Who is our next QB? 70 million would be useless with no QB?!

[keasley45]

Okay let's look at that. Just the last SB to make it easy

Rams were #5 in Passing
Benglas # 7

Neither top 15 in rushing
Neither top 10 in defense by yards or scoring

So the answer is no.

Again. Nobody said a great qb can't overcome other areas. I pretty plainly stated that that also works. But this notion that you have to sell out and commit to some space-age passing attack and that you can no longer build around the run and defense is just incorrect.

 

[John63]

Again. Nobody said a great qb can't overcome other areas. I pretty plainly stated that that also works. But this notion that you have to sell out and commit to some space-age passing attack and that you can no longer build around the run and defense is just incorrect.

I agree you can build around a passing attack and still build a defense and run game. But you have to have an HC who wants to do it. a FO that has not been horrible in Fa and Drafting since 2015. And once you build it you must commit to it and not run back to the same old same old anytime there is a hiccup.

 

[keasley45]

I think the FO deserves a reset. Pete has been stubborn and placed loyalty and faith in underperforming players and coaches to improve, well beyond the point he should have. But Pete and John have also shown brilliance in building and sustaining one of the most successful franchises in recent NFL history.

They did gamble and lose between 2015 and 2019. Can't excuse the blunders. But they were also playing to a different criteria, preferring to roll the dice on striking gold with players that were in some cases obtuse selections. But I'd wager they did so as a result of the situation they were in. Top paid QB. Top paid Safeties... and high dollar contracts throughout the team. But a team that on paper, had the talent to compete. Even up to 2020, they were sending more players to the probowl than all but the Ravens. So they've gambled and lost, but did so with money in the bank.

Circumstances are different now, so to look at their performance in acquiring talent over that period vs what is now a very different reality... like I said. Apples and Oranges.

 

[nwHawk]

Defense and running the ball will always be a strategy to win in the league. If that wasn't the case, Aaron Rodgers would be the 7 time champion and not Tom Brady. Doesn't matter if it's 2022 or Dan Marino and John Elway in 1992.

I wish others would realize this as well.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Find me a team that has been successful in the past 10 years consistently by building around the run game and defense.

You have 1. The 49ers.

Unless you count regular season heroes and playoff zeros like the Browns, Colts, and Titans.

Building around the run game and defense turns you into those 3 teams and the Browns didn't even start to matter until they got Watson.

The Colts MAYBE now they have an aging Ryan.

Nobody cares about the Titans.


So no, you cannot build around the run game and defense and expect to be a consistent playoff threat and have a good chance to win a SB.

Certainly, a run game helps (though there is little evidence that a better run game than average makes any difference)

But no great QB, nobody cares. You might sneak into the playoffs once. You might even win one game. That is the exception, not the rule.

There is no sustained success in today's NFL without a top-tier QB. Not consistently. There are plenty of teams that are consistently successful that have a great QB and a pretty threadbare team in other areas. The Packers are one.

 

[SoulfishHawk]

According to many on this site, the ONLY reason the Hawks were successful was because of the Defense and Running game. I mean, a certain departed HOF player clearly had nothing to do with them winning

 

[John63]

I wish others would realize this as well.

And again the rams were not top 10 in defense or run game but they were in passing and I can go on. there are way more teams that have won an SB without a great run game and with a Passing game than the other way. I can use our very own Seahawks 2011 top run game and defense, 7-9.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I think the FO deserves a reset. Pete has been stubborn and placed loyalty and faith in underperforming players and coaches to improve, well beyond the point he should have. But Pete and John have also shown brilliance in building and sustaining one of the most successful franchises in recent NFL history.

They did gamble and lose between 2015 and 2019. Can't excuse the blunders. But they were also playing to a different criteria, preferring to roll the dice on striking gold with players that were in some cases obtuse selections. But I'd wager they did so as a result of the situation they were in. Top paid QB. Top paid Safeties... and high dollar contracts throughout the team. But a team that on paper, had the talent to compete. Even up to 2020, they were sending more players to the probowl than all but the Ravens. So they've gambled and lost, but did so with money in the bank.

Circumstances are different now, so to look at their performance in acquiring talent over that period vs what is now a very different reality... like I said. Apples and Oranges.

Fair post, and even though I wanted Pete gone this past off season, I'm willing to give him and John a couple years to try and rebuild another contender.

Do I think it'll work? Err............that's another question.

 

[hox]

The running vs passing more argument doesn't really make sense. The key for an offense to have sustained success is NOT being one-dimensional. In order to not be one-dimensional, you need to do both well. Ie, Balanced.

The LRC campaign was extremely one-dimensional... boom or bust. Chunk plays, awesome. But also, quick three-and-outs. Lopsided TOP. That's not complimentary team football. And complimentary ball is the winning formula here.

 

[TwistedHusky]

It would be nice to think so Hoxrox. Not sure the #s agree with you.

I grew up to love watching the run game and a great defense. Seahawks fans were weaned on that and Husky fans were. It isn't a lack of appreciation for those things.

But the #s and the results don't seem to indicate balance is good at all.

Are the top teams balanced?

Is balance even needed or just enough to keep the defense slightly behind? (Like PA works even if you never or rarely run the ball, as long as there is the slimmest threat you will run - you can run effective PA, while barely running the ball)

Right now the #s seem to indicate high volume passing teams and top passing offenses are playoff teams. There are exceptions (Chargers, Steelers) but for the most part - you pass often, you win more.

And analytics says that passing is 3x more valuable than running. That is the math.

This is interesting considering:

1 - Losing teams need to pass more because they have to pass to catch up.

2 - Winning teams will tend to run more, because teams with a lead will tend to salt the game away by draining clock - limiting chances for the opposing possessions to stage a comeback.

So there should be a natural bias to running teams being winning teams. Not because running teams tend to win more, but because winning teams should tend to run more (after building leads).

That isn't what happens though. Top passing teams win. Top running teams seem to have no correlation to winning, or maybe a negative one. And balanced teams seem to have no correlation to winning at all.

Can you present good examples of where balanced teams are the most successful? Because it does not seem to be in the playoffs.

 

[John63]

The running vs passing more argument doesn't really make sense. The key for an offense to have sustained success is NOT being one-dimensional. In order to not be one-dimensional, you need to do both well. Ie, Balanced.

The LRC campaign was extremely one-dimensional... boom or bust. Chunk plays, awesome. But also, quick three-and-outs. Lopsided TOP. That's not complimentary team football. And complimentary ball is the winning formula here.

Really hmm the Rams had the 4th best TOP kind of blows the doors off your premise. They were also bottom 5 in 3rd and long. The issue here is not about complimentary or not. Of course, you want to run the ball, however, you also want to pass. the issue here and with the Hawks was the way they ran and passed and the timing. we have been very very predictable in our offense. every team knows it, and every expert knows it. Even last year with a few exceptions we were predictable. When it comes right down to it PC has shown time and time again any changes will never last or be given a fair chance. He will always revert to what he wants, which as he has said is to run and throw long outside the nubmes. He has said he wants to line up and just out-execute the other team. As history has shown does not work when the other team has superior or equal talent and we are always snapping the ball at the same time. There is a difference between being a passing team that runs and a running team that passes. The Rams were a passing team that ran. PC sees the offense as only there to help the defense. That is a huge problem.

 

[bmorepunk]

There is no sustained success in today's NFL without a top-tier QB. Not consistently. There are plenty of teams that are consistently successful that have a great QB and a pretty threadbare team in other areas. The Packers are one.

Whatever led up to Wilson leaving, the fact that he's gone puts the Seahawks in a relevance dumpster and the Broncos with a chance to do something every year. Even if he signs for a kajillion dollars.

 

[TwistedHusky]

Agree.

The reason people pay QBs so much is that they are needed to win.

The intent of this thread is to review whether a team that builds based on the run game and the defense has a chance to be a playoff contender (consistent winner) in today's NFL. Can you win with a solid roster and an average or even somewhat above average QB, but not great or exceptional QB>?

Maybe, like the Eagles did. Once. But not consistently, not over time. Not even likely once. So the answer is no.

You really cannot expect to win anything of note or measure until you get a QB.

And even worse, being a balanced offense might be a detriment. You could be at a simple disadvantage just by trying to run as much as you pass.

That isn't a great forecast for a team that wants to try winning without a QB (the only team successfully able has been the 49ers)

 

[hox]

Can you present good examples of where balanced teams are the most successful? Because it does not seem to be in the playoffs.

I posted this back a little while back, before this past post season:

Looking at the teams that made the conference championship games in the past 3 years:

2018 Conference Championship
Rams: Rushing offense 3rd | Passing offense 6th | Total offense 3rd - (Balanced)
Saints: Rushing offense 9th | Passing offense 10th | Total offense 8th - (Balanced)
Patriots: Rushing offense 5th | Passing offense 5th | Total offense 4th - (Balanced)
Chiefs: Rushing offense 15th | Passing offense 3rd | Total offense 1st - (Pass heavy)

2019 Conference Championship
Titans: Rushing offense 3rd | Passing offense 25th | Total offense 15th - (Rush heavy)
Chiefs: Rushing offense 22nd | Passing offense 4th | Total offense 4th - (Pass heavy)
Packers: Rushing offense 15th | Passing offense 14th | Total offense 17th - (Balanced)
49ers: Rushing offense 2nd | Passing offense 21st | Total offense 8th - (Rush heavy)

2020 Conference Championship
Bucs: Rushing offense 25th | Passing offense 3rd | Total 9th - (Pass heavy)
Packers: Rushing offense 8th | Passing offense 9th | Total 2nd - (Balanced)
Bills: Rushing offense 24th | Passing offense 4th | Total 4th - (Pass heavy)
Chiefs: Rushing offense 16th | Passing offense 1st | Total 1st - (Pass heavy)

So in the last 3 years, for teams that made it to the title games:

Balanced offense: 5
Pass heavy offense: 5
Rush heavy offense: 2

Not necessarily saying it should be 50/50 run/pass ratio. You just need to not be one-dimensional in what you can do. If you want to throw 30-40 times a game, that's fine. You just need to be extremely efficient on early downs... else find yourself in 3rd and long situations.

 

[nwHawk]

And again the rams were not top 10 in defense or run game but they were in passing and I can go on. there are way more teams that have won an SB without a great run game and with a Passing game than the other way. I can use our very own Seahawks 2011 top run game and defense, 7-9.

You bring that up, outside of stat checking did you actually watch those 2011 Seahawks games? I think we all want to know.

 

[John63]

You bring that up, outside of stat checking did you actually watch those 2011 Seahawks games? I think we all want to know.

1 yes, to irrelevant what you and others say you need a top run game and defense. 7-9. Proving just a top run game and defense is not enough.

 

[nwHawk]

1 yes, to irrelevant what you and others say you need a top run game and defense. 7-9. Proving just a top run game and defense is not enough.

So, you only proved that a top run & defensive team can’t win with their QB playing with a porn pec. Sorry, as you say, facts rule. Right?

 

[Scout]

Even the Bucs offense which is primarily a pass first offense tends to have a tendency to run more on first down than other teams in the league. The trend in the current NFL is to pass more often on first down than to run the football.

The year the Patriots beat the Rams in the SB they made a late playoff run on running the football because a lot of defenses during that year were playing a lot of nickel as a base defense. Adapt and exploit advantages whenever possible.

Whether a team is pass oriented or run oriented doesn't really matter overall. If a defense is playing cover 2 you have to make them pay by running the ball even if you are a pass first team. The Bucs and Chiefs of 2021 season faced a lot of cover 2 and had to run the football more or rely more on the short passing game. Both teams still were able to succeed because they adapted.

If teams are stacking the box and PC insists on running the football then it is clear that this team isn't going anywhere for 2022. But if Waldron and whomever lines up under center can make teams pay when defenses stack the box that is when you can really have an offense that can adapt strategies week to week and even during the games.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Even the Bucs offense which is primarily a pass first offense tends to have a tendency to run more on first down than other teams in the league. The trend in the current NFL is to pass more often on first down than to run the football...

Good nuanced perspective to the offensive approach, Scout.

 

[TwistedHusky]

It gives me a sliver of hope.

The Rams and 49ers are pretty unique situations. One with the NFL literally pushing them towards a SB at every opportunity, and the 49ers having the most innovative rushing attack and one of the most innovative offensive minds in the league - combined with one of the best DLs and LB groups.

Not sure anyone considers the Titans any kind of serious contender, they got a good series of matchups to get as far as they did that one time, but few serious football fans outside of TN expected them to do anything.

Both the 49ers and Rams did have great coaches with keen offensive minds to help them. We won't have that. But while unlikely, it is possible.