Vegas Line

[Blitzer88]

Not a gambling man, but just noticed that the line moved again to -2.5 for the Broncos.

 

[kidhawk]

Vegas is going to CLEAN UP on this Super Bowl

 

[Sports Hernia]

Vegas is going to CLEAN UP on this Super Bowl

Yep, when Seattle wins they will!

 

[HawkWow]

Not if they get middled, they won't. The line opened at Seattle -2 (in some places), now it's Denver -2.5. That creates a dangerous situation for Vegas and why they need to get it as close to right as possible with the opening line. Getting middled is the only way Vegas stands to lose big money. I noticed they made the adjustment almost immediately, but someone out there bet Denver +2 and now has a chance to play for the middle, allowing them to win both sides while only risking the juice. Very smart play, even with this small spread difference.

 

[kidhawk]

Not if they get middled, they won't. The line opened at Seattle -2 (in some places), now it's Denver -2.5. That creates a dangerous situation for Vegas and why they need to get it as close to right as possible with the opening line. Getting middled is the only way Vegas stands to lose big money. I noticed they made the adjustment almost immediately, but someone out there bet Denver +2 and now has a chance to play for the middle, allowing them to win both sides while only risking the juice. Very smart play, even with this small spread difference.

From all accounts so far, the balance of betting is still heavily on the Broncos...since the Seahawks are going to win, they won't have to pay any of that out. That means they win big. Of course things could even out over the next 12 days, but as of right now, a Seahawks victory is a huge W for LV

 

[HawkWow]

Vegas is going to CLEAN UP on this Super Bowl

Yep, when Seattle wins they will!

They will make sure the same amount of money comes in on both teams. That is why the line fluctuation. They opened at Seattle -2 and someone came in and bet big on Denver. that moved the line to attract bettors to Seattle so they can balance the books. They will take the juice off the top and don't care who wins, Denver or Seattle. The juice (Vig) will be the exact same amount regardless of the winner. As long as they are not middled...as mentioned above.

 

[HawkWow]

Not if they get middled, they won't. The line opened at Seattle -2 (in some places), now it's Denver -2.5. That creates a dangerous situation for Vegas and why they need to get it as close to right as possible with the opening line. Getting middled is the only way Vegas stands to lose big money. I noticed they made the adjustment almost immediately, but someone out there bet Denver +2 and now has a chance to play for the middle, allowing them to win both sides while only risking the juice. Very smart play, even with this small spread difference.

From all accounts so far, the balance of betting is still heavily on the Broncos...since the Seahawks are going to win, they won't have to pay any of that out. That means they win big. Of course things could even out over the next 12 days, but as of right now, a Seahawks victory is a huge W for LV

That's not how it works. The money is likely even on both sides as I type. That's why the line has stabilized. When more money comes in on either side, the line will adjust again until the books are again balanced. Trust me on this.

 

[MidwestHawker]

Hopefully it's done moving in Denver's direction. Nice thing is that as long as it's less than a 3 point spread it's not far off from a PK in terms of win probability; games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 only get taken down (the game outright, spread regardless) by the favorites 51% of the time historically. A 3 point spread is the big jump where it becomes more of a 60/40 proposition.

 

[VivaEfrenHerrera]

OK HW, since you seem to know a good bit about this gambling business, I'll ask. I understand the idea that they want the betting to be equal on both sides -- it only makes sense. But I had heard on some national radio on Wednesday, I think, that 75 percent of the money was coming in on the Patriots and nearly that much on the Whiners. And neither of those lines moved at all. I guess that suggests that the early money was not the "smart money" or something.

Anyway, 75 percent is quite a ways off of an even split, so if that's really where it stayed, the books were in theory taking a hell of a gamble. Do you think those reports about the 75 percent were wrong or maybe that number corrected itself later in the week when the "sharps" put down bigger bets? Or is there another explanation I'm missing?

 

[HawkWow]

OK HW, since you seem to know a good bit about this gambling business, I'll ask. I understand the idea that they want the betting to be equal on both sides -- it only makes sense. But I had heard on some national radio on Wednesday, I think, that 75 percent of the money was coming in on the Patriots and nearly that much on the Whiners. And neither of those lines moved at all. I guess that suggests that the early money was not the "smart money" or something.

Anyway, 75 percent is quite a ways off of an even split, so if that's really where it stayed, the books were in theory taking a hell of a gamble. Do you think those reports about the 75 percent were wrong or maybe that number corrected itself later in the week when the "sharps" put down bigger bets? Or is there another explanation I'm missing?

I am unsure where such reports originate...and that is problematic in itself. And sometimes, things get misunderstood. IE there's 100 bettors. 75 people are betting Denver (let's say) and 25 bet Seattle. That would only move the line if that 75 people bet more money than the 25 betting on Seattle. If the 75 people bet 1 mil on Denver and the 25 people bet 1 mil on Seattle, the line would not budge even though 3 times more people bet Denver than Seattle. I hope I am not confusing anyone. I have Mrs Wow in my ear wanting to go to the beach (for the second time today). LOL.

 

[HawkWow]

Hopefully it's done moving in Denver's direction. Nice thing is that as long as it's less than a 3 point spread it's not far off from a PK in terms of win probability; games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 only get taken down (the game outright, spread regardless) by the favorites 51% of the time historically. A 3 point spread is the big jump where it becomes more of a 60/40 proposition.

The best rule to use for post season games is to disregard the spread altogether. Just bet the team you believe will win the game. If correct, they will cover many more times than not.

 

[jkitsune]

Hopefully it's done moving in Denver's direction. Nice thing is that as long as it's less than a 3 point spread it's not far off from a PK in terms of win probability; games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 only get taken down (the game outright, spread regardless) by the favorites 51% of the time historically. A 3 point spread is the big jump where it becomes more of a 60/40 proposition.

The best rule to use for post season games is to disregard the spread altogether. Just bet the team you believe will win the game. If correct, they will cover many more times than not.

I'll ask a question too, because I'm nearly naive to the world of gambling but always intensely curious... can you explain what you mean by 'vig' and middling? You kind of alluded to someone betting both sides of a fluctuating line, but that seems to me like the person would just break even between the two bets. Can you clarify that for me?

 

[VivaEfrenHerrera]

Hopefully it's done moving in Denver's direction. Nice thing is that as long as it's less than a 3 point spread it's not far off from a PK in terms of win probability; games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 only get taken down (the game outright, spread regardless) by the favorites 51% of the time historically. A 3 point spread is the big jump where it becomes more of a 60/40 proposition.

The best rule to use for post season games is to disregard the spread altogether. Just bet the team you believe will win the game. If correct, they will cover many more times than not.

I'll ask a question too, because I'm nearly naive to the world of gambling but always intensely curious... can you explain what you mean by 'vig' and middling? You kind of alluded to someone betting both sides of a fluctuating line, but that seems to me like the person would just break even between the two bets. Can you clarify that for me?

Since he's off to the beach, I can answer those. The 'vig' is kind of a convenience fee for placing the bet. Let's say Vegas is offering a bet on a fair coin toss -- pure 50-50 proposition. They'd make it so you have to bet 11 dollars to win 10 no matter which side you chose. That way, if they get equal bets on both sides, they'd collect the extra buck on every bet and there'd be no way they lose money. In theory, the point spread reduces every game to a 50-50 shot, and this is exactly what they aim for.

Getting middled happens when the line moves. Let's say the line starts at 6 and then moves to 8. If one team wins by exactly 7 points (the middle), then a gambler could have made money by betting on BOTH teams at different points of the line. If I bet a $100 on Team A minus 6, and $100 on Team B plus 8, I collect both bets if A wins by exactly 7. And in any other result, I win one and lose the other for a wash. It's a chance to win big with no risk, something that Vegas clearly HATES.

 

[VivaEfrenHerrera]

I am unsure where such reports originate...and that is problematic in itself. And sometimes, things get misunderstood. IE there's 100 bettors. 75 people are betting Denver (let's say) and 25 bet Seattle. That would only move the line if that 75 people bet more money than the 25 betting on Seattle. If the 75 people bet 1 mil on Denver and the 25 people bet 1 mil on Seattle, the line would not budge even though 3 times more people bet Denver than Seattle. I hope I am not confusing anyone. I have Mrs Wow in my ear wanting to go to the beach (for the second time today). LOL.

Good point. You'd think they'd go to great pains to keep that kind of thing secret. The radio guy I heard (late night national nobody, can't remember who it was) was pretty clear that it was 75 percent of the money, though, not number of wagers. I guess that kind of stuff leaks out through the rumor mill, which probably has its own agendas.

 

[HawkWow]

Hopefully it's done moving in Denver's direction. Nice thing is that as long as it's less than a 3 point spread it's not far off from a PK in terms of win probability; games with spreads between 1 and 2.5 only get taken down (the game outright, spread regardless) by the favorites 51% of the time historically. A 3 point spread is the big jump where it becomes more of a 60/40 proposition.

The best rule to use for post season games is to disregard the spread altogether. Just bet the team you believe will win the game. If correct, they will cover many more times than not.

I'll ask a question too, because I'm nearly naive to the world of gambling but always intensely curious... can you explain what you mean by 'vig' and middling? You kind of alluded to someone betting both sides of a fluctuating line, but that seems to me like the person would just break even between the two bets. Can you clarify that for me?

Efren gave an awesome answer to your question. Let me add just 2 words bro> Don't gamble. I see too many people, Hawk fans in particular, now getting excited about dabbling in this disease. You are one of the smarter posters on this board and may very well keep everything "fun"...and you may not, too. I ran book for years and can break your heart with too many stories. Dabbling in gambling is no different (for many) than dabbling in heroin or crack.

I don't gamble and will never gamble again. Worst addiction one could ever imagine. Sorry for the buzzkill (all) but I sometimes get started, like I have here, then need to remind myself of the above. The Mrs hates me even talking or writing about the subject. I guess things got a little out of control. ; )

 

[HawkWow]

I am unsure where such reports originate...and that is problematic in itself. And sometimes, things get misunderstood. IE there's 100 bettors. 75 people are betting Denver (let's say) and 25 bet Seattle. That would only move the line if that 75 people bet more money than the 25 betting on Seattle. If the 75 people bet 1 mil on Denver and the 25 people bet 1 mil on Seattle, the line would not budge even though 3 times more people bet Denver than Seattle. I hope I am not confusing anyone. I have Mrs Wow in my ear wanting to go to the beach (for the second time today). LOL.

Good point. You'd think they'd go to great pains to keep that kind of thing secret. The radio guy I heard (late night national nobody, can't remember who it was) was pretty clear that it was 75 percent of the money, though, not number of wagers. I guess that kind of stuff leaks out through the rumor mill, which probably has its own agendas.

You know what I missed bro? The obvious. Of course 75% of the money came in on Denver...and that's what swung the favorite from Seattle to Denver. I was thinking you were saying 75% of the money is still coming in on Denver. The DJ was likely right and it took LV a bit to get this line dialed in. Actually, I think we will see even more movement and won't be surprised if / when it becomes a pick 'em.

IMO, the old school bettors still bet defense. And they are the ones that will settle this line. Again, pure speculation on my behalf but I'd be surprised if it stays Den -2.5...so if people want to bet Seattle, no time like the present. But don't bet (cuz it makes me feel better to say that). ; )

 

[Reaneypark]

It was interesting that Cousin Sal and Bill Simmons who intensly follow football spreads didn't understand why Denver should be favored. A classic, "The Masses are Asses," situation.

 

[HawkWow]

It was interesting that Cousin Sal and Bill Simmons who intensly follow football spreads didn't understand why Denver should be favored. A classic, "The Masses are Asses," situation.

Concur. It always amazes when people follow the general public. Last I looked, the general public is pretty damn stupid. With that, you're almost certain to be better off in the role of contrarian.

I've not yet formulated a solid opinion on the outcome of this SB. Need to let my emotions subside a bit first (then do some math). But I am confident the Beast will feast on his way to MVP honors. Please. Pretty please.

 

[BocciHawk]

I've heard many different things. I was under the impression that Denver was favored right from the start, by one to two points. The line only moved a little bit, to where Denver is now favored by two to two and a half.

 

[HawkWow]

My understanding is they initially made Seattle the favorite and "in less than 30 minutes", they had taken so much action on Denver that they were forced to move the line to Denver -2...still getting "61% of the action on Denver", they moved it to -2.5 before taking equal action on both teams. But the money is small right now. A week from now it will go through the roof.

But again, disregard the points. Just bet the winner. Get paid.