Week 14 NFC Playoff Picture

[Polaris]

Hello Everyone,

This has been a terrific week to be a Seahawks fan! We win and San Fran loses, and I will bring the good news on the latest playoff picture for this weekend. As always, I use the following codes for teams that have already secured a berth in the playoffs. As always there will be a companion article Week 14 AFC Playoff Picture

* means that the team has secured home field through the playoffs
z means the team has secured a first week bye
y means the team has secured a division title (sometimes followed by a (#) indicating playoff seed)
x means the team has secured a playoff spot (again sometimes followed by a (#) indicating specific seed)
e means the team has been eliminated from the playoffs

NFC East
This division continues to be a disaster zone for the NFC and again, no one seems to want to win this division. The Giants finally fell out of playoff contention, but the Redskins are barely hanging on to the tiniest sliver of a chance at the division (being the only team that actually won in week 13)

Team----------Record-----Conf---------Div-----Next Five
Dallas----------- 6-6 -------- 5-3 --------- 4-0 - @Chicago, Rams, @Philly, Wash
Philadelphia--- 5-7 -------- 3-5 --------- 1-1 - NY Giant, @Wash, Dallas, @NY Giant
Washington---- 3-9 -------- 2-6 --------- 0-3 - @Green Bay, Philly, NY Giants, @Dallas
e-NY Giants--- 2-10 ------- 2-7 --------- 1-2 - @Philly, Miami, @Wash, Philly


Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC East.

Elimination Scenarios: The NY Giants are eliminated from the playoffs. The Washington Redskins will be as well with a loss or a Dallas win. A Philly loss OR Minnesota win eliminates Philly from any wild card consideration.

NFC South
This year this is the New Orleans' Saint's division and everyone else lives in it. That pretty much sums up the state of this division. Not as putrid as the NFC East, but not far from it.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
y-New Orleans - 10-2 -------- 8-2 ------- 4-1 - San Francisco, Indy, @Tenn, @Carolina
Carolina ---------- 5-7 --------- 2-7 ------- 1-3 - @Atlanta, Seattle, @Indy, New Orleans
Tampa Bay ------ 5-7 --------- 4-6 ------- 2-3 - Indy, @Detroit, Houston, Atlanta
e-Atlanta --------- 3-9 --------- 3-6 ------- 2-2 - Carolina, @San Francisco, Jax, @Tampa Bay

Clinching Scenarios: New Orleans has clinched the division and is on the verge of clinching at least the 3 seed. There are no other clinching scenarios for the NFC South.

Elimination Scenarios: By losing to New Orleans, Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs. Because Minnesota lost, Carolina and Tampa Bay hold on to a shred of a chance of a wild card but are both definitely on the outside looking in. Carolina is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss plus either a Chicago Win OR Minny Win. Tampa Bay is eliminated from the playoffs with a loss + Chicago win.

NFC North
This year the NFC North looks to be a contest between the Vikings and the Packers. Because Minnesota lost, a number of teams in the NFC still stay at least mathematically alive for the last wild card spot. Also Minnesota really needed a win last week because they are now a game behind Green Bay and lost to them already.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
Green Bay --- 9-3 -------- 8-2 --------- 3-0 - Wash, Chicago, @Minnesota, @Detroit
Minnesota --- 8-4 -------- 6-3 --------- 1-2 - Detroit, @LA Chargers, Green Bay, Chicago
Chicago ------ 6-6 -------- 5-4 --------- 3-1 - Dallas, @Green Bay, Kansas City, @Minnesota
e-Detroit ------ 3-8-1 ----- 2-6-1 ------- 0-4 - @Minnesota, Tampa Bay, @Denver, Green Bay

Clinching Scenarios: There are no clinching scenarios for the NFC North this week.

Elimination Scenarios: Detroit was eliminated from the playoffs in week 13. No other NFC North team can *quite* be eliminated from the playoffs or division this week.


NFC West
Overall this is probably the best division this season in the NFC. With a win vs Minnesota this week and a San Fran loss vs the Ravens, Seattle now takes over first place at least for week 14 in this division. All that said, both San Fran and Seattle continue to control their own destinies (week 17 is looking more and more decisive), and it is looking more and more like the 1/2 and 5 seed will come from here and come from Seattle or San Fran. There is an increasing chance that the LA Rams may yet sneak in as the #6 seed but remain on the outside looking in and their chances don't look good given their schedule.

Team----------Record-----Conf--------Div-----Next Five
Seattle ------- 10-2 --------- 7-1 -------- 3-0 - @LA Rams, @Carolina, Arizona, San Francisco
San Fran --- 10-2 -------- 7-1 --------- 3-1 - @New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, @Seattle
LA Rams ---- 7-5 --------- 5-3 -------- 1-2 - Seattle, @Dallas, @San Francisco, Arizona
e-Arizona ---- 3-8-1 ------ 2-7-1 ------ 0-4 - Pittsburgh, Cleveland, @Seattle, @LA Rams

Clinching Scenarios: 1) If Seattle wins or ties this week they are IN the playoffs. A win insures Seattle can finish no worse than 11-5 and imposes a loss on the Rams insuring they can do no better than 10-6 and no other team aside from the Vikings can reach 11-5 either. Likewise a tie would insure the Seattle tiebreak vs the Rams by head to head AND no worse than a 10-5-1 record while the Rams could do no better than 10-5-1 either and loses any tiebreak with Seattle in this case. 2) A San Fran win + Seattle win or tie insures that the 49ners are in the playoffs. That's because a Seattle win or tie puts the Rams out of reach of Seattle or San Fran (see above).

Elimination Scenario: Arizona has already been eliminated. If Seattle wins or ties, the LA Rams are eliminated from NFC West contention (but are barely alive for the playoffs).

 

[Maulbert]

2) A San Fran win + Seattle win or tie insures that the 49ners are in the playoffs. That's because a Seattle win or tie puts the Rams out of reach of Seattle or San Fran (see above).

LOL!!!!! I LOVE IT! THE WHINERS NEED US TO WIN!

 

[Rat]

Looks like we screwed up. Probably won't be getting the Cowboys in our first playoff game now.

 

[Hawkpower]

Looks like we screwed up. Probably won't be getting the Cowboys in our first playoff game now.

I like playing "bye" much better anyway

 

[BleuEyedHawk]

Looks like we screwed up. Probably won't be getting the Cowboys in our first playoff game now.

We had the boys last year (and liked our chances), but that scenario didn't work out for us.

Let's try something new imho.

 

[Bigpumpkin]

This team reminds me of the Matt Hasselbeck team. They had a "bye" and we shined in the Conference Championship at home.....without doubt the loudest game in Seahawk history..

 

[Seahawkfan80]

Thanks Polaris. Much appreciated.

 

[Mad Dog]

This team reminds me of the Matt Hasselbeck team. They had a "bye" and we shined in the Conference Championship at home.....without doubt the loudest game in Seahawk history..

Agree.
\

The two headed monster of Carson/Penny is playing the Alexander roll. The OL is a good run blocking line and Wilson plays as his own pass blocker and QB. DK is the Jackson guy that makes the big plays and big drops. Lockett is reliable Bobby Engram.

The defense is just good enough to help out the O when needed but will lack ProBowlers. But they get enough pressure, create enough big turnovers, stop the run well enough to keep us always in the game.

Biggest difference this year is the lack of really crappy teams on our schedule compared to '05. ARI, CIN, ATL have been the worst teams. LAR, SF, NO, BAL, PIT, MIN have all been above .500 and PHI and CLE are hovering around .500.

In '05, the Rams, SF, ARI were awful, as were HOU, TEN, GB, and PHI. 10 games against losing teams. This year we will likely play only 5 games against teams will losing records.

 

[Rat]

This year we will likely play only 5 games against teams will losing records.

That seems low. Cardinals x 2, Bengals, Browns, Bucs, Panthers, Falcons, and Eagles are all multiple games under .500 right now.

 

[JerHawk81]

Polaris - I'd love to hear your thoughts on the role that week 17 will play in the NFC West. Is this correct?

If we go into that game two games behind SF, the outcome doesn't matter to the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game behind SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game with the same record as SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game ahead of SF, and win, we obviously get the NFC West.

But, what if we go into that game one game ahead of SF and lose??? Here, we would have the same record, split the head-to-head games, and likely have the same division and conference records. My head hurts as I try and think this through, so I'm hoping you can shed some light...

 

[Polaris]

Polaris - I'd love to hear your thoughts on the role that week 17 will play in the NFC West. Is this correct?

If we go into that game two games behind SF, the outcome doesn't matter to the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game behind SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game with the same record as SF, the winner gets the NFC West.
If we go into that game one game ahead of SF, and win, we obviously get the NFC West.

But, what if we go into that game one game ahead of SF and lose??? Here, we would have the same record, split the head-to-head games, and likely have the same division and conference records. My head hurts as I try and think this through, so I'm hoping you can shed some light...

Then it comes down to which games we won and San Fran didn't and that's really really tricky. The problem is that all four games for both teams are conference games and both Seattle and San Fran have the same conference record. If San Fran drops an extra division game (the Rams are the only possibility), and we win until week 17, then we win the division even if we lose week 17. Why? San Fran would go into week 17 with a 3-2 division record and we would go in with a 5-0 division record. Even with a SF win, Seattle takes the division on the division tiebreak (5-1 vs 4-2).

If San Fran drops a game that we don't that's not divisional, then San Fran will go into the final game with a 4-1 division record, and we will go win with a 5-0 division record. That means with a SF win, that everything is tied down to common opponents tiebreak and I suspect we'd lose that (get back with you on that).

So it's strongly dependent on which game SF drops.