kearly
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As we all know, draft season is lying season. For example, did Pete Carroll publicly gush about Sam Bradford or Johnny Manziel because he really liked them, or because he wanted them to be drafted before Seattle's pick- which would have potentially pushed a different player that Seattle coveted down the board?
I think this kind of fake love happens all the time. And I would even guess that a substantial percentage of team visits with players are red herrings. They don't like the player or they feel that player doesn't fit their system, but they want to throw other teams off the scent or better yet, get those undesired players over-drafted by someone else.
I have a theory. I'll be up front and say that this theory is not air-tight, but I think there might be something to it. What if there was a relationship between the number of red herrings or the amount of energy expended on red herrings, as it relates to Seattle's first round pick?
In 2011, Seattle had the #25 pick and was believed to be looking at offensive or defensive line. The rumors we heard linked Seattle to players like Nate Solder or Danny Watkins. The Watkins rumors were especially strong, IIRC. The rumors for OL dominated the Seahawks rumor mill that year, and as it turned out, Seattle did draft an OL. One that wasn't rumored about pretty much at all.
In 2012, Seattle had the #12 pick and were thought to be looking for a pass rusher, but had enough needs that they could be flexible with that pick. Seattle met with just about every pass rusher under the sun, and the rumors of their interest in Alabama pass rusher Courtney Upshaw were popping up everywhere. This was curious since Upshaw was not very athletic and didn't seem to fit the Seahawk mold at all, in fact he seemed like a 3-4 OLB type. Ultimately, Seattle did draft a pass rusher in the 1st round by making a surprise pick for Bruce Irvin.
The point is, in both those years if you wanted to know which position Seattle was drafting in round one, all you had to do was look at which area had the most bullshitting going on.
So this year, with Seattle meeting with or being rumored to have interest in tons of 1st/2nd round pass rushers, including a lot of guys that don't seem to fit the Seahawk mold, it makes me think that Seattle is leaning towards DL in round one. Especially since some of the DL they've met with, such as Shaq Lawson, don't seem to fit the PCJS model at all (fittingly, Lawson has drawn comparisons to Courtney Upshaw).
On the flipside, Seattle has only met with one offensive lineman who's considered a first rounder (Germain Ifedi). And counting Ifedi as a 1st rounder is a bit generous, as some mocks have him slipping well into round 2. There does not appear to be any kind of campaign of misinformation at OL in the first round for Seattle.
Of all the DL to be linked to Seattle, many of them don't seem to fit Seattle's previously established profiles, which means that either Seattle changed the way they do business in the draft, or it means they are using misdirection to cover their tracks for the DL they really want.
So based on this, I am pretty sure that Seattle wants to go DL in round one, and then probably go OL in round 2.
(The one caveat I'd put on this theory is that I think Seattle's silence with regards to Jason Spriggs seems extremely suspicious to me. He screams Seahawks more than any offensive lineman in this entire draft, and yet Seattle hasn't shown any interest in him yet. That's very suspicious to me.)
Edit: to be clear, I don't think this in any way guarantees that Seattle is hell bent on going DL in round one, or even that their top three options are all DL players. I think it would be more accurate to say that their #1 overall target is probably a DL, and the reason that they seem to be muddying the waters so much at DL is likely in an attempt to get this targeted player.
I think this kind of fake love happens all the time. And I would even guess that a substantial percentage of team visits with players are red herrings. They don't like the player or they feel that player doesn't fit their system, but they want to throw other teams off the scent or better yet, get those undesired players over-drafted by someone else.
I have a theory. I'll be up front and say that this theory is not air-tight, but I think there might be something to it. What if there was a relationship between the number of red herrings or the amount of energy expended on red herrings, as it relates to Seattle's first round pick?
In 2011, Seattle had the #25 pick and was believed to be looking at offensive or defensive line. The rumors we heard linked Seattle to players like Nate Solder or Danny Watkins. The Watkins rumors were especially strong, IIRC. The rumors for OL dominated the Seahawks rumor mill that year, and as it turned out, Seattle did draft an OL. One that wasn't rumored about pretty much at all.
In 2012, Seattle had the #12 pick and were thought to be looking for a pass rusher, but had enough needs that they could be flexible with that pick. Seattle met with just about every pass rusher under the sun, and the rumors of their interest in Alabama pass rusher Courtney Upshaw were popping up everywhere. This was curious since Upshaw was not very athletic and didn't seem to fit the Seahawk mold at all, in fact he seemed like a 3-4 OLB type. Ultimately, Seattle did draft a pass rusher in the 1st round by making a surprise pick for Bruce Irvin.
The point is, in both those years if you wanted to know which position Seattle was drafting in round one, all you had to do was look at which area had the most bullshitting going on.
So this year, with Seattle meeting with or being rumored to have interest in tons of 1st/2nd round pass rushers, including a lot of guys that don't seem to fit the Seahawk mold, it makes me think that Seattle is leaning towards DL in round one. Especially since some of the DL they've met with, such as Shaq Lawson, don't seem to fit the PCJS model at all (fittingly, Lawson has drawn comparisons to Courtney Upshaw).
On the flipside, Seattle has only met with one offensive lineman who's considered a first rounder (Germain Ifedi). And counting Ifedi as a 1st rounder is a bit generous, as some mocks have him slipping well into round 2. There does not appear to be any kind of campaign of misinformation at OL in the first round for Seattle.
Of all the DL to be linked to Seattle, many of them don't seem to fit Seattle's previously established profiles, which means that either Seattle changed the way they do business in the draft, or it means they are using misdirection to cover their tracks for the DL they really want.
So based on this, I am pretty sure that Seattle wants to go DL in round one, and then probably go OL in round 2.
(The one caveat I'd put on this theory is that I think Seattle's silence with regards to Jason Spriggs seems extremely suspicious to me. He screams Seahawks more than any offensive lineman in this entire draft, and yet Seattle hasn't shown any interest in him yet. That's very suspicious to me.)
Edit: to be clear, I don't think this in any way guarantees that Seattle is hell bent on going DL in round one, or even that their top three options are all DL players. I think it would be more accurate to say that their #1 overall target is probably a DL, and the reason that they seem to be muddying the waters so much at DL is likely in an attempt to get this targeted player.
(J/K) 
