https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... 538twitter
Opening paragraph
And the drum that people who are the apparent unimpeachable masters of the universe of football knowledge aren't actually that great at what they do keeps beating.
Opening paragraph
No position in professional sports is more important or more misunderstood than the quarterback. NFL scouts, coaches and general managers — the world’s foremost experts on football player evaluation — have been notoriously terrible at separating good QB prospects from the bad through the years. No franchise or GM has shown the ability to beat the draft over time, and economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler have convincingly shown that the league’s lack of consistent draft success is likely due to overconfidence rather than an efficient market. Throw in the fact that young QBs are sometimes placed in schemes that fail to take advantage of their skills,1 that red flags regarding character go unidentified or ignored2 and that prospects often lack stable coaching environments, and there is no shortage of explanations for the recurring evaluation failures.
And the drum that people who are the apparent unimpeachable masters of the universe of football knowledge aren't actually that great at what they do keeps beating.