Seahawks 2 1/2 to 3 point UNDERDOGS at SF

[HawkWow]

I've said this in every gambling related thread but will do so again here: Learn to construct your own line before even looking at what Vegas has listed.

Again, they are playing to public perception, big bettors and small. Their line means very little to the smart bettor until it's time to place his bet.

IE: I do my legwork. The criteria I use tells me the Hawks will win, on the road (etc) by 8 pts. Now I look at the published line.. BOOM, 9ers giving 3. That's an 11 point swing and I jump hard on the Hawks.

IE 2) Looking at my already established line, I see I have Houston 3 pts better than Jax. I look at the Vegas line and to my disappointment, Houston is favored by 3. There's no value in that line for me, so I move to the next...until I find what I deem weakness in the LV line. This isn't hard, but it is time consuming and requires discipline and money management skills.

There's many approaches to this, this is just how I do things. I have much more time to establish my line than Vegas has to set their number. IF the line goes up or down because of incoming $$, I don't care...I am going by my numbers, not theirs. There's either value or there's not. Simple. What's hard is learning to step away when you see no value to be had. Not easy to do. But it's what winners do. Good luck.

 

[Polaris]

Given that 'zona and the Rams have been elminated from the Division, and given that the Niners have the fourth best record in the NFC and an schedule that's filthy-cushy post Seattle, San Fransisco is virtually assured of a wildcard spot almost by gravity. OTOH, even if San Fran were to win, it would take an almost total Seattle collapse including at least one home loss (yeah right) for them to take the Division.

San Fran has virtually nothing realistically to play for. They are almost a mortal lock for the #6 seed.

Not so. If the Eagles don't win their division and tie with the 49ers, I think they get the tie breaker. Could be wrong on that, but I double it.



In any case, that line will change soon after what happened Monday.

Oh I agree the line will move because of what happened on Monday because of the casual better.

However, let's look at the Sea-SF Division/Playoff picture. Seattle is already 11-1 and faces San Fran @ San Fran, NYGiants @ NYGiants, Cardinals at home, and the Rams at home. Seattle can lose every away game and STILL win the division and HFA. For that matter any two wins by Seattle against these four does the same. Football Outsiders estimates the odds for this happening are about 98%.

That means that San Fran does not have a realistic shot at the division crown (even if they were to win this Sunday....which they won't).

So now what are the odds of San Fran missing the playoffs? Actually very low (football outsiders estimates less than 1/4). Why?

San Fran's remaining schedule is: Seattle (at home), TB @TB, Atlanta (at home), and 'zona @ 'zona. With the exception of Seattle, San Fran should breeze though three of these ending 11-5. At worst we're looking at 10-6....very worst.

So who's going to compete with San Fran at 11-5? No one in the NFC North. Only the Lions could match 11-5 and that would win them the NFC North title and thus a different playoff spot.

The same applies to the NFC East. Only two teams (Eagles and Cowboys) could match 11-5 and they play each other. Thus the only surviving 11-5 team (hypothetically) would win the NFC East and not compete for a playoff spot.

As for the NFC South, Tampa Bay and Atlanta are out, and Carolina and New Orleans are both iron locks for playoff bids themselves independant of San Fran.

That leaves the NFC West, but San Fran faces Arizona and thus completely controls that scenario.

So for all intents in purposes, San Fran is finding themselves in very much the same position that Seattle was in last year. Going to the playoffs is almost a mortal lock (esp given that many of the 7 and 6 win teams play each other), but winning the division is effectively impossible. As such this Sunday game playoff wise means fairly little for the Niners.

However, for Seattle, this Sunday's game is huge because it locks up both the Division and a first round bye immediately. San Fran clinches nothing if they win.

 

[scutterhawk]

We're coming off a MNF game and have less time to prepare. I'm not surprised.

So the Whiners will get 1 more day than we do to prepare?, that's only fair, as they will need it, eh?

 

[Perfundle]

You are correct. The "Harvin news" did not move the line. Nor did the BB or WT news. Non QBs have very little impact on line fluctuations, as we learned this past week.

Looks like you two are right on this. However...

The line opened at 4.5 most places, but the MGM had it at 5.5. It stayed fairly steady thru-out the week.

This is not true. Most casinos had their lines go from 4.5 Sunday night to 6.5 by Monday, and a 2-point swing overnight is a pretty big change.

As for the spread for the next game, SF was only a 3-point underdog against the Saints in New Orleans after two pathetic offensive performances, so it definitely looks like a lot of people bet on them regardless.

 

[davidonmi]

if the line moves up to 3.5 it would be really enticing. I don't like this matchup for seattle, SF needs it more and probably wins by 3. Say 20-17 or something?

 

[ZagHawk]

We've managed to beat the spread for so far every big game this year (I think). I'd take that bet.

 

[MidwestHawker]

We've managed to beat the spread for so far every big game this year (I think). I'd take that bet.

We lost ATS against Indy, Tampa, Tennessee, and St. Louis. Pushed against Houston.

This is going to be the first game we're not favored in.

 

[droop828]

I think SF's schedule is anything but easy. In fact their last 4 games are pretty rough sans the home Atlanta game. Those road games vs Tampa and Arizona are not gimmies for that team. The 49ers could easily go 1-3 the last 4 games.

 

[BleedGreenNblue]

keep kap running for his life. Let the LOB clean up the backfield.

 

[seahawksflow]

Remember, people; Vegas lines have nothing to do with who they think will win, the lines adjust to how people are betting...

Came in here to post this. San Fran is one of the most betted on team in sports so no big surprise they would get a few points at home especially now that they are much healthier than the first time we played.

Do you have a link for this? I have heard Dallas, but never SF.




Even I am jumping on this heavy.