Why is Philadelphia favored over Seattle?

[Hawk-Lock]

It's cause the entire universe hates us, gives us no respect and is even out to make sure we never win another game again by training the refs and schedule makers to make terrible calls against us on purpose and schedule at least 12 10:00am east coast games per year, even though that's illegal.

Dude. Your schtick is really growing tiresome.

Just think how the rest of us feel seeing these same tired everyone hates us threads week after week.

Here we have the most unbiased thing in sports, betting odds............that are created by insanely complex algorithms by cold hearted greedy money grubbing casino sportsbooks that only care about one thing and one thing only, being right in order to make the most money possible.

But that doesn't matter to the chicken littles here, it's an ATTACK!!

I’m with Largent on this. The forum can be hard to come to with how many people on here actually think the NFL, refs and media are out to screw us on purpose. People on here still actually think Metcalf didn’t fumble which is beyond me. The fact people on here were upset that we got flexed out against a 5-5 team for two divisional winners says goes to show the bias on this forum.

As for why Philly is favored? They are a solid team who is probably underachieving and they are coming off a tough loss. Solid teams rarely lose consecutive home games.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Seattle while 8-2 has had many close wins and tight games. Philly is at home, 10am game.
I don’t have any issue with Philly being favored.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Not at all, in fact I expected them to be favored. Glad they are too, they are a lot better than that 5-5 record imo.

 

[Scorpion05]

No one thinks the NFL and media is "out to get us." That is a strawman from those focused on dismissing any debate on the subject.

The main point has always been that Seattle is often an after thought, and doesn't quite get the respect despite its track record. To my point before, it's why Pete, John, Wagner, and several other players haven't won coach/GM/Defensive of the year awards. And it's why every week the media is clamoring to put someone ahead of Wilson for MVP (Lamar, Mahomes, Rodgers).

In this case, Vegas is betting that an Eagles team who's struggled most of the season, is gonna win against a Seahawks team undefeated on the road. It's not an outlandish prediction, but as I've always said there sure seems to be a lot of "question marks" by the public every year over a SB winning coach and QB who's never had a losing season.

It's a pattern within our country in general to dismiss any and all claims of bias as whining and paranoia, instead of objectively discussing it. So nothing new honestly. There are plenty of non-Seattle teams, public figures, and topics that I've argued get a general lack of respect or bias. But to discuss that, nuance needs to actually be embraced. Not black and white thinking.

 

[HansGruber]

It's cause the entire universe hates us, gives us no respect and is even out to make sure we never win another game again by training the refs and schedule makers to make terrible calls against us on purpose and schedule at least 12 10:00am east coast games per year, even though that's illegal.

Dude. Your schtick is really growing tiresome.

Just think how the rest of us feel seeing these same tired everyone hates us threads week after week.

Here we have the most unbiased thing in sports, betting odds............that are created by insanely complex algorithms by cold hearted greedy money grubbing casino sportsbooks that only care about one thing and one thing only, being right in order to make the most money possible.

But that doesn't matter to the chicken littles here, it's an ATTACK!!

Sports books don't give two craps what happens in a game, AT ALL. You misunderstand their business model and how they work.

Sports books try to balance betting so that it is 50-50 on each team. The book makes its money on the commission/rake, not the outcome of games. Odds are calculated based on how the betting is going. Odds will increase/decrease in order to get bets as balanced as possible.

There is nothing sports books hate more than unbalanced betting (a ton of bets on one side of a line). This situation exposes them to risk. The entire key to success in sports betting is for the house to get totally balanced betting on every game.

This is all common knowledge.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

It's cause the entire universe hates us, gives us no respect and is even out to make sure we never win another game again by training the refs and schedule makers to make terrible calls against us on purpose and schedule at least 12 10:00am east coast games per year, even though that's illegal.

Dude. Your schtick is really growing tiresome.

Just think how the rest of us feel seeing these same tired everyone hates us threads week after week.

Here we have the most unbiased thing in sports, betting odds............that are created by insanely complex algorithms by cold hearted greedy money grubbing casino sportsbooks that only care about one thing and one thing only, being right in order to make the most money possible.

But that doesn't matter to the chicken littles here, it's an ATTACK!!

I’m with Largent on this. The forum can be hard to come to with how many people on here actually think the NFL, refs and media are out to screw us on purpose. People on here still actually think Metcalf didn’t fumble which is beyond me. The fact people on here were upset that we got flexed out against a 5-5 team for two divisional winners says goes to show the bias on this forum.

As for why Philly is favored? They are a solid team who is probably underachieving and they are coming off a tough loss. Solid teams rarely lose consecutive home games.

That's the thing though, the sports books don't care. If a bunch of money's coming in on the Eagles, they move the line to favor them so they get more money on the Hawks to even out the VIG.

So if people wanna cry about bias (and they will cry), then blame the degenerate gamblers for thinking the Eagle's are a good bet against the Hawks at home.............and considering;

- they're at home
- they're desperate
- the Hawks have only won one road game this year by more than 4 pts
- Hawks have a history of playing poorly in early east coast games

This all spells not really much to see here about a two point Eagle favorite. But I know, TO THE BIASMOBILE BATMAN!!

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Also, take a look at Philly's remaining schedule. After the Hawks game, they basically have ONE really good team on the schedule. This game is massive to them.

After their game with the Hawks:

AT MIAMI
GIANTS
AT REDSKINS
COWBOYS
AT GIANTS

They should win 4 of those, if not all 5 (Cowboys game being at home)

 

[HansGruber]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.

 

[sutz]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.

Not really how it works. Like I said up thread, take the Seahawks and the points. From what you're saying (unsubstantiated but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) most people agree with me. :mrgreen:

 

[HansGruber]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.

Not really how it works. Like I said up thread, take the Seahawks and the points. From what you're saying (unsubstantiated but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt) most people agree with me. :mrgreen:

Check the link that was posted, the numbers are there. 83% of spread bets are coming in on Seattle. I don't need any benefit of the doubt, it's right there in black and white.

And I'm not sure what you mean by "that's not really how it works." Huh? What isn't?

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.

OK, so I don't see how favoring PHI is good for the house at all balance-wise. To restore balance, it would make sense to favor Seattle since the bet would be less "worth" making via spread or moneyline.

As far as favoring PHI because of PHI's desperation, HFA or time-shift, the only one I can truly see is time shift. Even though we have a fairly secure wildcard, we want to not only keep that but get the #1 seed. We're doing better on the road in this regular season.

As far as other reasons, odds are they won't be fixing their extremely thin and not impressive WR crew for this week. Odds are we will have Lockett. So is there something else?

 

[Sgt. Largent]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.[/quote

OK, so I don't see how favoring PHI is good for the house at all balance-wise. To restore balance, it would make sense to favor Seattle since the bet would be less "worth" making via spread or moneyline.

As far as favoring PHI because of PHI's desperation, HFA or time-shift, the only one I can truly see is time shift. Even though we have a fairly secure wildcard, we want to not only keep that but get the #1 seed. We're doing better on the road in this regular season.

As far as other reasons, odds are they won't be fixing their extremely thin and not impressive WR crew for this week. Odds are we will have Lockett. So is there something else?

So I looked at what the line started out at, and earlier in the week the Eagle's were favored by 3, and now the line's down to the Eagle's at 1 pt favorite, and some at even.

https://mybookie.ag/sportsbook/nfl/

So yeah, that makes sense. If 83% of the money's coming in on Seattle, the line's going to move more towards even to try and get more money on the Eagles.

I'm not a degenerate gambler, but from what I read is most early bets are noobs and all the hardened degenerates wait until the last minute. So that'd make sense here, all the dumb money was coming in after the Hawk's beat the Niners on MNF, and now the sportsbooks are trying to attract the degenerates with putting their money on the Eagles by moving the line.

Eagle's have a good defense, maybe their offense sucks but my guess is this is going to yet another ugly knock em down drag out street fight. Probably going to look a lot like the Patriots Eagles game, low scoring defensive struggle.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

If I was betting on this game, I would take the UNDER big time.

 

[HansGruber]

More telling is that 83% of the bets on the spread are coming in for Seattle.

Damn.

People putting their money where their mouth is believe Seattle will win the matchup by a pretty drastic margin.

OK, so I don't see how favoring PHI is good for the house at all balance-wise. To restore balance, it would make sense to favor Seattle since the bet would be less "worth" making via spread or moneyline.

As far as favoring PHI because of PHI's desperation, HFA or time-shift, the only one I can truly see is time shift. Even though we have a fairly secure wildcard, we want to not only keep that but get the #1 seed. We're doing better on the road in this regular season.

As far as other reasons, odds are they won't be fixing their extremely thin and not impressive WR crew for this week. Odds are we will have Lockett. So is there something else?

It's not that simple.

Sports books use more than the spread itself to push betting a certain way. They'll adjust payout and other parameters, turn down bets, change the over/under, offer bizarre unique bets, etc.

Again, the sports books don't care about the teams or the games, at all. They don't get into player analysis or anything we're talking about. ALL they care about is balancing the bets. And that's a very complex thing on its own. They don't have time to watch all of the sports they accept wagers on. And AFAIK, all of their analysis is PURELY focused on wager balancing.

And it's not just the number of bets, it's also the value of bets that is being analyzed. 10% of the betting may be going to Philly, but the wagers might be 5x higher in value. Books don't publish that info because if the public sees 2 wagers at $1m each, people might assume the fix is in and then you REALLY see unbalanced betting.

My favorite book is Mandalay Bay. Floyd Mayweather used to place million dollar wagers at the book and it would wack the numbers out. There are stories in Vegas about his team. Rumor has it that he bid a million against himself in a fight simply to drive the books against him and then had his team wager $10m on him. There are a lot of rumors. I've heard that Mandalay has banned him and his team because they were killing the book by planning huge wagers at the last second long after the books can adjust.

A few years ago, there was some fight, I think it was an UFC fight, where like 90% of the betting was coming in one side. The fight went a certain way and the books lost millions. That's a nightmare scenario where casinos don't make much profit on the sports gambling anyway. One bad matchup can make an entire sports book negative for the year.

So it's hard to deduce much from any of the published numbers.

The main point here is that sport books don't give a crap about the game. Their analysis are math nerds who don't even watch sports and don't have the first clue who these teams are. The lines have nothing to do with the game. It is completely based on betting activity and trying to get wagering as even as possible.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

10am start on the road with the Hawks barely beating their opponents,,,,,,the spot sounds about right to me. Its a toss up, pick em game.

^^^^yeah, when you think about it, it's not much of a reach.

Aren't we 3-0 at 10am this season?

:snack:

Yes we are by a grand total of 13 points (4.3 per game)

Think back to 10 AM games during the Holmgren years, then be happy with those margins of victory

 

[HansGruber]

If I was betting on this game, I would take the UNDER big time.

It's a 48-point under/over right now. I think you might be safe on that wager but the payout looked crappy when I saw it.

 

[Sac]

It's cause the entire universe hates us, gives us no respect and is even out to make sure we never win another game again by training the refs and schedule makers to make terrible calls against us on purpose and schedule at least 12 10:00am east coast games per year, even though that's illegal.

Dude. Your schtick is really growing tiresome.

Just think how the rest of us feel seeing these same tired everyone hates us threads week after week.

Here we have the most unbiased thing in sports, betting odds............that are created by insanely complex algorithms by cold hearted greedy money grubbing casino sportsbooks that only care about one thing and one thing only, being right in order to make the most money possible.

But that doesn't matter to the chicken littles here, it's an ATTACK!!

uh...Betting odds are laregley based on where bets have gone - all this is saying is that a bunch of homer Philly fans bet on Philly to win - and there are more of them than of us. Yes, bet on Seattle.

 

[xray]

This a pickem game ; Eagles should be slightly favored ...it's @ their house . DUH...And the constant whinny bs about
" that everybody hates the Hawks " has no legs . Why do you have to make excuses anyway ?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Who is making excuses? Most of us are saying that it's gonna' be a real tough game and/or Philly should be favored.

 

[SantaClaraHawk]

I think it"ll be close due to their D and their O-line was ranked second by PFF. But our D has come to life too. I see pressures and inaccuracy on the PHI WR, plus the usual Russell magic, contributing to a W for us.

We've played close games all season, though, so I think it'll be close too.

I'm thinking 17-21 Hawks.

Just noticed, they signed a player to a four-year extension. It's the long-snapper! You can read all about it in SCREAMING ALL CAPS here: https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/201 ... etails-wow

Here is where PHI fans are talking about how they can hypothetically beat us.
https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/201 ... on-agholor

Still think Hawks win.