kearly
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Here is what Russell Wilson would make, if Seattle didn't sign him to a deal and franchised him in 2016 and 2017:
2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million (franchise tag - estimate*)
2017: $24 million (franchise tag - estimate x 1.20)
*(The 2013 QB tag number was $14.8 million, in 2014 it was $16.1 million, in 2015 it is $18.5 million. The 2016 number could be slightly over $20 million, but I figured I'd round it to 20 for the sake of keeping things clean and simple.)
All of this means that Russell Wilson is already effectively on a 3 year, $45.5 contract going forward. This is important information because GMs will almost always use existing numbers like these as the foundations for their offers in contract talks. After all, why make an offer that pays MORE than $45.5 million from 2015-2017 when you already have that deal in the bag?
Now, lets say you want to turn this 3 year baseline deal into a 4 year contract. You already have a 3 year deal in place. Lets say the one extra year we add would be around the rumored 'better than Aaron Rodgers' level AYP. Let's say $22.5 million. Doing that would make Wilson's 4 year contract look like this:
2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million
2017: $24 million
2018: $22.5 million
Total: 4 years, $68 million
Wasn't the rumored deal Seattle had on the table for 4 years, $80 million? Of course, we don't know if those are tack on years or a situation where they ripped up Wilson's last cheap year, but regardless, the total numbers are pretty close to that. Doesn't seem like much of an insult anymore does it?
For Wilson to get over the $100 million mark, he'd need to sign at least a six year deal. And that might not be in Wilson's best interests, as he'd want another bite at the apple sooner, not later.
I am all for the Seahawks paying Russell Wilson his money. And I think that, because of how NFL inflation works, it would be wiser to sign Wilson now than to do it in 2016, 2017 or 2018. But when you look at how little money the Seahawks can keep Wilson for over the next three years (3/45.5), it tells me that Seattle isn't lowballing Wilson at all, they are simply using their collectively bargained leverage correctly.
When you look at the baseline 3 year numbers and see how low they are, it's really just Wilson's last cheap year that is tanking his AYP. Suddenly these contract talks will take a very different tenor in 2016 when Wilson's 3/45.5 deal graduates to a 2/44 one. Consider too that NFL salary inflation has risen by about 10% to 15% per year over the past two decades... what is considered a $20 million AYP player today could be a $22-$23 million AYP player next year.
If Seattle and Wilson can't get it done in 2015, you very well might see them agreeing to a deal in 2016 for $110-$120 million over five years. It's amazing what happens when you take out the last cheap year and sprinkle in a little inflation.
Even if Wilson signed today for the aforementioned 4/68 number, he'd still make top money in all but his last rookie year, and then he'd get his next bite at the apple much sooner than in the latter scenario. It's possible he'd actually make more money in the long term signing a short deal right now.
I am not trying to besmirch Wilson, but no matter how I look at this, I see Wilson walking away from the NFL with hundreds of millions of dollars when it's all said and done. So why make a big deal about how big the final number is on his first deal? Is it a respect thing? Wilson wouldn't be the first QB to associate dollar signs with status and respect.
If it is indeed a Flacco Syndrome thing... if it's all about how big the total number is in order to gain stature and respect... I would not expect Wilson to sign in 2015 at all, but I would give him very good odds of signing a mega deal in 2016 once the last cheap year has expired. I suspect that for Wilson, total numbers might matter to him more than AYP does since it's the total number that most people associate with the stature of a QB.
Bottom line is, Wilson isn't going anywhere, and everyone knows it. We might have to wait a year for it to be official, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is a gulf between the two sides or that things have gotten too personal. If Wilson isn't in the $100 million club this year, he will be by 2016. I think this is what Wilson wants, which is why he seems predisposed to play out the rest of his rookie deal before signing a new one. Maybe some of the talks have grated on his nerves a bit, maybe he's impatient, or maybe he's being unrealistic. But ultimately I see a lot less resistance to a new deal once that last low cost year is over and done with, and the total number ends up much closer to Wilson's expectation.
2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million (franchise tag - estimate*)
2017: $24 million (franchise tag - estimate x 1.20)
*(The 2013 QB tag number was $14.8 million, in 2014 it was $16.1 million, in 2015 it is $18.5 million. The 2016 number could be slightly over $20 million, but I figured I'd round it to 20 for the sake of keeping things clean and simple.)
All of this means that Russell Wilson is already effectively on a 3 year, $45.5 contract going forward. This is important information because GMs will almost always use existing numbers like these as the foundations for their offers in contract talks. After all, why make an offer that pays MORE than $45.5 million from 2015-2017 when you already have that deal in the bag?
Now, lets say you want to turn this 3 year baseline deal into a 4 year contract. You already have a 3 year deal in place. Lets say the one extra year we add would be around the rumored 'better than Aaron Rodgers' level AYP. Let's say $22.5 million. Doing that would make Wilson's 4 year contract look like this:
2015: $1.5 million
2016: $20 million
2017: $24 million
2018: $22.5 million
Total: 4 years, $68 million
Wasn't the rumored deal Seattle had on the table for 4 years, $80 million? Of course, we don't know if those are tack on years or a situation where they ripped up Wilson's last cheap year, but regardless, the total numbers are pretty close to that. Doesn't seem like much of an insult anymore does it?
For Wilson to get over the $100 million mark, he'd need to sign at least a six year deal. And that might not be in Wilson's best interests, as he'd want another bite at the apple sooner, not later.
I am all for the Seahawks paying Russell Wilson his money. And I think that, because of how NFL inflation works, it would be wiser to sign Wilson now than to do it in 2016, 2017 or 2018. But when you look at how little money the Seahawks can keep Wilson for over the next three years (3/45.5), it tells me that Seattle isn't lowballing Wilson at all, they are simply using their collectively bargained leverage correctly.
When you look at the baseline 3 year numbers and see how low they are, it's really just Wilson's last cheap year that is tanking his AYP. Suddenly these contract talks will take a very different tenor in 2016 when Wilson's 3/45.5 deal graduates to a 2/44 one. Consider too that NFL salary inflation has risen by about 10% to 15% per year over the past two decades... what is considered a $20 million AYP player today could be a $22-$23 million AYP player next year.
If Seattle and Wilson can't get it done in 2015, you very well might see them agreeing to a deal in 2016 for $110-$120 million over five years. It's amazing what happens when you take out the last cheap year and sprinkle in a little inflation.
Even if Wilson signed today for the aforementioned 4/68 number, he'd still make top money in all but his last rookie year, and then he'd get his next bite at the apple much sooner than in the latter scenario. It's possible he'd actually make more money in the long term signing a short deal right now.
I am not trying to besmirch Wilson, but no matter how I look at this, I see Wilson walking away from the NFL with hundreds of millions of dollars when it's all said and done. So why make a big deal about how big the final number is on his first deal? Is it a respect thing? Wilson wouldn't be the first QB to associate dollar signs with status and respect.
If it is indeed a Flacco Syndrome thing... if it's all about how big the total number is in order to gain stature and respect... I would not expect Wilson to sign in 2015 at all, but I would give him very good odds of signing a mega deal in 2016 once the last cheap year has expired. I suspect that for Wilson, total numbers might matter to him more than AYP does since it's the total number that most people associate with the stature of a QB.
Bottom line is, Wilson isn't going anywhere, and everyone knows it. We might have to wait a year for it to be official, but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is a gulf between the two sides or that things have gotten too personal. If Wilson isn't in the $100 million club this year, he will be by 2016. I think this is what Wilson wants, which is why he seems predisposed to play out the rest of his rookie deal before signing a new one. Maybe some of the talks have grated on his nerves a bit, maybe he's impatient, or maybe he's being unrealistic. But ultimately I see a lot less resistance to a new deal once that last low cost year is over and done with, and the total number ends up much closer to Wilson's expectation.