Would Hawks Let Wilson Walk?

[Sports Hernia]

This thread is going to be hilarious when he signs before training camp

Yes it will.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

This thread is going to be hilarious when he signs before training camp

Business as usual at .Net.

 

[hawks85]

Gamesmanship, not brinkmanship. It's all part of the dance. Russell is never playing pro baseball and Seattle is never letting a franchise QB go.

true, but wilson is in the last year of his deal right? hell he doesn't have to sign anything if he doesn't want to. if his heart is that strong for baseball he will play this year out and be gone.

 

[Tical21]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

It's quite rare, but I actually disagree with just about the entire post. At the very least, it is very subjective. We have the best roster in football, and it isn't close. There is no way we are a 8-win team with a league average quarterback. I think we win 10 with TJax, and I would say he would be a below average league quarterback. Heck, we won 7 with him with a roster that wasn't in the top half of the league. I might give Russ a 1 game differential, but I can't see any more than that. The vast majority of QB's that have gotten paid have doomed their franchises. I can't help but wonder if bringing in another running quarterback that can run the bootleg game and the read option, and signing 2-3 other really good players might prove more prudent.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

It's quite rare, but I actually disagree with just about the entire post. At the very least, it is very subjective. We have the best roster in football, and it isn't close. There is no way we are a 8-win team with a league average quarterback. I think we win 10 with TJax, and I would say he would be a below average league quarterback. Heck, we won 7 with him with a roster that wasn't in the top half of the league. I might give Russ a 1 game differential, but I can't see any more than that. The vast majority of QB's that have gotten paid have doomed their franchises. I can't help but wonder if bringing in another running quarterback that can run the bootleg game and the read option, and signing 2-3 other really good players might prove more prudent.

Just wow! I'll even say it backwards for you...WOW!

I know you love debate but that whole statement is absurd.

 

[Anthony!]

Just about every player that gets tagged holds out until the games start. It is like their get-out-of-camp-free card. Why is that any different in this case? How many years in a row did Walter hold out?

Chances are it will never get to the point where a franchise tag is actually used for Russ.

Even if it did, Wilson holding out on a franchise tag would really surprise me. Say what you want about WRs, OTs, TEs or RBs, it's just not something QBs do. The closest example I can think of is Carson Palmer in 2011. But his holdout was related to his demands for a trade, and his public vow to never play for the Bengals again. And of all QBs, I think Wilson with his 24/7/365 mentality to winning, would be the very last QB to ever do it.

Everybody knows they'll pay him. Way more than he's worth, and it is going to have a huge impact on the rest of the roster over the next several years, but they'll pay him. I don't think they have the money left to do it this year barring some pretty big cuts, but they'll pay him at some point. Or they'll bring in another running quarterback for 1/10th the cost.

If there was a stat like WAR for football, not even the Mike Trouts and Felix Hernandez's of baseball could compare with Wilson's value. No position in the four major sports creates value to a team like an effective quarterback can. Seattle has averaged five wins more per year with Wilson than they did the year before they acquired him. Nearly half of Seattle's all time postseason wins were led by Wilson.

Of course, we can't give all 5 of those wins only to Wilson. After all, Seattle's D took a small step forward in 2012. I think this is a bit on the low end, but let's compromise and say Wilson is worth 3 wins.

Based on the three win premise with a 12 win average, that would mean Wilson's value to the team would be 25% of their win total. 25% of Seattle's current cap number would equal $37 million in 2015. Even if you thought Wilson was only a two win player, that would put his value at $24.7 million in 2015.

If Wilson were to sign for $22 million, the cap hit would equal only 15% of Seattle's adjusted 2015 cap number. Can anyone say with a straight face that an elite QB isn't worth 15% of his team's resources?

This doesn't even get into the long term realities of the deal. For example, Wilson's real cap hit might be closer to $18 or $19 million if the deal is spread over Wilson's last cheap year. Not only that, but even $22 million will basically be the new 'Flacco money' by 2016 simply due to NFL inflation. And though Wilson might be the highest AYP QB in 2015, he'll probably be the 10th highest AYP QB by the end of the deal as all the QB's who come after him get paid more and more.

I think it's way off base to say that Wilson isn't worth every penny he's paid, it's just the opposite. It is virtually impossible to give WIlson a contract that pays him more than he's contributing to the team in return.

As far as letting players go to pay Wilson, that shouldn't be necessary, so long as the cap continues to increase by almost $10 million a year. And all signs suggest it will.

It's quite rare, but I actually disagree with just about the entire post. At the very least, it is very subjective. We have the best roster in football, and it isn't close. There is no way we are a 8-win team with a league average quarterback. I think we win 10 with TJax, and I would say he would be a below average league quarterback. Heck, we won 7 with him with a roster that wasn't in the top half of the league. I might give Russ a 1 game differential, but I can't see any more than that. The vast majority of QB's that have gotten paid have doomed their franchises. I can't help but wonder if bringing in another running quarterback that can run the bootleg game and the read option, and signing 2-3 other really good players might prove more prudent.

Just wow! I'll even say it backwards for you...WOW!

I know you love debate but that whole statement is absurd.

Dude you need to understand he does not live in reality at all, he lives in his own world were Wilson is nothing. He doe snot like Wilson would love him to be gone. And WOW is correct he is wrong, Tjack would not get is 10+ wins he did win 7 in 2011 against a very easy schedule. Now he would face a very tough schedule and 8 top 10 pass defenses a year. We would be lucky to win 7 with tjack or any avg QB. Wilson adds at least 4 wins to this team. There is a reason he leads all QBs in 4tg qtr/OT winning drives in the last 3 years. IF other QBs could do what he does he would not lead the league. Again you need to consider the source and realize all he wants is to downgrade any thing Wilson does. He loves to blame him when things go wrong, but he also loves to not give him credit when things go right. He would be happier if we were 1-15 without Wilson then 14-1 with him.

 

[Tical21]

I have repeatedly given Russell praise over the years and certainly recognize he is a fantastic young quarterback. He's just not an elite passer and I think giving him 20+ million per season would not maximize the future upside of this franchise.

 

[Uncle Si]

I have repeatedly given Russell praise over the years and certainly recognize he is a fantastic young quarterback. He's just not an elite passer and I think giving him 20+ million per season would not maximize the future upside of this franchise.

I'd argue that the future upside of this franchise is more in Wilson's hands. But I can understand your point. Future will tell

 

[tacomahawk]

All I can say, is if Russ was pissed about anything, or worried about something not getting done, I don't think he would still be saying "Go Hawks" at the end of interviews.

I am not even slightly concerned.

 

[Jerhawk]

I have repeatedly given Russell praise over the years and certainly recognize he is a fantastic young quarterback. He's just not an elite passer and I think giving him 20+ million per season would not maximize the future upside of this franchise.

I completely agree with this statement. As much as we'd all love to see Wilson play his entire career here, at what long term cost would that be?

 

[LymonHawk]

I know you love debate but that whole statement is absurd.

Dude you need to understand he doe snot live in reality at all, he lives in his own world were Wilson is nothing. He doe snot like Wilson would love him to be gone. And WOW is correct he is wrong, Tjack would not get is 10+ wins he did win 7 in 2011 against a very easy schedule. Now he would face a very tough schedule and 8 top 10 pass defenses a year. We would be lucky to win 7 with tjack or any avg QB. Wilson adds at least 4 wins to this team. There is a reason he leads all QBs in 4tg qtr/OT winning drives in the last 3 years. IF other QBs could do what he does he would not lead the league. Again you need to consider the source and realize all he wants is to downgrade any thing Wilson does. He loves to blame him when things go wrong, but he also loves to not give him credit when things go right. He would be happier if we were 1-15 without Wilson then 14-1 with him.

Anthony! Did you just call MizzouHawkGal a dude? (To quote the immortal Radish... :141847_bnono: )

 

[LymonHawk]

I know you love debate but that whole statement is absurd.

Dude you need to understand he doe snot live in reality at all, he lives in his own world were Wilson is nothing. He doe snot like Wilson would love him to be gone. And WOW is correct he is wrong, Tjack would not get is 10+ wins he did win 7 in 2011 against a very easy schedule. Now he would face a very tough schedule and 8 top 10 pass defenses a year. We would be lucky to win 7 with tjack or any avg QB. Wilson adds at least 4 wins to this team. There is a reason he leads all QBs in 4tg qtr/OT winning drives in the last 3 years. IF other QBs could do what he does he would not lead the league. Again you need to consider the source and realize all he wants is to downgrade any thing Wilson does. He loves to blame him when things go wrong, but he also loves to not give him credit when things go right. He would be happier if we were 1-15 without Wilson then 14-1 with him.

Anthony! Did you just call MizzouHawkGal a dude? (To quote the immortal Radish... :141847_bnono: )

It's been widely known for some time now that KCfakegirl is in fact a man. Pehawk sniffed it out, like he always does. Or did.

Nah, that was just his fantasy. But maybe it was the mustache that threw him off?

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

Wilson is going to get signed and for a lot of money unless his asking price is unreasonable or he wants a fully guaranteed contract and that is not a precedent that any team will accept. It's really that simple. He's under contract this year so for now he's not going anywhere worst case scenario they have to franchise him next year but that outcome is highly unlikely. My opinion is he will get a new contract before the start of training camp.

 

[nbk35zw]

If JS lets Russell get away, he will instantly become a pariah in Seattle. Think Hutch times one million.

And if PC leaves at the end of the season, JS will need a friend to lean on.

If JS fails to get this done, he will leave a legacy of failure.

Shark jumped :stirthepot:

 

[Northwest Seahawk]

If JS lets Russell get away, he will instantly become a pariah in Seattle. Think Hutch times one million.

And if PC leaves at the end of the season, JS will need a friend to lean on.

If JS fails to get this done, he will leave a legacy of failure.

Shark jumped :stirthepot:

He's still under contract this year bro this kind of post doesn't work until there's a chance he could really leave .

 

[Anthony!]

I have repeatedly given Russell praise over the years and certainly recognize he is a fantastic young quarterback. He's just not an elite passer and I think giving him 20+ million per season would not maximize the future upside of this franchise.

I'd argue that the future upside of this franchise is more in Wilson's hands. But I can understand your point. Future will tell

Except the facts show he is an elite passer, just some will always find ways to bring him down. In addition as history has shown us the future upside of any team is mainly based on them having or not having a franchise QB.

 

[hawknation2015]

Wilson's agent may be playing hardball, but Wilson himself let us know a few key pieces of information in his recent ESPN interview about how he is personally feeling about these negotiations: he would like a deal done before the season starts, he would like to play his whole career in Seattle, and he wants his contract negotiations throughout his career to stay private.

What about that sounds like a guy who would ever holdout (i.e. miss off-season workouts, practices, or games) over a contract negotiation? That would be the most extreme and public negotiation tactic he could possibly take. And it would do more harm than good by sacrificing the team-first image he has so carefully cultivated. It would be like using a nuclear weapon during the Cold War . . . Mutually Assured Destruction.

He's making 8% of what he should be making this season; not only is he not holding out, he is actually organizing trips to Hawaii for 7 on 7 workouts with the team. Now imagine that he is making around $20 million under next year's exclusive franchise tag. Why would he risk a public demonstration like holding out under those circumstances? I don't see it.

 

[nbk35zw]

If JS lets Russell get away, he will instantly become a pariah in Seattle. Think Hutch times one million.

And if PC leaves at the end of the season, JS will need a friend to lean on.

If JS fails to get this done, he will leave a legacy of failure.

Shark jumped :stirthepot:

He's still under contract this year bro this kind of post doesn't work until there's a chance he could really leave .

Wut? You never saw Happy Days... You know, the TV show. Lighten up, Francis. Psst... I did it again :2:

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

Wilson is going to get signed and for a lot of money unless his asking price is unreasonable or he wants a fully guaranteed contract and that is not a precedent that any team will accept. It's really that simple. He's under contract this year so for now he's not going anywhere worst case scenario they have to franchise him next year but that outcome is highly unlikely. My opinion is he will get a new contract before the start of training camp.

Logic and sanity have no place in this discussion sir!

:2: Welcome to .Net.

 

[hawknation2015]

Wilson is going to get signed and for a lot of money unless his asking price is unreasonable or he wants a fully guaranteed contract and that is not a precedent that any team will accept. It's really that simple. He's under contract this year so for now he's not going anywhere worst case scenario they have to franchise him next year but that outcome is highly unlikely. My opinion is he will get a new contract before the start of training camp.

Agree! Welcome to the board!