Which Division Winners Have the Longest Odds of Repeating?

[kidhawk]

According to Gil Brandt at NFL.com the teams with the longest odds to repeat as division champions are the Texans then the Cowboys....the team with the best odds at repeating? Seahawks then the Patriiots. See the full list in order at the link

[urltargetblank]http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000807436/article/texans-cowboys-among-most-vulnerable-division-winners[/urltargetblank]

 

[Maulbert]

I agree with the article. Houston and Dallas. Houston wouldn't have won the AFC South last year if Marcus Mariota didn't break his leg in the 2nd to last game of the season, and Dallas is to 2017 what Carolina was to 2016.

 

[Sports Hernia]

Dallas, played a last place schedule last year, play a real schedule this year......They got lucky with injuries last year. Defense still sucks and has even less experience than last year.

Actually surprised Dallas was on Brandnt's list, as he is a bit of a Dallas homer, if you listen to him on Sirius.

 

[ctrcat]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

 

[Maulbert]

The Packers and Falcons likely to repeat is quite interesting. Julius Peppers was the Packers D. Now he and others join a core who have won the South 3 of 4 years vs. an all time hangover candidate in the Falcons. The Bucs still have no D and won 2 of the near NFL record Panthers 3 point or less losses because Derek Anderson played and Olsen fell down intentionally to preserve the #8 pick.

Peppers is 37. You overestimate his value. Atlanta has more talent, a smarter QB, and a better coach than the kitties. Carolina might have an outside shot, but with a gun to my head, I'd put money on the Falcons ten times out of ten in that division.

 

[chris98251]

Falcons have added pieces to their weakness from last year and were not broken in their loss as much as invigorated to come back in my opinion, the Kitties, the weakness they have is behind Center, when things are going good it's right as rain, have a bit of adversity and the wheels start coming off.

 

[ctrcat]

^ Won't get into the Grand Canyon sized disagreement on countless fronts there, but another additional piece among others the Panthers added was a kicker-the first drafted one in franchise history, assuming he beats out Gano. Gano missed the soul crushing kick in the opener last year after Cam led into FG range after his assault on national TV, Gano missed in the Super Bowl, Gano missed an XP to tie last year in New Orleans, Gano even missed an XP in Seattle in 2015 which meant only a TD would win it. He (of less than 80% career) sucks and is likely out.

 

[HawkGA]

How can the Patriots not beat out the Hawks for most likely to repeat? Haven't they won that division every year for like two decades?

 

[bigskydoc]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

 

[VivaEfrenHerrera]

Because their post-bye stretch is simply brutal, and we have a favorable schedule this year. Though call, but I agree with Brandt for once.

Eh, not so sure about the "brutal". After a perfectly-placed mid-season bye, they get four home and four away. Five of the games are in-division gimmes. They do go to QB-less Denver for a night game. The only semi-daunting match is a Week 15 jaunt to Pittsburgh, before finishing the year with two delicious cupcakes (Miami, Buffalo) served up piping hot in Gillette Stadium.

Considering all they'll need to do is squeak out a 9-7 overall record (which includes the 6 divisional byes Brady has had every year of his career) to take it, I'd say the inevitability of their repeating can be stopped only by multiple, catastrophic injuries.

 

[ctrcat]

^Obviously they can win games without him, but will Brady be healthy for 16 games? Obviously the refs take care of him unlike some, but 40 is 40. Peppers is one if the all time athletic freaks and was the single best player on the field as recently as a January 2017 playoff game, but since his birthday says 37 he's supposedly overvalued.

 

[Erebus]

I don't see the Falcons as likely to repeat, but it's certainly possible. The SB hangover is real, and it impacted the Panthers last year just as expected, though few wanted to admit it could happen. But that isn't their biggest problem. The Falcons are in a tough division with any of the four teams perfectly capable of winning the division. The Panthers are obviously very talented, just one year removed from a (albeit fluky) 15-1 season.

 

[ctrcat]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

 

[Maulbert]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

^Homer post. As usual.

 

[ctrcat]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

^Homer post. As usual.

I didn't respond to yours with hater post. As usual. :irishdrinkers: So tell me, which part? The Falcons really do play @Seattle and not @Santa Clara (in the opener, only game west of the Mississippi or at 1 pm pst all year). Is that not advantage Panthers? Matt Kalil has had injury and performance issues (on a horrible Vikings OL without his brother and Moton was still drafted for depth, but still) and there's still major depth concerns at safety after the starters, and Charles Johnson has ongoing back concerns even though Addison will get more reps at this point-those are probably sweeter to your ears to hear-but what else can an informed person say other than the truth as it is? The smart money is on the Panthers bouncing back in a major way to with the South for the 4th time in 5 years.

 

[chris98251]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

^Homer post. As usual.

I didn't respond to yours with hater post. As usual. :irishdrinkers: So tell me, which part? The Falcons really do play @Seattle and not @Santa Clara (in the opener, only game west of the Mississippi or at 1 pm pst all year). Is that not advantage Panthers? Matt Kalil has had injury and performance issues (on a horrible Vikings OL without his brother and Moton was still drafted for depth, but still) and there's still major depth concerns at safety after the starters, and Charles Johnson has ongoing back concerns even though Addison will get more reps at this point-those are probably sweeter to your ears to hear-but what else can an informed person say other than the truth as it is? The smart money is on the Panthers bouncing back in a major way to with the South for the 4th time in 5 years.

There is one big issue with that theory, unlike the Panthers the Falcons didn't self destruct after the loss, as a team your biggest asset and problem is

Until he grows up and becomes a leader in times of difficulty as well as success the Panthers will have issues.

 

[HawkGA]

Panthers aren't the only reason the Falcons will have trouble repeating. The Saints and Bucs, while certainly not expected to win the division, can't just be written off.

 

[sdog1981]

There is one big issue with that theory, unlike the Panthers, the Falcons didn't self-destruct after the loss, as a team your biggest asset and problem is

Until he grows up and becomes a leader in times of difficulty as well as success the Panthers will have issues.

Two people play QB for the Panthers.

Cam: League MVP and freak QB who can lead any team to a championship. He is fun, he is laughing, and he is dabbing.

and

Cameron: Cameron is the moody preteen who quits when things don't go his way. He sits on the bench with a towel over his head. When Cameron shows up the team is doomed. The second half of SB 50 Cameron showed up, he was a quitter and moody.


If you want to beat the Panthers all you have to do is get Cameron to show up and your time will win because Cameron quits.

 

[ctrcat]

^Good post. The Falcons have other problems as well. Among them, a loss of coaches on both sides of the ball, and playing @Seattle and Dallas while the Panthers play @San Fran and Philly. In the salary cap era, no team is without flaws, but on paper the problems that plagued the Panthers in 2016 (inexperience/talent/depth in the secondary, DE talent and depth, OT talent and depth, speed/youth/big play ability on offense, special teams) have been addressed in a big way.

^Homer post. As usual.

I didn't respond to yours with hater post. As usual. :irishdrinkers: So tell me, which part? The Falcons really do play @Seattle and not @Santa Clara (in the opener, only game west of the Mississippi or at 1 pm pst all year). Is that not advantage Panthers? Matt Kalil has had injury and performance issues (on a horrible Vikings OL without his brother and Moton was still drafted for depth, but still) and there's still major depth concerns at safety after the starters, and Charles Johnson has ongoing back concerns even though Addison will get more reps at this point-those are probably sweeter to your ears to hear-but what else can an informed person say other than the truth as it is? The smart money is on the Panthers bouncing back in a major way to with the South for the 4th time in 5 years.

There is one big issue with that theory, unlike the Panthers the Falcons didn't self destruct after the loss, as a team your biggest asset and problem is

Until he grows up and becomes a leader in times of difficulty as well as success the Panthers will have issues.

How in the world can one say at this point the Falcons didn't self destruct after the loss? The only thing they did not do was let a player of Josh Norman's caliber go. A move, that, by the way, produced Seattle's own Daeshon Hall with a comp pick and allowed Short to be extended and other holes to be filled as a result. The long term verdict is years away from being rendered on that.

 

[Popeyejones]

The Hawks are the only good team in the NFL playing in a division in which every other team in the division didn't even have a winning record last year (and it's not because they had to play the Hawks -- the Hawks had three wins, two losses, and a tie in the NFCW last year).

Across the NFL if they're not the odds on favorite to win their division this year someone just isn't thinking.

As for the Falcons, they'd be a favorite not to repeat for me too (no dog teams in their division, they were .500 the year before, they lost their OC and their offense is what got them there). They might win their division again, but I think it will be a fight. TBF it's the same story with Dallas, although they do have more continuity.