meh it feels like everyone cherry picks this to fit their narrative. Sure in volume stats Denver is low. efficiency stats they’re much higher. I think Russ and Geno are very close in EPA. He’s also made some incredible touchdowns, Game winning drives(as has Geno too) and his EPA actually goes up late in games which could point to a play calling early in games and matches the eye test too. He will never run a conventional offense that is true, and Stidham will do better in this regard. But this is always painted as a massive flaw of Wilson’s by default which is odd. Lamar won’t either but most love his game. Kap didn’t either but he was good enough to get to a SB. Vick didn’t, Cam didn’t, Hurts etc.
You said “‘Most stats that show perfamnce are bottom 6-8 which isn’t true. The ones you’ve decided do that guy that’s subjective and anything that doesn’t fit that narrative is discarded like passer rating, EPA, TD/Int numbers etc. how about points per game? Denver is higher than Seattle.
Again not trying to be snarky and I enjoy your thoughts on this topic but I think we’re all a little guilty of cherry picking stats to support our priors.
I actuslly didn't cherry pick anything. I picked from the metrics available that tie most directly to qb play in the offense on the site that I happened to be on (categorized at the bottom of that page). And i was turned onto to those from Denver fans who are frustrated with the ineptitude of their offense.
There are more qb specific stats like pass success rate which direclty correlate to the QB success within the context of a play down, guven the number of yards gained vs expected per down. That would be a pretty important stat, wouldn't it? Russ is 20th. (For comparison, Geno is 8th).
Yards per attempt? Important, no? Russ is 20th again, Geno 13th. This one important to note given this year we've seen a Russ playing largely on-script. It points to a qb throwing short, high percentage passes (hence the comp percentage).
Yards per catch? Russ is 22nd, Geno, 14th. Same as the above
Qbr, which of the 2 metrics is the better measure of overall qb performance (in my opinion) because it takes into account more factors... Russ is 21st. Geno 14th. Again. Do you have an idea how bad Russ has to be performing in categories other than TDs and completion percentage for his QBR to deviate by almost 50 points from his Rating?? (That variation is btw the largest in the league). Typically this year the deviation is around 30 to 35 when you look at the top passers, with a few outliers like Purdy because his rating is so high to begin with.
Net yards per attempt - Russ is 22nd, Geno 15th.
Agree that Geno is having a down year, but he's gone from good to average / good. Russ has gone from abysmal, to, when you take into account offensive performance, his QBR (which blends his shiney stats with his crap ones), average to below average.
Thats why the narrative that Russ is playing great or isn't a problem for Denver is what's cherrypicking. There's no other 'top' qb who has the swings he does from the handful of stats he's tops in, to those he's bottom 1/3rd or so in. And that is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt across mutliple stat lines and captured in his qbr. And it's a simple fact that if he's bottom 3rd in that many measures it can't NOT negatively impact his offense.
And again, this wasn't necessarily a Geno vs Russ argument as much as it was underscoring the metrics which show that the Denver offense is actually not good, and when its flashed, it hasnt done so within the context of the playcall - the reason why Russ was benched. It's great if he's had some great TD passes. He always does. He he also has comeback drives, sure but just as Payton himself said when asked whether he was happy with the comeback drive against the Pats. He responded that it wasn't sustainable because it was a bunch of empty set plays. That knock goes back to his Seattle days. Games that were made better by virtue of his tendency to make things up because he couldnt get things done in a sustainable, reliable way. its just the first time a coach has come out and said it.
When Wilson's 3rd down pass success rate is bottom half of the league for the vast majority of his career, what does that mean? Either he ALWAYS just has poor protection, poor receivers or a poor playcaller, or it's him. When you see his performance in QBR, Success Rate and some of the others I noted above when he's in a conventional offense (the first time hes been forced to play in such a way)and add them to his 3rd down pass rate, it's why he's benched and Geno isn't.
And Russ in a Russ aka unconventional offense? It's the reason he was traded in the first place. He'll get you yards, points (for a half), and highlights, but something to build around? Nope.
Good luck to anyone who picks him up.