Are we in the Worst Case Scenario?

[massari]

Wasn't it awesome to have an OC like Waldron that game-planned to run teams out of a 2-High shell, Russell's Kryptonite, so we'd start getting the single-high looks Russell can actually read and succeed against? And also awesome to have an O-Line and a back that could exploit the soft box? I call that good, smart football and good game-planning.

Kryptonite indeed

 

[olyfan63]

Without Wilson to put the fear of God into DCs, unfortunately teams are going to now stack the box where Penny was pedestrian in those situations. Where they're at right now they are one of the worst offenses in football.

Potentially a fair argument, but leaves out key information, and ultimately is just a partisan Russell-as-deity argument. Sorry, Russell doesn't deserve the deification many here have given him. He had both QB superpowers and glaring weaknesses.

Carroll will choose a QB he believes can get the ball deep down the field and make the defense play the whole field. Without seeing that QB and in what way he threatens defenses, like perhaps throwing timing routes on schedule, it's unknowable what level of success Penny will have this season. Sad that you're ready to just pack it in and accept defeat at such an early juncture with so little information to work with.

What is clear and knowable is this: Russell is a much, much more effective QB when he has a legitimate running game threat to keep the defense honest.

 

[Fade]

Potentially a fair argument, but leaves out key information, and ultimately is just a partisan Russell-as-deity argument. Sorry, Russell doesn't deserve the deification many here have given him. He had both QB superpowers and glaring weaknesses.

Carroll will choose a QB he believes can get the ball deep down the field and make the defense play the whole field. Without seeing that QB and in what way he threatens defenses, like perhaps throwing timing routes on schedule, it's unknowable what level of success Penny will have this season. Sad that you're ready to just pack it in and accept defeat at such an early juncture with so little information to work with.

What is clear and knowable is this: Russell is a much, much more effective QB when he has a legitimate running game threat to keep the defense honest.

Teams game planned to take away the deep ball which led to light boxes. They will not be going forward. They are going to load the box, crowd the LoS, to put the ball in Lock's (or whoever it is) hands.

Without a trade for a significant veteran QB, or hitting the lottery in the draft, this is what we'll see.

 

[olyfan63]

Kryptonite indeed

Oh really? Let's see those numbers against the RAMS and the CARDS, and notably, the last BILLS game. 2-High was ABSOLUTE KRYPTONITE for Russell against teams with a LEGIT PASS RUSH. You know, like playoff-quality teams? Teams that saw Russell often enough to know his weaknesses and game-plan for them?

So would you like to chart the Rams Wildcard playoff game, and Russell's brilliant play in that? Before and after that ridiculous pick-6? Or Russell vs the Rams in general, going back to the Jeff Fisher era?

Against teams that don't have pass rushers that can catch Wilson, where he can scramble around for 5 seconds or more, Russell will have some success, because as he runs around, his approach is "Where's Tyler??" and once he sees Lockett, he can read the *individual coverage* on Lockett and know where to throw the ball. That is indeed one of Russell's QB superpowers. (every now and then he looks for DK too)

So, nice cherry-pick attempt; what's your point, that Russell shines vs. crappy teams? Well, Russell also struggles against teams with great QBs, having this season lost QB duels to all-time greats like Taylor Heinicke, Nick Foles, and Colt McCoy. OK, while the QB duel loss to past SB MVP Foles was legit, Foles played great, Russell still handed the game to the Bears.

 

[olyfan63]

Teams game planned to take away the deep ball which led to light boxes. They will not be going forward. They are going to load the box, crowd the LoS, to put the ball in Lock's (or whoever it is) hands.

Without a trade for a significant veteran QB, or hitting the lottery in the draft, this is what we'll see.

Fair enough. It's pretty much a which-came-first-chicken-or-the-egg argument. A strong running game leads to stacked boxes and passing opportunities, especially off play-action. A truly threatening deep passing game, one of Russell's QB superpowers, does cause opposing D's to commit more players to the deep passing game, improving run game prospects. Hmm, that sounds like "Pete-ball", as designed.

 

[massari]

Oh really? Let's see those numbers against the RAMS and the CARDS, and notably, the last BILLS game. 2-High was ABSOLUTE KRYPTONITE for Russell against teams with a LEGIT PASS RUSH. You know, like playoff-quality teams? Teams that saw Russell often enough to know his weaknesses and game-plan for them?

So would you like to chart the Rams Wildcard playoff game, and Russell's brilliant play in that? Before and after that ridiculous pick-6? Or Russell vs the Rams in general, going back to the Jeff Fisher era?

Against teams that don't have pass rushers that can catch Wilson, where he can scramble around for 5 seconds or more, Russell will have some success, because as he runs around, his approach is "Where's Tyler??" and once he sees Lockett, he can read the *individual coverage* on Lockett and know where to throw the ball. That is indeed one of Russell's QB superpowers. (every now and then he looks for DK too)

So, nice cherry-pick attempt; what's your point, that Russell shines vs. crappy teams? Well, Russell also struggles against teams with great QBs, having this season lost QB duels to all-time greats like Taylor Heinicke, Nick Foles, and Colt McCoy. OK, while the QB duel loss to past SB MVP Foles was legit, Foles played great, Russell still handed the game to the Bears.

You stated his kryptonite is cover 2. I provided stats that say otherwise.



So now it's "he's good against cover 2, just not against top defenses".



Who's cherry picking here? Concession accepted!

Side note: In the future you may want to avoid honoring Rashaad Penny's historic run to close out 2021, as every single one of those teams were bottom feeders with bad run defenses, and a struggling Cards D. The only good D he faced was the Rams and he struggled. Can't praise Penny then dump on Wilson.

 

[olyfan63]

You stated his kryptonite is cover 2. I provided stats that say otherwise.



So now it's "he's good against cover 2, just not against top defenses".

Who's cherry picking here? Concession accepted!

Side note: In the future you may want to avoid honoring Rashaad Penny's historic run to close out 2021, as every single one of those teams were bottom feeders with bad run defenses, and a struggling Cards D. The only good D he faced was the Rams and he struggled. Can't praise Penny then dump on Wilson.

In other words, you have no case, so you'll try to bluster your way through it, and diss Penny in the process. Concession by bluster accepted.

It's pretty simple, if teams can't get pressure on Russell, it doesn't matter what D look they run, he'll scramble around and find Tyler or DK, or take off for a first down.

It's also pretty simple, come playoff time, the opponents tend to have a good pass rush, and dedicate extra attention to taking away Russell's strengths. The best example is the 2020 Wildcard round game where the Rams frustrated Russell and the Seahawks offense. Russell's statline was 11-27 with a pick 6.

In case you've forgotten the defensive looks the Rams use to frustrate Russell, go to about 9:02 in the video where Samuel Gold spells it out. Hint: It's not single high.

Isn't the point of paying a franchise QB for him to win big games, playoff games, for his team? However, as Samuel Gold notes, it's not all on Russell. Brian Schottenheimer HAD TO KNOW what the Rams would do on D against Russell, and utterly failed to come up with a game plan that would give Russell and the Hawks offense a fighting chance against that Rams D. Wilson's fault? Schotty's fault? Sure, the Rams are one of the few teams in the league that can consistently get home to the QB with a 4 man rush, but the the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had no problem solving that same Rams defense the next week.

SEAHAWKS VS RAMS 2020 WILDCARD GAME BREAKDOWN, HOW DID THE RAMS FRUSTRATE RUSSELL WILSON?



We'll see this coming season how your Penny predictions age. Penny was injured and left the game in the week 15 game vs the Rams. DJ Dallas got his carries instead.

 

[massari]

In other words, you have no case, so you'll try to bluster your way through it, and diss Penny in the process. Concession by bluster accepted.

It's pretty simple, if teams can't get pressure on Russell, it doesn't matter what D look they run, he'll scramble around and find Tyler or DK, or take off for a first down.

It's also pretty simple, come playoff time, the opponents tend to have a good pass rush, and dedicate extra attention to taking away Russell's strengths. The best example is the 2020 Wildcard round game where the Rams frustrated Russell and the Seahawks offense. Russell's statline was 11-27 with a pick 6.

In case you've forgotten the defensive looks the Rams use to frustrate Russell, go to about 9:02 in the video where Samuel Gold spells it out. Hint: It's not single high.

Isn't the point of paying a franchise QB for him to win big games, playoff games, for his team? However, as Samuel Gold notes, it's not all on Russell. Brian Schottenheimer HAD TO KNOW what the Rams would do on D against Russell, and utterly failed to come up with a game plan that would give Russell and the Hawks offense a fighting chance against that Rams D. Wilson's fault? Schotty's fault? Sure, the Rams are one of the few teams in the league that can consistently get home to the QB with a 4 man rush, but the the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had no problem solving that same Rams defense the next week.

SEAHAWKS VS RAMS 2020 WILDCARD GAME BREAKDOWN, HOW DID THE RAMS FRUSTRATE RUSSELL WILSON?



We'll see this coming season how your Penny predictions age. Penny was injured and left the game in the week 15 game vs the Rams. DJ Dallas got his carries instead.

I've never witnessed such a blatant example of cherry picking and moving the goalposts all at once.

 

[Fade]

Fair enough. It's pretty much a which-came-first-chicken-or-the-egg argument. A strong running game leads to stacked boxes and passing opportunities, especially off play-action. A truly threatening deep passing game, one of Russell's QB superpowers, does cause opposing D's to commit more players to the deep passing game, improving run game prospects. Hmm, that sounds like "Pete-ball", as designed.

The difference between Pete Ball and Waldron Ball is that before Waldron showed up they used to run headon into loaded boxes, over and over. (See the DAL playoff game.) "We're gonna run it no matter how the defense is playing us" philosophy.

Waldron brought the Rams system where they call both a pass and a run nearly every play, The QB then has to read the defense, and check to the appropriate play by keying a specific defender.

When Carson got injured teams stopped respecting Seattle as a running team due to Penny being oft injured and MIA for most of the last 2 seasons, hell most of his entire career up to that point, and started sitting back in shell coverage. Penny was like a bolt of lightning, getting to feast on light box after light box, finally healthy off his ACL injury. It'll never be that good for him ever again.

He is a very explosive runner, but without a significant upgrade at QB teams are going to gameplan to stop him. Teams are going to force the QB to beat them, not Penny.

He should still rip off some pretty big runs here and there when he can squirm free, but most of the time it's going to be tough sledding, with little headway being made. 3rd and long, Drew Lock better get used to that down and distance.

 

[ElvisInBlue]

The draft will tell us a lot. If the brain trust builds the trenches (preferably weighted toward defense) and doesn’t reach for players at non premium positions (or QB), we will know the rebuild is real.

If they go for a QB early it’s a clear indication they think they can bandaid the roster and we’re back to Groundhog Day until new ownership arrives.

 

[olyfan63]

The difference between Pete Ball and Waldron Ball is that before Waldron showed up they used to run headon into loaded boxes, over and over. (See the DAL playoff game.) "We're gonna run it no matter how the defense is playing us" philosophy.

Waldron brought the Rams system where they call both a pass and a run nearly every play, The QB then has to read the defense, and check to the appropriate play by keying a specific defender.

When Carson got injured teams stopped respecting Seattle as a running team due to Penny being oft injured and MIA for most of the last 2 seasons, hell most of his entire career up to that point, and started sitting back in shell coverage. Penny was like a bolt of lightning, getting to feast on light box after light box, finally healthy off his ACL injury. It'll never be that good for him ever again.

He is a very explosive runner, but without a significant upgrade at QB teams are going to gameplan to stop him. Teams are going to force the QB to beat them, not Penny.

He should still rip off some pretty big runs here and there when he can squirm free, but most of the time it's going to be tough sledding, with little headway being made. 3rd and long, Drew Lock better get used to that down and distance.

I appreciate your point of view and the way you explained it.
2021 Opposing DC pre-game: "OK guys, first we gotta stop this Russell Wilson guy and his deep throws. They aint got nobody else can hurt us." Post-game: "WTF, who is this R. Penny who lit us up?"

2022 Opposing DC pre-game: "OK guys, first we gotta stop this Rashaad Penny guy and their run game. Force their scrub QB to throw, he aint no threat." Post-game: "TBD..."

Like you, I am SO OVER years of Pete's "impose our will" crap, i.e., running into loaded boxes instead of taking what the defense is giving. I will however, give Pete at least partial credit for FINALLY seeing the light and bringing in a guy like Waldron.

Various people sang the praises of the OL play during the last part of the season, particularly rookie Jake Curhan, who seemingly came from nowhere Reportedly there were Phil Haynes sightings mixed in there too. Maybe moving on from Solari will allow some OLs who are a better fit for Waldron's scheme to emerge. Looking for reasons for optimism wherever they can be found...

 

[HawkInNinerLand]

Devil's Advocate. Try not to laugh me out of the building...

Let's say we roll with Lock. He wins the job outright. Let's say if, BIG IF, based on recent history, Carson and/or Penny et al, can stay healthy, providing that much needed bruising running game PC covets, keeping the offense on the field, the defense off of it, keeping opposing defenses honest, taking pressure off of Lock to be the hero all the time, freeing up positive yards off of play action, getting the ball out fast and efficiently. Perhaps not an offense that would make many highlight reels, but efficient and productive.

By golly Watson my good man it's so crazy it could work.

Irony is now we see a different landscape with no Carson and Geno didnt impress. One thing, and I love Pete to no end, Seahawks lack is originality. The year of Beast quake was the last of creativity and it's been conservative ball. Joys of winning. Seahawks need to have some fun. Seems a loose team that is still filled with talent might be the answer and if nothing else, give us the fan, something to cheer for. I don't want to lose my voice at another game we have no shot at. Russ did that to me.