If I told you that going into week 15...

[skater18000]

We would have a...

5% chance of being the 1st seed

20% chance at the 2nd seed

About a 60% chance of winning the division. (Meaning we we would take any seed from 2 to 4 and get a first round home game)

And about an 85% chance of making the playoffs as a whole.

And the best thing about it, is we're most likely finishing at 10 - 6 and possibly 11 - 5 which is f***ing incredible

With a rookie QB, Its crazy. I love Tjack and everything but their is a huge difference between him and Russ... (obviously but more in the teams overall play) Just shows THE QUARTERBACK IS EVERYTHING IN THE NFL

 

[onanygivensunday]

It's been a great year... and I'm enjoying the hell out of it.

And yes, the QB is EVERYTHING... and we finally have out QBOTF... FINALLY.

 

[therealjohncarlson]

60% chance of winning the division? Make that 35% and you have a more accurate reading

 

[skater18000]

It's been a great year... and I'm enjoying the hell out of it.

And yes, the QB is EVERYTHING... and we finally have out QBOTF... FINALLY.

Uh amen... Go Hawks

:0190l: :thirishdrinkers: :0190l:

 

[skater18000]

60% chance of winning the division? Make that 35% and you have a more accurate reading

So we're going to lose @ bills or home vs 49ers and rams... please the bills are bad and we suck if we can't beat them anyway and we ain't losing at home...

The 49ers are lined up 2 get killed by the patriots next week, their is no way in hell the 49ers are within 10 points of the patriots.

The way I see it we will play the 49ers @ the CLINK for the nfc west championship... Still have 2 finish business @ home vs rams.

I'm so yes the real john carlson, I'm banking on statistics saying the patriots are going to win (95%)

And the Seahawks have a 70% chance against the 49ers

And of course their is a chance we lose to the bills about 20% and the rams are about 20% how do you come up with 35%? Seahawks @bills, Seahawks vs 49ers and rams... and the rams have @ patriots Seahawks and home vs cards (can't count on Them for s**t)

 

[MeenReen]

Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter.

 

[skater18000]

Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter.

Week 16?

 

[MeenReen]

I responded too soon.. If you are going by your predictions (95% for the Pats to win, are you serious? - You couldn't even say that for the best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league), then you are right in predicting over 60% for us to win, but c'mon man. Look up how probability is calculated. Things are compounded because both probabilities have to come true for the end goal to happen.

 

[MeenReen]

Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter.

Week 16?

No, I meant week 17. Week 16 will obviously matter if we win against the Bills and SF loses to NE, which is entirely possible. That would put us .5 games in the lead, correct (if we beat SF)?

 

[skater18000]

I responded too soon.. If you are going by your predictions (95% for the Pats to win, are you serious? - You couldn't even say that for the best team in the league vs. the worst team in the league), then you are right in predicting over 60% for us to win, but c'mon man. Look up how probability is calculated. Things are compounded because both probabilities have to come true for the end goal to happen.

Call me crazy I said the patriots were going to blow out the Texans with that same 95% probability and sure enough... but the Seahawks vs 49ers is clearly upwards of at least 55% Seahawks so...

 

[skater18000]

Yeah, man, 60% is chance is a homer prediction. Best case scenario, we are probably at like a 2/3 chance to beat Buffalo this week(on the road against a potentially explosive offense), and 50/50 to beat SF. SF has probably like 1/4 chance to beat NE on the road, and a 50/50 chance against us. Best case scenario, we are at like .333 to be in position for week 17 to matter.

Week 16?

No, I meant week 17. Week 16 will obviously matter if we win against the Bills and SF loses to NE, which is entirely possible. That would put us .5 games in the lead, correct (if we beat SF)?

Missing the point

Week 15: @ bills

Week 16 vs 49ers

Week 17 vs rams

We play the rams in week 17

 

[MeenReen]

Buddy, I get that. You were the one that started the thread based on probability. So don't state that the STL game is a gimme (there is no such thing). Even if we beat Buffalo AND SF, and SF loses to both of us, that puts SF at 9-5-1 and us at 10-5. That puts week 17 in to play. If they were to win in week 17, and us to lose, they go to 10-5-1 and we go to 10-6.

 

[harmonized1]

100% chance of making the playoffs and 100% chance of beating some ass!

 

[rideaducati]

You had me right up to the point that you told me you love T Jack. Personally, I love that he is GONE.

 

[dunceface]

Math is stupid GO HAWKS!

 

[The Radish]

I'm not sure about SF being so much better than the Pats.

The Patriots hate being bullied on the field. That's why they wound up losing to us and losing a past SB. San Francisco is as capable of knocking the snot out of a team as we are and very capable of beating New England at New England.

I'm thinkin they have slid a bit recently and want to show the rest of the league they are still at least in the top 10 of the NFL.

:les:

 

[hidn]

So I did some quick number crunching for the people who actually care.

Chance of winning division:
Niners (9-3-1) (4-2 on road) @ Patriots (10-3) (5-1 at home):

Winning differential: 6.8% Patriots
Road vs Home differential: 17% Patriots
Adjusted Winning Differential: 10.2%

Odds: 60.2% chance of Patriots win

Seahawks @ Bills:
Seahawks (8-5) (2-5 on road) @ Bills (5-8) (3-3 at home):

Winning differential: 22.6% Seattle
Road vs Home differential: 22% Bills
Adjusted Winning Differential: .3% Seattle

Odds: 50.3% chance of Seahawks win


Niners (9-3-1) (4-2 on road) @ Seahawks (8-5) (6-0 at home):
Winning differential: 8.2% diff Niners
Road vs Home differential: 34% diff Sseahawks
Adjusted Winning differential: 8.8% Seahawks

Odds: 58.8% chance of Seahawks win

Rams (6-6-1) (2-3-1) @ Seahawks (8-5) (6-0 at home):
Winning differential: 14.9% Seahawks
Road vs Home differential: 67% Seahawks
Adjusted Winning differential: 40.9% Seahawks

Odds: 90.9% chance of Seahawks win


If you multiply all of these odds you end up with a 16.18% chance of winning the division.

 

[hidn]

I do admit that that odd might be a little low since the 49ers do play Arizona at home, I just think that the chance of arizona winning is around 0% so I didn't spend the time to calculate it.

 

[formido]

Football Outsiders has the odds of Seattle getting various playoff seeds based on the rest of the schedule and their DVOA rating system (best in the biz in my mind). Before last week's game they had our odds of winning the division at 32%. It hasn't been updated yet, but Seattle's and NE's DVOAs will be higher after their decisive wins this last weekend, so Seattle's odds may have improved a little.

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds