Russell Wilson Dead Last in 3rd dwn Passing Efficiency!!

[scutterhawk]

In the early days of Russ, I enjoyed watching our third-down plays. Now I almost expect that we're not going to convert. It's just so frustrating.

Sigh..

Yeah, those 2012-2013 years of Russ just killing it with the read option, 10 yard routes to Doug and scrambling for 20 yard gains frequently on 3rd down seem to be a distant memory. That's also before DB's had his pirouette down and were playing him to step up instead of turn out. Dang, we were a juggernaut. I love watching old games, like the Chicago game or when we dismantled the Bills in Toronoto, but it's a litte depressing now TBH. Man we had a good team back then.

A more completed picture would include Marshawn Lynch, & the reason Defenses couldn't just key on Wilson.
Without even a mediocre Running attack, it ALL dumps back onto Wilsons' lap, & calls for some changes in Offensive schemes, Defenses are playing his tendencies to hang onto the ball too long, he needs to get the ball out quicker.

 

[John63]

Here is one what if they do execute but the play call and design is so bad it does not matter? Or what if the million dollar players on the other side know whats comming because we are so predictable? Amazing how many different things can go on. Here is another idea why not u go show them.how to do it.

I agree they can be more creative in their play design, but at the end of the day, it almost always comes down to execution.

I mean that flea flicker was unpredictable right? But badly executed.

And when was the last time we saw the wildcat convert for a first down? That was well-executed.

Missed open receivers all over the field, despite clean pockets to step into? Yeah, that's badly-executed.

As the Patriots coaches would say, just do your job.

but again you are forgetting that the other tam is also doing their jobs, and also million dollar players and since most of the time, everyone knows what's coming it puts us in a hole. THis problem is more about the play design than anything, You cant execute when the other team knows what's comming.

Again, it's about execution and 3rd down specifically.

You talk about 3rd and longs? How about 3rd and 2? You got a wide open Gerald Everett on the out for an easy first down. Yet you throw the ball deep to a double-covered DK for the incompletion.

That has nothing to do with predictability. That's on execution, period.

wow, you found one time, so that must mean it happens all the time right? LOL

 

[Jville]

In the early days of Russ, I enjoyed watching our third-down plays. Now I almost expect that we're not going to convert. It's just so frustrating.

Sigh..

Yeah, those 2012-2013 years of Russ just killing it with the read option, 10 yard routes to Doug and scrambling for 20 yard gains frequently on 3rd down seem to be a distant memory. That's also before DB's had his pirouette down and were playing him to step up instead of turn out. Dang, we were a juggernaut. I love watching old games, like the Chicago game or when we dismantled the Bills in Toronoto, but it's a litte depressing now TBH. Man we had a good team back then.

A more completed picture would include Marshawn Lynch, & the reason Defenses couldn't just key on Wilson.
Without even a mediocre Running attack, it ALL dumps back onto Wilsons' lap, & calls for some changes in Offensive schemes, Defenses are playing his tendencies to hang onto the ball too long, he needs to get the ball out quicker.

Well, perhaps Chandler Jones can motivate him to get the ball on its way sooner. Although, Chandler might just as easily rattle him to the degree than the ball comes down into the hands of Budda Baker and/or team mates. One can learn a lot from opponents. And, they are certainly looking forward to the match up.

I so dearly miss the team play and execution of past seasons.

 

[nwHawk]

Lots of other stats to look at and analyze if anyone cares to consider the alternative. After churning through numerous stats, does Russ still even fit what Pete wants? I’d say Waldron does, but Russ? Not sure about that one.

Thanks for sharing Seymour. Great find.

 

[hoxrox]

This can be a symptom of a pass happy team, but there's also an offsetting benefit which many don't talk about in the form of fewer third downs total. If we pick up a big chunk play with a bomb to DK then that's 4-5 third downs we didn't need to convert along the way, and the fewer third downs you have the fewer opportunities for the defense to make a stop in the first place.

Conversely, if you are at the top of third down efficiency then you're probably running the ball a ton and facing shorter third downs as a result. But even if they are all 3rd and 1 and you convert 67% of them then the number of times you are looking at third down will still lead to a punt more often than a score.

One benefit to the second sort of offense is that it does help keep your defense off the field and the TOP from getting too uneven. That doesn't mean third down efficiency is the right metric to chase. Scoring is not only what we care about more, but allows you to fairly compare a downfield passing attack with a dink and dunk offense. Which scores more?

The offense that can consistently bypass the third down altogether and convert on 2nd or even 1st down scores more. But this is more difficult to achieve, and has a lower success rate, usually resulting in a boom or bust offense.

Whereas a sustained dink and dunk drive is usually demoralizing and tiring to a defense, which could help with more scores on subsequent drives, while limiting an opponents scoring opportunities.

It's not really one OR the other though. My approach would be both. Take bigger risks early and often WHILE the clock is on your side. 3-and-outs aren't as bad in the first quarter when the score is relatively even. 3 and outs, while down in the 4th, and the clock is against you, is another matter.

 

[IndyHawk]

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

I'm shocked you would post this big guy...
I think your eyes are opening up some and that's ok-better
than never..I hate to see it myself but I was seeing the
cracks and through the illusion a while back.When he
can't run or won't like he used to and doesn't use the
underneath routes it's like giving candy out to the opposing
D..They have no fear.

 

[Seymour]

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

I'm shocked you would post this big guy...
I think your eyes are opening up some and that's ok-better
than never..I hate to see it myself but I was seeing the
cracks and through the illusion a while back.When he
can't run or won't like he used to and doesn't use the
underneath routes it's like giving candy out to the opposing
D..They have no fear.

I've always been critical about Russ when there is clear criticisms to be made. No, my "eyes aren't opening some", this just started this year. He averages 60% on 3rd downs years prior, and something is amiss THIS year. Not the last 10 like some want to believe. :roll:

His career numbers are indisputable. And no, that doesn't mean he has no weaknesses, he just has less than most QB's.

 

[John63]

I suspected this but heard a segment on it today that confirmed this. Russ ranks #34 out of 34 in 3rd down passing efficiency at 40.6%. That is why we cannot control the clock and move the sticks (in part at least). 3rd and long is contributing as well, but is what it is. Russell is no longer Mr. Clutch when we need him to be.

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/nfl/player-splits/passing/third-down/2021?sort=passpct

I'm shocked you would post this big guy...
I think your eyes are opening up some and that's ok-better
than never..I hate to see it myself but I was seeing the
cracks and through the illusion a while back.When he
can't run or won't like he used to and doesn't use the
underneath routes it's like giving candy out to the opposing
D..They have no fear.

I've always been critical about Russ when there is clear criticisms to be made. No, my "eyes aren't opening some", this just started this year. He averages 60% on 3rd downs years prior, and something is amiss THIS year. Not the last 10 like some want to believe. :roll:

His career numbers are indisputable. And no, that doesn't mean he has no weaknesses, he just has less than most QB's.

this^^^

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

It's not just 3rd down either he's dead last in intermediate throws 10-19 yards .

 

[AlbaHawk]

Mentioned again today and evident so far. Is this the QB or the OC. I can't tell.