Packers FG on 4th and 8 was worst than Seahawk's int SB 49

[Tokadub]

As far as it being funny for Brady winning a bowl without Belicheck I'm not sure I understand how that's funny? I still don't get this hate for Brady. More like jealousy than anything IMO. Dudes a fierce competitor and just wins. Sorry but I like those kind of players.

I think it's funny because from my understanding the Patriots were the ones who kind of gave up on Brady. I think Belicheck was ready to move on, thought Brady was washed up...

Brady was like "No I can still play..." and now he's in the Super Bowl.

If I'm wrong about that and Brady was the main reason he left New England then it's less funny though.

 

[chris98251]

The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think the analytics are based on the averages of every scenario that has occurred in the NFL...

I heard the stats this morning it's like 10.5% if they go for it and like 9.5% if they don't go for it? Not sure exactly... but even with the analytics the right move was to go for it...

I think all the analytics prove is that they were unlikely to win in every scenario...

But I don't think the analytics account for having the MVP QB, arguably one of the best QB's of all time and their Super Bowl window is on the line...

First of all most teams that are behind by 8 in that situation in NFL history are bad teams, mediocre QB's etc...

So if you analyze the average outcomes of those situations of course the outcomes look bad both ways...

We are a LONG way from being able to provide analytics based on specific team vs team match ups, how good the QB is, etc...

That's my opinion, I'm fine with anyone who disagrees but from my understanding analytics are based on averages and statistics of those averages... Aaron Rodgers is not average so I don't think analytics are accurate... even the questionable analytics slightly favored going for it.

That's the problem with Analytics, if you used them in every situation Wilson probably would never have a 4th quarter come back nor Rodgers, which was a shame, that's how he built his reputation.

 

[Maelstrom787]

The FG call wasn't that bad. Even the analytic bots that people expected to roast LaFleur spit out soft recommendations to go for it, it was basically a toss-up.

Maybe I'm wrong but I think the analytics are based on the averages of every scenario that has occurred in the NFL...

I heard the stats this morning it's like 10.5% if they go for it and like 9.5% if they don't go for it? Not sure exactly... but even with the analytics the right move was to go for it...

I think all the analytics prove is that they were unlikely to win in every scenario...

But I don't think the analytics account for having the MVP QB, arguably one of the best QB's of all time and their Super Bowl window is on the line...

First of all most teams that are behind by 8 in that situation in NFL history are bad teams, mediocre QB's etc...

So if you analyze the average outcomes of those situations of course the outcomes look bad both ways...

We are a LONG way from being able to provide analytics based on specific team vs team match ups, how good the QB is, etc...

That's my opinion, I'm fine with anyone who disagrees but from my understanding analytics are based on averages and statistics of those averages... Aaron Rodgers is not average so I don't think analytics are accurate... even the questionable analytics slightly favored going for it.

That's why we use several models, like I did above.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/AudacityOfHoops/status/1353615016835117056[/tweet]

Rodgers had his chances and missed each one. So they kick it, have 3 time outs and over 2 minutes left, and go up against a completely noodle-armed Tom Brady. Brady couldn't hit the broadside of a barn with any velocity the entire second half, and honestly, if Kevin King didn't pull off an all-time blunder, the third down pass was sailing away too, predictably.

If we wanna talk about human factors that would decide the way to go on an analytic tossup, Brady's dead arm was a great reason to kick. Why hedge it all on a conversion that, historically, has a fair amount less than 50% probability of success?

Judging process over hindsight, kicking was right, and it almost worked. You need a stop no matter what, might as well be in a position to win instead of the likely outcome of only being able to tie IF you score AND hit on a coin-flip 2 pt conversion.

 

[getnasty]

It was a horrible call and i would say no doubt worse then throwing the ball in 49 but Seahawks fan will never agree with you because it wasn't the SB and even if the Packers go for it they still need a 2 pt conversion to tie.

With that said you go for it on 4th and if you don't get it you have the Bucs pinned with 4 chamces to stop the clock. Bizarre to say the least but whatever.

 

[NJlargent]

Nothing is worse than the Play. While I know everyone claims Lynch is not automatic there, NE goal line defense was far from stellar that season.

Going for it on 4th down was the better call for the Packers IMO. But, either way, I do not think they would have won. The Play had a much bigger impact of the game.

Hopefully the Packers also lose relevancy over the next 6 years. Although they did cut bait with their deadbeat coach when it was needed.

 

[Appyhawk]

The thing that is wrong with the OP is that GB's FG call was NOT worse than our SB int. Our SB int ended the game and our chance at the repeat. GB's FG call, while not what I would have done, still left them with options in the game.

 

[themunn]

Rodgers already squandered 3 chances from the 8 yard line to score, what would another do? Even then they still need to convert the 2 points just to tie and need another score to win (or not lose, if they fail the conversion). AND in any case they need to stop Brady from marching up the field and scoring a FG with 2 minutes left.

On the other hand, in the 4 previous drives Brady had thrown 3 interceptions and scored one FG.

The real villain of the piece for the Packers is the THREE defensive penalties they had in the first 6 plays Tampa Bay ran after they got the ball back. Though never mind the fact that after the 2nd and 3rd Brady interceptions the Packers ran two 3 and outs totalling -5 yards.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

An absolutely putrid decision to kick a FG. Barely 2 minutes left and you're gonna' give the ball back to Tom Brady?
You have to go for it on 4th down, period. Even if you don't make it, you still have 3 timeouts and the 2 minute warning and you have them pinned deep.

At least in 49 the defender made a great play. They didn't even TRY to tie the game up there, ridiculous.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Rodgers already squandered 3 chances from the 8 yard line to score, what would another do? Even then they still need to convert the 2 points just to tie and need another score to win (or not lose, if they fail the conversion). AND in any case they need to stop Brady from marching up the field and scoring a FG with 2 minutes left.

On the other hand, in the 4 previous drives Brady had thrown 3 interceptions and scored one FG.

The real villain of the piece for the Packers is the THREE defensive penalties they had in the first 6 plays Tampa Bay ran after they got the ball back. Though never mind the fact that after the 2nd and 3rd Brady interceptions the Packers ran two 3 and outs totalling -5 yards.

This. Analytically, the call was either/or. Situationally, the field goal was the better bet.

Tom Brady's noodle arm was on full display late in that game, and if King's grabbing wasn't as obvious as a loud wet fart in a quiet church, his last pass was sailing away too.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

3 straight horrible decisions by Brady. Well, Rodgers went 3 and out on 2 of those 3. That's not clutch at all in my book.

 

[Maelstrom787]

3 straight horrible decision by Brady. Well, Rodgers went 3 and out on 2 of those 3. That's not clutch at all in my book.

That's exactly why I was in favor of kicking it. 4th and goal on the 8, plus a two point conversion, just to tie and go to OT IF my defense can stop them? No way, give me the field goal and I'll take my chances on defense with 3 time outs plus the 2 minute warning.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Give the ball back to the GOAT? No way. Horrible call. They could have went for it and still had them pinned deep even if they don't make it. A field goal accomplished absolutely nothing. And not trusting an all time great QB to get a touchdown on 4th and goal?? Brutal
Brady is the most clutch QB we have ever seen, especially in the playoffs.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Give the ball back to the GOAT? No way. Horrible call. They could have went for it and still had them pinned deep even if they don't make it. A field goal accomplished absolutely nothing. And not trusting an all time great QB to get a touchdown on 4th and goal?? Brutal
Brady is the most clutch QB we have ever seen, especially in the playoffs.

You're giving it back to the GOAT anyway. You're just getting points that set you up far better than you would be if you failed to convert (very likely). Brady was gettin' it back regardless, and GB would've had to stop him no matter what happened.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Green Bay and Rodgers never got the ball back again.

Thus, the Field Goal meant absolutely NOTHING.
And, you needed a TOUCHDOWN. Not a field goal. Even with the Field Goal, what did they need? A touchdown.
4th and 8, with Aaron Rodgers???? And you kick a field goal? Unreal.
If I was a Packers fan I would be beyond angry...…
It's the NFC Championship. You play to WIN. They literally took the ball out of the hands of an all time great QB. That's inexcusable.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

Rodgers already squandered 3 chances from the 8 yard line to score, what would another do? Even then they still need to convert the 2 points just to tie and need another score to win (or not lose, if they fail the conversion). AND in any case they need to stop Brady from marching up the field and scoring a FG with 2 minutes left.

On the other hand, in the 4 previous drives Brady had thrown 3 interceptions and scored one FG.

The real villain of the piece for the Packers is the THREE defensive penalties they had in the first 6 plays Tampa Bay ran after they got the ball back. Though never mind the fact that after the 2nd and 3rd Brady interceptions the Packers ran two 3 and outs totalling -5 yards.

After the FG? I don't recall the third penalty but that first offside was intentional and actually strategic. Tampa was smart throwing on first down knowing there is zero risk if the pass incomplete because the 2 minute warning was upcoming. Without the penalty Green Bay has to start using time outs. if the Bucs get the first down they have to use their first...now Tampa can make them burn 2 more and run the clock down between 3rd and 4th down. By taking the penalty, Thety gave Tampa the first down but still retained their timeouts. They didn't like their chances of stopping Tampa twice from getting a yard which makes sense.

But that doesn't account for the next 2 penalties. I did find it ironic that Green Bay got burned twice in the game by the Rodgers special....quick snap catching the D with 12 men.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

As for 49, I am solidly in the camp that throwing the ball there was not the problem......it was the actual play call. So many options like play action, leak out a TE and give Russ the run throw option or throw it away. But a pass into the middle of the field with your 4 o 5 receiver and relying on Kearse to win physically vs a much bigger person was a terrible idea.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Absolutely ^
Throwing it to a back up, in a very crowded area of the field. Really not smart at all. And, credit where it's due, Butler made a spectacular play.
This has been rehashed 740K times, but if you're not gonna' give it to Lynch on 2nd down, roll Russ out. If nothing is there, have him toss it to the 5th row. Like you said, it's not so much that they called a pass play, it's THAT pass play. WAY too risky imo. And it happened right in front of me at the game, so this is not a great memory.
Had a great time at the Super Bowl, no regrets and I feel extremely fortunate to have been there.
It was a great game with a crap ending. Never been more angry after a game than that particular play.

 

[HawkRiderFan]

Here's what actually bugs me the most about that play afterwards.......the narrative that Bilichcek manipulated Pate into throwing the ball. What a bunch of crap. If that play works, BB is under the gun for not calling a time out and giving Brady time to come back. I have no problem giving the Pats and Belichick credit for what they actually have done. But when ridiculous credit like that is given it annoys the hell out of me.

On that note, another small thing that bugs me that's related. When the Pats beat the Falcons, right before the winner in OT they actually threw first and the Falcon defender and the ball in his hands and couldn't squeeze it. The Pats do the exact same thing a few years later but because the defender doesn't catch it, it doesn't burn them. Why couldn't Butler have dropped it the same way. AARGHH!!!