NFC Playoff Picture (Week 14)

[marko358]

We're winning out so no need to worry about 10-6 scenarios.

 

[Hawks46]

Give me the better chances of a wild card, all day every day. Let's go cards. With all the craziness of this year i want certainty.

But beat each other's brains in during the game.

The division is still a possibility. With that in mind, I'm rooting for the Vikes. So long as we keep winning, we'll get into the tournament, but the chance to win the division and get at least one home game? We need to hold on to hope until that hope fades.

This is the simplest way to look at it. We're Vikings fans up until Arizona beats them. Then we're Cardinals supporters (I can't ever say fans).

Looking at the tie breaks, that could get interesting. We'd have H2H tied (if we beat them in the last game), divisional record tied, common games could get interesting. We'd have mirror images in divisional games: both swept SF, both split with STL, and hypothetically split with each other. We beat Minn, hypothetically they'd lose. They beat Cincy, we lost to them. GB would be a swing game. That's their most likely loss as well. Say we both lost to GB...who else ?

They're the top scoring team in the league, so if it came down to points, they'd have us. Then we'd have to examine how our WC looks if we won out, lost the tie break to AZ, and then what...tie with GB ? Hopefully tied with Minn.

Personally, I root for us to take the division, all the time. That said, it really is easier for us if AZ knocks off GB and Minn.

 

[Hawkpower]

I'm not sure about 3 way tie scenarios, but if Tampa wins out and Seattle loses any of their remaining games, Tampa would own the tiebreaker (Conference record). Tampa does finish against Carolina but Carolina might potentially rest starters. Tampa's other games are all winnable.

I'll be rooting for Tampa to lose one more game before I fully relax in the wildcard race.

But lest say Seattle finishes 3-1, Minnesota finishes 2-2, and Tampa finishes 4-0....They would all be 10-6. That would make Tampa the #5 seed, Seahawks the #6 seed and Minnesota would be out....correct?

Either way it isn't happening. But just a hypothetical. if Carolina is 15-0, you better believe they are going for 16-0.

I wonder about this too, because all three at 10-6 seems like a pretty decent possibility.

It is a decent possibility and here is how it would work out (and it's why Tampa is Seattle's biggest threat in the NFC South).

1. If Tampa wins out, they'd be 10-6 with a whopping 9-3 conference record. That conference record will probably beat anyone's.

2. If Seattle goes 3-1 down the stretch they'd finish 10-6 as well. Our conference record would be either 8-4 or 7-5 depending on where the loss is. Let's assuming the worst and it's a conference loss (either vs Rams or Arizona) and it's 7-5.

3. If either Minny or Green Bay go 2-2 down the stretch (and they play each other so there's at least one loss for either of them), then they'd finish 10-6. Minny has no non-conference games left which means they'd finish with a 7-5 conference record. Green Bay has one non-conf game left (Oakland) and has a current conference record of 6-3. If they go 2-2 down the stretch, they could finish as high as 8-4 conference but more likely 7-5.


So there are two possible three way ties:

1. Seattle, Minny, Tampa

Tampa would take the #5 seed because there is no common head to head tiebreak, and very few common foes (only chicago), so it would come down to conference record, and Tampa's 9-3 would be good enough to take that tiebreak.

That would leave Seattle and Minny and Seattle would take the #6 seed based on head to head and Minny would be on the outside looking in.

HOWEVER

2. Seattle, Green Bay, Tampa

Again for reasons already stated, Tampa would take the #5 seed based on conference record on the three way tiebreak. However, this time Green Bay has the head to head over Seattle, and would take the #6 seed with Seattle on the outside looking in.

This is all the more reason why Seattle fans really want Green Bay to win the North....UNLESS Seattle can somehow swindle back the NFC West.

Thanks! Makes sense!

Man, if I had a crystal ball and could see Minny losing another game or two down the stretch, as well as Tampa stinking one up, I would be all in on the GO VIKINGS train for Thursday.

But without that reassurance, I still feel a bit unsteady about the WC spot, the 5 spot is SO much better than the 6, and quite frankly after seeing how well we played on the road last week, not so sure that concerns me.

In addition, if we are a 3 seed instead of a 2, we likely play a north team in round one instead of an East team.....

GB/Vikes at home or dreck NFC east team on the road.....EASY Pick for me.

Go Cards.

 

[Anonymous]

This is an excellent topic, I don't care who you are. Very well researched, great information. Thanks!

Playing with the Playoff Machine over at ESPN, I can't help coming to the conclusion that I absolutely do NOT want us to end up in Green Bay, WI., at the Frozen Damn Tundra, for a playoff game. Absolutely do not want that. Even though we match up better against them, I'm not ready to take the cold-weather-chance this season. I'm not feelin it.

Nope, I've made up my mind, I'm firmly seated in wanting Carolina, in Charlotte. Whatever scenario needs to play out to make that happen, let's root for it.

Carry on.

 

[Zorn76]

Be Awesome if AZ choked their way out of the division title, but I just don't see it. We knew the loss to them a month ago would really affect our chances of defending West crown, and sure enough...

Best we can hope for realistically is the #5 seed.

We may also have enough momentum to be road warriors in the playoffs.
You never know.
We're starting to peak at the right time.

 

[Hawk-A-Loogie]

So with AZ winning against Vikings. We can't win the division no more?

 

[Cartire]

So with AZ winning against Vikings. We can't win the division no more?

We can, buts its at like a 1.2% chance. It involves NO/CINCY/AZ losing out basically and Stealers/Cowboys nearly winning out.

Were guaranteed 5th seed if we win out. Thats all that matters now.

 

[Zorn76]

Considering where we were a month ago, a 5th seed doesn't sound too bad.

 

[Hawk-A-Loogie]

So with AZ winning against Vikings. We can't win the division no more?

We can, buts its at like a 1.2% chance. It involves NO/CINCY/AZ losing out basically and Stealers/Cowboys nearly winning out.

Were guaranteed 5th seed if we win out. Thats all that matters now.

Thanks for the info!

 

[Hawk-Lock]

5 seed here we come! Can't wait to pummel the NFC East champion and then end the Panthers streak.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Freaking Bridgewater. If AZ lost tonight I really think they would have blown the division.

 

[Hawk-Lock]

Freaking Bridgewater. If AZ lost tonight I really think they would have blown the division.

I doubt that. Philly still sucks. GB game would have been interesting. But I still think they would beat GB. That Cards offense would carve up the GB defense. And even if we played them, it isn't a given we'd beat them. I know most Hawk fans are very confident, but vegas would have us as a dog in that game.

The chances of them finishing 1-3 and us going 4-0 were probably under 3%.