Seahawks-Redskins Preview ... Key to Victory #2 ...

[Hawkscanner]

Double Impact …
5 Keys to Victory for the Seahawks vs. the Redskins …


[Hank Williams, Jr playing:] “Are you ready for some football?” Yeah Baby, here we are at long last – back in the playoffs! Seattle finished the 2012 regular season 11-5 – just the 3rd time in franchise history that the Seahawks have topped the 11 win mark. But of course … the Hawks have their sights set on a much higher prize – the Lombardi Trophy. The Seahawks enter the playoffs on a hot streak, having won 7 of their last 8 games and outscoring teams 170-43 over their last 4 games. They are a team that no one truly wants to play. Well on Sunday, the Hawks face another team that enters the playoffs equally hot – the Washington Redskins. I said back at the end of November that this Redskin team was one to keep an eye on, and they certainly proved that, winning their last 7 games in a row. For most of this season, most of the national discussion surrounding who will win Offensive Rookie of the Year has centered on the first 2 picks of the 2012 NFL Draft – the Colts Andrew Luck … and the Redskins Robert Griffin III. After the Bear Beat-down in Chicago though, the rest of the country woke up to the fact that there was a 3rd Candidate – one who hadn’t been handed his job from Day 1 … an unheralded too short 3rd Round Pick who actually had to earn his position as the starting quarterback of an NFL Team … and to prove that he belonged week in and week out – Seattle’s Russell Wilson. This Sunday afternoon it’s Griffin and Wilson – mano a mano – each with a chance to pad their resume … and to get one step closer to football’s ultimate prize.

Earlier today, we discussed Key to Victory #1: Containing the Redskins Running Attack. In case you missed that, here is the link to that piece ...

Key #1: Put a Governor on the Twin Engine Race Car …


We turn our attention next to the one element of this game that everyone wants to talk about ...

Key #2: Contain the Clone …

Before we get to our discussions of Robert Griffin and this passing offense, let’s take a look at some of the Redskins Passing Offense numbers and how they compare with those of the Seahawks Pass Defense …

Redskins Off. Category	NFL Rank	Seahawks Def. Category	NFL Rank
27.3 Pts Scored/Game	4th Most	15.3 Pts Allowed/Game	#1 in the NFL
213.9 Yds/game	21st	203.0 Pass Yds/Game Allwd	6th Best
53 Passes of 20 Yards+	12th Most	40 Passes of 20 Yards+ Allowed	6th Fewest
35.8% 3rd Down Conv Rate	24th	Allw 38.4% of 3rd Down Conv	17th
24 Passing TD’s	13th Most	15 Passing TD’s Allwd	2nd Fewest
Score TD’s 57.14% in Red Zone (AT HOME)	15th	TD’s Allwd 55.0% in Red Zone (ON ROAD)	16th in NFL
33 Sacks Allowed	Tied 12th Fewest w/Seahawks	36 Sacks	tied for 18th
102.4 Passer Rating for Robert Griffin III	3rd Best	71.8 QB Passer Rating Against	3rd Best

[tdo=4]Redskins Passing Offense vs. Seahawks Pass Defense …[/tdo]

As you can see, the Redskins Passing Attack has been fairly dynamic. For Seahawk fans who aren’t highly familiar with the Redskins – the offense will look very familiar. Redskins Head Coach Mike Shanahan incorporated a lot of what made Griffin successful at Baylor in winning the Heisman Trophy last season … and it’s paid off big time at the NFL level. Like the Seahawks, the Redskins run a kind of hybrid West Coast/Spread Option Offense utilizing a lot of the same concepts that Mike Shanahan used when he coached the Broncos. Like the Seahawks, the Redskins will use the Pistol (the truncated shotgun zone read offense developed under Nevada’s Chris Ault and utilized by QB Colin Kaepernick) … and the Zone Read Option (a system honed by pioneers such as Chip Kelly, Urban Meyer, and Bill Snyder). In fact, the reason that Pete Carroll, Darrell Bevel, and the rest of the coaching staff began implementing these packages for Russell Wilson was because of the success of Griffin and other offenses in college football.

Even though the Redskins have only thrown 46% of the time … they make the most of those throws, as they average an amazing 8.4 Yards/Pass (#1 in the league. The Seahawks are #3 by the way with an average of 8.0 Yards/Pass) … and they connect 66.5% of the time (5th Highest completion percentage in the NFL). Now some of the reason for that high completion percentage has been as the result of screen passes and short dump-offs … but not all.

As you can see, the Redskins have had 53 Pass Plays that have covered 20 yards or more this year (that’s the 12th Most in the NFL). And Redskin receivers have been getting deep this season, as they average 12.6 Yards/Reception (4th Most Yards/Completion in the league. Seahawks receivers you ask? They average 12.5 Yards/Reception – 5th Most). So like the Seahawks, these guys can get deep. Who are these guys Griffin has been throwing to? Let’s take a look at RGIII’s targets this season …

Receiver	Size	Catches	Yards	Yards/Catch	TD’s	#Catches of 20 Yds+	% of Passing Off
WR Josh Morgan	6’1” 220 Lbs	48	510	10.6	2	4	16.49%
WR Pierre Garcon	6’0” 212 Lbs	44	633	14.4	4	10	15.12%
WR Santana Moss	5’10” 189 Lbs	41	573	14.0	8	10	14.09%
WR Leonard Hankerson	6’2” 211 Lbs	38	543	14.3	3	8	13.06%
TE Logan Paulson	6'5” 261 Lbs	25	308	12.3	1	3	8.59%
*TE Fred Davis*	6’4” 247 Lbs	24	325	13.5	0	4	8.25%
WR Aldrick Robinson	5'10" 181 Lbs	19	237	21.5	3	4	6.53%
RB Evan Royster	6'1" 216 Lbs	15	109	7.3	0	1	5.15%
RB Alfred Morris	5'9" 218 Lbs	11	77	7.0	0	1	3.78%
TE Niles Paul	6'1" 233 Lbs	8	152	19.0	1	5	2.75%

[tdo=8](2012) Redskins Top Receiving Targets[/tdo]

* Davis was injured in Week 4 and lost for the season with a torn left Achilles tendon

As you can see, Griffin has certainly spread the peace pipe around this season … with (proportionately) very few of his passes going to his running backs (only 26 of the Redskins 291 total receptions). Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Leonard Hankerson, and Aldrick Robinson, are all 4.4 speed receivers (Moss actually runs a 4.31) who can get deep on you, so the Seahawks defensive backs will have to bring their lunch pails.


Redskins Receiving Corps vs. Seahawks Secondary …

Back to the question that was posed to Pete Carroll -- How do you game plan against your offense (which is the Redskins offense)? Let’s revisit part of that conversation 710 ESPN’s Brock Huard had with former Oregon Offensive Coordinator, Head Coach, and Athletic Director Mike Bellotti. Here is what Bellotti had to say about scheming against the Zone Read Option …

Brock: “… Is there something that a team can do well to really nullify and stop that Zone Read – something that we should watch with Jim Harbaugh, who’s very familiar with this and comes from the college games, played against it, studied it, and everything else? What are some things that we should keep a close eye if San Francisco has success versus those Zone Read Concepts?”

Bellotti: “Well, it’ll be something in the means of getting an 8th Man in the box, playing some form of man with pressure – dropping the Free Safety down as a spy and having him just key the quarterback because athletically, that should be a good matchup or somebody with the athleticism to stay with the quarterback down the field. And then, if you can commit 8 people to the box; if you can play man on the outside – just say that, “we’re just not gonna (I mean we are gonna) cover those receivers – we’re not really worried about them and not gonna double cover them. And that’s the thing at the NFL level. Most of the teams have receivers that you have to double cover. If there’s going to get man coverage and single coverage, they’re eventually going to get beat because the quality -- the accuracy of the quarterbacks and the athleticism of the receivers is just really tough. So, you can’t do it on an every play basis. They’re not gonna run the Zone Read on an every down basis because they don’t want to get the quarterback injured. So, I think occasionally if you see if you know when and you can accurately predict that, you roll the 8th Man down in the box – maybe even the 9th Man – um, and it just depends on, you know, you roll the dice a little bit – you come with pressure. The typical thing has been pressure, penetration, and you know, getting the 8th and 9th Man down in the box especially at the point of attack so that you screw up the Zone Read where the read of the mesh point is.”

Source:
Brock and Salk 710 ESPN Interview (12/18/12) w/Mike Bellotti

That’s some good insights by Bellotti there … and even though Carroll himself has been mum on the subject, we can play a bit of armchair coach here and make some educated guesses.

As I mentioned earlier, one approach might be to bring back the “the Amoeba” Defense. A 6 or 7 Defensive Back package would certainly bring a much faster product to the field in order to cut down on those big plays and at the same time bring faster, quicker guys that could be utilized against Morris and RGIII.

The other approach I could also see is the one that Bellotti suggests – stacking the box with 8 guys and making a “spy” out of one of your more athletic defenders. In the case of the Redskins, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bradley and company roll that one out either, with (I’m guessing) Kam Chancellor playing that role. With Brandon Browner back from serving his 4 game suspension, Seattle’s secondary is finally back at full strength for the first time in the month, so that would certainly be an intriguing option. Richard Sherman and Browner would likely be matched up against Garcon and Moss (in essence taking away the edges) … which brings the 3rd Nickel Corner issue front and center once again.

It bears repeating that the numbers showed that when Marcus Trufant was the starting Nickel Corner were downright ugly … as he was getting burned 72.4% of the time (the 2nd worst percentage of any 3rd Nickel Corner in football) and did not have a single Pass Defensed on the season. When he was in there, opposing QB’s were going away from Browner and Sherman … and instead targeting the inside slot receivers, finding far greater success there. Things really appeared to turn around there once Trufant went out with a hamstring pull. But Trufant was back in there last week against the Rams as the 5th DB in the Nickel Package. Carroll was asked this week about whether or not Trufant would be back in there for this game. Here is what he had to say …

"It does change the dynamic a little bit as Brandon is back," Carroll said. "But Tru had a very good game this week, a nice job in his first game back."

Source:
http://seattletimes.com/html/seahawks/2020031521_seahawksnotes01.html

YIKES! Personally, I’m hoping that Carroll has his “Always Compete Pete” hat on this week … because I don’t believe that Trufant has the quickness necessary to keep up with younger, quicker slot receivers anymore. Personally, I’d go with Jeremy Lane and Byron Maxwell in there … but Trufant put a fly in the ointment by outperforming each of them last week. Lane and Maxwell each had key miscues in the Rams game. In the 2nd Quarter, Lane was beat for a 37 yard reception to Chris Givens and later in that same drive, it was he that Austin Pettis beat for the touchdown. Lane was later flagged for a Pass Interference Penalty in the 3rd Quarter … and Maxwell for a 25 yard Pass Interference Penalty in the 4th Quarter that could have meant the game. Though inexperience reared its ugly head up in that game, Lane had a very good game against the 49ers and looks like he has the physical tools (size, speed, quickness, and physical style of play) to be able to lock down that spot for the long haul. RGIII is an extremely accurate passer (he’s thrown only 5 interceptions this season) with an absolute cannon for arm. I’ll go out on a limb and say right now that how the Nickel Backs perform will go a long ways toward determining who wins this football game.

But as they say, the best pass defense is a good pass rush. Let’s take a look at how the Seahawks Front 7 matches up with the Redskins Offensive Line …

Though their Offensive Line has done very well opening up holes for the running game, as a unit, Football Outsiders ranks Washington 23rd Overall in terms of their Pass Rush. They have allowed the exact same number of sacks as Seattle (33), so there is certainly opportunity there to get after the quarterback. Let’s take a look at some individual match-ups in this game that bear watching …


RT Tyler Polumbus vs. LDE Bruce Irvin…

On Sunday, the Seahawks face an old buddy, former Seahawk and now starting Right Tackle for the Redskins Tyler Polumbus (6’8” 305 Pounds). Polumbus is a guy who has had a decent season, but it’s not been completely smooth, as he has allowed 5.25 Sacks this year according to Pro Football Weekly. As most of you well know, Polumbus isn’t exactly the most fleet of foot, so can potentially be susceptible to speed rushers. In the Ravens game, LDE Arthur Jones had 1.5 Sacks and 3 QB Hits going up against Polumbus. Bruce Irvin (6’3” 248 Pounds) had 8.0 sacks this season, so certainly will be foaming at the mouth over the possibility of getting after RGIII on Sunday. We’ll see if he can bring the heat.


LT Trent Williams vs. RDE Chris Clemons…

On the other side of the Redskins Offensive Line, Trent Williams (6’5” 325 Pounds), the 4th overall pick in the 2010 draft, has brought a solid (but not elite) level of play to the Left Tackle position. As a converted Right Tackle, Williams does have a lot of athleticism, but the knock on him coming in to the draft was that he had bad habits (especially in pass blocking) that might cause him issues. This season, Williams allowed 5.5 Sacks and was flagged 4 times for false start penalties and twice for holding. Williams will have to bring his A Game this weekend because he’s going up against one of the best in Chris Clemons (6’3” 254 Pounds), who had 11.5 Sacks on the season.

The good news for the Seahawks this weekend is that according to Pete Carroll they are healthier than they have been in awhile, as Marshawn Lynch was the only player who was limited in practice on Wednesday (and that I would surmise is totally precautionary as they just want to give him rest). Though Leroy Hill is healthy though, I would still look for Malcolm Smith (6’0” 226 Pounds) in there at times, because he has looked so much quicker to the ball than Hill and seems to have a real nose for where it’s going to be. He and guys like Greg Scruggs (6’3” 284 Pounds) – another real athletic player -- could be players who could be real unsung heroes in this game.

We’ll turn our attention next to the other side of the football and discuss some keys to the game for the Seahawks Offense.

 

[Sac]

I didn't realize Polumbus was playing for the 'Skins. He's definitely a lumbering oaf and Irvin should win that match up easily.

 

[Shock2k]

These are sweet!

It should be noted, that even though Josh Morgan has more receptions than Pierre Garcon. Garcon missed 8 games. Garcon is his number 1 target right now.

P.S. Is it wierd Hugh Millen is trolling our boards.

 

[QuahHawk]

One of .net's best, this place is for true hawk fans, thanks again hawkscanner you are awesome.

 

[Hawk-A-Loogie]

Nice.

 

[Hawkscanner]

These are sweet! It should be noted, that even though Josh Morgan has more receptions than Pierre Garcon. Garcon missed 8 games. Garcon is his number 1 target right now.

Scary thought that he's only been in there 10 games this season, eh? And that really says a lot about RGIII honestly, which should bode well for Seattle. If it's true that he really locks in on his primarily receiver on any given play (Garcon mostly of late) and doesn't work through his progressions quickly ... he's going to be in trouble in this game. This is a secondary who has shown a propensity to take advantage of QB's who do exactly that.

 

[NYCoug]

Do you think it's possible that we'll see the Hawks use Bobby Wagner to spy RG3 at all? Malcolm Smith possibly? I don't recall us having to spy any of the quarterbacks we've faced this season, but it's possible that we did against Carolina and possibly even in the San Fran game.

With Griffin slightly limited with the knee brace (and I don't fully believe the story about him being ok but the brace staying, that's just the Redskins trying to let on that he's not susceptible to further injury) it would seem that Wagner and Smith both have the speed and athleticism to actually give this some thought. Maybe show some looks, like you said, with 2 LB's and an extra DB so that Earl Thomas could shadow RG3 at times? I think this D could pull it off.

 

[LuvMySkins]

Scary thought that he's only been in there 10 games this season, eh? And that really says a lot about RGIII honestly, which should bode well for Seattle. If it's true that he really locks in on his primarily receiver on any given play (Garcon mostly of late) and doesn't work through his progressions quickly ... he's going to be in trouble in this game. This is a secondary who has shown a propensity to take advantage of QB's who do exactly that.

If you looked you'd see there's also 3 other WRs on the team with over 500 yards receiving. There's also a reason he only has 5 INTs on the season as well. The dude doesnt make stupid decisions like throw into coverage. Garcon is open a lot because the dude is both speedy and one of the most physical WRs in the league.

Sherman vs Steve Smith was a chippy, physical battle. Sherman vs Garcon could go along the same lines.

 

[SkinsGuru]

a couple of things;

If you put Sherman and Browner on Garcon and Moss respectively (or reversed) you will not be taking away the outside as Moss is playing the slot WR this year . . . Garcon lines up on one side and either Morgan or Hankerson on the other . . .

As for Polumbus, he is HORRIBLE at pass blocking, but has been GREAT at run blocking . . . the Skins o-line has been GREAT at run blocking, but adequate at best in pass pro . . . Everyone says the Skins use a lot of screens and short passes . . . 1) those are part of the west coast offense 2) more importantly they are used to mask the deficiencies of the offensive line in pass pro . . .

So, a good pass rush can make some noise, but one thing RGIII is VERY good at is getting the ball our quickly (one of the quickest releases in the game) and buying time . . . I hope for the Skins sake that RGIII is able to either go braceless or with the thinner lighter brace they fitted him for yesterday because i think that lateral movement behind the line of scrimmage will be needed in this game . . .

and again, one of the keys for the Skins will be how ShannyCo schemes this game . . . the farther/son combo have been masterful at this all season . . . should be fun to watch this chess matchup

 

[Hawkscanner]

Scary thought that he's only been in there 10 games this season, eh? And that really says a lot about RGIII honestly, which should bode well for Seattle. If it's true that he really locks in on his primarily receiver on any given play (Garcon mostly of late) and doesn't work through his progressions quickly ... he's going to be in trouble in this game. This is a secondary who has shown a propensity to take advantage of QB's who do exactly that.

If you looked you'd see there's also 3 other WRs on the team with over 500 yards receiving. There's also a reason he only has 5 INTs on the season as well. The dude doesnt make stupid decisions like throw into coverage. Garcon is open a lot because the dude is both speedy and one of the most physical WRs in the league.

Sherman vs Steve Smith was a chippy, physical battle. Sherman vs Garcon could go along the same lines.

Dude. If you've read the piece, you'll know that I've got all those statistics above. I realize that. My comment was actually based upon something that Derek Stephens over at Field Gulls wrote -- which was posted over here yesterday ...

http://www.seahawks.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=61591

My point being -- RGIII can't get too cute thinking he's going to have a lot of time back there. This is a relentless defense that will find a way to get to him if he holds on to the rock too long.

 

[AF_Hawk]

After watching a couple of highlight videos of RG3 in the pocket after play-action (which seemed like every passing down, but I'm sure that isn't the case), every defender seems to over pursue him and opens up a huge lane for him to run through. He isn't like Russell when he is given pressue, he tends to tuck and run more often then trying to find an open receiver (not to say he doesn't look and throw just Russell always keeps his eyes down field). The Linebackers will need to be on point in this game since we are more than likely going to have Red out there more often then not trying to chase down the fastest QB in the league. We all know they are going to run the ball, and they will get their yards, I'm already preparing for that so I don't rip out the rest of my hair. We just have to not fall for their killer play action. If we can stop them on the run and somewhat eliminate their play action then we could pull this one out in DC. If not then this game will go down to the wire.

 

[SkinsGuru]

After watching a couple of highlight videos of RG3 in the pocket after play-action (which seemed like every passing down, but I'm sure that isn't the case), every defender seems to over pursue him and opens up a huge lane for him to run through. He isn't like Russell when he is given pressue, he tends to tuck and run more often then trying to find an open receiver (not to say he doesn't look and throw just Russell always keeps his eyes down field). The Linebackers will need to be on point in this game since we are more than likely going to have Red out there more often then not trying to chase down the fastest QB in the league. We all know they are going to run the ball, and they will get their yards, I'm already preparing for that so I don't rip out the rest of my hair. We just have to not fall for their killer play action. If we can stop them on the run and somewhat eliminate their play action then we could pull this one out in DC. If not then this game will go down to the wire.

you hit the nail on the head . . . "we just have to not fall for their killer play action" . . . that is FAR harder than it seems, especially with such an aggressive defense . . . gap control and no over-pursuit will be key to defending the skins . . .

 

[Hawkscanner]

If you put Sherman and Browner on Garcon and Moss respectively (or reversed) you will not be taking away the outside as Moss is playing the slot WR this year . . . Garcon lines up on one side and either Morgan or Hankerson on the other . . .

I definitely misspoke there on that one -- my bad. That actually shines the spotlight squarely on Seattle's Nickel Backs and leads us right back in to that discussion again. Moss in the slot with his speed (4.31) really could provide a real issue for the Seahawks, as that is exactly how teams have been burning the Hawks of late -- avoiding Brandon and Sherman and going right after those other guys. Given his speed and quickness, I would (if I were Gus Bradley) match Jeremy Lane against him. There has been a lot of recent discussion regarding Lane's speed ... with Pete Carroll saying that he believes HE runs closer to a 4.3 (40) and that he just might be the fastest player on the Hawks. If you've seen the guy on punt coverage as we have all season ... you'd probably agree with that assessment. In addition to being fast, he's also a very physical corner who has shown good coverage skills. So, best guess is that Lane draws Moss on Sunday -- a definite marquee match-up and a real key to this game.