Milehighhawk
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Discussion around whether a team has a better chance being successful with a franchise QB and having to pay that cost, or attempting to run with an adequate QB and instead build an outstanding defense has been discussed as a side conversation in several other topics ranging from the Rams acquiring players, to discussing our departing defensive stars. This post is an attempt at an analytical evaluation and response to this question: Does a team have a better chance reaching a championship game with a very good QB or a very good Defense?
Assumptions
Quarterback
Defense
In Summary
Assumptions
- • While having both a very good QB and a very good defense is preferable, the assumption here is that it is improbable to have both for any significant length of time, and for the purpose of clarity, the two are viewed as mutually exclusive to due long term cap implications and having to pay for one or the other.
• The data set includes starting** Quarterbacks’ regular season rating for teams that reached the NFCC or AFFCC between 2000 and 2017.
• Average quarterback rating league-wide rose significantly from ~76.0 in 2000 to ~85.0 in 2017, although the top quarterback rating in a given year had no significant change over that same time period, ranging from 102 to 122. This leads one to believe that the rules changes have made it easier for QBs to perform at a high level, but the best quarterbacks have retained a similar ceiling.
• Very good quarterback play is defined by having a regular season average of 90 or greater than.
• Very good defensive play is defined by having a top 5 defense in that given year.
• Benchmarks (top5/90 rating) were chosen before any data was reviewed in an attempt to remove as much bias as possible.
• Defensive Ranking is based upon NFL Standard yards given up per game. The reason yards are used instead of scoring defense is scoring defense has a greater tendency to be impacted by offensive performance, turnovers, etc..
**Note that Nick Foles in 2017 and Tom Brady in 2001 were backups that started in the championship game.
Quarterback
- From 2000 to 2017, there have been a total of 72 teams involved in championship games (4 teams a year, times 18 years). In that span, there have been 35 unique starting quarterbacks to play in those games.
Of the total possible 72 instances, 44 (61%) have maintained a regular season rating of 90 or greater.
Of the 28 instances where season average rating was below 90, 7 instances were for a QB whose career average was greater than 90. This indicates that the potential for very QB play was present and proven but the individual didn’t live up to that potential in the regular season. Due to this, one could say that 21 of 72 (29%) instances exist where the team didn’t have very good QB play but made the championship game.
Defense
- Unlike quarterback, it is more difficult to say a team has the same defense year to year due to the amount of player turnover. For this reason, each year is considered unique even if the same team (e.g. 2013/2014 Seattle) advanced to the game.
From 2000 to 2017, of a total 72 instances, 28 (39%) had a team with a top 5 defense, with 44 (61%) not having a top 5 defense. For the curios, 13 of the 44 that were not top 5 were in the top 10.
In Summary
- • Instances where team had very good QB play: 61% (44/72)
• Instances where team had very good defense: 39% (28/72)
• Instances where both were true: 19% (14/72)
• Instances were neither were true: 19% (14/72)
- While this is certainly not a probability evaluation, as a much more extensive data set would have to be used, this small evaluation seems to point to it being easier to make the championship game if you have very good QB play versus very good defensive play.
Further, I would submit it is likely easier to maintain having a good QB once you have one, than attempting to maintain a very good defense which involves many more variables. The data in this sample seem to back that is well since there was rarely a “top 5 defense’ that repeated the championship game, while there are many examples of very good QB repeats.
This is not definitive, and I am sure many holes can be poked in this evaluation, but I enjoyed analyzing the numbers and putting it together.