The problem with this narrative is the sample size is really small.
Just a few weeks ago he couldn't score in the second half, until he could.
Evaluating a player for what they are doing in any one moment can look really smart and effective and reasonable until it's disproven. Geno has disproven many things in his short time at the helm, and you could be right but you could also be wrong. Because he has countered many criticisms of him in such a short time, Geno is easy to support going forward even in things he has yet to prove.
Geno did take the lead in the fourth quarter on Sunday, which was something he was said to be incapable of. Some of the necessity of end game success will always depend upon effective play calling, other players executing their assignments, avoiding penalties, and opportunity. The defense needs to do their part to protect a lead even if only a lead by a point.
Even the best QBs fail on final drives. To argue that Geno is incapable is funny and closer to using a horoscope to determine his end game success than any basis in fact. I expect he'll take the team on a fourth quarter winning drive at some point this year.
It's not a "narrative". It's an accurate *description* of Geno's results thus far at "winning time" in close games. See OUTCOMES charts below. I've omitted blowout games that weren't within one score in the 4th quarter, like 2021 Jacksonville and 2022 San Fran.
Simple fact, Geno dropping back to pass in nearly every game-on-the-line situation thus far in his Seahawks career has ended the drive with a negative play, sack, fumble, or pick. Yes, it's a small sample size. Every go-ahead or game-icing drive at "winning time" has been a running back breaking loose for a 40+ yard TD, NOT Geno making plays with his arm. Show me a game Geno has won with his passing in the last 6 minutes. Did I miss one? I'll give Geno credit for the audible to Penny on 3rd and 16 vs the Lions that was the game-winner, IIRC, for winning the game with a timely situational call that caught the Lions in a blitz.
Yes, Geno is doing awesome and making plays. No, the end of the first half doesn't count. Love the ball he threw to Tyler against the Saints with seconds left in the half. Late in the 4th quarter, on 3rd and 2 with the game on the line, Geno drops back to pass, holds the ball, holds the ball, and gets sacked. Irrelevant whether all receivers are covered, etc., Geno must not take a huge sack there.
BAD OUTCOMES
2021 Week 6 vs Steelers - Geno scrambles, gets hit by TJ Watt, fumbles. Pittsburgh kicks game-winning FG. Hawks lose.
2021 Week 7 vs Saints - Geno takes 2 consecutive sacks, on 2nd and 3rd down, then an incompletion on 4th and 28. Hawks lose.
2022 Week 3 vs Falcons - Geno takes a sack on 3rd and 8, then throws a pick on 4th and 18. Hawks lose.
2022 Week 5 vs Saints - Geno hands off to Walker, who goes 69 yards, Seahawks lead. Next series, Geno huge sack on 3rd and 2. Hawks lose.
GOOD OUTCOMES
2022 Week 1 vs Broncos - Geno leads the offense to 0 2nd half points in this one. Not holding against him, Hawks D wins game.
2022 Week 4 vs Lions - Geno hands the ball of to Penny who takes it to the house to put the Hawks up 2 scores. Good call. Hawks win.
As you said, it's a small sample size. I'm optimistic that Geno will start winning some of these games with his arm. In the Falcons game, Geno was leading the Hawks to a game-winning TD with under 2 minutes left, and got screwed by TWO holding penalties that wiped out positive plays.
QB reputations--and salaries are hugely affected by their results at crunch time. Still waiting for Geno's first game-winning drive at crunch time, where it was Geno's passing. To see better results, it's probably a combination of OC and QB adjustments, plus OLine/WR coaching on how to avoid drawing holding flags.