich guys' side wins. It's unavoidable, but it doesn't matter because those types of bets even out in the long run. They don't have to (and can't) make a profit on every single line offered.

The key to sportsbooks making a profit in the long run is setting accurate lines that the sharps can't exploit. If the lines are not exploitable, then in the long run the sportsbooks will win at the rate of the vig.

Knowing a little about gambling is like knowing a little about flying airplanes. In fact, here's some great, free advice; if you can't fly an airplane...don't gamble.

You probably shouldn't take this insulting tone in a thread about gambling when you don't even know the definition of a simple word like “sharps.” Especially when you are wrong.

 

[jewhawk]

It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

I have no idea what you're asking. Is the question how the sportsbooks determine the opening lines? If so, they have handicappers who analyze databases full of historical stats, trends, and information on every player and every team. There is a lot more information going into handicapping than a few people making predictions.

It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it.

I can't tell how much of this is sarcasm. Are you disagreeing that every team gravitates toward 50% ATS?

Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road

This is flat out wrong. The only way you're ever getting a 2-3 point difference on a game in two different casinos is if it's something like -3 (-125) at one casino and -5 (+130) at another, and there isn't much difference between those odds. You're never, ever, ever going to find a 2-3 point difference on the standard -110 line at two different casinos on the same NFL game.

 

[nsport]

It's a lot out of hand... how pray tell do you open the line then?

I have no idea what you're asking. Is the question how the sportsbooks determine the opening lines? If so, they have handicappers who analyze databases full of historical stats, trends, and information on every player and every team. There is a lot more information going into handicapping than a few people making predictions.

It's sooooo simple. I'm surprised it's lost on you. You make some valid points about the line moving and the fact that the ATS stat gravitates toward 50%. Yea! It does! Because they are fantastic at statistical analysis and opening their eyes, just like bettors and just like "sharps". You are totally delusional if you think you are right. It's a word game with you and that's it.

I can't tell how much of this is sarcasm. Are you disagreeing that every team gravitates toward 50% ATS?

Go to Atlantic City and bet on the Arizona Cardinals, then go to Vegas. They will be DIFFERENT lines as you roll through the different betting regions. Your "sharps" I have seen 100 times drive like a bat out of hell to chase down a 2 or 3 point difference in a game at the casino down the road

This is flat out wrong. The only way you're ever getting a 2-3 point difference on a game in two different casinos is if it's something like -3 (-125) at one casino and -5 (+130) at another, and there isn't much difference between those odds. You're never, ever, ever going to find a 2-3 point difference on the standard -110 line at two different casinos on the same NFL game.

Well, it's laughable at this point. Now you are arguing with two people. So funny, dude. Seriously - you're bent and misleading people big time and apparently not reading posts. I can summarize ONE MORE TIME - then I'm done. As a matter of fact, maybe a mod can lock this post when I'm done.

1: Lines are set based on a NUMBER of factors - some you are correct on some of them. I won't argue all of your points as flat wrong, even though you seem certain we are all wrong. Some I can just round the point for you as a benefit - these factors include recent history between teams, injuries, home/away, time of day, type of field, etc. - They even add the rumor mill and and eyeball test. The stat gurus consider dozens of aspects before they release a line - including how much they think the betting public favors a team. All of these things and more determine the opening lines.
2: Lines move based upon the dollar amount bet in that current house. This goes for online wagering as well. Don't be foolish or naive. This is how it has always been.
3: Informed bettors know where the best line values are. Yes, I have seen with my own eyes, people racing out of Caesars and bolting down to MGM to get a couple points. It happens! The same is true of books - if they are flooded with everyone moving one way on a game - that specific book will move their line to entice bettors the other way. And yes, you are correct that sometimes they change -110 to another less favorable number. The bettor assist himself by buying points as well.
4: I will even add that some houses might even move a line a 1/2 point or a point to entice bettors to their house! You bet! It's called marketing!

So again - Jewhawk - don't be naive or press your point any further. This is how it is... If you must know I used to run a service and I've seen it all.

To further illustrate my point, I think there is still a tool for sale somewhere where somebody had some software that tracked all the lines for all the sports and taught you how to play reversed lines globally in online sports books so you would win based on the lay number and the different spreads - like one team favored in a book, and another book had it the other way. Well if you lay enough money, you basically take home the vig and/or double-up your bets. Dude - I totally know what I'm talking about... time to put down the keyboard.

 

[Seeker]

Guess whose putting money up on this game.
this guy!!!!

 

[chawx]

I'm putting $1 billion of Paul Allen's money on the Seahawks at (+7) .... pssht it's a no brainer, are you kidding me Vegas?

 

[AnchoviesofTerror]

am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?

 

[nsport]

am i wierd for reading this whole thread even though i understood about 10% of it...?

Post of the day. Thank you kind sir for the levity.

 

[jewhawk]

Nsport- I'll ask again because you still haven't answered: do you agree with my statement that every team approaches 50% ATS historically? If so, then how is that the case if popular teams like the 49ers have more people wanting to bet on them than less popular teams like the Seahawks? Wouldn't you expect the more popular teams to get less favorable lines because people would bet on them anyway, and the result would be the more popular teams performing worse ATS? That isn't the case, though, because the lines are very accurate and not influenced by things like “The 49ers take a lot more bets in Vegas than the Seahawks.”

1: Lines are set based on a NUMBER of factors - some you are correct on some of them. I won't argue all of your points as flat wrong, even though you seem certain we are all wrong. Some I can just round the point for you as a benefit - these factors include recent history between teams, injuries, home/away, time of day, type of field, etc. - They even add the rumor mill and and eyeball test. The stat gurus consider dozens of aspects before they release a line - including how much they think the betting public favors a team. All of these things and more determine the opening lines.

This is correct, and I never said otherwise.

2: Lines move based upon the dollar amount bet in that current house. This goes for online wagering as well. Don't be foolish or naive. This is how it has always been.
3: Informed bettors know where the best line values are. Yes, I have seen with my own eyes, people racing out of Caesars and bolting down to MGM to get a couple points. It happens! The same is true of books - if they are flooded with everyone moving one way on a game - that specific book will move their line to entice bettors the other way. And yes, you are correct that sometimes they change -110 to another less favorable number. The bettor assist himself by buying points as well.

This is where you are wrong. If Floyd Mayweather bets $1 million on the 49ers at Caesar's, and Charles Barkley bets $1 million on the Seahawks at MGM, it's not going to result in Caesar's moving the line to 7.5 and MGM moving it to 6.5. The lines are roughly the same at every casino.

The point you're missing is that sportsbooks can't just move the line and get equal action. For example, say -7 is a fair line for this game. Then say a group of extremely rich Seahawks fans go to Vegas tomorrow and collectively bet several million dollars on the Seahawks at the MGM. If they move the line a couple points to entice more 49ers bets to even out the money, the sharps would pound the line at 49ers -5. Then the casino would be stuck in an awful spot where if the 49ers won by 5-7 points, the casino would take a huge loss. Instead, the casino would leave the line at 7 and only take a loss if the Seahawks cover, but making a big profit if the 49ers cover. It wouldn't hurt the casino to take that loss, however, because if the lines are accurate, those situations will even out over the long run.