Is there a valid reason to root for the Rams next week?

[MontanaHawk05]

Looking at the playoff outcomes, with a Seattle win out there is a good chance of the number 2 seed, with the NFC South beating each other and the Rams taking the other wildcard.

I for one am not fussed at all if the Rams win this week, and hand Eagles their 3rd loss. Basically if we get in a 3 way tie at the top of NFC with 12-4 records, it looks like Seattle takes the 2 seed in all scenarios...I'll now wait to see if someone more knowledgeable than me blows this theory into the water.

Minnesota and Philly would both have to lose two more, and New Orleans one more, to NFC opponents in order to tie Seattle at 12-4. It would then come down to strength of victory, and Minnesota and New Orleans have beaten tougher teams than Seattle has. It could happen (and our winning out against a tough December schedule would certainly boost our SOV), but it's not entirely in our control.

#3 seed is most likely if we win out.

 

[Polaris]

Looking at the playoff outcomes, with a Seattle win out there is a good chance of the number 2 seed, with the NFC South beating each other and the Rams taking the other wildcard.

I for one am not fussed at all if the Rams win this week, and hand Eagles their 3rd loss. Basically if we get in a 3 way tie at the top of NFC with 12-4 records, it looks like Seattle takes the 2 seed in all scenarios...I'll now wait to see if someone more knowledgeable than me blows this theory into the water.

Minnesota and Philly would both have to lose two more, and New Orleans one more, to NFC opponents in order to tie Seattle at 12-4. It would then come down to strength of victory, and Minnesota and New Orleans have beaten tougher teams than Seattle has. It could happen (and our winning out against a tough December schedule would certainly boost our SOV), but it's not entirely in our control.

#3 seed is most likely if we win out.

I agree. The best chance for Seattle to get a first round bye would be:

1. Seattle wins out.
2. Minnesota and Philly somehow drop two of their remaining four
3. Atlanta wins the NFC South and/or New Orleans somehow loses two of their remaining four.

In that case, Minny would win the initial 12-4 three way tie for home field, and then Seattle would get the #2 seed by virtue of Head to Head vs the Eagles.

 

[AgentDib]

The #2 seed looks tough right now because we are behind both the Saints and the Vikings in the strength of victory tie-breaker (winning percentage of opponents you beat). However, it's entirely plausible that the Panthers, Falcons and Rams could win this week and then things would look much better for a bye.

The great thing about probability is that it resets every week and what looks unlikely now could change significantly on a week to week basis.

 

[NJlargent]

Rooting for the Rams this week is nuts. If the Rams win then when we beat them we will only be tied with them and if we lay an egg the following week against Dallas we could lose the division. And I could see us laying in egg against Dallas. Alternatively, we could lay an egg against Jacksonville on Sunday and if the Rams beat the Eagles we are two behind the Rams and still need help even if we beat them and I don’t see that help coming in the last two weeks. I also don’t see the Eagles losing to either the Raiders, giants or Dallas so our chances at a bye are unrealistic.

I could see a situation where we beat Jacksonville and the Rams, and the Rams beat the Eagles on Sunday at which time we would be tied with the Rams for the division but hold the tiebreaker after our game. The following weekend we lay an egg against Dallas and lose the division by one game to the Rams. And if we lose to Jacksonville which is certainly possible, we absolutely need Eagles to be the Rams otherwise we may be out of the playoffs.

There is absolutely no logical reason to root for the Rams because the eagles are not losing again after the Rams game if they lose that game.

 

[WindCityHawk]

I would gladly trade a slim chance at the #1 seed for a good chance at the division crown. The wildcard is slipping away faster than the division at this point. Punch your ticket to the dance, first class or coach, then figure it out from there.

Of course, when it comes to firing coaches, just getting to the playoffs isn't nearly good enough.

For me, it doesn't need to be the #1 seed. #2 or #3 is better than #5.

"Not nearly enough!"

 

[AgentDib]

There is absolutely no logical reason to root for the Rams because the eagles are not losing again after the Rams game if they lose that game.

That isn't logical at all. Even heavy favorites in the NFL only win ~80% of the time and winning three in a row is far from certain. The simplified calculation looks something like this:
- Eagles @Giants: 85%
- Eagles vs. Raiders: 75%
- Eagles vs. Cowboys: 70%
Likelihood of 3 Eagles wins = 85% * 75% * 70% = 45% (slightly unlikely)

Furthermore, the reality is actually much more complicated because individual NFL outcomes are not independent. In other words, if the Eagles lose to the Rams then we'll have learned some information that slightly downgrades their chance at winning future games. It may be something really minor like a couple of unlucky bounces, or it might be something major like a concussion to Wentz. The complicated way of calculating this is with a Monte Carlo that modifies likelihoods based on previous outcomes, and the general takeaway is that uncertainty about a game occurring 3 weeks from now is quite high. What seems obvious to you today may very well change as events unfold.

 

[NJlargent]

The Giants and/or raiders are not beating the eagles who will be favored by 8+ in both games (even if they get blown out by the rams). Dallas may have nothing to play for when they play the eagles. The chances of us losing to Jax or at Dallas are much higher than the eagles dropping a game to the giants or raiders.

 

[AgentDib]

The Giants and/or raiders are not beating the eagles who will be favored by 8+ in both games

That may be how you feel, and it may turn out to be right, but it isn't logical. Otherwise we could all just quit our jobs and bet on the Eagles money line in weeks 14-16 (don't do that).

 

[Mad Dog]

We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division. We could easily beat the Rams in 2 weeks, go 2-2 down the stretch with road losses to Dallas and Jax and lose the division and be out of the playoffs entirely.

As such, I will be cheering against the Rams every week until we've secured the division title.

Goals are always in this heirarchy: Win your Division -> Get a Bye -> Get the top seed. Don't go hoping for byes and top seeds when the division goal hasn't been met yet.

 

[capncrunch]

Go Eagles I say. Maybe we get lucky and they also lose to one of the lesser teams as well. It will be very interesting to revisit the playoff scenarios after this weekend.

 

[StoneCold]

We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division. We could easily beat the Rams in 2 weeks, go 2-2 down the stretch with road losses to Dallas and Jax and lose the division and be out of the playoffs entirely.

As such, I will be cheering against the Rams every week until we've secured the division title.

Goals are always in this heirarchy: Win your Division -> Get a Bye -> Get the top seed. Don't go hoping for byes and top seeds when the division goal hasn't been met yet.

I'm hoping for a Super Bowl win and we haven't even got to the playoffs, so I think it's OK to hope for whatever I want.

 

[Steve2222]

There is never a good reason to root for the Rams.

This is silly. Hypothetically speaking it’s week 17 and we have to have the Rams beat someone to get into the playoffs. You’re still cheering against the Rams?

 

[MontanaHawk05]

We are in a dog fight for the division. All this talk of byes is meaningless if we don't take the division.

Nobody's arguing that. Nobody's suggesting we root for the Rams to win NEXT week.

 

[vin.couve12]

Kind of surprised at the outright lack of confidence in the Seahawks.

 

[Polaris]

Kind of surprised at the outright lack of confidence in the Seahawks.

Well like Aros said, this game at Jax is the sort of game that the Seahawks tend to lose. I don't think we will mind you, but if the 'hawks *had* to lose any of the four remaining games, this would be the one I'd pick. That said, I like safety margins. If we can get a one game edge on the Rams before we face them, I'd feel better. Just sayin'

 

[chris98251]

This is what happens when you start slow sometimes, making up games at the end of the year when everyone is typically getting better unless the Injury bug hits is hard, I would be happy with the division, as stated in another thread Vikings are now indoors so not so big a deal now, but they are a team that's dangerous, our advantage going forward is playoff experience and knowing how to ramp it up, Saints also have a team to worry about and they have playoff experience in their coaches and a fair amount of players so will be a tough team to get past whether it's here or there.

 

[original poster]

I'm going all in on the 2nd seed, personally.

As another posted pointed out, I can easily see Philly dropping their game against the Rams then another one of NY, Oakland or the Cowboys. There is nothing to stop them from totally imploding right at the end, many of their fans are kind of preparing themselves for it already.

 

[RCATES]

No way the second seed is happening. First off neither Vikings or Eagles are dropping two of their next 4 games. Lastly Seattle's remaining schedule is brutal. Jags( elite defense/ running game) on the road, Incredibly balanced Rams team at the Clink where Hawks have layed stinkers this year, Cowboys on the Road with a Hungry Zeke back, Cardinals at the Clink with Palmer likely being back. Brutal remaining schedule. You wan't Rams to lose Sunday 100%. We want the division.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Just like no way they can beat the Eagles? Anything can happen. It's more likely they get a 3 or 4 seed, but you never know.

 

[Fade]

No way the second seed is happening. First off neither Vikings or Eagles are dropping two of their next 4 games. Lastly Seattle's remaining schedule is brutal. Jags( elite defense/ running game) on the road, Incredibly balanced Rams team at the Clink where Hawks have layed stinkers this year, Cowboys on the Road with a Hungry Zeke back, Cardinals at the Clink with Palmer likely being back. Brutal remaining schedule. You wan't Rams to lose Sunday 100%. We want the division.

Don't Need the Vikings to drop, give them the #1.

#2 is between the Seahawks & Eagles if they lose to the Rams and 1 other game. With the Saints losing 1 more.

Hypothetical

#1 Vikings 13-3 or 14-2.
#2 Seahawks 12-4 (head to head tie breaker over the Eagles.)
#3 Eagles 12-4.
#4 11-5 NFC South Division Winner. (Saints need to drop 1 more.)
#5 Rams 12-4 or 11-5 (Seahawks have head to head tie breaker if 12-4.)
#6 NFC South 2nd place team.

This is a plausible outcome especially if the Rams win on Sunday, and the proper outcome for Seahawks fans to root for. (But could become very likely in two weeks if things go right.)

Just to clarify I'm not saying it's likely now, just what Hawk fans should be rooting for.

But, but, the division???? Some would ask.

-> See the last 2 yrs. <- Getting a 1st round bye is everything. There isn't much diff between being a WC or non bye week div winner % wise going to the Superbowl, but the % swings big time if you can get that 1st round bye. Like 4x more likely.

Fun Fact: The Seahawks have never made a Superbowl without a 1st round bye. So why would any Seahawks fan root against that possibility? (Essentially what you are doing if you are rooting for the Eagles to win.) I would say it is even more critical this year due to the early bye the team had, they are going to need a week off to get ready for a playoff run, they will be too beat up to do so otherwise.

Go Rams.