Are we going to see a change in offensive approach?

[Scottemojo]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KennethArthuRS/status/648713559015190528[/tweet]

I saw this.
In Bevell we trust, though.

 

[Siouxhawk]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KennethArthuRS/status/648713559015190528[/tweet]

When you're running back punts and kickoffs for touchdowns and hitting your tight end for a 30-yard score, you don't get as many red zone chances. But I'll take that tradeoff

 

[McGruff]

The Seahawks ran the ball on average 4 more times a game last year than what they passed. We ran 32 times per game and passed 28 times. All we would need to do to shift that to balanced is pass 2 more times a game. We're not that far off.

And in 2015 we've so far way eclipsed that. Part of that is playing from behind. Part of that is not having Marshawn healthy.

 

[McGruff]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/KennethArthuRS/status/648713559015190528[/tweet]

How many total redzone plays do we have?

 

[Bobblehead]

Rawls looked mostly ineffective in his first three preseason games playing with Archer. Then in the 4th game Rawls was paired with BJ Daniels and Rawls went off in that game. For all of Daniels flaws at QB, he is a master of running read option.

When the read option is run effectively it really loosens things up in the running game. In the same manner, an effective quick passing game forces linebackers to stay cautious. These two aspects in concert (when combined with hurry up) are the foundation of the Chip Kelly offense.

This is why Seattle's offense looks best in the 2 minute drill. The offense Seattle runs in those situations is similar to a Kelly offense. It's an offense that not only opens up the run, but suits our QB very nicely.

The problem is, this kind of offense doesn't always lend itself to running effectively in obvious run situations. I think this season has shown us just how under-rated the 2011-2014 Seahawk offensive lines were in regards to run blocking. Seattle was #1 in the NFL last season in power run situations, IIRC. This year it feels like we're average at best.

This year, it feels like Seattle always struggles to run the ball early, until Wilson starts getting some mojo going with his arm and feet, and then after Wilson starts rolling the run game starts opening up. Part of that is passing to set up the run. Part of it is Wilson keeping a few read option plays and turning them into nice plays.

And of course, we need teams to respect the run game to make play action viable, and without selling play action our pass protection suffers.

I think the reason why our offense 'feels' underwhelming this year is because every aspect has become co-dependent. We can't pass well if we can't threaten some kind of run and we can't run if we aren't passing and running read option well. The previous Seahawk teams could typically run at will against most opponents. So far this year Seattle has run the ball okay after setting up the run with the pass, but they don't look like a team that can impose their will yet.

Couldn't agree with you more.

You can see by this stat, when Russ runs, Lynch's average goes from 2.4 ypc in the 1st half to over 5 in the 2nd half.
Coincidence? No, it's the same way for last year and the year before.

OK this is Wilson's 1st and 2nd half splits..

BY HALF CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
1ST HALF 19 26 165 73.1 6.35 32 0 1 4 73.4 5 23 4.6 10 0
2ND HALF 28 41 258 68.3 6.29 24 3 1 4 99.4 12 84 7.0 17 0

Lynch's half.
BY HALF ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD FUM LST
1ST HALF 19 46 2.4 11 0 3 19 6.3 12 0 0 0
2ND HALF 12 67 5.6 24 0 4 14 3.5 8 0 0 0

 

[themunn]

I think we've been heavily run slanted for two reasons: to bring Wilson along slowly (which is looking to be a great idea), and because Wilson's ability to run has slanted both our run attempts, but also our yards. Take away his 800 yards rushing and we're a middle of the pack rushing team last year.

We'd still have been 11th in rushing without a single rushing yard from Wilson, but given most QBs run for around 200 yards a season on scrambles anyway, we still finished around the top. Only the Cowboys were a distance above anybody else in pure RB rushing last year, and that's to be expected with a RB who hits 1800+ yards

 

[kearly]

So do you think we have the type of players on our O-Line to get to the point of imposing our will in the run game this year? Because right now it looks somewhat suspect to me.

Back when Seattle traded for Graham, our OL was projected to be Okung-Bailey-Lewis-Sweezy-Britt. Zach Miller was still on the team to help with blocking at TE.

Since then the Hawks have had changes at three of those OL spots and the team cut Miller without bothering to acquire a blocking TE replacement.

Right now, our run blocking is below average, and it's partly due to poor planning by the front office, and partly due to some last minute changes that couldn't have been foreseen in March. The FO put a lot of this on faith that things would work out.

If things DON'T work out and run blocking continues to be an issue, you'll see some tweaking on the OL later this season. Glowinsky, Lewis, and Bailey could all see action depending on how the current starting group fares. Seattle might sign a blocking TE off the street and cut a deadweight like Cooper Helfet. If things are still a problem going into the offseason, Seattle will probably look at addressing the OL with more urgency than they did the last couple years.

 

[netskier]

So do you think we have the type of players on our O-Line to get to the point of imposing our will in the run game this year? Because right now it looks somewhat suspect to me.

Back when Seattle traded for Graham, our OL was projected to be Okung-Bailey-Lewis-Sweezy-Britt. Zach Miller was still on the team to help with blocking at TE.

Since then the Hawks have had changes at three of those OL spots and the team cut Miller without bothering to acquire a blocking TE replacement.

Right now, our run blocking is below average, and it's partly due to poor planning by the front office, and partly due to some last minute changes that couldn't have been foreseen in March. The FO put a lot of this on faith that things would work out.

If things DON'T work out and run blocking continues to be an issue, you'll see some tweaking on the OL later this season. Glowinsky, Lewis, and Bailey could all see action depending on how the current starting group fares. Seattle might sign a blocking TE off the street and cut a deadweight like Cooper Helfet. If things are still a problem going into the offseason, Seattle will probably look at addressing the OL with more urgency than they did the last couple years.

I suspect that changing three of those OL spots explains big part of the current problems, and wonder if we should not temporarily reverse some of those changes while we wait for Nowak to learn the Center position. Specifically, suppose we returned Bailey from the Dog House to Left Guard, where we know that he is a good pass blocker, next to Okung who can both run and pass block. Tighten the gap between Left Guard and Center to help out Nowak while he learns. This would give us good to decent pass blocking on the left side, which happens to be Russ's blind side. Russ is getting hit and hurried too often while we wait for the line to gel.

Meanwhile, return Britt to Right Tackle, thereby restoring the right side of the line which was dominant last year in the running game. The opposition defense will send pass rushers on our Right side, and we will feed them Lynch running behind last year's dominant running blocking right side of the line. Running backs slow down pass rushers.

So this development line would be Okung-Bailey-Nowak-Sweezy-Britt which has only Nowak as a change from last year. Fewer changes means far fewer adjustments to make, and should help get the running game going sooner. If almost this line (except for Nowak) was dominant last year at the running game, then it should soon be dominant again as Nowak learns.

Minimize changes to follow the KISS principle of Keeping It Simple Stupid.

Reducing the failure profile in this way should both increase running productivity and decrease pass rusher harassment of Russ, and should do so almost immediately.

 

[olyfan63]

I suspect Pete is going to stick with the OL moves a bit longer to give them a realistic chance to pan out. Rightly so, IMO.
Pete is all about teaching and feels he and his staff can coach players up better than anyone. I'm sure Pete is/was prepared for a couple rough games for the OL, relying on the D to win games. Only problem was a Kam-less D, led to a L vs StL and even GB outcome could have been different.

It's been 2.5 games of mostly hard-to-watch games with the "new crew" on OL, with a decent 2nd half vs. Chicago, and a couple nice drives in the 2nd half vs GB. So far we've seen:

1) The running game mostly sucks. IMO, this is 50%+ Lynch not being Lynch, not being healthy, ready, explosive, 25% Lynch not trusting/knowing OL yet, and 25% OL sucking. When I say OL, I'm including TE in a lot of instances, and Graham isn't much of a blocker so far. We saw that things are better with a healthy, quick, hungry Rawls running the ball. He's no Beastmode (when ML is in top form), but is very serviceable.

2) This OL group increasingly gives Russell "real" pockets to pass from. It's an unprecedented sight here... and Russell is so surprised that half the time he doesn't know what to do. It throws his rhythm off. Instead of 1-2-3 elude (onrushing DT), 4-5-6 scramble (from DE whose beaten his man) and 7-8-9 try-to-find, now he's expected to do 1-2-3 read, 4 throw. Not since 2012 has he had receivers who could consistently get some separation, and this group can and does, with Graham, Lockett, and as always, Baldwin. Russell still hasn't quite adjusted to having immediately open receivers. It's still a shock to him every time he sees it. And he hasn't learned yet how to throw jump balls to Graham, much less Matthews.

I expect Pete and Cable to mostly stick with the position changes, and for things to gradually improve, and the Seahawks to have a rockin-and-rolling hot (balanced) offense by the time the playoffs roll around. Recall in SB XLVIII, the pregame national mediot hype was all about how would Seattle stop Denver's passing offense, and they practically ignored the real key matchup, how would Denver's decimated secondary and suspect pass defense stop down Seattle's slightly-better-than-average passing attack. (They couldn't)

I think this year, Seattle will gradually improve across the board on Offense, both run and pass, and present exploitable matchups against nearly any opponent. IMO, we lost SBXLIX not on that fateful play, but on the couple offensive possessions where we had a 10 point lead and the Offense played with ZERO urgency, or just plain SUCKED, 3-and-outs, and gave the ball right back to the NE Offense, didn't allow our D to rest before facing Brady again. We saw that in the GB game this year; Seattle got a lead, then sucked offensively after that. The difference is, this year we have more passing game weapons, but the process of learning to use them effectively takes time.

When Pete says "balance" I think he means an offense that can "score again" in 2nd half with the lead, and take a 1-score game to a 2-score, and a 2-score to a 3-score.

 

[hoxrox]

I'd like to see more runs out of the I formation with Truckuafu lead blocking.

 

[scutterhawk]

Pete will give up his teeth before he gives up being run-first.

The trades for first Harvin and then Graham and the drafting of Richardson argue otherwise, or at least argue for a balanced approach rather than run first. I for one really believe that Pete and John have been moving this direction since seeing RW is a franchise QB.

Russ getting $22 mil/ year means he has to start shouldering some of the load. I think this is the natural evolution of a team paying the franchise. That being said, we aren't going to 60-40. I'm thinking true 50-50 balance, which is a proven winning formula.

$22 mill has nothing to do with Pete's scheme of things.
Pete will go with whatever is working best, as all really smart Coaches do.
Packaging.......IF Pete thinks Rawls & Jackson can help with the running game, and the O-Line can start showing more push up front for the "Run Game", then his formula won't have to be tweaked a whole bunch, but it's also a possibility that Russell Wilson and his Receivers get on a fast track, and that too could open up the playbook, which would also be a win-win for Pete.

 

[scutterhawk]

Pete will give up his teeth before he gives up being run-first.

The trades for first Harvin and then Graham and the drafting of Richardson argue otherwise, or at least argue for a balanced approach rather than run first. I for one really believe that Pete and John have been moving this direction since seeing RW is a franchise QB.

Not necessarily.

Even though Pete's always believed in punishing defense and run game first, he still covets the skill positions. He's said it 100 times, I wanna run the ball because that's what wins in January, but I also want to mix in explosive plays, because those are key to winning 2-3 games a year.

So that's the way he builds his teams, he wants that explosive player like Harvin or Graham to supplement the punishing run game.

Yep, it's just like being in the ring with a 'Lefty', as you know that it's just a matter of time that he's going to start hitting you with BOTH hands. :thfight7:

 

[capncrunch]

I suspect Pete is going to stick with the OL moves a bit longer to give them a realistic chance to pan out. Rightly so, IMO.
Pete is all about teaching and feels he and his staff can coach players up better than anyone. I'm sure Pete is/was prepared for a couple rough games for the OL, relying on the D to win games. Only problem was a Kam-less D, led to a L vs StL and even GB outcome could have been different.

It's been 2.5 games of mostly hard-to-watch games with the "new crew" on OL, with a decent 2nd half vs. Chicago, and a couple nice drives in the 2nd half vs GB. So far we've seen:

1) The running game mostly sucks. IMO, this is 50%+ Lynch not being Lynch, not being healthy, ready, explosive, 25% Lynch not trusting/knowing OL yet, and 25% OL sucking. When I say OL, I'm including TE in a lot of instances, and Graham isn't much of a blocker so far. We saw that things are better with a healthy, quick, hungry Rawls running the ball. He's no Beastmode (when ML is in top form), but is very serviceable.

2) This OL group increasingly gives Russell "real" pockets to pass from. It's an unprecedented sight here... and Russell is so surprised that half the time he doesn't know what to do. It throws his rhythm off. Instead of 1-2-3 elude (onrushing DT), 4-5-6 scramble (from DE whose beaten his man) and 7-8-9 try-to-find, now he's expected to do 1-2-3 read, 4 throw. Not since 2012 has he had receivers who could consistently get some separation, and this group can and does, with Graham, Lockett, and as always, Baldwin. Russell still hasn't quite adjusted to having immediately open receivers. It's still a shock to him every time he sees it. And he hasn't learned yet how to throw jump balls to Graham, much less Matthews.

I expect Pete and Cable to mostly stick with the position changes, and for things to gradually improve, and the Seahawks to have a rockin-and-rolling hot (balanced) offense by the time the playoffs roll around. Recall in SB XLVIII, the pregame national mediot hype was all about how would Seattle stop Denver's passing offense, and they practically ignored the real key matchup, how would Denver's decimated secondary and suspect pass defense stop down Seattle's slightly-better-than-average passing attack. (They couldn't)

I think this year, Seattle will gradually improve across the board on Offense, both run and pass, and present exploitable matchups against nearly any opponent. IMO, we lost SBXLIX not on that fateful play, but on the couple offensive possessions where we had a 10 point lead and the Offense played with ZERO urgency, or just plain SUCKED, 3-and-outs, and gave the ball right back to the NE Offense, didn't allow our D to rest before facing Brady again. We saw that in the GB game this year; Seattle got a lead, then sucked offensively after that. The difference is, this year we have more passing game weapons, but the process of learning to use them effectively takes time.

When Pete says "balance" I think he means an offense that can "score again" in 2nd half with the lead, and take a 1-score game to a 2-score, and a 2-score to a 3-score.

This is an excellent analysis. Thank you.

 

[capncrunch]

I'd like to see more runs out of the I formation with Truckuafu lead blocking.

Yes. They kept him around, which came as a surprise to some. It be interesting to compare his effectiveness in that role to Coleman. Maybe more bang for the buck with Tuck. I also like seeing him at tight end. There was mention above of our failure to replace Zach Miller as a strong blocking tight end. I think Tuck got a few snaps there vs. the Bears. I'd like to see more perhaps with Graham on the other side split out to some extent.

 

[netskier]

I agree that the analysis is excellent. It may well be that the way they are going will maximize season wins. I do believe that my suggestion would have more likely won those two very close first two games.
and I further stipulate

 

[netskier]

I further stipulate that the cost of winning those first two games by playing a more conservatively developed line as I outlined might very likely lead to fewer total season wins. I commend their courage in going for it all. I wish we had more information to help us understand this more deeply.

 

[SeahawksFanForever]

Life after Marshawn is going to be something else. One of my all time favorite players in the NFL.

 

[idahohawk]

This.

Cable's OL throughout the years are known as maulers, road graders, zone run blockers. SEA is not set up to be a pass-first team. No way, no how. This offensive line is a sieve, and that is spinning it positively.

No way we "shift" to a "pass-first" offense. These guys need to gel, maul guys, & get an identity. I look for more of the same. My primary hope, is that the defense keeps everything afloat while we wait for the OL to progress.

Pete will give up his teeth before he gives up being run-first.

 

[olyfan63]

Are Montana and Idaho allowed to agree?

Anyway, while I overall agree in generalities, I believe there are at least several other things going on here. Under the circumstances, I expect to see a very balanced offense this season, and more passing than in prior seasons.

1) First and foremost, Pete is a coach, and committed to WINNING. He will do whatever it takes to consistently give his team(s) the best possible chance to win, including adjusting to the personnel he actually has (or doesn't). Pete would change to a pure Run-And-Shoot offense if he thought that gave his team the best chance.

2) Pete observed the reasons for Super-FAIL, not just the fateful play, but all the elements around the situation. Pretty sure one of the things he wrote down would be "Not being able to get first downs and keep drives alive at crunch time, using short, high-percentage passes."

3) Pete's own tell-the-truth self-evaluation probably identified "exploiting matchups on offense" as a personal FAIL in SB49. It's possible for Pete to be so focused on doing it "my way", e.g., running on anyone, that he fails to exploit advantageous matchups. Thankfully, this wasn't such a huge problem in SB48; Denver stuffed the core of the Seattle running game; Beastmode and Turbin combined for 54 yards on 24 carries, a 2.7 Yards Per Carry average. It didn't matter in SB48, and Pete and Bevell found other ways to score and win. Kearse, Baldwin, Harvin, and Smith TD's, among others.
In SB49, Brady and Belichick exploited favorable offensive matchups to the hilt. They USED a nicked-up Tharald Simon, torching him with the much-quicker Edelman again and again.

4) Of course, you have to HAVE matchups on offense to exploit them. Hence, Pete and John went out and got Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, and even Fred Jackson.

5) Your weapons mean nothing if you're not prepared to use them when it counts, so Pete will make sure his new toys (Graham, Lockett, Jackson, etc.) get used and developed during the season. So I think we'll see Pete and Darrell work on and use the passing game extensively, even in the second half with a lead.