The offensive line, who gets paid?

[kearly]

Our front office is always looking ahead financially with what they like to describe as their three year plan or three year model. A lot of the players on our team are already penciled in for a 2nd or 3rd contract, while others are on the outside looking in and will very likely be replaced in the draft or FA.

With that in mind, with all the controversy that is Seattle's offensive line, I figured it would be a good topic to think about the specific players on our line and how they might fit into the long term plans of the Seahawks. Below I've listed each Seahawks starter, their free agent year, and their oldest age that calendar year. There's a lot of things to factor beyond age, but we know how this FO loves to make decisions on players when they reach their 30th birthday.

I also included Alvin Bailey, who's basically been our equivalent of the "sixth man" of our OL, and probably has some sort of future as a starter in this league for some team.

Russell Okung. Free agent in 2016. Turns 29 that year.
James Carpenter. Free agent in 2015. Turns 26 that year.
Max Unger. Free agent in 2017. Turns 31 that year.
JR Sweezy. Free agent in 2016. Turns 27 that year.
Justin Britt. Free agent in 2018. Turns 27 that year.

Alvin Bailey. Unrestricted free agent in 2017 (RFA in 2016). Turns 26 in 2017.

...

My thinking:

I think Okung is probably not in the current 3 year model for Seattle. I kind of see him as the Sidney Rice of our OL, a good player that is expensive and difficult to depend on. Seattle held on to Rice longer than I thought they would before finally opting out of his contract.

I think Okung probably plays out his deal, but unless he signs for a bargain price, I can't see him coming back on a 2nd contract. Age will probably factor too, Okung's age in 2016 is the same as Giacomini's age this year, and Seattle barely lifted a finger to keep Giacomini despite the fact that he had his best season in 2013.

Carp could be back, if he's really cheap. It seems like OL has been a huge priority in the draft for Seattle every year since Cable got here, with the exception of 2012. Which ironically was the draft where Cable did his best work, drafting JR Sweezy. I think it will continue to be a priority and if there is a Joel Bitonio type opportunity for Seattle in rounds 1-2 I think they will consider it strongly.

The presence of Bailey could make Carp somewhat expendable.

It's pretty rare to see a center play great football well into his 30s. Unger has been dinged a lot, and as we saw last year, when he loses maybe 20% of his effectiveness from playing hurt, he looks like crap. He's a very good player, but he's a bit fringe at the same time. That makes me think he could turn into a pile of crap very quickly once signs of age start to show up, so I think he's probably on his final contract in Seattle. At most, he might get a 1-2 year extension, but that seems unlikely to me given Seattle's history with re-signing older players.

There's also something else to consider, Seattle's backup centers have actually looked surprisingly decent. LMJ has been pretty good as a run blocker and a non-disaster in pass pro, Schilling has been mostly competent in relief this year and even Seattle's 3rd string center Patrick Lewis handled himself fairly well last week. I'm not convinced that there is a huge dropoff from Unger to his backups, and given Unger's substantial salary, that could make him a target for salary relief if money becomes very tight in the next few seasons.

If Sweezy keeps things up, he is a must re-sign. Assuming of course, that Tom Cable is still here in 2016.

Justin Britt has looked pretty good all things considered. It's still insanely early, but I would say that he's currently well on his way to earning a second contract of some kind. Unless he ends up being TOO good and prices his way out, but I don't expect that to happen.

Whether Bailey gets another deal or not will depend on how much Seattle needs him to start. I don't think they'd give him a second deal as a jumbo package guy. Some other smart team will sign Bailey more money than that to start for them.

 

[2_0_6]

Keep the Center & right side of the O-line, and find replacements for Okung & Carp.

On a side note, I was watching the Redskins/Vikings game last night on rewind and damn Trent Williams is a stud. Wished we could have landed him instead of Mr. Glass

 

[tmobilchawker79]

I think we need to make sure that we're considering the pass protections that Unger calls in his valuation. I saw multiple times in the last couple weeks, guys coming scott free through the line because of a blown protection or call. Not saying it was all on the center, but that's the stuff you'll get with backup centers. I feel Unger's worth is high from an experience standpoint, and football smarts, keeping our franchise QB from getting murdered.

 

[iigakusei]

Kearly could you please describe why you think Britt has looked good. I am no OL expert, but to my untrained eye he has looked pretty bad - especially in Pass pro.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

I think Okung is gone for sure and agree with you that if Carp comes back, it'll be at Schneider's price. Considering he was badly out of shape until this, his contract year, I'm guessing they move on. I can see Bailey re-signed if they think he can man the LG spot.

Don't believe Unger will be back and am absolutely convinced Sweezy will.

Britt had a brutal game this last week though while never great he's not been horrible most this year, decent praise for a rookie playing tackle in the NFL. I'm sure he'll be a wait and see how he develops.



So here's my question for you Kip, if as most of us think will be the case and Okung is not re-signed, what type of player do they replace him with and how do they go about it (FA or only draft in your opinion)? I don't expect our team will be drafting top 10 for a while (hope not anyway!). Obviously a good LT can be found later in round 1 or early round 2 (Michael Roos) but the way the draft has played out recently, the runs on offensive tackles have been early and often making finding a gem later more difficult. Because many have had to be switched to guard (e.g. Greg Robinson and Jake Matthews), maybe that won't be the case in a year or two?
However it plays out, I think finding a franchise LT will be John, Pete and Cable's biggest challenge since finding a true franchis QB.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Sweezy definitely. He is becoming a borderline All-Pro at RG.

Britt, way too early to rule on.

Unger.. depends how healthy he can be between now and then, he's been banged up a lot these last few years. Sucks Lem went down because I honestly thought the line was a bit better last year with him at center.

Okung.. I think we part ways with. He can't stay healthy and some team will overpay for him in a big way.

Carp. Never expected us to keep him.

Basically - to no ones surprise - we need to address OL in a big way in the offseason, whether thats via draft or FA (likely draft).

 

[iigakusei]

Given the difference between Wilson and a pure pocket QB do you think the need for a stud LT is less?

 

[Jville]

Justin Britt solidifies the right side. And although there may be some concern about him hitting that rookie wall, his best games are yet to come. He will get better as he continues to unlearn bad habits.

JR Sweezy has become rather complete and is still improving. I think Sweezy is "the" legitimate candidate for a contract extension.

I recognize the trusted play calling and leadership of Max Unger. However, I do anticipate that he will retire from the game upon completion of his current contract. I have been encouraged by the backups and anticipate they will attempt to resign Schilling and likely retain Patrick Lewis ..... as long as they continue to improve.

What is the market value of James Carpenter? I expect him to test the market. I suspect someone out there will take a flyer on Carpenter. Possibly someone committed to a pocket passer and in need of more power for an inside running game.

Russell Okung? Okung has already made a lot of money. I could see them stand pat on his final year. And I could also anticipate something in the spirit of a Zack Miller type adjustment. For me, the Okung contract is the biggest unknown.

Bailey is under contract for next year and needs to demonstrate the enthusiasm for staying in shape. They need him to be able to trust him to set a good example for coming training camp in great shape.

And then there are all the current (signed) understudies and prospects ..... including 3 offensive linemen currently carried on the practice squad.

I think it likely they will come out of this season headed in the right direction. I do look for them to add a couple of offensive tackles via draft or priority free agency. I look for them to continue to build from the outside .... in.

But, this speculation is a bit premature. After all, half of the 2014 regular season story has yet to be written.

 

[pehawk]

Kearly's just trolling us at this point. The timing of this post couldn't be better to coax emotional outbursts.

I think the Seahawks will shift to prioritizing interior lineman over all else. Injured or not, Okung wasn't going to be resigned here. As long as Pete and Wilson are here, they'll be content with at least one modest investment at either tackle, whomever the other tackle, and all other resources focused inside.

I do expect a nice FA signing at either center or guard this offseason, on top of resigning Sweezy. It also sounds like they probably already have a wink-wink deal done with Sweezy considering Pete wants to erect a statue in Sweezy's honor every press conference.

 

[IrishNW]

IMO resign Sweezy and Britt. Okung, Unger and Carp have injury problems every year and its getting old.

 

[Smoke]

Britt has looked like a rookie this year, which is expected. I have seen some amazing hateful plays out of him, and some colossal whiffs. I have loved some of his run blocking, and his pass pro at times has been alright. He's a rookie, and he needs some time to progress, but I think he is going to be really good. I believe him to be a part of the plan

Sweezy has been really average for me, but, he has also been playing with a rook to his right and a revolving door to his left, so its been really hard to say just how good or bad he is due to the inconsistency around him. I have noticed blitzing LBers running untouched by him, but again, is that on Britt or whatever Center we have playing that week. I know he is a part of the plan, the FO LOVES THE SWEEZE

Unger is hard to call. I feel like he has been injured and playing with some sort of ailment now for the past 20 some odd games. Was 2012 his ceiling? I have a feeling that we draft and develop a center, let Unger play his contract out. I never want to say having a player injured is a bad thing but, LMJ might be available for a new contract at a very cheap rate due to not being able to go ham this year. I really like LMJ I think that he might be in the plans more than Max Unger. The other thing about Unger is that He has been healthy all year twice his rookie year at RG and 2012 at C. Seeing as this is year has been the second consecutive year that we have been a mash unit on the Oline, I wonder if they dont start drafting replacements for the seemingly always injured Unger and Okung.

Carp is hard to figure, I love some plays of his where he puts fools on their back. I love his run blocking. Hate his pass pro. He gets straight up clowned on some blitzes, PUNKED. Like with Sweezy, its hard to put every stunting linemen or blitzing Linebacker that punks him untouched on him due to the Okung and Unger being hardly able to stand half the time, but there are times that you can tell he got ran right past.....Even with all that I think he gets a prove it deal.....

Okung........Im over Okung. His injuries have set this offense back a great deal, and it does ever year. This year at training camp (I know he was still recovering) He looked like he could barely stand. since he was drated its been one thing or another. Ankles, Pecs, Toes, Shoulders. He's running out of body parts to injure. I say we draft the LT of the future and groom him behind Okung. We know that whoever is behind him on the depth chart will get at least 7 to 8 game (or maybe more) a year of playing experience as long as Okung is on the roster. I fully expect us to draft a true Left Tackle in this next draft.


I have liked Alvin Bailey since last year. He is the man. I hope to see him in his natural position soon. He gets payed.


Also, there is one thing that I have observed that kinda annoys me now that we are in year 4 of the Pete Carroll era...

I feel as though we havent drafted many players on the Oline that play their natural position. I would love to see them draft a true Left Guard and a true Left Tackle. Not a guard who they can convert to a LT or a RT. I feel as though the FO has drafted alot of Right Tackles that they are converting to Guards. I understand that having versatility is what Cable loves, but at some point you gotta think that instead of drafting a DT and converting him to a G, or drafting a RT and turning him into A LG or a C that maybe they would draft a stud at LG, C, or LT....

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Not Okung, not Carpenter.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Seahawks kick Okung to the curb and then sign Michael Roos to stop-gap.

Carpenter is going to be cheap, could come back on a prove it deal.

Sweezy will get paid to a 5 year, 25 mil extension.

What is the LG market looking like for 2015?

 

[hawknation2014]

Unger and Okung play the two most critical positions on the offensive line. Both have been to Pro Bowls. And both have struggled with injuries.

The funny thing is Unger has actually missed more overall games than Okung and more this season . . . yet, he is not treated with the same utter disdain as Okung. I call this the "Walter Jones Effect."

At this point, no one if up for a new contract next year, except Carpenter, and no one is deserving of a contract extension based on the way the offensive line is currently playing.

Re-signing Carpenter is still a possibility; he has looked real good at times this season. No single player has improved more.

 

[Scottemojo]

Unger and Okung play the two most critical positions on the offensive line. Both have been to Pro Bowls. And both have struggled with injuries.

The funny thing is Unger has actually missed more overall games than Okung and more this season . . . yet, he is not treated with the same utter disdain as Okung. I call this the "Walter Jones Effect."

At this point, no one if up for a new contract next year, except Carpenter, and no one is deserving of a contract extension based on the way the offensive line is currently playing.

Re-signing Carpenter is still a possibility; he has looked real good at times this season. No single player has improved more.

Okung has earned some disdain with penalties alone. Walter jones or no, Okung is kind of in that good not great category.

I have bashed Unger a ton, he doesn't look good vs big NTs. But it's pretty clear he is a lot better at making line reads than his backups, and that Russ feels more secure with him in.

Sweezy is going to get pretty good coin. I think he is the heart of that line. They feed off his aggression.
Carpenter is auditioning right now. Til he got hurt, I liked what I was seeing from him.

My prediction for Britt is that he is going to develop just fine, but worrying about what he gets paid in two or 3 years is too much speculation. Lots can happen.

 

[dumbrabbit]

I think we should keep Okung. I really think he's our best lineman. He can be pretty good when healthy. The penalties are due to his aggressive style of play.

Get Carpenter the hell out of here. Tired of him he shows promise too little. I want consistency.

But I like the rest of the O-line.

 

[Hawksfanatik]

Agree with those posters who say to replace the left side of the O-line. Time for new blood at LG and LT, IMO.

Counting on injury prone players on the offensive line is not the way to go every year. Neither are playing at an all-pro level so I think they will be gone soon enough.

 

[kearly]

Kearly could you please describe why you think Britt has looked good. I am no OL expert, but to my untrained eye he has looked pretty bad - especially in Pass pro.

I think he's given up something like 3 sacks this season, which is only slightly below average. I'm sure in terms of pressures allowed he's pretty bad, but you don't expect rookies who were drafted 64th overall to look like studs immediately. He does some really nice things in the run game, and he's gotten better as the season has gone along. He has that same kind of vibe to him that Sweezy had in 2012.

So here's my question for you Kip, if as most of us think will be the case and Okung is not re-signed, what type of player do they replace him with and how do they go about it (FA or only draft in your opinion)?

I think they'll keep doing what they've been doing. They might end up replacing him with Bailey.

 

[Jville]

Speaking of continuing to do what they have been doing ........ I can't help but offer a further note on Sweezy and why they routinely talk about him.

I think they highlight the Sweezy story in expectation of attracting future candidates. Pete and Cable have continued their interest in supporting the development of conversion projects. Beyond the Sweezy example, who has clearly graduated, there is a more recent addition to the active roster in Garry Gilliam ... plus two more continuing to work on the practice squad. I think this speaks to a well established pattern.

 

[hawkfan68]

When all is said and done, I believe Sweezy, Bailey, and Britt will be the only ones re-signed. Unger isn't getting any younger and is brittle. Okung - see Unger. This offseason they need to find a quality center and start molding him to take over from Unger. Maybe Patrick Lewis turns out to be that guy, who knows.

 

[DavidSeven]

I wouldn't be surprised if they re-signed Okung, to be honest. Not necessarily because he's dependable or anything, but they just seem to talk about him as "one of their guys." The vibe I get is that they look at him the same way they look at guys like Baldwin, Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, etc. Someone whose overall make-up and personality they like (when combined w/ talent). The age thing definitely makes it an interesting question, though.

I still sort of feel like it's too early to say. I'm guessing he'll play out his current deal, and a lot depends on how he performs in 2015. I sort of think of Steve Hauschka. Many fans hoped he'd be replaced by a big-legged kicker until he suddenly became one himself and earned himself a fat contract. We'll see -- not sure what their models could even look like now with Harvin off the books by 2016. That has to open the door for some new opportunities and potentially the retention of some players who were previously written off.

Sweezy will probably get an extension offer this off-season. Wait and see on Okung and Unger since they're already making good money -- no rush. Not really sure about Carp yet. Way too early to say on Britt.