Well....that was an interesting game of MNF....but with Dallas doing Seattle a solid, the NFC teams are played so it's time for this week's edition of.....the NFC Playoff Picture. From this week on, you will sometimes see special symbols by team names. They represent the following:
x-clinched a playoff spot of any kind. Later on you may see a number after this. This reflects clinching a specific seed.
y-clinched the division. Later on you may see a number. Again this refers to a specific seed.
z-clinched a first round bye
*-clinched home field advantage
e- eliminated from playoffs
Like last week, the easiest division division to read will be the one I start with: The NFC South
NFC South
Carolina
12-0 (8-0 conf) Remaining Opponents: Atlanta, @NY Giants, @Atlanta, Bucs
Tampa 6-6 (5-3 conf) Remaining Opponents: Saints, @Rams, Chicago, @Carolina
Atlanta 6-6 (4-5 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Carolina, @Jax, Carolina, Saints
Saints 4-8 (3-6 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Bucs, Detroit, Jax, @Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: As you can see, Carolina has already clinched the division. Carolina will clinch a first week bye if any one of the following happen:
1. A Carolina win or tie
2. Both Minny and Green Bay lose or tie
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously all but Carolina are eliminated from the division race. Neither Tampa nor Atlanta can be mathematically eliminated this week. New Orleans, however, can be. New Orleans is eliminated if either one of the following happens:
1. A Loss. Why? A loss would be the best the Saints could do is 7-9 and they can't beat Seattle on tie breaks even if Seattle loses out and Seattle is currently setting the wild card floor.
2. A Seattle win + Minny win. Why? It turns out that the Saints only chance to make a wildcard is to win out and be in a tie with Minnesota. Minny is the only team currently holding a wildcard spot in reach that the Saints win the tiebreak on. Seattle is the only team in reach currently holding a wildcard spot, but Seattle owns the tiebreak. If both Sea and Min win, both are out of reach along with any shot at a WC. [Yes in theory the Saints could possibly tie the Packers, but the Packers would own that tiebreak as well.]
Greatest threat to Seattle: Tampa Bay. Atlanta is done. Even if Atlanta were to tie Seattle (unlikely if you look at both schedules and how they are playing), Atlanta doesn't win the tiebeak. Tampa Bay would and Tampa is only a game back.
Who to root for: I recommend that Seattle fans root for Carolina and the Saints. I recommend Carolina because it puts Atlanta out of any playoff consideration faster and essentially any chance that Carolina and Seattle will be vying for the same spot (important since they have that tiebreak). I recommend rooting for the Saints because even though a Saints loss would eliminate them, it's much more important for Seattle to have Tampa lose at least for now.
Next we'll move on to that cesspit of mediocrity otherwise known as the NFC East:
NFC East
Washington 5-7 (5-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Chicago, Buff, @Philly, @Dallas
Philly 5-7 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Buff, Arizona, Washington, @Giants
NY Giants 5-7 (4-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Miami, Carolina, @Minny, Philly
Dallas 4-8 (3-7 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Green Bay, Jets, @Buff, Washington
Clinching Scenarios: None. Really. [Wow this division is putrid this year.]
Elimination Scenarios: This is one. Sorta. If either Seattle wins or Dallas loses, Dallas is eliminated from any wildcard contention.
Who is the biggest threat? Of any of them, I'd say the Giants only because Eli has a proven track record in the playoffs.
Who to root for: Honestly for the most part who cares? Almost none of these will affect Seattle since the best ANY of these teams can do is 9-7 and one of these teams is going to have to win the division. That means if Seattle can win their next two and either GB or Minny can win at least one, we don't have to worry about the NFC East. There is one wrinkle, however. We do want to root for as many Cowboy wins as possible. The Cowboys are not a realistic threat to any playoff spot that Seattle might get, but a Cowboy win streak would improve Seattle's SoV which will help against any possible (albeit highly unlikely) tiebreak scenario with Arizona.
We'll move on next to the division that's most intrinsically tied with our own (because we played each other this year) and because they currently own two of the six playoff spots. That would be the NFC North.
NFC North
Green Bay 8-4 (6-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: Dallas, @Raiders, @Arizona, Minny
Minnesota 8-4 (5-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Chicago, NY Giants, @Green Bay
Chicago 5-7 (2-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Washington, @Minny, @Tampa, Detroit
Detroit 4-8 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Rams, @Saints, San Fran, @Chicago
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: Because Green Bay and Minny play each other one more time, that guarantees that at least one of them will be 9-7 barring a tie between them. That means that right now the only way that Chicago can win the NFC North is to win out and have Green Bay and Minnesota tie after both lose out three weeks prior. In addition to that Chicago has already lost to Seattle and has a horrible conference record. That means that:
Chicago is eliminated with:
A Chicago Loss + Seattle Win
The same logic can be applied to Detroit. We find that Detroit is already eliminated from the NFC North race thanks to Fail-Mask.
That being so Detroit is eliminated with either:
1. A loss
2. A Seattle win
So who is the greatest threat? That would probably be Green Bay. Fortunately Seattle may be able to avoid them until the Championship round depending on how things work out. In any event we want Seattle fighting Minny for the same playoff slot since we have that tiebreak rather than Green Bay.
Who to root for:
Minnesota @ Arizona is probably the most important game on the week 14 slate for Seahawk fans other than our own. As such I'd like to discuss this in a lot more depth when I talk about the NFC West.
As for the rest, believe it or not we should root for Detroit (even though Detroit will and should definitely be rooting against us). Why? It turns out that a Detroit win can eliminate the Rams for all playoff contention, and we already have a tiebreak on Detroit but don't (at least not yet) on the Rams. As for the rest, we don't especially care about the Chicago game either way (except a Chicago loss probably eliminates them), and we should root for Dallas to help our SoV but even that isn't all that important.
Finally the most important division for Seahawk Fans.
NFC West
Arizona 10-2 (7-1 conf) Remaining Schedule: Minny, @Philly, Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle 7-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Ravens, Cleveland, St Louis, @Arizona
St Louis 4-8 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Detroit, Tampa,@Seattle,@San Fran
San Fran 4-8 (3-7 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Cleveland, Cincy, @Detroit, St. Louis
Arizona continues to be in the drivers seat, Seattle is coming on strong but likely too late to catch Arizona for the division, and the Rams and Niners are fading fast.
Clinching Scenarios: There are two this week in the NFC West and both involve Arizona (not a surprise).
Arizona clinches the NFC West with a Win or tie and a Seattle loss (or a win and a Seattle loss or tie). This would make it impossible for Seattle to catch Arizona.
Arizona clinches a playoff spot with any ONE of the following:
1. An Arizona Win. Why? A win would assure Arizona of at least an 11-5 record something only Seattle, Minny, and Green Bay could match (ignoring Carolina that is no longer in any playoff picture other than for divisional seeding). Seattle can be eliminated right off. Either Arizona beats Seattle in the divisional tiebreak (which wins the division) or they don't in which case Seattle gets it and is out of the Wild Card Picture (like Carolina). Of the other two 11-5 teams, one of them will win the NFC North (eliminating them from any wild-card picture) leaving at least one wildcard slot for Arizona. So a win assures Arizona of at least a wildcard no matter what.
2. Tampa Loss (or tie) AND Atlanta Loss (or tie). Why? [This would also be great for Seattle.] It insures that no NFC South team could catch Arizona leaving only Seattle, Minny, and Green Bay able to match Arizona mathematically (no worse than 10-6). Either Minny or Green Bay would win the NFC North in such an event and either Arizona or Seattle will win the NFC West. That guarantees at least a WC Spot for Arizona.
3. Tampa Loss (or tie) AND Green Bay Win (or tie). Why? This assumes (in a subtle way) that Arizona loses to Minny (otherwise scenario one applies). In such a case, Arizona needs to assure that that no more than one team can match them in record and tie-breaks if they lose the divisional tie to Seattle. Seattle is simply not in Arizona's picture when contemplating a possible wild-card slot, so that leaves Minny, Green Bay, Tampa, and Atlanta. In this case either Minny or Green Bay would have to win the north, and Tampa would not be able to match Arizona's record. Green Bay has to win to insure that the worst that could happen for Arizona would be a tie with another team at 10-6 (or a three way) that Arizona would win at least one WC spot.
Elimination Scenarios: Both St Louis and San Fran have been eliminated from any shot at the NFC West Crown. A Seattle Loss plus an Arizona win would officially eliminate Seattle from the NFC West crown race as well (see above). San Fran has also lost twice to Seattle who currently defines the wildcard floor and could have (at best) a 5-7 conference record which won't win tiebreaks.
Thus San Fran is eliminated with either:
1. A San Fran Loss
2. A Seattle win
The Rams can also be eliminated from the playoffs this week. The rams currently hold the head-to-head tiebreak with Seattle, but that's the only important tiebreak they have. However, if they win out, their conference record would improve to 7-5 which may be enough to get a WC spot. That means to eliminate St Louis, it must be impossible for St Louis to match records with Seattle in such a way they get the head-to-head tiebreak over Seattle.
That means St Louis is eliminated with a loss and a Seattle win
Why? A St Louis loss insures the best record they can possibly have is 7-9 (this is why I advised that you root for Detroit this week), and a Seattle win would insure they can finish no worse than 8-8 thus setting the new floor for possible wild-card teams. This combination eliminates St Louis.
Who's the greatest threat? Well Arizona....maybe. Frankly if speaking strictly of making the playoffs and taking our chances, Arizona is almost as much an ally as a rival in a strange way since we play most of the same teams. Other than Arizona, Seattle's greatest threat in the NFC West is Seattle...we need to keep the foot on the gas!
Who to root for: Obviously we want to root for the Seahawks to dismantle the Ravens this Sunday (and I think we will). However, I'd like to spend some time (as promised above) to discuss the second most important game of the week for us coming up this Thursday: Minnesota @ Arizona
A compelling case can be made either way. I look at it this way: We want to play at home if at all possible and that means that if there is the smallest chance that Seattle can steal the division, we need to root for that to happen. That means I recommend that we put on the horned hats and become honorary Vikings fans for a day. However, I warn everyone that should the Vikings win, it would actually hurt Seattle's overall playoff chances. Here's why. If Minnesota wins, they improve to 9-4 and that means that Seattle can't catch them for at least another week, and Minnesota faces to much easier games (Chicago and Detroit) before the Season finale against Green Bay in the frozen tundra. That raises the specter of either coming in as the sixth seed (and possibly facing that same frozen tundra) or losing a tie-break with Green Bay for a coveted first week bye.
If you really want the easier wildcard berth, it's a lot easier to get it (that would be the #5 seed) if Arizona wins, but if that happens, it would take a fluke for Seattle to win the division. If 'Zona wins, for Seattle to win the division:
1. Seattle would have to win out (no surprise there)
2. Arizona would have to lose against BOTH Green Bay and Philly
3. Pittsburgh would have to overtake Cincy so Seattle would win the SoV Tiebreak
4. We also want Dallas to win as much as possible as well for the SoV tiebreak
The combination is rather.....unlikely.
If you believe that 'Zona is a fait accompli for the Division title and want the #5 seed, then forget about pride and being an honorary Viking and root for the birds instead.
As for the rest, San Fran is irrelevant (the next Seattle win eliminates them), and root against the Rams (to eliminate them as well).
*whew* I hope you found this all useful.
Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
x-clinched a playoff spot of any kind. Later on you may see a number after this. This reflects clinching a specific seed.
y-clinched the division. Later on you may see a number. Again this refers to a specific seed.
z-clinched a first round bye
*-clinched home field advantage
e- eliminated from playoffs
Like last week, the easiest division division to read will be the one I start with: The NFC South
NFC South
Carolina
12-0 (8-0 conf) Remaining Opponents: Atlanta, @NY Giants, @Atlanta, BucsTampa 6-6 (5-3 conf) Remaining Opponents: Saints, @Rams, Chicago, @Carolina
Atlanta 6-6 (4-5 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Carolina, @Jax, Carolina, Saints
Saints 4-8 (3-6 conf) Remaining Opponents: @Bucs, Detroit, Jax, @Atlanta
Clinching Scenarios: As you can see, Carolina has already clinched the division. Carolina will clinch a first week bye if any one of the following happen:
1. A Carolina win or tie
2. Both Minny and Green Bay lose or tie
Elimination Scenarios: Obviously all but Carolina are eliminated from the division race. Neither Tampa nor Atlanta can be mathematically eliminated this week. New Orleans, however, can be. New Orleans is eliminated if either one of the following happens:
1. A Loss. Why? A loss would be the best the Saints could do is 7-9 and they can't beat Seattle on tie breaks even if Seattle loses out and Seattle is currently setting the wild card floor.
2. A Seattle win + Minny win. Why? It turns out that the Saints only chance to make a wildcard is to win out and be in a tie with Minnesota. Minny is the only team currently holding a wildcard spot in reach that the Saints win the tiebreak on. Seattle is the only team in reach currently holding a wildcard spot, but Seattle owns the tiebreak. If both Sea and Min win, both are out of reach along with any shot at a WC. [Yes in theory the Saints could possibly tie the Packers, but the Packers would own that tiebreak as well.]
Greatest threat to Seattle: Tampa Bay. Atlanta is done. Even if Atlanta were to tie Seattle (unlikely if you look at both schedules and how they are playing), Atlanta doesn't win the tiebeak. Tampa Bay would and Tampa is only a game back.
Who to root for: I recommend that Seattle fans root for Carolina and the Saints. I recommend Carolina because it puts Atlanta out of any playoff consideration faster and essentially any chance that Carolina and Seattle will be vying for the same spot (important since they have that tiebreak). I recommend rooting for the Saints because even though a Saints loss would eliminate them, it's much more important for Seattle to have Tampa lose at least for now.
Next we'll move on to that cesspit of mediocrity otherwise known as the NFC East:
NFC East
Washington 5-7 (5-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Chicago, Buff, @Philly, @Dallas
Philly 5-7 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Buff, Arizona, Washington, @Giants
NY Giants 5-7 (4-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Miami, Carolina, @Minny, Philly
Dallas 4-8 (3-7 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Green Bay, Jets, @Buff, Washington
Clinching Scenarios: None. Really. [Wow this division is putrid this year.]
Elimination Scenarios: This is one. Sorta. If either Seattle wins or Dallas loses, Dallas is eliminated from any wildcard contention.
Who is the biggest threat? Of any of them, I'd say the Giants only because Eli has a proven track record in the playoffs.
Who to root for: Honestly for the most part who cares? Almost none of these will affect Seattle since the best ANY of these teams can do is 9-7 and one of these teams is going to have to win the division. That means if Seattle can win their next two and either GB or Minny can win at least one, we don't have to worry about the NFC East. There is one wrinkle, however. We do want to root for as many Cowboy wins as possible. The Cowboys are not a realistic threat to any playoff spot that Seattle might get, but a Cowboy win streak would improve Seattle's SoV which will help against any possible (albeit highly unlikely) tiebreak scenario with Arizona.
We'll move on next to the division that's most intrinsically tied with our own (because we played each other this year) and because they currently own two of the six playoff spots. That would be the NFC North.
NFC North
Green Bay 8-4 (6-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: Dallas, @Raiders, @Arizona, Minny
Minnesota 8-4 (5-3 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Arizona, Chicago, NY Giants, @Green Bay
Chicago 5-7 (2-6 conf) Remaining Schedule: Washington, @Minny, @Tampa, Detroit
Detroit 4-8 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Rams, @Saints, San Fran, @Chicago
Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: Because Green Bay and Minny play each other one more time, that guarantees that at least one of them will be 9-7 barring a tie between them. That means that right now the only way that Chicago can win the NFC North is to win out and have Green Bay and Minnesota tie after both lose out three weeks prior. In addition to that Chicago has already lost to Seattle and has a horrible conference record. That means that:
Chicago is eliminated with:
A Chicago Loss + Seattle Win
The same logic can be applied to Detroit. We find that Detroit is already eliminated from the NFC North race thanks to Fail-Mask.
That being so Detroit is eliminated with either:
1. A loss
2. A Seattle win
So who is the greatest threat? That would probably be Green Bay. Fortunately Seattle may be able to avoid them until the Championship round depending on how things work out. In any event we want Seattle fighting Minny for the same playoff slot since we have that tiebreak rather than Green Bay.
Who to root for:
Minnesota @ Arizona is probably the most important game on the week 14 slate for Seahawk fans other than our own. As such I'd like to discuss this in a lot more depth when I talk about the NFC West.
As for the rest, believe it or not we should root for Detroit (even though Detroit will and should definitely be rooting against us). Why? It turns out that a Detroit win can eliminate the Rams for all playoff contention, and we already have a tiebreak on Detroit but don't (at least not yet) on the Rams. As for the rest, we don't especially care about the Chicago game either way (except a Chicago loss probably eliminates them), and we should root for Dallas to help our SoV but even that isn't all that important.
Finally the most important division for Seahawk Fans.
NFC West
Arizona 10-2 (7-1 conf) Remaining Schedule: Minny, @Philly, Green Bay, Seattle
Seattle 7-5 (6-4 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Ravens, Cleveland, St Louis, @Arizona
St Louis 4-8 (3-5 conf) Remaining Schedule: Detroit, Tampa,@Seattle,@San Fran
San Fran 4-8 (3-7 conf) Remaining Schedule: @Cleveland, Cincy, @Detroit, St. Louis
Arizona continues to be in the drivers seat, Seattle is coming on strong but likely too late to catch Arizona for the division, and the Rams and Niners are fading fast.
Clinching Scenarios: There are two this week in the NFC West and both involve Arizona (not a surprise).
Arizona clinches the NFC West with a Win or tie and a Seattle loss (or a win and a Seattle loss or tie). This would make it impossible for Seattle to catch Arizona.
Arizona clinches a playoff spot with any ONE of the following:
1. An Arizona Win. Why? A win would assure Arizona of at least an 11-5 record something only Seattle, Minny, and Green Bay could match (ignoring Carolina that is no longer in any playoff picture other than for divisional seeding). Seattle can be eliminated right off. Either Arizona beats Seattle in the divisional tiebreak (which wins the division) or they don't in which case Seattle gets it and is out of the Wild Card Picture (like Carolina). Of the other two 11-5 teams, one of them will win the NFC North (eliminating them from any wild-card picture) leaving at least one wildcard slot for Arizona. So a win assures Arizona of at least a wildcard no matter what.
2. Tampa Loss (or tie) AND Atlanta Loss (or tie). Why? [This would also be great for Seattle.] It insures that no NFC South team could catch Arizona leaving only Seattle, Minny, and Green Bay able to match Arizona mathematically (no worse than 10-6). Either Minny or Green Bay would win the NFC North in such an event and either Arizona or Seattle will win the NFC West. That guarantees at least a WC Spot for Arizona.
3. Tampa Loss (or tie) AND Green Bay Win (or tie). Why? This assumes (in a subtle way) that Arizona loses to Minny (otherwise scenario one applies). In such a case, Arizona needs to assure that that no more than one team can match them in record and tie-breaks if they lose the divisional tie to Seattle. Seattle is simply not in Arizona's picture when contemplating a possible wild-card slot, so that leaves Minny, Green Bay, Tampa, and Atlanta. In this case either Minny or Green Bay would have to win the north, and Tampa would not be able to match Arizona's record. Green Bay has to win to insure that the worst that could happen for Arizona would be a tie with another team at 10-6 (or a three way) that Arizona would win at least one WC spot.
Elimination Scenarios: Both St Louis and San Fran have been eliminated from any shot at the NFC West Crown. A Seattle Loss plus an Arizona win would officially eliminate Seattle from the NFC West crown race as well (see above). San Fran has also lost twice to Seattle who currently defines the wildcard floor and could have (at best) a 5-7 conference record which won't win tiebreaks.
Thus San Fran is eliminated with either:
1. A San Fran Loss
2. A Seattle win
The Rams can also be eliminated from the playoffs this week. The rams currently hold the head-to-head tiebreak with Seattle, but that's the only important tiebreak they have. However, if they win out, their conference record would improve to 7-5 which may be enough to get a WC spot. That means to eliminate St Louis, it must be impossible for St Louis to match records with Seattle in such a way they get the head-to-head tiebreak over Seattle.
That means St Louis is eliminated with a loss and a Seattle win
Why? A St Louis loss insures the best record they can possibly have is 7-9 (this is why I advised that you root for Detroit this week), and a Seattle win would insure they can finish no worse than 8-8 thus setting the new floor for possible wild-card teams. This combination eliminates St Louis.
Who's the greatest threat? Well Arizona....maybe. Frankly if speaking strictly of making the playoffs and taking our chances, Arizona is almost as much an ally as a rival in a strange way since we play most of the same teams. Other than Arizona, Seattle's greatest threat in the NFC West is Seattle...we need to keep the foot on the gas!
Who to root for: Obviously we want to root for the Seahawks to dismantle the Ravens this Sunday (and I think we will). However, I'd like to spend some time (as promised above) to discuss the second most important game of the week for us coming up this Thursday: Minnesota @ Arizona
A compelling case can be made either way. I look at it this way: We want to play at home if at all possible and that means that if there is the smallest chance that Seattle can steal the division, we need to root for that to happen. That means I recommend that we put on the horned hats and become honorary Vikings fans for a day. However, I warn everyone that should the Vikings win, it would actually hurt Seattle's overall playoff chances. Here's why. If Minnesota wins, they improve to 9-4 and that means that Seattle can't catch them for at least another week, and Minnesota faces to much easier games (Chicago and Detroit) before the Season finale against Green Bay in the frozen tundra. That raises the specter of either coming in as the sixth seed (and possibly facing that same frozen tundra) or losing a tie-break with Green Bay for a coveted first week bye.
If you really want the easier wildcard berth, it's a lot easier to get it (that would be the #5 seed) if Arizona wins, but if that happens, it would take a fluke for Seattle to win the division. If 'Zona wins, for Seattle to win the division:
1. Seattle would have to win out (no surprise there)
2. Arizona would have to lose against BOTH Green Bay and Philly
3. Pittsburgh would have to overtake Cincy so Seattle would win the SoV Tiebreak
4. We also want Dallas to win as much as possible as well for the SoV tiebreak
The combination is rather.....unlikely.
If you believe that 'Zona is a fait accompli for the Division title and want the #5 seed, then forget about pride and being an honorary Viking and root for the birds instead.
As for the rest, San Fran is irrelevant (the next Seattle win eliminates them), and root against the Rams (to eliminate them as well).
*whew* I hope you found this all useful.
Source: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace
