.Net scoop is hitting the internet - opponents penalties

[gulliver]

I love that this story is getting out there.

First off, I posted the results through our first ~8 games and pointed out that our opponents were being penalized far less than THEIR average in almost every game. When I did, half the people here refused to even evaluate the numbers because they think it's lame for fans to even entertain the idea that we're being scrutinized more heavily for fear that it made them "bad" fans, and the other half got hung up on OUR penalties, which is completely beside the point.

Second, the more traction this story gets, the more referees are going to have to think before they flag us (and the less before they flag our opponents), which means more equitable calls and (hopefully) more wins. In fact, make a note TODAY that the story is now in the ether, so we can evaluate whether anything changes on the field from this day forward. In other words, make an annotation on that line chart.

My feelings are that this is not an accident or a coincidence--the numbers all suggest this--but that it is the NFL's latest attempt to ensure parity. Penalize the bajeezus out of the champs, look the other way on everything their opponents do, and voila! A new champ.

The fact that the story has returned to .NET, and that Pete is scratching his head over it and John Clayton is scratching his head over it etc. is vindication.

 

[RichNhansom]

Excellent info. I'm very curious to see where this goes, of anywhere.

 

[LawlessHawk]

...and voila! A new champ.

This is the driving force. The $N$F$L$ would make no where near the amount of money to stuff in their coffers if there was a repeat champion as they stand to make off of a new champion each year... sales of all things Superbowl champion, ad revenue, etc. would drop off significantly. Especially when we're talking a team like the Seahawks... less emphasis to ensure a new champion if it was, say, Dallas repeating...

 

[StoneCold]

...and voila! A new champ.

This is the driving force. The $N$F$L$ would make no where near the amount of money to stuff in their coffers if there was a repeat champion as they stand to make off of a new champion each year... sales of all things Superbowl champion, ad revenue, etc. would drop off significantly. Especially when we're talking a team like the Seahawks... less emphasis to ensure a new champion if it was, say, Dallas repeating...

If you believe the games are rigged why do you watch?

SC

 

[Cartire]

...and voila! A new champ.

This is the driving force. The $N$F$L$ would make no where near the amount of money to stuff in their coffers if there was a repeat champion as they stand to make off of a new champion each year... sales of all things Superbowl champion, ad revenue, etc. would drop off significantly. Especially when we're talking a team like the Seahawks... less emphasis to ensure a new champion if it was, say, Dallas repeating...

If you believe the games are rigged why do you watch?

SC

People watch WWE and Boxing. So obviously that doesnt matter.

 

[twisted_steel2]

From reddit,

Classic example of a non-call. Look at the running back, ref is literally right there looking in that direction, Hawk players are pointing.... seriously wtf

"Nah man, no worries, all good."

So Arizona averages 6.364 penalties a game, against us, 3.

-112.1%

 

[Cartire]

From reddit,

Classic example of a non-call. Look at the running back, ref is literally right there looking in that direction, Hawk players are pointing.... seriously wtf

"Nah man, no worries, all good."

Holy crap. I remember that play, and I didnt realize who it was that was moving, I just remember the defense going livid.

The crazy obviousness.

 

[HawkAroundTheClock]

...and voila! A new champ.

This is the driving force. The $N$F$L$ would make no where near the amount of money to stuff in their coffers if there was a repeat champion as they stand to make off of a new champion each year... sales of all things Superbowl champion, ad revenue, etc. would drop off significantly. Especially when we're talking a team like the Seahawks... less emphasis to ensure a new champion if it was, say, Dallas repeating...

If you believe the games are rigged why do you watch?

SC

Have you never been in a situation where you fear the worst, yet hope for the best?

Aside from that, noting the fact that the league makes a ton more cash with new winners each year does not equate to believing all the games are rigged.

For example, pointing out that the light outage at SB47 (has that happened in an NFL game ever?) just happened to occur during the game when advertising rates are at their highest, it does seem like less of an accident and more of a money-grab ploy. It doesn't mean I believe, or I expect others to believe, or that anyone has proof that it was a calculated move. But when anything happens that is so unbelievably rare, so statistically unlikely and outside the norm, AND the NFL just happens to reap massive financial benefits from it, acknowledging the possibility that purposeful decisions were made is perfectly acceptable.

Until a massive scandal erupts to prove any of the questionable aspects, we have faith that the game we enjoy is being perpetrated fairly by the billionaires who run it. I gotta say, billionaires in general don't have the best track record regarding fair play. What's "fun and games" to us is often "life and death" to them. They don't leave a whole lot to chance when it comes to hundreds of millions of dollars. And without everyday people keeping an eye on them, they would gladly pull every trick they could get away with to maximize profit. Of that, I have no doubt.

 

[Goodwin Seahawk]

I agree that there had been some horrible calls and lots of no calls (especially holding)

With that said there is one possible explanation.

Seattle plays very physical football. The refs allows both teams to play more physical leading to fewer penalties by opponents (vs their average) and seattle still gets a bunch since they are more aggressive.

I would also be curious in the stats with items such as offside, false start and illegal formation removed

Agreed! I was thinking this exactly.

 

[StoneCold]

...and voila! A new champ.

This is the driving force. The $N$F$L$ would make no where near the amount of money to stuff in their coffers if there was a repeat champion as they stand to make off of a new champion each year... sales of all things Superbowl champion, ad revenue, etc. would drop off significantly. Especially when we're talking a team like the Seahawks... less emphasis to ensure a new champion if it was, say, Dallas repeating...

If you believe the games are rigged why do you watch?

SC

Have you never been in a situation where you fear the worst, yet hope for the best?

Aside from that, noting the fact that the league makes a ton more cash with new winners each year does not equate to believing all the games are rigged.

For example, pointing out that the light outage at SB47 (has that happened in an NFL game ever?) just happened to occur during the game when advertising rates are at their highest, it does seem like less of an accident and more of a money-grab ploy. It doesn't mean I believe, or I expect others to believe, or that anyone has proof that it was a calculated move. But when anything happens that is so unbelievably rare, so statistically unlikely and outside the norm, AND the NFL just happens to reap massive financial benefits from it, acknowledging the possibility that purposeful decisions were made is perfectly acceptable.

Until a massive scandal erupts to prove any of the questionable aspects, we have faith that the game we enjoy is being perpetrated fairly by the billionaires who run it. I gotta say, billionaires in general don't have the best track record regarding fair play. What's "fun and games" to us is often "life and death" to them. They don't leave a whole lot to chance when it comes to hundreds of millions of dollars. And without everyday people keeping an eye on them, they would gladly pull every trick they could get away with to maximize profit. Of that, I have no doubt.

The Billionaires stand to lose a lot more than they would ever make by rigging if it were to come out. The sales increase for one team that wins the Super Bowl or the few extra millions they wold get from orchestrating a power outage pales in comparison to the loss of revenue if it were ever proven they tampered with games. Does that mean it doesn't or couldn't happen occasionally by a few idiots? No, but as a standard policy by the NFL it makes no sense.

@Cartire. Yes people watch WWE, and they know it's all for show. The reason we watch, cry, yell and by NFL stuff is because we think it's as real as it can be. Pop that balloon and the revenue goes away.

There is no way the monetary calculation works in favor of rigging.

SC

 

[BocciHawk]

An interesting theory a friend of mine posited is that the hawks defense doesn't cause a lot of penalties because they don't run exotic packages and blitzes. Most offensive penalties are procedural, motion of false starts and holding. Defenses that jump around a lot cause a lot of the false starts and blitzing can induce more holding penalties and linemen try to deal with extra players to cover and the deception of which guy is their assignment. I've noticed there are fewer false starts this year at the Clink. Teams are preparing for the loud environment and have focused on cutting those down. It's interesting to note int eh article it shows the Redskins have more penalties called on the opposition than any other team, they also employ more blitzes and exotic Cover 0 coverage than most other teams.

Seattle doesn't try to trick you. They count on being faster and better and beating you even though their doing exactly what you expect. Curious what our disparity was last year and if in both years there has been a noticeable difference road and away.

SC

On that last point, there was an analysis of the last year Seahawks numbers, and there was no disparity like this last year for the Seahawks -- and one could argue that last years defense was both similar, and more scary, than this year, so any argument that the style of defense is causing the problem is moot -- unless you think that the new emphasis changed everything, which would be IMHO just an affirmation, it would be the NFL systemically screwing the Seahawks by changing the rules.

That same analysis looked at the 2013 Ravens as they were the defending Super Bowl champions and saw no meaningful difference between their rate of opponent penalties and the average across all teams i.e. it's not something like teams playing better and more careful ball against a reigning champion.

All of this analysis was linked to earlier in this topic, it's on Reddit.

I'd encourage people to email and tweet, I do think something is rotten in Denmark, and at the least, it's embarrassing to the NFL to have it out there. It's not like they can treat us more poorly because we bring it up...

 

[Cartire]

@Cartire. Yes people watch WWE, and they know it's all for show. The reason we watch, cry, yell and by NFL stuff is because we think it's as real as it can be. Pop that balloon and the revenue goes away.

There is no way the monetary calculation works in favor of rigging.

SC

Dude, without going PWR, we have video proof of a cop killing a non-resistant man, and he got off scott free.

The only way rigging would ever get proven is with a signed, notarized affidavit of the accused admitting to it. As long as the accused always deny, there is no way enough evidence would every come to public light that would convince people of anything.

It may or may not be happening, but I could never assume that we would find out when its blatant that most people just dont want to know.

 

[LawlessHawk]

All out rigging? No. Gentle "persuasion" over the course of a season to maybe, possibly steer the narrative with a highly subjective method and without being too obvious?... could very well be.

"Well this hasn't happened as obviously to other Superbowl champions in the recent past", you say?? Most recent Superbowl champions have steered their own narrative by tanking all on their own...

A little tinfoil never hurt anybody.

 

[StoneCold]

@Cartire. Yes people watch WWE, and they know it's all for show. The reason we watch, cry, yell and by NFL stuff is because we think it's as real as it can be. Pop that balloon and the revenue goes away.

There is no way the monetary calculation works in favor of rigging.

SC

Dude, without going PWR, we have video proof of a cop killing a non-resistant man, and he got off scott free.

The only way rigging would ever get proven is with a signed, notarized affidavit of the accused admitting to it. As long as the accused always deny, there is no way enough evidence would every come to public light that would convince people of anything.

It may or may not be happening, but I could never assume that we would find out when its blatant that most people just dont want to know.

No need to go PWR. Bias and rigging are two very different things. In the case you bring up their is absolutely bias at play, we'll just have to wait and see if he gets off scott free. I think there is bias at play in the NFL and sports in general. Star players get Star treatment. Disliked players get disliked player treatment. Every fan base complains about the unfairness of refereeing. A single season or a few games is not a big enough sample size to make any grand judgement.

All of that said I think it's very interesting that there is a disparity, I just don't believe it's caused by overt actions.

SC

 

[Sac]

Kings/Lakers Western Conference Finals.

I rest my case.

 

[scutterhawk]

The only explanation other than referee bias is that the Seahawks are indeed committing more penalites than the other teams. That doesn't seem very likely (especially when our opponents get fewer penalties playing us than they usually do...that tells me the refs are so busy watching the Seahawks that they miss what the other guys are doing) but we have also gotten away with some things this year so I'm just not sure what to believe.

Do you theorize that the referees have actually been instructed by the NFL, or that it's more of an unconscious bias?

If I weren't so avid a Seahawks fan, I would have just quit watching the screw job they have been getting from Goodell's Goons.
What with games being metered by these jackasses, it's a small wonder that Super Bowl winning teams have a gigantic hurdle to get over for a repeat, well, except if you're exceptionally good, and are the NFL favorite child (Patriots) that is.
I hate the Officials and their bosses when they try to shape how games are CALLED, because they look the other way when our opponents commit penalties, because they're attempting to give lesser talented teams a chance to compete, tilting the field against the Seahawks in the process.
Now that this disparity has been exposed for the folly that it is, will the Officials be taking their thumbs off the scale?
I believe that the only thing that they will probably do, for the remainder of THIS Season anyways, is be a little less conspicuous about doing their obvious screw jobs.
Of course, they could very well just keep on keeping on, per orders from headquarters.

 

[scutterhawk]

The most interesting part is how the previous NFL Champion was the luckiest team in terms of discrepancy the year before. And that team (the 2013 Ravens) were one of the league's most penalized teams when they won it all in 2012. Their situation was similar to Seattle's, but their treatment by officials was the total opposite.

Basically, the data makes it look like the NFL is out to get the Seahawks in 2014, to knock them down a peg. Very hard to look at that data and think anything else. Could just be a coincidence, but it still looks really bad.

Unfortunately, the sample size argues against coincidence IMO. Too bad; guess it's something we'll have to overcome.

You ain't going to "Overcome" unless the Officiating allows you to. (stacked deck)

 

[scutterhawk]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE NUMBER OF PENALTIES WE COMMIT!!!! This has to do with the other team NOT being penalized.

It has EVERYTHING to do with the penalties called on the Seahawks = Penalties CALLED, AND ACCEPTED AGAINST THE SEAHAWKS (ALLOWED), especially if it takes points off the scoreboard; and it did.
It's not a disparity that our opponents have to navigate through in games where they face the "MORE PENALIZED" Seahawks.

 

[Cartire]

THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE NUMBER OF PENALTIES WE COMMIT!!!! This has to do with the other team NOT being penalized.

It has EVERYTHING to do with the penalties called on the Seahawks = Penalties CALLED, AND ACCEPTED AGAINST THE SEAHAWKS (ALLOWED), especially if it takes points off the scoreboard; and it did.
It's not a disparity that our opponents have to navigate through in games where they face the "MORE PENALIZED" Seahawks.

No. Just no. The argument here is not about us and the penalties we receive.

Its about a teams average penalties against every other team. And then we they play us. Thats it. The argument being laid out is not inferring about the relation of OUR penalties to that.

You are engaging in a separate argument, WHICH I TEND TO AGREE WITH, but nevertheless, deters from the original argument. If you want to correlate our penalties, you open us up to further scrutiny. Right now, the original argument for this thread is a solid stance against a biased view THATS NOT about the penalties we receive.

 

[scutterhawk]

So I just had a this conversation with Curtis Crabtree

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/540016988005736448[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/540019719802085377[/tweet]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Curtis_Crabtree/status/540023445367451648[/tweet]

Curtis is not impressed. I guess I see his point. While I obviously find this statistical anomaly rather curious, the conclusion can not be verified, and thus, this is just a bunch of numbers.

Call it a night boys.

Nope, just because Curtis Crabtree doesn't want to take bias against the Seahawks into account, doesn't mean it's not happening.
There's a booger in the bowl of rice, it's pretty damned hard to ignore.
There is a There...There.
Just because he believes that there should be no deviation from the focusing on the penalties committed by the Seahawks, doesn't dismiss the obvious bias an mistakes of the look the other way Referees.