Superbowl Winning QBs

[Wizofwest]

Something I believe we all know, but not just any QB can win the Super Bowl. This is the last 10 years.

2020 Bucs - Tom Brady 25M against the cap, 12.2% of team cap
2019 Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes $4.5M against the cap (Rookie Contract), 2.4% of team cap
2018 Patriots - Tom Brady 21.5M against the cap, 10.9% of team cap
2017 Eagles - Carson Wentz 6M against the cap (Rookie Contract), 3.4% of team cap
2016 Patriots - Tom Brady 13.7M against the cap, 8.6% of team cap
2015 Broncos - Peyton Manning 17.5M against the cap, 11.7% of team cap
2014 Patriots - Tom Brady 14.8M against the cap, 10.6% of team cap
2013 Seahawks - Russell Wilson .7M against the cap (Rookie Contract), .5% of team cap
2012 Ravens - Joe Flacco 8M against the cap, 6.6% of team cap
2011 Giants - Eli Manning 14.1M against the cap, 11.7% of team cap

Of the last 10 Super Bowl wins, 8 are HOF or future HOF QBs
Tom Brady (4)
Patrick Mahomes (1)
Peyton Manning (1) - Carried by the defense that year
Russell Wilson (1) - Historic defense that year
Eli Manning (1) - I think he gets HOF

Percentage of team salary cap and outside of rookie contract
The average is 10.95% of the team cap for the winning Super Bowl QB

Russell Wilson 2021 32M Cap Number
How much would his salary be if he was the average cap value of a Super Bowl winning QB 21.6M

So what was the whole point of this.
1. You can't win the Super Bowl with just any QB. The majority of the time a team wins with a HOF QB.
2. Those Super Bowl winning QBs only ate up just under 11% of the team salary cap.

For Russ, here is his decision. Does he want legacy on the field or financial independence to do what he wants when his playing days are over, he can't have it both ways.

For the Seahawks, if Russell Wilson is not your QB, say goodbye to any realistic Super Bowl chances. Your best chance is to trade him for a top pick for the ability to choose a possible future HOF QB. We all know those QBs pan out at a pretty poor rate.

So what I'm hoping for here. Russ is our QB for as long as he wants to be here. He also has to restructure his contract so the team can get some offensive line help. Then the coaching staff has to get out of it's own way. Our roster was too strong to come away with just one chip from the LOB days.

I am pessimistic any of this happens. Too much pride and both parties are going to ruin a good thing....

 

[Forthewin]

After Dilfer won a Super Bowl...anyone can win a Super Bowl.

 

[John63]

After Dilfer won a Super Bowl...anyone can win a Super Bowl.

so because a whatever QB one it 1 time anyone can. Did you reap the OP, it kind of makes your point moot.

 

[John63]

Something I believe we all know, but not just any QB can win the Super Bowl. This is the last 10 years.

2020 Bucs - Tom Brady 25M against the cap, 12.2% of team cap
2019 Chiefs - Patrick Mahomes $4.5M against the cap (Rookie Contract), 2.4% of team cap
2018 Patriots - Tom Brady 21.5M against the cap, 10.9% of team cap
2017 Eagles - Carson Wentz 6M against the cap (Rookie Contract), 3.4% of team cap
2016 Patriots - Tom Brady 13.7M against the cap, 8.6% of team cap
2015 Broncos - Peyton Manning 17.5M against the cap, 11.7% of team cap
2014 Patriots - Tom Brady 14.8M against the cap, 10.6% of team cap
2013 Seahawks - Russell Wilson .7M against the cap (Rookie Contract), .5% of team cap
2012 Ravens - Joe Flacco 8M against the cap, 6.6% of team cap
2011 Giants - Eli Manning 14.1M against the cap, 11.7% of team cap

Of the last 10 Super Bowl wins, 8 are HOF or future HOF QBs
Tom Brady (4)
Patrick Mahomes (1)
Peyton Manning (1) - Carried by the defense that year
Russell Wilson (1) - Historic defense that year
Eli Manning (1) - I think he gets HOF

Percentage of team salary cap and outside of rookie contract
The average is 10.95% of the team cap for the winning Super Bowl QB

Russell Wilson 2021 32M Cap Number
How much would his salary be if he was the average cap value of a Super Bowl winning QB 21.6M

So what was the whole point of this.
1. You can't win the Super Bowl with just any QB. The majority of the time a team wins with a HOF QB.
2. Those Super Bowl winning QBs only ate up just under 11% of the team salary cap.

For Russ, here is his decision. Does he want legacy on the field or financial independence to do what he wants when his playing days are over, he can't have it both ways.

For the Seahawks, if Russell Wilson is not your QB, say goodbye to any realistic Super Bowl chances. Your best chance is to trade him for a top pick for the ability to choose a possible future HOF QB. We all know those QBs pan out at a pretty poor rate.

So what I'm hoping for here. Russ is our QB for as long as he wants to be here. He also has to restructure his contract so the team can get some offensive line help. Then the coaching staff has to get out of it's own way. Our roster was too strong to come away with just one chip from the LOB days.

I am pessimistic any of this happens. Too much pride and both parties are going to ruin a good thing....

The only reason we got Brown on the oline was because Wilson restructured his contract. That was not the first or last. He has shown he is willing to do it, but not sure he trusts PC to use the money on the oline.

 

[Fade]

Until this year no QB taking up 12% of the cap won a Super Bowl. So Tampa shouldn't have won based on history, but they did. And no sub 6 foot QB can be a franchise QB too, right.

QB salaries have spiked over the last decade relative to the cap. I look forward to this number continuing to go up over the next few years. Pretty soon the new argument will be no QB taking up 18% of the cap has won a Superbowl!

*EDIT* I just looked it up and your numbers are wrong.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers/tom-brady-4619/

Tom Brady's cap hit in 2020 was $28.375M that would be pushing 14% of the cap.

 

[GaiusMarius]

You can conclude different things with this data. For example, I conclude that less expensive QB's (those taking up less than 10%) win the Super Bowl as much as those above that number. That isn't the same as skill of course, since there are a lot of highly paid QB's that have been MIA from the Super Bowl for the past 6 years (Wilson and Rodgers).

That's being generous! You can argue that any of the cheaper champion quarterbacks (Wilson, Flacco, Wentz, Mahomes) would have been much better than the Peyton Manning that won with the Broncos.

It does help to have a skilled QB, but how much you pay them matters too. Otherwise you're in the Seattle-Kansas City model. Get a great young QB (understand the luck that goes into that!), load up and have about 3 real championship runs. That's what we enjoyed before Wilson's first big contract. Kansas City was able to keep the party going this year, but now Mahomes is going to take a big bite. I don't expect to see Kansas City in the Super Bowl anytime soon. Unless things line up just right (or if you're Tom Brady and the GOAT) you will not be winning, and probably not going to, any future Super Bowls with that highly paid QB.

Now a better case would be that even with the albatross of QB-contracts (I wish QB contracts would somehow be reformed in the next CBA to stop punishing teams for finding and paying a good one) you have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl (Tampa Bay) than going the blow-it-up and rebuild rookie QB route. Wilson and Mahomes are not common and there are far more QB busts than not.

 

[DarkVictory23]

After Dilfer won a Super Bowl...anyone can win a Super Bowl.

so because a whatever QB one it 1 time anyone can. Did you reap the OP, it kind of makes your point moot.

A 'whatever' QB didn't do it 1 time. That list is actually inaccurate because Nick Foles was the Super Bowl winning QB for Philly (their backup who nobody considers a strong starter anymore). Also Joe Flacco was good for a three year stretch but has been a mostly mediocre to occasionally poor QB for the rest of his time in the league. Also, 2015 Broncos Peyton Manning was technically Peyton Manning but as a QB that year he wasn't even replacement level.

Additionally, Eli Manning, despite winning 2 Super Bowls, has always been inconsistent and even if he gets into the HOF, he's nowhere near the talent level of the other HOF QBs on that list. As far as pure talent goes, I don't think he was on Russ's level at Russ's best.


In other words, the theory that you HAVE to have an elite QB to win a Super Bowl these days isn't held up by the results. It's not just Dilfer 20 years ago. In the last decade, the Super Bowl has been won by a backup in 2017, a thoroughly washed-up star in 2015, a guy who threw for more INTs than TDs the very next year in 2012, and a perennially overrated star in 2011.

Additionally, the rest of the list is skewed because almost half this list is taken up by one guy, so we actually aren't looking at that many names. So we've got a list of 10 names, which is really only 7 names because of Brady, and of those 7 names, 3 of them were more 'good' than 'great' and 1 was actually bordering on terrible, leaving only 3 who were actually great QBs. (Brady, Wilson, Mahomes).


This isn't an argument for getting rid of Wilson (I don't think we should), but a team can and do win it all with QBs of all talent levels. Sometimes a good QB will have a great season on the right team and a great QB will have a bad season on the wrong one.

 

[Rat]

Most QBs aren't considered bonafide HOFers until they actually win a Super Bowl. By this argument, the Chiefs should have traded Mahomes in the 2019 offseason.

 

[hox]

Most of those teams had top-tier defenses.