A few player usage decisions I'm hoping for

[SalishHawkFan]

good writeup kearly. Thanks. What's interesting to me about the WR situation is when I look at our WR's DVOA's. Harvin's best year ever was only equal to Baldwin's rookie year. Baldwin was injured much of last season so it will be interesting to see how he looks if he stays healthy all year. Tate, meanwhile, was the 4th best WR per DVOA in the entire NFL last season. Rice was 12th, I think. If you go by DVOA's, Tate's the main man and the fight for the third spot is between Baldwin and Harvin. Obviously, that isn't the case, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in camp. Last year we had a 3 headed QB competition. This year we have quite the WR competition. This one should prove far less controversial.

 

[DavidSeven]

good writeup kearly. Thanks. What's interesting to me about the WR situation is when I look at our WR's DVOA's. Harvin's best year ever was only equal to Baldwin's rookie year. Baldwin was injured much of last season so it will be interesting to see how he looks if he stays healthy all year. Tate, meanwhile, was the 4th best WR per DVOA in the entire NFL last season. Rice was 12th, I think. If you go by DVOA's, Tate's the main man and the fight for the third spot is between Baldwin and Harvin. Obviously, that isn't the case, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in camp. Last year we had a 3 headed QB competition. This year we have quite the WR competition. This one should prove far less controversial.

Going by DVOA, Calvin Johnson is the 19th best WR in the NFL. It also says Danario Alexander is the best in the league.

Come on. Ain't no one believe that.

 

[polarbill1999]

I agree with Kearly and others on Bennett/Red. I don't see any way Red it on the team next year. On the other hand Bennett is a perfect fit for our defense. He is the prototypical run 5T/pass 3T in Pete's system. On running downs he is a + run defender at the 5 tech plus he adds good pass rush. Then on passing downs he can move over to 3T where he would still be solid against the run and ++ in the pass rushing category for a DT. That would also mean we could have a Starting Dline on run downs of Bennett, Mebane, Williams/Hill, Irvin/Clemons/Avril and then on pass downs the starting dline would be Avril/Clemons/Irvin, Mebane/Hill, Bennett, Avril/Clemons/Irvin. I love that in that case we can basically have 3 guys that are the every down starters on the dline and with one substatution we go from excellent against the run/solid against the pass to solid against the run/excellent against the pass.

I really hope Scruggs can improve on last year. I feel like he could be a very similar player to Bennett. If he does improve Bryant is completely the odd man out. Going forward for the next 3 years or so I hope our dline players can be: Bennett, Scruggs, Mebane, Hill, Williams, one other run stuffing DT, Avril, Irvin, Clemons.

 

[kearly]

I would be a terrible coach. I wouldn't want to coach peewee league. Say what you want about Pete's in game decision making or his occasional blindspots, but on the whole he's a brilliant football mind. I can't even quantify how much smarter I think he is than me. I'm just a guy.

I agree with Twilighterror on his Lynch assessment. Lynch won't always break one to the house, but he'll always break one tackle....or more. Turbin is a tough runner, but he's not in Lynch's class (who is at breaking tackles?) and there was a differenece when Turbo was in there. He'd get more yardage on swing passes, and he is definately faster, but if someone got to him quick, he'd get by that person but wasn't nearly as effective as Lynch. I agree with your assessement Kearly, that Lynch doesn't have great burst in traffic, but his running style is unique: he makes guys whiff and he's incredibly good at breaking tackles and not only keeping his momentum, but gaining some. He can actually slowly accelerate while running through a tackle. It's amazing.

I agree with Twilighterror as well. There will be many runs where Lynch is worth more in tough running situations. That said, the more reps we give Lynch the more we sacrifice explosiveness. Explosive plays = higher yards per carry. If Lynch averages 5.0 yards per carry again (an outstanding number) but Harvin and Michael are at 6.0 yards per carry in a change of pace role, you want to make sure you get them more than a token number of reps.

That plus "cheap points" are really nice for winning tight football games. I look at the agonizing close losses Seattle had last year and I see the other team making more "big plays" than we did in those games, so I think increasing explosiveness should be a goal next season since we now have the tools for it.

Kearly, what is your assessment of Turbin's style, and how do you think he will fit in ? I personally thought he had a pretty decent rookie season, and as the season went on, I actually thought he would've benefitted from more carries. I also think he will improve this year, unless he gets buried in the depth chart by Harvin and Michael. I don't see Harvin getting as many reps out of the backfield now with the addition of Michael, if Michael lives up to his billing/expectations.

I really liked Turbin as a prospect before he was a Seahawk and I think he is going to have a long NFL career. Turbin is pretty explosive himself but lacks resilience. Michael and Harvin are even more explosive than Turbin is and both have far better balance and resilience, meaning they can bounce off tacklers and keep going to extend big plays.

Basically I think Turbin is a little like Maurice Morris. Quick, decently physical, well-rounded skillset, super high-effort, but not especially good at keeping his balance through contact or breaking tackles. I think the jury is still out if he's good enough to be a top 10 starting RB, but at the very least he'd be an outstanding backup. I think he'll compete with Michael and might even hold the #2 job early on, depending on how quickly Michael picks up Tom Cable's system.

Turbin did have games last year where he looked even better than Lynch. I'm a believer in Spencer Ware too. That said, when I first put on the game compilations for Michael a couple months back, I immediately thought "wow, future megastar" almost immediately. His athleticism and burst are on an elite level, plus he's big, powerful, and resilient. I don't think he's as good as Adrian Peterson, but Peterson still feels like the best "eyeball test" comparison for me because of the size, power, athleticism, physique and explosiveness. I think Seattle has a very interesting RB situation to say the least.

That said, Michael is the future if he stays healthy, and it will be a very bright future.

 

[kearly]

good writeup kearly. Thanks. What's interesting to me about the WR situation is when I look at our WR's DVOA's. Harvin's best year ever was only equal to Baldwin's rookie year. Baldwin was injured much of last season so it will be interesting to see how he looks if he stays healthy all year. Tate, meanwhile, was the 4th best WR per DVOA in the entire NFL last season. Rice was 12th, I think. If you go by DVOA's, Tate's the main man and the fight for the third spot is between Baldwin and Harvin. Obviously, that isn't the case, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in camp. Last year we had a 3 headed QB competition. This year we have quite the WR competition. This one should prove far less controversial.

I'm not exactly sure how they calculate DVOA for receivers, but I'd guess two factors weigh very highly:

#1: Yards per target.
#2: First downs / Touchdowns.

Danario Alexander just edged out Golden Tate for being the NFL's top WR in yards per target last season. He ends up #1 in DVOA.

In the case of Harvin, most of his catches were at the line of scrimmage and that tanks his yards per target number. Further, he was catching passes from a bad quarterback with a very weak arm. IIRC, Harvin only had something like 2 catches for 20+ yards in the air last season out of 60+ grabs. That's going to tank his yards per target too.

Also, it's hard to get in the end zone or to the first down marker when you are catching the football at the line of scrimmage.

I'm not saying that DVOA is a bad stat for WRs, I just think Harvin's value goes beyond his numbers. A bubble screen to Harvin is basically a rush attempt, but with a higher average of yards gained. If team's give Harvin space for those screens, Seattle's extremely efficient offense will have an even easier time setting up manageable 3rd downs and converting them.

 

[HawkWow]

I always like Kearly's write ups and agree on his Bennett role, but I hope we seldom run Harvin out of the backfield. I'd like to see him carry the ball no more than once or twice a game... and that out of necessity, because I think he'd be almost as problematic just being used as the occasional decoy.

I wouldn't call Harvin injury prone (yet) but he is just so vaulable elsewhere. if we can't run with Lynch, Turbin and Michael...I have to think the problem is with the line, not the back. JMO.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

I wouldn't call Harvin injury prone (yet) but he is just so vaulable elsewhere.

I understand the reasoning of protecting Harvin but I'm not sure a single carry from a HB position is any more dangerous than a single target or even a single down-field block as a WR. If we're trying to protect Harvin, we would likely have to cut down on his overall involvement in the entire offense, and I'm not so sure we're inclined to do that with someone who should be one of our best players.

 

[HawkWow]

I wouldn't call Harvin injury prone (yet) but he is just so vaulable elsewhere.

I understand the reasoning of protecting Harvin but I'm not sure a single carry from a HB position is any more dangerous than a single target or even a single down-field block as a WR. If we're trying to protect Harvin, we would likely have to cut down on his overall involvement in the entire offense, and I'm not so sure we're inclined to do that with someone who should be one of our best players.

I do anticipate Harvin getting a ton of action. He will line up wide, in the slot and he'll also be returning kicks. This on top of him coming out of the backfield, catching screens and dump-offs in the flats. If we are going to use him in a pure RB role, more than a couple times per contest, I suddenly question using our first pick in this draft on an RB.

But in the end, if Pete is comfortable running him more than a couple times a game, I will be too. I just have a hunch it won't be necessary.

 

[BirdsCommaAngry]

I'm in complete agreement with ya there. I liken the use of Harvin as a rusher to our current use of the read-option where we may walk that fine tactile line without crossing into gimmick dependency or giving teams a chance to catch on. What I'm wondering though, and this is a question I'm asking to everyone, is whether a carry is more dangerous than a WR getting a target or making a block. To put it more simply, do WRs get hurt more or less frequently than RBs? This seems like a prevalent issue in choosing how often Harvin should be used as a rusher if at all.

 

[vin.couve12]

Didn't see this post previously, but I have some similar thoughts on 5 tech and what not in another thread. I think we see that come to fruition.

 

[Mick063]

I like the write up in general, but somewhat disagree with the comments about KJ Wright.

Linebacker coverage is not as much of an issue with me because Seattle brought in specialist coverage guys for the WR type tight ends. Winfield will cover those pseudo tight ends.

Further, the zone blitz can be a gamble and that seems to be the one scheme where Wright "disappears". You are taking defensive ends and putting them in coverage while taking their linebacker counterparts and sending them after the quarterback. Personally, I think it is a tired scheme that most offensive coordinators have resolved. It doesn't seem to have the impact that it did when it first came out. Just have the players do what they do best. I think Wright is much better blitzing from a traditional scheme and as an added rusher as opposed to assuming the Leo's role of taking on the offensive tackle.

You have to take in to account recognition. There are two defensive players for Seattle that stood out in this regard. Very few defensive ends sniff out a screen and smother the trailing back better than Chris Clemmons. Very few SAM linebackers can get a jump on cut back runners better than KJ Wright. He simply doesn't over run the play. Really. He makes it look routine. He was burned by Adrian Peterson, but then everyone is. With respect to the Redskins and Forty Niners, it was more a case of their offensive lineman collectively mauling the Seattle front. Those D lineman have to free up the linebackers by demanding double teams, or at least occupying the "one on ones" for a decent duration and not allowing guards to get to the second level. Seattle resolved those issues "in game" both times and literally shut down the Redskins running game by the end of the first quarter.

KJ Wright must be on the field on almost every defensive down unless he needs a breather.

 

[Atradees]

Jesse Williams as blocker in goal line situations.....Bama used him for that.

 

[Seafan]

Hard to see a 5-11 OLB on a PC team. But I could definitely see him as depth at Mike.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

good writeup kearly. Thanks. What's interesting to me about the WR situation is when I look at our WR's DVOA's. Harvin's best year ever was only equal to Baldwin's rookie year. Baldwin was injured much of last season so it will be interesting to see how he looks if he stays healthy all year. Tate, meanwhile, was the 4th best WR per DVOA in the entire NFL last season. Rice was 12th, I think. If you go by DVOA's, Tate's the main man and the fight for the third spot is between Baldwin and Harvin. Obviously, that isn't the case, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in camp. Last year we had a 3 headed QB competition. This year we have quite the WR competition. This one should prove far less controversial.

I'm not exactly sure how they calculate DVOA for receivers, but I'd guess two factors weigh very highly:

#1: Yards per target.
#2: First downs / Touchdowns.

Danario Alexander just edged out Golden Tate for being the NFL's top WR in yards per target last season. He ends up #1 in DVOA.

In the case of Harvin, most of his catches were at the line of scrimmage and that tanks his yards per target number. Further, he was catching passes from a bad quarterback with a very weak arm. IIRC, Harvin only had something like 2 catches for 20+ yards in the air last season out of 60+ grabs. That's going to tank his yards per target too.

Also, it's hard to get in the end zone or to the first down marker when you are catching the football at the line of scrimmage.

I'm not saying that DVOA is a bad stat for WRs, I just think Harvin's value goes beyond his numbers. A bubble screen to Harvin is basically a rush attempt, but with a higher average of yards gained. If team's give Harvin space for those screens, Seattle's extremely efficient offense will have an even easier time setting up manageable 3rd downs and converting them.

Hence my comment "obviously, that isn't the case". But I found it interesting that Tate was rated so high and that Baldwin's rookie year compared to Harvin's best year. My point being that we have four really good WR's and all of them need to get the ball.

 

[BASF]

As long as KJ can diagnose and close like this:

he is fast enough to stay on the field. I think a lot of people under appreciate what Wright brings to the defense. He is a bigger stronger faster Lofa out there and makes a lot of the defenders around him better.