Which Division Winners Have the Longest Odds of Repeating?

[Jegpeg]

I'm a little worried by this. This is the guy who predicted the Redskins were most secure division champions last year with the Cards and Panthers close behind.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...texans-among-most-vulnerable-division-winners

Having said that I would put us and the Patriots as the two strong favourites to repeat (no team is a lock in) but the Pats quite a bit above us, I could see the cardinals come back to 2015 form but I can't see the dolphins getting 10 wins again and the pats schedule isn't as brutal as people make out.

The next tier I would put the Packers, Steelers and Cowboys. Of those I would say the Cowboys are the strongest team (I expect Elliot to improve with the extra experience, last off-season he wouldn't have had much practise until Romo got injured) but in the Giants (not the Redskins Gil) they have the strongest challengers.

Least likely to repeat I would put the Chiefs, the Raiders would have won that division if Carr had stayed fit last season and the Broncos can also challenge if they find an adequate QB. Texans are next, the weakest division champions in a division anyone can win (well probably not the jags)

 

[HawkGA]

I'm a little worried by this. This is the guy who predicted the Redskins were most secure division champions last year with the Cards and Panthers close behind.

Oh, I remember that. Yep, that was a stupid prediction.

 

[mikeak]

I loved the Watson pick for Houston. I think he will be good enough and especially on a short field and knowing 3pts is enough to win a lot of games.

Marriotta will end up injured again

 

[Josea16]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

^Homer post. As usual.

I didn't respond to yours with hater post. As usual. :irishdrinkers: So tell me, which part? The Falcons really do play @Seattle and not @Santa Clara (in the opener, only game west of the Mississippi or at 1 pm pst all year). Is that not advantage Panthers? Matt Kalil has had injury and performance issues (on a horrible Vikings OL without his brother and Moton was still drafted for depth, but still) and there's still major depth concerns at safety after the starters, and Charles Johnson has ongoing back concerns even though Addison will get more reps at this point-those are probably sweeter to your ears to hear-but what else can an informed person say other than the truth as it is? The smart money is on the Panthers bouncing back in a major way to with the South for the 4th time in 5 years.

There is one big issue with that theory, unlike the Panthers the Falcons didn't self destruct after the loss, as a team your biggest asset and problem is

Until he grows up and becomes a leader in times of difficulty as well as success the Panthers will have issues.

That division is pretty loaded and Tampa Bay is very dangerous. Irrregardless of Atlanta (which won't do anything..... Superbowl hangover, you know all about that yet believed nobody that told you it was a thing and would happen to your team last year). I just didn't figure it would crush your team like it did but I didn't figure in Manchild Cam. That boy is day/night and a serious Issue for the Panthers until proven different. He has no sack. Very similar to Keapernick in that regard actually. Not anywhere as bad because he's actually working on his craft but very similar mental makeup in my opinion.

 

[JumpmanXhawk]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

Peppers is 37. You overestimate his value. Atlanta has more talent, a smarter QB, and a better coach than the kitties. Carolina might have an outside shot, but with a gun to my head, I'd put money on the Falcons ten times out of ten in that division.

Smarter QB, don't know about that. Kyle made Matt Ryan last year and that was obvious from the season he had prior. As much as we love Dan, he might be the 3rd best coach in hat division. Rivera and Peyton have done it more than one season with their respective teams. Carolina still has a better front 7 than Atlanta and it might not be close. One things for sure that division as a whole won't have any trouble scoring points. It'll just come down to who's defense steps up and for parts of last season the Bucs and Panthers defense were better than the Falcons. And out of all of this if the saints give Brees and AVERAGE defense they would've been in the playoffs just about every year.

 

[JumpmanXhawk]

[/quote]
That division is pretty loaded and Tampa Bay is very dangerous. Irrregardless of Atlanta (which won't do anything..... Superbowl hangover, you know all about that yet believed nobody that told you it was a thing and would happen to your team last year). I just didn't figure it would crush your team like it did but I didn't figure in Manchild Cam. That boy is day/night and a serious Issue for the Panthers until proven different. He has no sack. Very similar to Keapernick in that regard actually. Not anywhere as bad because he's actually working on his craft but very similar mental makeup in my opinion.[/quote]

To be fair the panthers did lose 6 games by 3 points or less and out of those there was at least 4 games where if gano would've made his kicks they would've won..... I just don't see this Crown juggernaut that yall see in the Falcons.

 

[Popeyejones]

I'm a little worried by this. This is the guy who predicted the Redskins were most secure division champions last year with the Cards and Panthers close behind.

Oh, I remember that. Yep, that was a stupid prediction.

In hindsight absolutely, but at the time it made a lot of sense, IMO.

 

[kidhawk]

I don't know about anyone else, but I never expect pre or off season predictions to pan out often no matter who makes them. I just think they make great topics of discussion and debate. Honestly, on paper, our division looks fairly weak and we may not have improved alot, but (again on paper) we haven't been gained on much by our competitors. Obviously the games are played on the field and not on paper, and that is why the regular season is so interesting to watch as it unfolds. There are always some great surprises and some not so great ones as well. it's all perspective.

 

[ctrcat]

I don't know about anyone else, but I never expect pre or off season predictions to pan out often no matter who makes them. I just think they make great topics of discussion and debate. Honestly, on paper, our division looks fairly weak and we may not have improved alot, but (again on paper) we haven't been gained on much by our competitors. Obviously the games are played on the field and not on paper, and that is why the regular season is so interesting to watch as it unfolds. There are always some great surprises and some not so great ones as well. it's all perspective.

Even during the season. I recall a thread here in 2015 after the Falcons were 5-0 how they looked to have a cakewalk to a 1st round bye.

 

[kidhawk]

I don't know about anyone else, but I never expect pre or off season predictions to pan out often no matter who makes them. I just think they make great topics of discussion and debate. Honestly, on paper, our division looks fairly weak and we may not have improved alot, but (again on paper) we haven't been gained on much by our competitors. Obviously the games are played on the field and not on paper, and that is why the regular season is so interesting to watch as it unfolds. There are always some great surprises and some not so great ones as well. it's all perspective.

Even during the season. I recall a thread here in 2015 after the Falcons were 5-0 how they looked to have a cakewalk to a 1st round bye.

Honestly, I'd say the same thing about in season power rankings and other such measures....you have to kind of take them all with a grain of salt. They are great debate topics, but they don't mean a thing when it comes to the guys facing off on the field week in and week out.

With enough conjecture, some are bound to be right while others are wrong, but the only thing that matters is the actual outcome on the field. Meanwhile we get to talk about it here for the rest of the time when there are no actual games going on (whether it's between games or between seasons)

 

[Popeyejones]

^^^^Totally agreed with both of you.

Predictions, power-rankings, etc. need to be viewed as entertainment in themselves. That they're regularly wrong is kinda missing the point, IMO.

EDIT: Looks like kidhawk brought up power rankings as the same type of thing at the same time that I was. :2thumbs:

 

[ctrcat]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

Peppers is 37. You overestimate his value. Atlanta has more talent, a smarter QB, and a better coach than the kitties. Carolina might have an outside shot, but with a gun to my head, I'd put money on the Falcons ten times out of ten in that division.

Smarter QB, don't know about that. Kyle made Matt Ryan last year and that was obvious from the season he had prior. As much as we love Dan, he might be the 3rd best coach in hat division. Rivera and Peyton have done it more than one season with their respective teams. Carolina still has a better front 7 than Atlanta and it might not be close. One things for sure that division as a whole won't have any trouble scoring points. It'll just come down to who's defense steps up and for parts of last season the Bucs and Panthers defense were better than the Falcons. And out of all of this if the saints give Brees and AVERAGE defense they would've been in the playoffs just about every year.

The Saints are scatterbrained buffoons. They traded their best playmaker for what amounted to a LT with injury and desire questions, even though they have already invested a lot in the position and have numerous other holes. Stone hands, older Ginn without Cam's big arm? Good luck. They'll win some games at their dome like they do but another wasted sub-.500 season is inevitable.

 

[JumpmanXhawk]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

Peppers is 37. You overestimate his value. Atlanta has more talent, a smarter QB, and a better coach than the kitties. Carolina might have an outside shot, but with a gun to my head, I'd put money on the Falcons ten times out of ten in that division.

Smarter QB, don't know about that. Kyle made Matt Ryan last year and that was obvious from the season he had prior. As much as we love Dan, he might be the 3rd best coach in hat division. Rivera and Peyton have done it more than one season with their respective teams. Carolina still has a better front 7 than Atlanta and it might not be close. One things for sure that division as a whole won't have any trouble scoring points. It'll just come down to who's defense steps up and for parts of last season the Bucs and Panthers defense were better than the Falcons. And out of all of this if the saints give Brees and AVERAGE defense they would've been in the playoffs just about every year.

The Saints are scatterbrained buffoons. They traded their best playmaker for what amounted to a LT with injury and desire questions, even though they have already invested a lot in the position and have numerous other holes. Stone hands, older Ginn without Cam's big arm? Good luck. They'll win some games at their dome like they do but another wasted sub-.500 season is inevitable.

 

[Jegpeg]

I'm a little worried by this. This is the guy who predicted the Redskins were most secure division champions last year with the Cards and Panthers close behind.

Oh, I remember that. Yep, that was a stupid prediction.

In hindsight absolutely, but at the time it made a lot of sense, IMO.

Reading the text there is a lot that makes sense, the Giants have a strong offence with OBJ and Eli Manning and have spent big to produce what should be an awesome defence, Ezekiel Elliot should be a start for the Cowboys and Cousins was coming off a great year. However whereas (this year) Elliot and Prescott are going to come down to earth with a bump after last season, Cousins was going to go from strength to strength.

A remember reading it at the time and thinking, how did he jump to that conclusion, I thought if Romo stayed fit the Cowboys would win the division and if he didn't then it would probably go to the Giants, the Redskins would have a chance but certainly not enough to be the most secure team in the league. To be honest, Cards and Panthers second and third were reasonable selections.

On the other side he seemed to totally overdo the importance of the Brady suspension. Garappolo was a competant back-up and while I expected them to lose to the Cards, I expected Brady to come back to a team probably 2-2 fresh and with a fire in his belly and a pretty easy schedule.

Digging out a post I made at the start of last season (post Romo injury), I had the Pats to win their division by 3, Panthers and Cards by 2 and all the other division champions to miss out. (Giants to win NFC East with a comment I would have picked the Cowboys pre Romo injury)

 

[Optimus25]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

Eh, not so sure about the "brutal". After a perfectly-placed mid-season bye, they get four home and four away. Five of the games are in-division gimmes. They do go to QB-less Denver for a night game. The only semi-daunting match is a Week 15 jaunt to Pittsburgh, before finishing the year with two delicious cupcakes (Miami, Buffalo) served up piping hot in Gillette Stadium.

Considering all they'll need to do is squeak out a 9-7 overall record (which includes the 6 divisional byes Brady has had every year of his career) to take it, I'd say the inevitability of their repeating can be stopped only by multiple, catastrophic injuries.

That being said, our division is amazingly ripe for the taking this year. Between dum dum give me gum gum goff, Brian seventeen interceptions in a home playoff game hoyer, and wheelchair bound fifty seven year old Carson Palmer, there's just no smart money anywhere in this division except the hawks. I'd personally put the dolphins threat on par with the cards and the bills with the rams and the jets with the niners, except in all of those comparisons the afc East suckbots are projected to slope positive while the nfc West cannon fodder is mostly either wildly unstable or just simply unable to reach 10 wins if their lives depended on it, or in other words projected to slope negative. Which is the tie breaker in the pats vs hawks easiest path to division champ preseason contest.

I also agree with previous posting regarding brutal patriots schedule. I think the easiest money out there is betting the patriots won't hit 13 wins in the futures props. It's even money last i saw and i don't see even a remote possibility they survive that gauntlet and come out with only 3 losses.

 

[BostonBlackie]

I also agree with previous posting regarding brutal patriots schedule. I think the easiest money out there is betting the patriots won't hit 13 wins in the futures props. It's even money last i saw and i don't see even a remote possibility they survive that gauntlet and come out with only 3 losses.

I never bet Patriots games because I'm too emotionally involved to trust my judgement, but that's an interesting bet.

 

[ctrcat]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

Eh, not so sure about the "brutal". After a perfectly-placed mid-season bye, they get four home and four away. Five of the games are in-division gimmes. They do go to QB-less Denver for a night game. The only semi-daunting match is a Week 15 jaunt to Pittsburgh, before finishing the year with two delicious cupcakes (Miami, Buffalo) served up piping hot in Gillette Stadium.

Considering all they'll need to do is squeak out a 9-7 overall record (which includes the 6 divisional byes Brady has had every year of his career) to take it, I'd say the inevitability of their repeating can be stopped only by multiple, catastrophic injuries.

That being said, our division is amazingly ripe for the taking this year. Between dum dum give me gum gum goff, Brian seventeen interceptions in a home playoff game hoyer, and wheelchair bound fifty seven year old Carson Palmer, there's just no smart money anywhere in this division except the hawks. I'd personally put the dolphins threat on par with the cards and the bills with the rams and the jets with the niners, except in all of those comparisons the afc East suckbots are projected to slope positive while the nfc West cannon fodder is mostly either wildly unstable or just simply unable to reach 10 wins if their lives depended on it, or in other words projected to slope negative. Which is the tie breaker in the pats vs hawks easiest path to division champ preseason contest.

I also agree with previous posting regarding brutal patriots schedule. I think the easiest money out there is betting the patriots won't hit 13 wins in the futures props. It's even money last i saw and i don't see even a remote possibility they survive that gauntlet and come out with only 3 losses.

Agree. A lot of value in people assuming every single thing they touch turning to gold when there are numerous examples of that not being the case. It's actually shocking reading how much they're puffing up and counting on a guy that was going to be cut in Kony Ealy. The move was widely praised from a Patriots perspective and precious few know that the move cost them their draft target Dan Feeney and left a hole in their OG/C situation as a result.

 

[JumpmanXhawk]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

Eh, not so sure about the "brutal". After a perfectly-placed mid-season bye, they get four home and four away. Five of the games are in-division gimmes. They do go to QB-less Denver for a night game. The only semi-daunting match is a Week 15 jaunt to Pittsburgh, before finishing the year with two delicious cupcakes (Miami, Buffalo) served up piping hot in Gillette Stadium.

Considering all they'll need to do is squeak out a 9-7 overall record (which includes the 6 divisional byes Brady has had every year of his career) to take it, I'd say the inevitability of their repeating can be stopped only by multiple, catastrophic injuries.

That being said, our division is amazingly ripe for the taking this year. Between dum dum give me gum gum goff, Brian seventeen interceptions in a home playoff game hoyer, and wheelchair bound fifty seven year old Carson Palmer, there's just no smart money anywhere in this division except the hawks. I'd personally put the dolphins threat on par with the cards and the bills with the rams and the jets with the niners, except in all of those comparisons the afc East suckbots are projected to slope positive while the nfc West cannon fodder is mostly either wildly unstable or just simply unable to reach 10 wins if their lives depended on it, or in other words projected to slope negative. Which is the tie breaker in the pats vs hawks easiest path to division champ preseason contest.

I also agree with previous posting regarding brutal patriots schedule. I think the easiest money out there is betting the patriots won't hit 13 wins in the futures props. It's even money last i saw and i don't see even a remote possibility they survive that gauntlet and come out with only 3 losses.

Agree. A lot of value in people assuming every single thing they touch turning to gold when there are numerous examples of that not being the case. It's actually shocking reading how much they're puffing up and counting on a guy that was going to be cut in Kony Ealy. The move was widely praised from a Patriots perspective and precious few know that the move cost them their draft target Dan Feeney and left a hole in their OG/C situation as a result.

Its hilarious, that a guy who basically hasn't done anything outside of his Superbowl performance is touted as a steal for the Patriots. Kony is extremely underwhelming

 

[ctrcat]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

Eh, not so sure about the "brutal". After a perfectly-placed mid-season bye, they get four home and four away. Five of the games are in-division gimmes. They do go to QB-less Denver for a night game. The only semi-daunting match is a Week 15 jaunt to Pittsburgh, before finishing the year with two delicious cupcakes (Miami, Buffalo) served up piping hot in Gillette Stadium.

Considering all they'll need to do is squeak out a 9-7 overall record (which includes the 6 divisional byes Brady has had every year of his career) to take it, I'd say the inevitability of their repeating can be stopped only by multiple, catastrophic injuries.
That being said, our division is amazingly ripe for the taking this year. Between dum dum give me gum gum goff, Brian seventeen interceptions in a home playoff game hoyer, and wheelchair bound fifty seven year old Carson Palmer, there's just no smart money anywhere in this division except the hawks. I'd personally put the dolphins threat on par with the cards and the bills with the rams and the jets with the niners, except in all of those comparisons the afc East suckbots are projected to slope positive while the nfc West cannon fodder is mostly either wildly unstable or just simply unable to reach 10 wins if their lives depended on it, or in other words projected to slope negative. Which is the tie breaker in the pats vs hawks easiest path to division champ preseason contest.

I also agree with previous posting regarding brutal patriots schedule. I think the easiest money out there is betting the patriots won't hit 13 wins in the futures props. It's even money last i saw and i don't see even a remote possibility they survive that gauntlet and come out with only 3 losses.

Agree. A lot of value in people assuming every single thing they touch turning to gold when there are numerous examples of that not being the case. It's actually shocking reading how much they're puffing up and counting on a guy that was going to be cut in Kony Ealy. The move was widely praised from a Patriots perspective and precious few know that the move cost them their draft target Dan Feeney and left a hole in their OG/C situation as a result.

Its hilarious, that a guy who basically hasn't done anything outside of his Superbowl performance is touted as a steal for the Patriots. Kony is extremely underwhelming

It'd be one thing if it was just an acquisition as a rotational DE, far less than 50% of the snaps, with the potential to be more down the road. But no, it's to start, take a majority of snaps, and dominate in a contract year, just because he's a Pat. It's just, wow.

 

[5_Golden_Rings]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

The Bucs are just about ready to make a real run, so I think the Falcons better watch out.