Rat
Well-known member
I got tired of hearing people say you don’t need to draft a QB in the first round because Brady was a 6th rounder, Russell Wilson went in the 3rd, etc. I was curious about the hit/miss rate for QBs taken recently, so I looked at every draft from 2000-2020 to see. I didn’t include anyone from the last two years because I think that’s too early to make a judgment, although a number of those players have been cut from the team that drafted him, and it’s probably safe to call guys like Zach Wilson a bust. This list is strictly franchise QBs, I didn’t list guys who became quality backups as “successes”. This is also strictly for the team that drafted them. Like Geno Smith killed it with the Seahawks last season, but the Jets didn’t invest a second round pick and 30 starts, just for him to figure it out a decade later with a different team.
Some of these are based on my personal opinions and could be a bit debatable.
First Round
Successes
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith (debatable)
Aaron Rodgers
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Failures
Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young (debatable)
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Success Rate: 25 of 59 (42.4%)
Second Round
Successes
Jalen Hurts
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo (debatable)
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Drew Brees (32nd pick)
Failures
Drew Lock
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Geno Smith
Brock Oswelier
Jimmy Clausen
Pat White
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasasopo
Success Rate: 6 of 22 (27.2%)
Third Round
Successes
Russell Wilson
Matt Schaub
Failures
Will Grier
Mason Rudolph
Davis Webb
C.J. Beathard
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Garrett Grayson
Sean Mannion
Mike Glennon
Nick Foles (very debatable)
Ryan Mallett
Terrelle Pryor
Colt McCoy
Kevin O’Connell
Trent Edwards
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Josh McCown
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman
It’s telling that Russell Wilson was the most recent third-round pick to become a franchise QB, and that was 11 drafts ago. Some might list Foles as a success, but while that postseason run was magical, and obviously nobody in Philadelphia regrets that pick, Foles was not a franchise QB and was eventually used as a throw-in in a trade to acquire Sam Bradford. It’s telling that he has switched teams six times in 11 years, and he was awful for most of them.
Success Rate: 2 of 27 (10.7%)
Round Four
Successes
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard
Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer
Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)
Fifth Round
Successes
None
Failures
Jake Fromm
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Mike White
Nathan Peterman
Kevin Hogan
Brett Hundley
Aaron Murray
A.J. McCarron
Ricky Stanzi
TJ Yates
Nathan Enderle
John Skelton
Jonathan Crompton
Rhett Bomar
Nate Davis
John David Booty
Dennis Dixon
Josh Johnson
Erik Ainge
Jeff Rowe
Troy Smith
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Craig Krenzel
Brian St. Pierre
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
Mike McMahon
AJ Feeley
Tee Martin
Literally zero franchise QBs in the fifth round since 2000. In fact, to find one, you have to go all the way back to Bob Waterfield in 1944.
Success Rate: 0 of 35 (0%)
Sixth Round
Successes
Tyrod Taylor (very debatable)
Marc Bulger
Tom Brady
Failures
Jake Luton
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Brad Kayaa
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Lindley
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
Colt Brennan
Andre Woodson
Jordan Palmer
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O’Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergeon Wynn
Tom Husak
JaJuan Seider
Success Rate: 3 of 47 (6.4%)
Seventh Round
Successes
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick (very debatable)
Failures
Cole McDonald
Ben DiNucci
Tommy Stevens
Nate Stanley
Danny Etling
Alex McGough
Logan Woodside
Chad Kelly
Brandon Doughty
Trevor Siemian
Brad Sorensen
Zac Dysert
BJ Daniels
Sean Renfree
BJ Coleman
Chandler Harnish
Greg McElroy
Levi Brown
Sean Canfield
Zac Robinson
Matt Flynn (debatable)
Alex Brink
Tyler Thigpen
DJ Shockley
James Kilian
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlett
Matt Mauck
BJ Symons
Bradlee Van Pelt
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Ronald Curry
Wes Pate
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton
Some of these are based on my personal opinions and could be a bit debatable.
First Round
Successes
Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones (debatable)
Josh Allen
Lamar Jackson
Patrick Mahomes
DeShaun Watson
Jared Goff
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Sam Bradford (debatable)
Matthew Stafford
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Jay Cutler
Alex Smith (debatable)
Aaron Rodgers
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
Carson Palmer
Michael Vick
Chad Pennington
Failures
Jordan Love
Dwayne Haskins
Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Mitchell Trubisky
Carson Wentz (debatable)
Paxton Lynch
Jameis Winston
Marcus Mariota
Blake Bortles
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
EJ Manuel
Ryan Tannehill (debatable)
Brandon Weeden
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Jamarcus Russell
Brady Quinn
Vince Young (debatable)
Matt Leinart
Jason Campbell
JP Losman
Byron Leftwich
Kyle Boller
Rex Grossman
David Carr
Joey Harrington
Patrick Ramsey
Success Rate: 25 of 59 (42.4%)
Second Round
Successes
Jalen Hurts
Derek Carr
Jimmy Garoppolo (debatable)
Andy Dalton
Colin Kaepernick
Drew Brees (32nd pick)
Failures
Drew Lock
DeShone Kizer
Christian Hackenberg
Geno Smith
Brock Oswelier
Jimmy Clausen
Pat White
Brian Brohm
Chad Henne
Kevin Kolb
John Beck
Drew Stanton
Kellen Clemens
Tarvaris Jackson
Quincy Carter
Marques Tuiasasopo
Success Rate: 6 of 22 (27.2%)
Third Round
Successes
Russell Wilson
Matt Schaub
Failures
Will Grier
Mason Rudolph
Davis Webb
C.J. Beathard
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Garrett Grayson
Sean Mannion
Mike Glennon
Nick Foles (very debatable)
Ryan Mallett
Terrelle Pryor
Colt McCoy
Kevin O’Connell
Trent Edwards
Charlie Whitehurst
Brodie Croyle
Charlie Frye
Andrew Walter
David Greene
Dave Ragone
Chris Simms
Josh McCown
Giovanni Carmazzi
Chris Redman
It’s telling that Russell Wilson was the most recent third-round pick to become a franchise QB, and that was 11 drafts ago. Some might list Foles as a success, but while that postseason run was magical, and obviously nobody in Philadelphia regrets that pick, Foles was not a franchise QB and was eventually used as a throw-in in a trade to acquire Sam Bradford. It’s telling that he has switched teams six times in 11 years, and he was awful for most of them.
Success Rate: 2 of 27 (10.7%)
Round Four
Successes
Dak Prescott
Kirk Cousins
Kyle Orton
David Garrard
Failures
Jacob Eason
James Morgan
Ryan Finley
Jarrett Stidham
Kyle Lauletta
Joshua Dobbs
Conner Cook
Cardale Jones
Bryce Petty
Logan Thomas
Tom Savage
Matt Barkley
Ryan Nassib
Tyler Wilson
Landry Jones
Mike Kafka
Stephen McGee
Isaiah Stanback
Stefan Lefors
Luke McCown
Seneca Wallace
Rohan Davey
Chris Weinke
Sage Rosenfels
Jesse Palmer
Success Rate: 4 of 29 (13.8%)
Fifth Round
Successes
None
Failures
Jake Fromm
Easton Stick
Clayton Thorson
Mike White
Nathan Peterman
Kevin Hogan
Brett Hundley
Aaron Murray
A.J. McCarron
Ricky Stanzi
TJ Yates
Nathan Enderle
John Skelton
Jonathan Crompton
Rhett Bomar
Nate Davis
John David Booty
Dennis Dixon
Josh Johnson
Erik Ainge
Jeff Rowe
Troy Smith
Ingle Martin
Omar Jacobs
Dan Orlovsky
Adrian McPherson
Craig Krenzel
Brian St. Pierre
Randy Fasani
Kurt Kittner
Brandon Doman
Craig Nall
Mike McMahon
AJ Feeley
Tee Martin
Literally zero franchise QBs in the fifth round since 2000. In fact, to find one, you have to go all the way back to Bob Waterfield in 1944.
Success Rate: 0 of 35 (0%)
Sixth Round
Successes
Tyrod Taylor (very debatable)
Marc Bulger
Tom Brady
Failures
Jake Luton
Gardner Minshew
Trace McSorley
Luke Falk
Tanner Lee
Brad Kayaa
Nate Sudfeld
Jake Rudock
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel
Zach Mettenberger
David Fales
Keith Wenning
Tajh Boyd
Garrett Gilbert
Ryan Lindley
Rusty Smith
Dan LeFevour
Joe Webb
Tony Pike
Tom Brandstater
Mike Teel
Keith Null
Curtis Painter
Colt Brennan
Andre Woodson
Jordan Palmer
Reggie McNeal
Bruce Gradkowski
Derek Anderson
Andy Hall
Josh Harris
Jim Sorgi
Jeff Smoker
Drew Henson
Brooks Bollinger
Kliff Kingsbury
JT O’Sullivan
Steve Bellisari
Josh Booty
Josh Heupel
Spergeon Wynn
Tom Husak
JaJuan Seider
Success Rate: 3 of 47 (6.4%)
Seventh Round
Successes
Matt Cassel
Ryan Fitzpatrick (very debatable)
Failures
Cole McDonald
Ben DiNucci
Tommy Stevens
Nate Stanley
Danny Etling
Alex McGough
Logan Woodside
Chad Kelly
Brandon Doughty
Trevor Siemian
Brad Sorensen
Zac Dysert
BJ Daniels
Sean Renfree
BJ Coleman
Chandler Harnish
Greg McElroy
Levi Brown
Sean Canfield
Zac Robinson
Matt Flynn (debatable)
Alex Brink
Tyler Thigpen
DJ Shockley
James Kilian
Cody Pickett
Casey Bramlett
Matt Mauck
BJ Symons
Bradlee Van Pelt
Gibran Hamdan
Ken Dorsey
Seth Burford
Jeff Kelly
Ronald Curry
Wes Pate
Tim Rattay
Jarious Jackson
Joe Hamilton