49ers second favorites for NFC. Why?

[Jegpeg]

I can't understand why the niners are 2nd favorites for the NFC behind only the Eagles. The Vikings and Cowboys are far better teams, and McCaffrey wont make THAT much difference. OK the Cowboys are likely to have to be on the road the whole way but Vikings are almost certain to be the No 2 seeds.

Who is 4th best is open to debate I would put us there but I could understand the Giants or 9ers being there.

We are +2500 behind the pre season favorites but greatly struggling Packers, Rams and Buccs if I was a betting man I would have some of that.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Niners defense when healthy is one of the best individual units in the entire NFL and adding McCaffrey is a splashy move to shore up a weaker side of their team. So that's probably why but, yeah, Cowboys are a more complete team.

I personally think in the NFC right now, the three best teams are Eagles, Cowboys, then us. Minnesota is a mediocre team with a good record from what I've seen so far (Giants, too) but I can understand why someone might rank them ahead of us but don't see the argument for anyone to put them (or anyone, really) over the Cowboys as number 2 right now.

 

[Jegpeg]

Agree cowboys are second best team, but when looking at odds for winning the NFC, the Vikings are likely No 2 seed and the Cowboys Number 4. I think the home advantage makes up for the difference in team quality.

 

[94Smith]

I also agree the Vikings and Cowboys are better teams. I would argue the Seahawks and 49ers should have even odds at this point. If you look at DVOA the Seahawks and 49ers are pretty much even.

The Seahawks had a terrible defense that has been doing very well the last 3 weeks and seems to be hitting its stride. The offense has been good since week one.

The 49ers defense was stellar early but had a huge blow with the loss of Emmanuel Moseley. That position opposite of Charvarious Ward has been occupied by Lenior. But Lenior moved from slot CB leaving a hole there. This left a hole at slot CB which was occupied by Jimmie Ward, but he is out of position and playing with a club.

The big question is going to be if Jason Verret can play in the second half opposite of Charvarious Ward at the other CB position. This will allow press coverage more as Lenior is more of a zone guy

As well the defense could get back to "elite" with the return of Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw (if this is even possible, his knees might be screwed), Dre Greenlaw, and Az-shaair

The last 3 weeks the defense has looked pretty marginal. They were bad against the Falcons, terrible against the Chiefs , bad in the first half against the rams and very good in the second half.

The offense is actually getting better week by week. Jimmy G never had training camp and his outing against the Broncos was terrible. But the offense against the Chiefs and the Rams looked really good . The 49ers pass offense is actually number one DVOA since week two. This is more a measure of efficiency rather than fire power as Garoppolo is not capable of carrying a team from a deficit to a win and the 49ers are not built to come from behind

The 49ers rush offense has been less than average this year which is part of the move to get McCaffery. Deebos runs have been stymied and Wilson was mostly bottled up. The return of Mitchell should help to spell off McCaffery . This part of the offense is also suffering from the loss of Mike McDaniel

Part of odds factoring is setting the proper odds to have equal betting across the major favorites. The fact the 49ers odds are better does not mean they are better it just means they are setting the odds higher on the vikings, seahawks, and cowboys to get more money on those teams. The goal of the odds makers is to get equal amounts of money on all the favorites. The fact the 49ers are lower means they are the more popular choice right now

The division is going to come down to the final week between the 49ers and Seahawks. This is great for you guys as I don't think anyone expected this, me included. But your rookies are playing great and Geno is playing like a star

 

[FrodosFinger]

W

I also agree the Vikings and Cowboys are better teams. I would argue the Seahawks and 49ers should have even odds at this point. If you look at DVOA the Seahawks and 49ers are pretty much even.

The Seahawks had a terrible defense that has been doing very well the last 3 weeks and seems to be hitting its stride. The offense has been good since week one.

The 49ers defense was stellar early but had a huge blow with the loss of Emmanuel Moseley. That position opposite of Charvarious Ward has been occupied by Lenior. But Lenior moved from slot CB leaving a hole there. This left a hole at slot CB which was occupied by Jimmie Ward, but he is out of position and playing with a club.

The big question is going to be if Jason Verret can play in the second half opposite of Charvarious Ward at the other CB position. This will allow press coverage more as Lenior is more of a zone guy

As well the defense could get back to "elite" with the return of Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw (if this is even possible, his knees might be screwed), Dre Greenlaw, and Az-shaair

The last 3 weeks the defense has looked pretty marginal. They were bad against the Falcons, terrible against the Chiefs , bad in the first half against the rams and very good in the second half.

The offense is actually getting better week by week. Jimmy G never had training camp and his outing against the Broncos was terrible. But the offense against the Chiefs and the Rams looked really good . The 49ers pass offense is actually number one DVOA since week two. This is more a measure of efficiency rather than fire power as Garoppolo is not capable of carrying a team from a deficit to a win and the 49ers are not built to come from behind

The 49ers rush offense has been less than average this year which is part of the move to get McCaffery. Deebos runs have been stymied and Wilson was mostly bottled up. The return of Mitchell should help to spell off McCaffery . This part of the offense is also suffering from the loss of Mike McDaniel

Part of odds factoring is setting the proper odds to have equal betting across the major favorites. The fact the 49ers odds are better does not mean they are better it just means they are setting the odds higher on the vikings, seahawks, and cowboys to get more money on those teams. The goal of the odds makers is to get equal amounts of money on all the favorites. The fact the 49ers are lower means they are the more popular choice right now

The division is going to come down to the final week between the 49ers and Seahawks. This is great for you guys as I don't think anyone expected this, me included. But your rookies are playing great and Geno is playing like a star

Actually pretty decent take. I’ve said from week 1 that I had the 49ers winning the division and Seattle taking 2nd. San Francisco still has a very formidable front defensively and many seasoned veterans with playoff experience. Add CMC to a mix of Deebo Samuel and Kittle and it presents an elite trio of weapons for Kyle to scheme and play with.

Geno and Jimmy are polar opposites in quarterback style. Jimmy, while very effective and accurate with the short and quick throws, isn’t gonna win many games when asked to throw downfield. Geno on the other hand can make every throw.

 

[chrispy]

... but Vikings are almost certain to be the No 2 seeds.

There's still a lot of football to be played before anything is "almost certain." I'd suggest that the only thing that's -almost certain- is that the current standings will look different after week 17.

I'm not trying to be confrontational. I'm just noting that an infinite number of things can happen to knock any particular team out of contention.

 

[DarkVictory23]

Agree cowboys are second best team, but when looking at odds for winning the NFC, the Vikings are likely No 2 seed and the Cowboys Number 4. I think the home advantage makes up for the difference in team quality.

I can see Vikes slipping from 2, honestly. And while Eagles schedule going forward does not have them facing a murderers' row, I think Dallas could make a play for the East (even though I agree they're most likely looking at 5th seed or lower).

The number 2 seed situation is interesting in that I think the real benefit for Minnesota if they hold onto it is less home field and more who the #7 seed ends up being.

If it's the equally mediocre-with-a-good-record Giants, that could be a huge boon.

If #7 ends up being us or Dallas or a (relatively) healthy Niners? I see an early exit for the Vikings.

 

[The Dirty Dozen Fan]

The Eagles remind me of the 2020 Steelers that went 11-0 then 1-4 and a first round exit. They are a hybrid 8-0.

 

[FrodosFinger]

Yeah they look very beatable. They haven’t really been tested. They beat Dallas with Rush at quarterback that was about it

 

[94Smith]

Yeah they look very beatable. They haven’t really been tested. They beat Dallas with Rush at quarterback that was about it

Have to confess have not watched a lot of Eagles football this year

 

[Biscanebay12]

Have to confess have not watched a lot of Eagles football this year

Me either just looked at their schedule and based on it and their performance against a 1-5-1 Houston team, color me not impressed.

 

[knownone]

The Eagles remind me of the 2020 Steelers that went 11-0 then 1-4 and a first round exit. They are a hybrid 8-0.

100% I'm not convinced they are the best team in their division. And they've played the easiest schedule in the NFL.

 

[BASF]

A lot of the same things were said about the '99 Rams schedule. That didn't stop them from winning the Superb Owl. In the end teams can only play who is on their schedule. Knocking them for it seems weird.

 

[Threedee]

I do hope the Packers play their game of the season against the Cowgirls next week.

 

[evergreen]

They’re good enough, but not world beaters. Plus the Vikings are winning by small margin. We’re beating teams by two scores. Some good teams too.

 

[Threedee]

I do hope the Packers play their game of the season against the Cowgirls next week.

How about that? The Greenies beat Girlies.