My half informed totally arbitrary draft rankings

[kearly]

Five players I feel the safest about betting on:

Johnny Manziel
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
CJ Mosely
Marquise Lee

The best player I feel the most uncertain about:

Jadevon Clowney

The Philip Rivers award for the QB who comes out of nowhere but is actually pretty talented:

Blake Bortles

The player I personally think will probably bomb in the NFL but whom I still fully expect John Schneider to love:

Kelvin Benjamin

Most likely rookie RB to have 1000 rush yards in 2014:

Ka'Deem Carey. (Very similar prospect to Morris, Lacy).

Giovanni Bernard award for the flippin' awesome RB who flashes jaw dropping talent but doesn't get the rookie touches because his NFL coach is too old-school / dumb:

Bishop Sankey.

Tyler Wilson / Matt Barkley award for the day three "steal" QB who should never have lasted as long as he did, only to play like a UDFA in the NFL:

Tajh Boyd.

Kiko Alonso / Honey Badger award for the meh-tools prospect with great intangibles that has the best chance to make smart draft analysis look stupid:

Kyle Van Noy.

That one guy who would be so damn good if he wasn't lazy, overweight, short, and had T-Rex arms:

Will Sutton.

If I could pick one "realistic" Seahawks pick at #32 that I would avoid, it would be:

Cyril Richardson.

Most under-rated top 100 prospect:

ASJ.

 

[drdevin]

The one guy that I wouldn't bet a dollar on is Johnny Football. This kid is a GM's worst nightmare with a million character issues, slight frame and weak arm. He was taylor-made for college but his skillset won't translate to the pros. Smarts and maturity will be the biggest difference in JF and say a guy like Russell when it comes to success in life. One has it in spades and the other just has his daddy pull out the credit card to make his problems go away. That being said, I think SF should take him

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

Superb post.

 

[Jazzhawk]

Kip, that's one of my all-time favorite posts of yours. Do more like that. :^)

 

[HawkWow]

We just need ASJ to stay under rated 'til May. But dayum if he's sitting at 32 and we go elsewhere...I don't know. Such a move may just conclude my 14 draft viewing. I just saw a trailer as I type this and Mayock has ASJ the 2 TE coming out. IMO, that's still under rated.

I don't trust Manziel. Only because he's a such a gamer. Doesn't always show the responsibility to his team that a QB should...and I am referring only to his play on the field (the rest I don't worry about). Griffin was the same. He had that 'fight for that extra yard' mentality that dooms QBs. Wilson, unlike both, understands his responsibility to the team. His primary responsibility is to keep himself healthy. Love his play and Manziel needs to study Wilson hard.

I won't be stunned if Blake Bortles is the 1st QB off the board. Smart, physical specimen with the size most GMs still prefer. I'm not predicting he's the 1st...just that it wouldn't stun me.

Totally agree about Clowney. He will go higher than he deserves to go, wherever he goes. Sabotaging the coach and team that made him a household name...well, I'm not a fan. I actually hope he busts and aside from Griffin, I've seldom said that about a college football player. Ever.

Great post Kearly and like yourself, I hope you're wrong about the Bishop. Yes. I'm a homer...but you don't have to be a Dawg fan to love this kid and what he brings to the game. If sark did any of our players a solid, it was Sankey. Definitely let him prove he is an every down player.

 

[davidonmi]

Nice post, only one I'm not sure on is the Sankey one, Sankey is a workhorse who you can give 25 carries and works well in a zone blocking system. His speed and power aren't going to blow anyone away.
I've heard knowshon moreno, but who he reminds me personally of is frank gore, runs with great vision, and can fit through small holes and spaces you wonder how he did, at the same time having some big play potential

 

[ivotuk]

Five players I feel the safest about betting on:

Johnny Manziel
Sammy Watkins
Mike Evans
CJ Mosely
Marquise Lee

The best player I feel the most uncertain about:

Jadevon Clowney

The Philip Rivers award for the QB who comes out of nowhere but is actually pretty talented:

Blake Bortles

The player I personally think will probably bomb in the NFL but whom I still fully expect John Schneider to love:

Kelvin Benjamin

Most likely rookie RB to have 1000 rush yards in 2014:

Ka'Deem Carey. (Very similar prospect to Morris, Lacy).

Giovanni Bernard award for the flippin' awesome RB who flashes jaw dropping talent but doesn't get the rookie touches because his NFL coach is too old-school / dumb:

Bishop Sankey.

Tyler Wilson / Matt Barkley award for the day three "steal" QB who should never have lasted as long as he did, only to play like a UDFA in the NFL:

Tajh Boyd.

Kiko Alonso / Honey Badger award for the meh-tools prospect with great intangibles that has the best chance to make smart draft analysis look stupid:

Kyle Van Noy.

That one guy who would be so damn good if he wasn't lazy, overweight, short, and had T-Rex arms:

Will Sutton.

If I could pick one "realistic" Seahawks pick at #32 that I would avoid, it would be:

Cyril Richardson.

Most under-rated top 100 prospect:

ASJ.

Love it, well except for Cyril Richardson, not real up on the guy but what I do know, I hate.

 

[aawolf]

Great post and I agree with everything. I like Manzeil at any level--kid's a baller and will be a competent starter at the next level--surely worth a first round pick for QB needy teams. I also think Tajh Boyd is way too much under the radar--He will be a steal in the third round. I'm with you on Sammy Watkins as well--kid has speed, size, strength, and hands to make as close as you can get to a sure-fire starter at WR.

Who are your O-line sleepers? I think that's who the Hawks need most. Thanks.

 

[Scottemojo]

I love Kyle Van Noy. Instincts.
Sutton feels like half Suh, half Derrick Coleman.
Clowney isn't even 21 yet. Which is both an awesome thing about him, and the scariest. Remember Omobi Okoye?
I have to watch Bortles more. Is he Gabbert part 2 or Rivers part 2?
Tajh Boyd makes throws that drop my jaw. He also goes full on WTF about 3 times a game, leading me to wonder if he is remedial at reading defenses. IF he falls, it will be on decision making.

 

[kearly]

I love Kyle Van Noy. Instincts.

I think he's great as a LB or SS prospect. It's as a DE that has me shaking my head. His instincts and closing ability are pretty special, but he just doesn't have the build to hold the point of attack on the line. Even if he added weight, he's not squatty enough. But put him at ILB and he could be Kiko Alonso.

I have to watch Bortles more. Is he Gabbert part 2 or Rivers part 2?

Bortles lacks under-center experience. That said, his combination of size and running ability is very good, I'm shocked that seemingly nobody is talking him up as a read option QB. Put him in a read option offense that takes almost every snap from shotgun, give him an impact RB to hand off to, and watch him threaten RG3's rookie passer rating record.

It's true that Gabbert struggled moving to a typical under-center offense, but I think most of his problems originated from him being mentally fragile and easily intimidated. Bortles is pretty tough, reminds me of Jake Locker the way he runs (Locker was a very aggressive runner who tucked the ball tight into his chest, much like the way Doug Baldwin does). Except without the injuries. In the pocket he reminds me of Andrew Luck. Luck may be over-rated, but he is one of the toughest QBs in the pocket I've ever seen.

 

[kearly]

Great post Kearly and like yourself, I hope you're wrong about the Bishop. Yes. I'm a homer...but you don't have to be a Dawg fan to love this kid and what he brings to the game. If sark did any of our players a solid, it was Sankey. Definitely let him prove he is an every down player.

I just hope he gets an opportunity. I've seen some pretty good prospects get buried on NFL depth charts. Roy Helu had some of the best RB measurables ever and had a very good rookie season, and he got buried by the mediocre but highly productive Alfred Morris. And of course, we know the story with Chris Polk.

Mostly, I'm just bitter about Bernard. I made it a priority to have every Denver RB on my roster last year in fantasy, because I knew that once one of them got the nod as "the guy", he'd be a top 5 NFL fantasy back in that offense. I also made sure I nabbed Bernard, as I thought he had Ray Rice type talent coming out of college (Sankey is very similar as a prospect). Moreno has ONE good game and almost immediately he becomes a 20 touches a game guy. Meanwhile Bernard makes huge plays almost every week, including some games where he puts the team on his back with Barry Sanders type displays, and he still had to split carries all season with a sub-mediocre RB (The Lawfirm). I was biased, but I just hated seeing that. Since Sankey is very similar, I wouldn't be surprised if people worried about his workload the way Marvin Lewis did with Giovanni Bernard.

 

[kearly]

Great post and I agree with everything. I like Manzeil at any level--kid's a baller and will be a competent starter at the next level--surely worth a first round pick for QB needy teams. I also think Tajh Boyd is way too much under the radar--He will be a steal in the third round. I'm with you on Sammy Watkins as well--kid has speed, size, strength, and hands to make as close as you can get to a sure-fire starter at WR.

Who are your O-line sleepers? I think that's who the Hawks need most. Thanks.

Haven't really looked at OL yet. Cyrus Kouandjio from Alabama has great upside and could be a bargain when he's selected in the teens or twenties.

I love Tajh Boyd as a Seahawk. Perfect fit for our offense. Put him on the Jets though, and he's another Geno Smith. I think he will probably bust even though I like him. He needs to go to the right kind of team such as Sea, SF, KC, Philly, or maybe GB. Teams that don't need a starter and who have QB friendly systems.

If he slid all the way into the late rounds I'd be thrilled to see Seattle pick him up. I think he probably goes 3rd round though. The late round guy I'm pining for is Jordan Lynch, who's basically a better version of BJ Daniels. Both Daniels and Lynch remind me of Russell Wilson in several aspects of their respective games.

 

[aawolf]

Great post and I agree with everything. I like Manzeil at any level--kid's a baller and will be a competent starter at the next level--surely worth a first round pick for QB needy teams. I also think Tajh Boyd is way too much under the radar--He will be a steal in the third round. I'm with you on Sammy Watkins as well--kid has speed, size, strength, and hands to make as close as you can get to a sure-fire starter at WR.

Who are your O-line sleepers? I think that's who the Hawks need most. Thanks.

Haven't really looked at OL yet. Cyrus Kouandjio from Alabama has great upside and could be a bargain when he's selected in the teens or twenties.

I love Tajh Boyd as a Seahawk. Perfect fit for our offense. Put him on the Jets though, and he's another Geno Smith. I think he will probably bust even though I like him. He needs to go to the right kind of team such as Sea, SF, KC, Philly, or maybe GB. Teams that don't need a starter and who have QB friendly systems.

If he slid all the way into the late rounds I'd be thrilled to see Seattle pick him up. I think he probably goes 3rd round though. The late round guy I'm pining for is Jordan Lynch, who's basically a better version of BJ Daniels. Both Daniels and Lynch remind me of Russell Wilson in several aspects of their respective games.

I'll say this about Boyd--there is a reason why his WRs look so good. This guy throws a killer long ball that is accurate as can be. He was knocked this year because of laying an egg against FSU in a nationally televised game amongst much hype. But, look at his stats and see how dominant this guy was in college and he's more impressive than anyone in the draft at the QB position except Manziel. Outside of that FSU game, he consistently had a rating of 180+. He played in a much tougher conference than Bridgewater and Bortles, but still was as impressive.

Personally, I think he and Bridgewater are both great pro prospects with Bridgewater getting all the love.

 

[EverydayImRusselin]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap20...ock-11-draft-nuggets-entering-the-nfl-combine

Just thought you'd like to see that Mayock calls Sankey the next Bernard.

 

[kearly]

Very cool. I think Sankey is part Ray Rice, part Reggie Bush. But if I had to compare him to a single player, Bernard comes the closest.

 

[CPHawk]

SF will take slow ass ASJ, and he'll turn out just like all Jimmy's first round picks.

And Johnny Manziel reminds me of another Qb who was wildly successful as a college improv Qb and not the biggest guy around, Jake Plummer. As much as he wants to ride Russell's success, he's nothing like Wilson.

 

[Scottemojo]

Very cool. I think Sankey is part Ray Rice, part Reggie Bush. But if I had to compare him to a single player, Bernard comes the closest.

I think Sankey is going to be very good. I heard a great interview with him on Sirius the other day, the kid is bright. He is trying to get his weight up just a bit, I would guess up from his current 205 to that 210 threshold that somehow makes some front offices categorize as "every down back" which means more money. I hope he doesn't try to bulk up too much, that is a strategy that rarely seems to work out.

I doubt he runs that fast. I hope he can get close to 4.5, but a run like Arian Foster would not surprise me. Some zone blocking team is going to get a very good player.

 

[kearly]

I'm expecting 4.40 to 4.50 range for Sankey. Polk had a 4.52 at his combine and a 4.45 at his pro-day. Sankey is visibly faster than Polk was.

(I still can't believe Chris Polk didn't get drafted. Really amazing what a bad medical and worse interviews will do to a prospect.)

 

[HawkWow]

I'm expecting 4.40 to 4.50 range for Sankey. Polk had a 4.52 at his combine and a 4.45 at his pro-day. Sankey is visibly faster than Polk was.

(I still can't believe Chris Polk didn't get drafted. Really amazing what a bad medical and worse interviews will do to a prospect.)

I hear ya', Kearly. When the 3rd round ended, I was stunned Polk was still on the board. Then the 4th, the 5th...and I started thinking..wow, something got out on him that we were totally unaware of. Then I was like..well, hell...aside from the very (unusual and damned untimely) fumble, he sure looked himself in the Alamo. It was just very weird. I was begging for us to get him in but Philly got there.

My bro does sports out in Philly. Obviously I spoke highly of Polk and so he kept an eye on him. All I ever heard from this guy was "damn, you're right...why are we not getting this kid on the field more"? He was calling me from practices and saying things like..."bro...you would love to be standing here watching your boy...kid is for real. Everything he does, he does good". Then he made it a point to put Polk in the spotlight, constantly calling out the Philly coaching staff.

Problem was Brown and the schizo back that he is. Of all teams for Polk to get stuck with. Philly has a set of backs that could one of the best assembled....if not for the fumbling, that is.

I hate to call Bishop much better than Polk. They are just very different backs. Polk can go beastmode but Sankey reminds me a lot of Priest Holmes...if you guys remember Priest Holmes....even after the accolades, still one of the most under-rated, under appreciated backs in recent memory, IMO.

If I had my way, all things considered (character etc), I'd do my best to dump Michael for a pick that would get us Sankey....as unpopular as such commentary would make me, I'd stand behind it.

 

[TeamoftheCentury]

I love Kyle Van Noy. Instincts.

I think he's great as a LB or SS prospect. It's as a DE that has me shaking my head. His instincts and closing ability are pretty special, but he just doesn't have the build to hold the point of attack on the line. Even if he added weight, he's not squatty enough. But put him at ILB and he could be Kiko Alonso.

I have to watch Bortles more. Is he Gabbert part 2 or Rivers part 2?

Bortles lacks under-center experience. That said, his combination of size and running ability is very good, I'm shocked that seemingly nobody is talking him up as a read option QB. Put him in a read option offense that takes almost every snap from shotgun, give him an impact RB to hand off to, and watch him threaten RG3's rookie passer rating record.

It's true that Gabbert struggled moving to a typical under-center offense, but I think most of his problems originated from him being mentally fragile and easily intimidated. Bortles is pretty tough, reminds me of Jake Locker the way he runs (Locker was a very aggressive runner who tucked the ball tight into his chest, much like the way Doug Baldwin does). Except without the injuries. In the pocket he reminds me of Andrew Luck. Luck may be over-rated, but he is one of the toughest QBs in the pocket I've ever seen.

Bortles has been compared to Ben Roethlisberger. I think Brock Huard may have even made that comparison during a broadcast this season. I don't see the comparison to Rivers or Gabbert.