entropyrulesall
New member
(Disclaimer: This post is not looking ahead/over the Saints. My goal is more to examine the NFC playoff picture after the wild card round and see what it means now that our pool of opponents has been reduced.)
To reach NJ, Hawks must beat two of the these three: Saints, 49ers, and Panthers.
We played all 3 during the regular season:
SEA 12 CAR 7 (AWAY wk 1)
SEA 29 SF 3 (HOME wk 2)
SEA 34 NO 7 (HOME wk 13)
SF 19 SEA 17 (AWAY wk 14)
Results: Hawks go 3-1, score 92 points to 36 against for an average margin of victory of 14(!) points. Interestingly the turnover margin excluding Niners week 2 was even at 3-3 with the overall margin for all 4 games at 8-4 favoring Hawks.
Now for the passing and running yardage totals:
W (AWAY wk 1) SEA P: 300 R: 70 CAR P: 125 R: 134 TOP: even
W (HOME wk 2) SEA P: 118 R: 172 SF P: 107 R: 100 TOP: SEA by 13 mins
W (HOME wk 13) SEA: 302 R: 127 NO P: 144 R: 44 TOP: SEA by 7 mins
L (AWAY wk 14) SEA: 178 R: 86 SF P: 155 R: 163 TOP: SF by 5 mins
Incredibly all 4 opposing QB's averaged 133 yds passing even with two of those games on the road.
My memory all of 4 games was of physical, tough battles where we tried to drain the opponent into submission with our running game and opportunistic passing and defense. When the running game struggled, it gave the other team a chance. The SF loss shows what happens if a team can run on the Hawks.
I think formula for success, as usual, is the Hawks stuffing the run early to set the tone and force some punts. The offense will be able to chunk away at these defenses and score enough that when the 4th quarter comes around teams will be shooting themselves in the foot trying to comeback by throwing at the LOB. If we can't get Beast going, I like that Russell can put the team on his shoulder and throw for 300 as he did against the Panthers.
Teams who stop the run advance in the playoffs. This is highly critical for Hawks in particular. Seattle went 7-0 when holding an opponent under 100 yds rushing (average of 42 yds a game) while in all 3 losses the opposing team gained at least 100 and averaged 137 yards. In the Panthers victory they gave up 134 rushing yds, which is right on par for those 3 losses.
I expect the Hawks will have to step their game up because upsets are common in the playoffs and I believe all 3 of these opponents can come in and upset if the Hawks don't bring their 'A' game. In the end, no matter the matchup, the most physical team on game day is going to win. The Hawks have distinct advantages on defense and with the 12th Man. I expect them to come out and punch their opponent in the face and not back down all game.
This casual look at the numbers shows if the Hawks play their game on their terms on their field, they have no excuse to not be playing on Feb 2 in NJ. This isn't overconfidence, just relaxed optimism.
To reach NJ, Hawks must beat two of the these three: Saints, 49ers, and Panthers.
We played all 3 during the regular season:
SEA 12 CAR 7 (AWAY wk 1)
SEA 29 SF 3 (HOME wk 2)
SEA 34 NO 7 (HOME wk 13)
SF 19 SEA 17 (AWAY wk 14)
Results: Hawks go 3-1, score 92 points to 36 against for an average margin of victory of 14(!) points. Interestingly the turnover margin excluding Niners week 2 was even at 3-3 with the overall margin for all 4 games at 8-4 favoring Hawks.
Now for the passing and running yardage totals:
W (AWAY wk 1) SEA P: 300 R: 70 CAR P: 125 R: 134 TOP: even
W (HOME wk 2) SEA P: 118 R: 172 SF P: 107 R: 100 TOP: SEA by 13 mins
W (HOME wk 13) SEA: 302 R: 127 NO P: 144 R: 44 TOP: SEA by 7 mins
L (AWAY wk 14) SEA: 178 R: 86 SF P: 155 R: 163 TOP: SF by 5 mins
Incredibly all 4 opposing QB's averaged 133 yds passing even with two of those games on the road.
My memory all of 4 games was of physical, tough battles where we tried to drain the opponent into submission with our running game and opportunistic passing and defense. When the running game struggled, it gave the other team a chance. The SF loss shows what happens if a team can run on the Hawks.
I think formula for success, as usual, is the Hawks stuffing the run early to set the tone and force some punts. The offense will be able to chunk away at these defenses and score enough that when the 4th quarter comes around teams will be shooting themselves in the foot trying to comeback by throwing at the LOB. If we can't get Beast going, I like that Russell can put the team on his shoulder and throw for 300 as he did against the Panthers.
Teams who stop the run advance in the playoffs. This is highly critical for Hawks in particular. Seattle went 7-0 when holding an opponent under 100 yds rushing (average of 42 yds a game) while in all 3 losses the opposing team gained at least 100 and averaged 137 yards. In the Panthers victory they gave up 134 rushing yds, which is right on par for those 3 losses.
I expect the Hawks will have to step their game up because upsets are common in the playoffs and I believe all 3 of these opponents can come in and upset if the Hawks don't bring their 'A' game. In the end, no matter the matchup, the most physical team on game day is going to win. The Hawks have distinct advantages on defense and with the 12th Man. I expect them to come out and punch their opponent in the face and not back down all game.
This casual look at the numbers shows if the Hawks play their game on their terms on their field, they have no excuse to not be playing on Feb 2 in NJ. This isn't overconfidence, just relaxed optimism.
