Third and Goal Sports Seattle Seahawks Season Preview

[ThirdandGoal]

Hey Seahawks fans! I wanted to get some feedback on our Seahawks season preview and thought of no better place than to bring it to you guys here. Would love some feedback about if we missed strengths of the team, if we are blinded to some of the weaknesses, etc. We have the Seahawks narrowly winning the NFC West over the 49ers.

2012 Record: 11-5, 2nd NFC West

Offseason Additions: Percy Harvin, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Antoine Winfield

Draft Additions: Christine Michael, Jordan Hill, Jesse Williams

Offseason Losses: Matt Flynn, Alan Branch, Jason Jones, Leroy Hill, Leon Washington, Percy Harvin (injury)

Starting Offense: QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch, FB Michael Robinson, WR Golden Tate, WR Sidney Rice, TE Zach Miller, LT Russell Okung, LG Paul Mcquistan, C Max Unger, RG JR Sweezy , RT Breno Giacomini

Starting Defense: DE Red Bryant, DT Tony McDaniel, DT Brandon Mebane, DE Cliff Avril, LB KJ Wright, MLB Bobby Wagner, OLB Malcolm Smith, CB Brandon Browner, CB Richard Sherman, S Kam Chancellor, S Earl Thomas

K: Steven Hauschka

P: Jon Ryan

Offense: The Seahawks offense had one of the best running games in the league in 2012. The Seahawks ranked third, behind only Minnesota and Washington, in rushing yards per game with 161.2 yards per game. Marshawn Lynch carried the team on his back while rushing for 1,590 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging a whopping five yards per carry. They pounded the rock with Lynch 315 times in 2012, and while I don’t expect that to drop drastically, the Seahawks used a second round pick on talented running back Christine Michael to take some of the pressure off of Lynch and keep him fresh. The Seahawks also have second year back Robert Turbin who averaged a healthy 4.4 yards per carry last season. Lynch, Michael, and Turbin should be a dynamic 1-2-3 punch in 2013 and I expect the Seahawks to once again rank in the top 5 in rushing yards per game. The fact that Wilson can run the ball doesn’t hurt their rushing numbers either.

Russell Wilson’s rookie year can be almost divided as two different seasons. His quarterback rating in 2012 was an even 100.00 which was much higher than higher drafted rookies Andrew Luck (76.5) and Ryan Tannehill (76.1). Wilson started out slow while learning how to be a QB in the NFL, but he was spectacular in his last eight games. In those games Wilson threw 16 touchdowns, two interceptions, completed over 67% of his passes, and the Seahawks went 7-1. In order to make it even easier for Wilson in his second full season the Seahawks went out and acquired Percy Harvin, one of the most dynamic wide receivers in the game. With Rice and Tate on the outside, and now Harvin playing the slot, Wilson has an impressive group of receivers to work with and should have another solid season. Even with the addition of Harvin, I still expect the Seahawks to be a run first team, especially when protecting leads, but Wilson should top the 393 pass attempts he had in 2012 rather easily.

The Seahawks had the 9th highest scoring offense in the NFL in 2012. With Wilson entering his second year, it’s not unreasonable to say he should be even better in 2013. His wide receiving core was improved with the addition of Percy Harvin, and the addition of Christine Michael means giving Lynch a break won’t mean a drop in talent in the backfield. It is not out of the question that the Seahawks could take a jump into the top 5 in scoring in 2013.

Update: Percy Harvin was lost, possibly for the season, before he ever suited up for the Seahawks. With his hip injury requiring surgery the Seahawks will go into the season with the same offense as they had last year, except Russell Wilson is one year wiser. I still expect the Seahawks to have near a top ten offense because they were going to be a run first team. People over reacting and writing this team off due to the Harvin injury will be disappointed.

Defense: In 2012 the Seahawks had the best scoring defense by a wide margin, allowing only 15.3 points per game (the 49ers were second while allowing 17.1 per game). They have the most talented secondary in the league, and that led to allowing just over 200 yards through the air per game. So what did they do to improve the defense during the offseason? The Seahawks signed Antoine Winfield who was quietly one of the best corners in the league last season according to Pro Football Focus. With Winfield manning the slot, the best secondary in the league got even better.

Chris Clemons tore his ACL in the playoffs, and while Bruce Irvin was expected to replace him, he is suspended for the first four games. The Seahawks went out and signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett and now shouldn’t miss a beat. Cliff Avril has 29 sacks over the last three seasons, and should get his share of coverage sacks with the Seahawks. Michael Bennett quietly had 9 sacks last season for the Buccaneers and should be a force for the Seahawks.

The question in 2013 is if the defense can not only maintain their impressive play from 2012, but get better, and I think they can. With the addition of Winfield, the best secondary in the league actually improved. Richard Sherman, arguably the premier corner in the league, is only entering his third season in the league and can get better. Earl Thomas is only entering his fourth season and is already known as one of the best safeties in the league. The defense will miss Clemons and Irvin for the beginning of the season, but Avril and Bennett should anchor the defensive line until they return. Once they return, the Seahawks will have one of the best rotations of pass rushers in the NFL, and I expect the Seahawks to once again sport a top 5 defense.

2013 Outlook: The Seahawks have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Russell Wilson, one of the best running games in the league, a dynamic receiving corps, and had the best scoring defense in 2012. The sky is the limit for the Seahawks in 2013, but a brutal schedule may keep them from getting home field advantage in the playoffs even though I expect them to win the division. The Seahawks have four road games which start at 1 PM Eastern Time, or 10 AM Pacific Time, and the Seahawks have historically not played as well in those games. We know the Seahawks can win at home, but can they win a road playoff game or two, if needed, in 2013? Only time will tell, but I am done doubting Russell Wilson.

2013 Projection: 11-5, 1st NFC West

 

[AF_Hawk]

Percy will be back before the season is over so the offense will definitely see a boost once he gets back (just having him on the field for the defense to worry about will help).

 

[coach78]

The start time for those 4 road games is 1:00 ET, 10:00 PT.

 

[sutz]

Not a bad write up, but.....

1. Why do we only get to play with 10 on offense? (no TE listed)

2. Edting note:

The fact that Wilson can run the ball doesn’t help their rushing numbers either.

Should probably say:

The fact that Wilson can run the ball doesn’t hurt their rushing numbers either.

 

[Erebus]

Starting Offense: QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch, FB Michael Robinson, WR Golden Tate, WR Sydney Rice, LT Russell Okung, LG Paul Mcquistan, C Max Unger, RG JR Sweezy , RT Breno Giacomini

Its Sidney, not Sydney.

The fact that Wilson can run the ball doesn’t help their rushing numbers either.

I don't get this statement.

The Seahawks have four road games which start at 10AM Eastern Time, or 7AM Pacific Time, and the Seahawks have historically not played as well in those games.

Those are 1 PM Eastern Time games. They start at 10 AM Pacific Time. And its actually 5 games.

 

[ThirdandGoal]

Thanks for the notes everyone! Definitely need to do a little editing.

 

[Ad Hawk]

You mention Christine Michael as a 1-2 punch with Beast Mode; I would say it's a 1-2-3 combination with Lynch, Robert Turbin, and Michael.

 

[ThirdandGoal]

Do you think Turbin is going to be a factor this year? Everything I have read has pointed to the fact that Carroll and the Seahawks loves Michael. Turbin had 80 carries as the backup last year. If Michael ends up as the #2 there, which I think he will, Turbin might be relegated to the 23 carries Leon Washington has as the 3rd RB last year.

 

[Hawks46]

I do like the attention given to Michael, but thing is, Turbin is still the better back. He averaged either 4.4 or 4.6 ypc last year, is very good out of the backfield, and is every bit as fast as Michael is (both ran a 4.4 forty). Michael is the more explosive runner, and might be harder to bring down, but right now, from what our RB coach has said, Turbin is farther ahead in the offense and in pass protection.

We could also see more offensive snaps in 2013, which would probably equate to more rushing attempts. If this team doesn't improve on offense, and merely picks up where it left off, we're going to be running the ball a lot to close out games. I could see Lynch's carries get down to the 280ish area while Turbin's and Michael's could both be near 100.

Overall a pretty good write up. I don't see anything you really missed out on.

 

[Ad Hawk]

Yeah, I agree with Hawks46. I think we're going to see more of a combination of RBs in the backfield this year. They will keep the legs fresh ("the legs feed the wolf, boys!"), and provide change of pace. All three RBs use the zone blocking scheme to their advantage, and all will get carries this year.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

It's 5 10AM games, not 4.

My Editor skills lit up reading this:

The question in 2013 is if the defense can not only maintain their impressive play from 2012, but get better, and I think they can. With the addition of Winfield, the best secondary in the league got even better. Richard Sherman, arguably the best corner in the league, is only entering his third season in the league and can get better. Earl Thomas is only entering his fourth season and is already known as one of the best safeties in the league.

This could use a rewrite - too many betters and leagues in close proximity. Try this:

"The question in 2013 is if the defense can outshine their impressive play from 2012 and I think they can. With the addition of Winfield, the best secondary in the league just got even better. Richard Sherman, arguably the NFL's premier conerback, is only entering his third season and should continue to improve. 4th year veteran Earl Thomas is already known as one of the leagues top safeties."

Rolls of the tongue better see?

 

[ThirdandGoal]

You guys convinced me. I try to follow as many beat writers and such on twitter, but it's tough to keep up with all 32 teams. That's why I try to post my season previews to team forums because I can get great feedback.

 

[Ad Hawk]

You guys convinced me. I try to follow as many beat writers and such on twitter, but it's tough to keep up with all 32 teams. That's why I try to post my season previews to team forums because I can get great feedback.

Hawk fans are quite knowledgeable about the sport overall. They would call you out very quickly for misinformation. You're credibility has probably risen here. The humility in this post is refreshing, too.

 

[ThirdandGoal]

Thanks Salish!

 

[Throwdown]

Michael might be getting a ton of love, and probably deservedly so, but with how much this team loves to pound the rock, all three are going to get their share of snaps.

 

[drdiags]

I liked the write-up with the edits. I was wondering what impact if any Seattle's special teams changes might have toward their projected record? Do you see the loss of Leon Washington and Harvin being replaced or does this weaken the team to a large extent? I haven't seen much discussion on PFF stats regarding special teams so not sure how much a drop-off to expect and how much ST play affected game outcome.

I can only count a few huge returns that helped lead to wins (Patriots punt return by Washington and maybe a few other games). Any insights in this area?

 

[SoulfishHawk]

Well, with the new stupid kick off rules, it really takes that part of the game out of it most the time. But our kick coverage is damn good, so that should be a big plus. Having the other team starting out inside the 15, against this defense?? Nice.

 

[ThirdandGoal]

The Seahawks had Leon Washington which was a nice luxury to have for years, and were expecting to have Harvin, but as mentioned above, kick returns are being phased out of the game and aren't as important as they were before. Teams that can't run the ball are more dependent on long kick returns because they can struggle to get drives going and the field position will swing in the other teams favor, but that's not a problem for SEA. There aren't too many teams out there that have truly dynamic kick return advantages anymore.

 

[drdiags]

KR are not as important but PR still can be. Washington was pretty good in that role. But even then, I cannot count a large number of field changing plays he made to warrant a lot of concern about it. Just throwing the idea out there to see whether it was worth bringing up in a preview look at the team going into the 2013 season.

 

[hawker84]

I do like the attention given to Michael, but thing is, Turbin is still the better back. He averaged either 4.4 or 4.6 ypc last year, is very good out of the backfield, and is every bit as fast as Michael is (both ran a 4.4 forty). Michael is the more explosive runner, and might be harder to bring down, but right now, from what our RB coach has said, Turbin is farther ahead in the offense and in pass protection.

We could also see more offensive snaps in 2013, which would probably equate to more rushing attempts. If this team doesn't improve on offense, and merely picks up where it left off, we're going to be running the ball a lot to close out games. I could see Lynch's carries get down to the 280ish area while Turbin's and Michael's could both be near 100.

Overall a pretty good write up. I don't see anything you really missed out on.

I think you might see Lynch's carries reduced this year, and both turbin and michael will get plenty of carries, it was clear that Lynch either was wore down, or injured in that ATL game. I see the coaching staff tapering off a bit on his carries saving him for the latter part of the season and playoffs. Just speculation though on my part.