Everyone,
Now that the Lions have proven they are still the lions losing a heartbreaker 16-18 to the Ravens, I can now give the full NFC Playoff Picture including clinches and elimination scenarios for week 16.
To start here is the current Playoff Picture:
#1 Seattle_x (NFCW), 12-2 (Div 3-1, Conf 9-1)
#2 New Orleans (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 4-0, Conf 8-2)
#3 Philly (NFCE), 8-6 (Div 3-2, Conf 7-3)
#4 Chicago (NFCN), 8-6 (Div 2-3, Conf 4-6)
#5 Carolina (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 3-1, Conf 7-3) [Head to Head vs San Fran]
#6 San Fran(NFCW), 10-4 (Div 4-1, Conf 7-3)
x: Seattle has clinched a playoff spot.
The following teams are still mathematically alive:
Arizona(NFCW), 9-5 (Div 1-3, Conf 5-5)
Green Bay (NFCN) 7-6-1 (Div 2-2-1, Conf 5-5-1)
Detroit (NFCN) 7-7 (Div 4-1, Conf 6-4)
Dallas (NFCE) 7-7 (Div 4-0, Conf 6-4)
Before getting into the specifics, I want to point out a couple of things to make the picture clearer. Of all the teams still alive but on the outside looking in, Arizona and only Arizona can qualify for a wildcard spot. Greenbay, Detroit, and Dallas can not reach the 10 win threshhold needed, and Chicago even it it gets 10 wins would lose all tiebreaks with other potential wildcard teams.....and would win the NFCN crown regardless rendering the wildcard moot.
That means there are three pools of teams. The first pool consists of Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina, San Fran, and Arizona all fighting for four playoff spots. Seattle is assured of one, and Arizona is on the verge of being eliminated from the conversation.
Philly and Dallas are fighting it out for the NFCE crown and Philly has a one game lead, but Dallas would win the tiebreak.
Finally Chicago has a one half game lead (over Green Bay) for the NFCN crown and Chicago plays Green Bay on week 17. That means both Green Bay and Chicago control their own destiny for the NFCN Crown and that wildcard spot. Detroit is on the outside looking in at one game back, and has to hope that both Chicago and Greenbay lose one.
Here are the specific team scenarios starting with the current #1 seed Seattle:
Seattle's playoff picture is extremely simple. They are in the playoffs already, and are assured of having the best record in the NFC (but might lose a tiebreak to San Fran). That means that if Seattle does anything but lose in it's final two games, it clinches the #1 seed. What's more Seattle wins all tiebreaks *except* San Fran which means that if San Fran does anything but win out, Seattle also gets the #1 Seed. Thus for week 15:
1. Win or tie (vs Arizona) and Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
2. San Fran ties or loses (vs Atlanta), Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
Seattle can only be the #1 or #5 seed. They are eliminated from all other seeds and are assured a playoff berth.
The picture for San Fransisco is also actually fairly simple. They can not be the #3 and #4 seeds since San Fran would have to tie Seattle to get the NFCW Crown and that would take a minimum of 12 wins (and winning out). However, San Fran can still be eliminated since they lose tiebreaks to both New Orleans and Carolina, and can still finish third in the NFCW behind Arizona. San Fran, however, wins all tiebreaks with Arizona because of division record. This means that San Fran can't be eliminated from the playoffs in week 16 (but can from the division race), but can clinch a playoff spot. San Fran can not clinch the NFCW in week 16. This leads to the following scenarios:
San Fransisco Clinches a Playoff spot if:
1. San Fran wins (vs Atlanta)
2. Seattle wins (vs Arizona) [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as well]
3. San Fran and Seattle both tie [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as well]
San Fran is eliminated from the NFCW race with a loss or tie (see Seattle)
New Orleans also has a relatively simple playoff picture. At 10-4 and with one win against Carolina, New Orleans has the inside track to the NFCS and the #2 seed. We know that the Champion of the NFCS can not be the #3 or #4 seed because the minimum record needed to win the NFCS will be 10-5-1 which is a half game better than any possible record from the NFCE and NFCN. Thus:
New Orleans will clinch the NFCS and a first round bye (#2 seed minimum) with:
1. A win
New Orleans can still clinch a playoff spot with any of the following:
1. A Seattle win (or rather an Arizona loss). This is because New Orleans owns the tiebreak vs Arizona
2. A San Fransisco Loss+Arizona Tie. This is because New Orleans owns the tiebreak vs San Fran (head to head), and Arizona (conference).
3. Tie and Arizona Tie
4. Tie and San Fran loss or tie
New Orleans can not be eliminated from the playoffs in week 16. Elimination would require losing out and for Arizona and Carolina winning out, and San Fran winning at least one game. New Orleans can not get the #3 seed or the #4 seed. All other playoff seeds are possible.
Because Carolina loses the conference tiebreak with New Orleans even if they win in week 16 vs N.O., Carolina can not clinch the NFCS in week 16 unlike N.O. However, like N.O., they too control their own destiny for the NFCS Crown. Unlike New Orleans, Carolina lost to Arizona and that affects the playoff scenarios as follows:
Carolina Clinches a Playoff Spot in week 16 with:
1. A win. This would put Carolina at 11 wins. Arizona could at best tie this mark, and a three way tiebreak with New Orleans would be irrelevant since one or the other would win the division. Also Arizona has to play San Fran in week 17 which would prevent a scenario that forces a head to head comparison (at worst it would be a three way tie, and Carolina would win the initial three way tie).
2. Tie+Seattle Win. This would put Carolina out of reach of Arizona. [This also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture]
3. Tie+San Fran Loss. This would put Carolina out of reach of San Fran and also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture.
4. Seattle tie+San Fran Loss. This locks Seattle out of the wildcard. Since Arizona and San Fran play each other, this last game will eliminate one of them in this case leaving a spot for Carolina.
Arizona is an interesting case. Arizona can not clinch a playoff spot in week 16 mainly because they are on the outside looking in, have been already eliminated from the NFCW race (in week 13), and lose ALL the tiebreaks because of a wretched conference record save vs head to head vs Carolina. That means Arizona is on the razor edge of being eliminated. For Arizona to make the playoffs, they have to force a tie vs Carolina for a wildcard spot and win that tiebreak. Most scenarios that have Arizona making it, also have San Fran making it, but that's not a requirement. The one thing that Arizona must avoid is a THREE way tie for the two wildcard spots with both Carolina and San Fran (which could easily happen). In such a case (either at 11-5 or 10-6), Carolina would get the first nod because of superior conference record, and then San Fran would get the second because of Division record. The head to head would not matter in this case.
That being so, Arizona can not clinch in week 16, but can be eliminated. Here is the elimination Scenario for Arizona:
Arizona Loss + Carolina Win Personally I think both are likely.
Note that Arizona can qualify for the five seed but is eliminated from seeds 1-4.
The above scenarios will help determine four of the six playoff spots. The following scenarios apply to the NFC East:
Philly: Philly's case is super easy. They win out, and they are in. Furthermore the only other team that matters to them is Dallas who they can not tie. Because Philly has a one game lead on Dallas, Philly can not be eliminated but can clinch. The reverse applies to Dallas.
Philly clinches the NFCE if:
1. Philly win or tie + Dallas loss
2. Philly win + Dallas loss or tie
The Elimination scenarios for Dallas are the same as the clinching scenarios for Philly.
Finally we get to the Dumpster fire that is the NFC North. Right now both Chicago and Green Bay control their destinies (because they play each other in week 17). However Chicago can clinch in week 16 but Green Bay Can't (because Green Bay has a tie rather than a win).
Chicago Clinches the NFCN with:
Chicago win + Detriot Loss/Tie + Green Bay loss
Detroit is eliminated if:
1. Detroit loses + Chicago wins/ties
2. Detroit loses + Green Bay wins
Green Bay is eliminated if:
Green Bay loses + Chicago wins
I hope everyone finds this useful.
Now that the Lions have proven they are still the lions losing a heartbreaker 16-18 to the Ravens, I can now give the full NFC Playoff Picture including clinches and elimination scenarios for week 16.
To start here is the current Playoff Picture:
#1 Seattle_x (NFCW), 12-2 (Div 3-1, Conf 9-1)
#2 New Orleans (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 4-0, Conf 8-2)
#3 Philly (NFCE), 8-6 (Div 3-2, Conf 7-3)
#4 Chicago (NFCN), 8-6 (Div 2-3, Conf 4-6)
#5 Carolina (NFCS), 10-4 (Div 3-1, Conf 7-3) [Head to Head vs San Fran]
#6 San Fran(NFCW), 10-4 (Div 4-1, Conf 7-3)
x: Seattle has clinched a playoff spot.
The following teams are still mathematically alive:
Arizona(NFCW), 9-5 (Div 1-3, Conf 5-5)
Green Bay (NFCN) 7-6-1 (Div 2-2-1, Conf 5-5-1)
Detroit (NFCN) 7-7 (Div 4-1, Conf 6-4)
Dallas (NFCE) 7-7 (Div 4-0, Conf 6-4)
Before getting into the specifics, I want to point out a couple of things to make the picture clearer. Of all the teams still alive but on the outside looking in, Arizona and only Arizona can qualify for a wildcard spot. Greenbay, Detroit, and Dallas can not reach the 10 win threshhold needed, and Chicago even it it gets 10 wins would lose all tiebreaks with other potential wildcard teams.....and would win the NFCN crown regardless rendering the wildcard moot.
That means there are three pools of teams. The first pool consists of Seattle, New Orleans, Carolina, San Fran, and Arizona all fighting for four playoff spots. Seattle is assured of one, and Arizona is on the verge of being eliminated from the conversation.
Philly and Dallas are fighting it out for the NFCE crown and Philly has a one game lead, but Dallas would win the tiebreak.
Finally Chicago has a one half game lead (over Green Bay) for the NFCN crown and Chicago plays Green Bay on week 17. That means both Green Bay and Chicago control their own destiny for the NFCN Crown and that wildcard spot. Detroit is on the outside looking in at one game back, and has to hope that both Chicago and Greenbay lose one.
Here are the specific team scenarios starting with the current #1 seed Seattle:
Seattle's playoff picture is extremely simple. They are in the playoffs already, and are assured of having the best record in the NFC (but might lose a tiebreak to San Fran). That means that if Seattle does anything but lose in it's final two games, it clinches the #1 seed. What's more Seattle wins all tiebreaks *except* San Fran which means that if San Fran does anything but win out, Seattle also gets the #1 Seed. Thus for week 15:
1. Win or tie (vs Arizona) and Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
2. San Fran ties or loses (vs Atlanta), Seattle clinches the #1 seed.
Seattle can only be the #1 or #5 seed. They are eliminated from all other seeds and are assured a playoff berth.
The picture for San Fransisco is also actually fairly simple. They can not be the #3 and #4 seeds since San Fran would have to tie Seattle to get the NFCW Crown and that would take a minimum of 12 wins (and winning out). However, San Fran can still be eliminated since they lose tiebreaks to both New Orleans and Carolina, and can still finish third in the NFCW behind Arizona. San Fran, however, wins all tiebreaks with Arizona because of division record. This means that San Fran can't be eliminated from the playoffs in week 16 (but can from the division race), but can clinch a playoff spot. San Fran can not clinch the NFCW in week 16. This leads to the following scenarios:
San Fransisco Clinches a Playoff spot if:
1. San Fran wins (vs Atlanta)
2. Seattle wins (vs Arizona) [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as well]
3. San Fran and Seattle both tie [This eliminates San Fran from the NFCW as well]
San Fran is eliminated from the NFCW race with a loss or tie (see Seattle)
New Orleans also has a relatively simple playoff picture. At 10-4 and with one win against Carolina, New Orleans has the inside track to the NFCS and the #2 seed. We know that the Champion of the NFCS can not be the #3 or #4 seed because the minimum record needed to win the NFCS will be 10-5-1 which is a half game better than any possible record from the NFCE and NFCN. Thus:
New Orleans will clinch the NFCS and a first round bye (#2 seed minimum) with:
1. A win
New Orleans can still clinch a playoff spot with any of the following:
1. A Seattle win (or rather an Arizona loss). This is because New Orleans owns the tiebreak vs Arizona
2. A San Fransisco Loss+Arizona Tie. This is because New Orleans owns the tiebreak vs San Fran (head to head), and Arizona (conference).
3. Tie and Arizona Tie
4. Tie and San Fran loss or tie
New Orleans can not be eliminated from the playoffs in week 16. Elimination would require losing out and for Arizona and Carolina winning out, and San Fran winning at least one game. New Orleans can not get the #3 seed or the #4 seed. All other playoff seeds are possible.
Because Carolina loses the conference tiebreak with New Orleans even if they win in week 16 vs N.O., Carolina can not clinch the NFCS in week 16 unlike N.O. However, like N.O., they too control their own destiny for the NFCS Crown. Unlike New Orleans, Carolina lost to Arizona and that affects the playoff scenarios as follows:
Carolina Clinches a Playoff Spot in week 16 with:
1. A win. This would put Carolina at 11 wins. Arizona could at best tie this mark, and a three way tiebreak with New Orleans would be irrelevant since one or the other would win the division. Also Arizona has to play San Fran in week 17 which would prevent a scenario that forces a head to head comparison (at worst it would be a three way tie, and Carolina would win the initial three way tie).
2. Tie+Seattle Win. This would put Carolina out of reach of Arizona. [This also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture]
3. Tie+San Fran Loss. This would put Carolina out of reach of San Fran and also locks Seattle out of the Wildcard picture.
4. Seattle tie+San Fran Loss. This locks Seattle out of the wildcard. Since Arizona and San Fran play each other, this last game will eliminate one of them in this case leaving a spot for Carolina.
Arizona is an interesting case. Arizona can not clinch a playoff spot in week 16 mainly because they are on the outside looking in, have been already eliminated from the NFCW race (in week 13), and lose ALL the tiebreaks because of a wretched conference record save vs head to head vs Carolina. That means Arizona is on the razor edge of being eliminated. For Arizona to make the playoffs, they have to force a tie vs Carolina for a wildcard spot and win that tiebreak. Most scenarios that have Arizona making it, also have San Fran making it, but that's not a requirement. The one thing that Arizona must avoid is a THREE way tie for the two wildcard spots with both Carolina and San Fran (which could easily happen). In such a case (either at 11-5 or 10-6), Carolina would get the first nod because of superior conference record, and then San Fran would get the second because of Division record. The head to head would not matter in this case.
That being so, Arizona can not clinch in week 16, but can be eliminated. Here is the elimination Scenario for Arizona:
Arizona Loss + Carolina Win Personally I think both are likely.
Note that Arizona can qualify for the five seed but is eliminated from seeds 1-4.
The above scenarios will help determine four of the six playoff spots. The following scenarios apply to the NFC East:
Philly: Philly's case is super easy. They win out, and they are in. Furthermore the only other team that matters to them is Dallas who they can not tie. Because Philly has a one game lead on Dallas, Philly can not be eliminated but can clinch. The reverse applies to Dallas.
Philly clinches the NFCE if:
1. Philly win or tie + Dallas loss
2. Philly win + Dallas loss or tie
The Elimination scenarios for Dallas are the same as the clinching scenarios for Philly.
Finally we get to the Dumpster fire that is the NFC North. Right now both Chicago and Green Bay control their destinies (because they play each other in week 17). However Chicago can clinch in week 16 but Green Bay Can't (because Green Bay has a tie rather than a win).
Chicago Clinches the NFCN with:
Chicago win + Detriot Loss/Tie + Green Bay loss
Detroit is eliminated if:
1. Detroit loses + Chicago wins/ties
2. Detroit loses + Green Bay wins
Green Bay is eliminated if:
Green Bay loses + Chicago wins
I hope everyone finds this useful.
