How I familiarize myself with a draft class

[Maelstrom787]

NOTE: This isn't a real mock by me. Not entirely, anyway. Just a study exercise.







The best way, for me, is to just run the draft. Control all 32 teams, pull up their rosters in other tabs to determine needs, and then select a player based on what I know from the tendencies of each front office. Yes, the above draft has several obviously silly choices. Part of the learning process. Just run it a few times. You'll familiarize yourself with both the needs of each team as well as the available prospects at each juncture.

This is how I do it. I haven't been nearly as involved with the draft process as I usually am. It usually takes up most of my thoughts for 3 months straight. This year, I'm speed-running the studying process and cramming as much as I can.

 

[Chukarhawk]

damn, that's a lot of work looking at every team.

 

[CPHawk]

Except the Chargers literally have zero WR right now. Seems like a huge risk to trade down and get basically nothing in return, and then to take CB.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Except the Chargers literally have zero WR right now. Seems like a huge risk to trade down and get basically nothing in return, and then to take CB.

NOTE: This isn't a real mock by me. Not entirely, anyway. Just a study exercise.

Yes, the above draft has several obviously silly choices. Part of the learning process.

Although, to be fair, that "basically nothing" included the Raiders 1st and 3rd rounder next year IIRC, as well as 44 where they took Roman Wilson. Not an oversight I made too lightly, but not really a mock designed for realism.

 

[AgentDib]

Except the Chargers literally have zero WR right now. Seems like a huge risk to trade down and get basically nothing in return, and then to take CB.

That's entirely plausible in my view due to the uncertainty in draft outcomes. It's counter intuitive, but the increased selections from trading down can be the best way of plugging holes because you can take more shots at them.

Scouts are not statisticians and are not well equipped to discuss unpredictability other than in vague terms. If they could, however, then they would forecast the NFL production of these prospects in terms of probability distributions, perhaps something like the following chart. In this example, given perfect information, every scout would agree that Nabers is the better prospect because his distribution is higher than Wilson's at every single point (pareto superior). Naber's expected outcome (dotted lines) must also be better, and is.



One key point here is how broad the distributions are. There are promising rookies like McDowell who get injured and never produce a thing, and then late round picks who go on to be considered the greatest player ever. The result is a lot of overlap between the two distributions, and that results in a decent chance here that Wilson will end up beating the odds to have the better career.

The other key point is that information is not perfect, and so that above chart could be completely wrong and/or completely different based on each front office's opinion. Add in all the other uncertainties (medical, legal, personality, scheme/football IQ) and trading down only looks more attractive.

 

[Chevy]

Using multiple mock draft simulators is a good way to get to know prospects late in the draft process. Knowing other team needs, draft tendencies, free agent signings, free agent losses, is not for the late draft fans. But for those that like to follow prospects throughout the year, there are a lot of additional other ways to find prospects.

 

[Maelstrom787]

Except the Chargers literally have zero WR right now. Seems like a huge risk to trade down and get basically nothing in return, and then to take CB.

Well, looks like we were both wrong then

 

[CPHawk]

Well, looks like we were both wrong then

I guess they will just do QB runs all day. No RB it WRs

 

[Maelstrom787]

I guess they will just do QB runs all day. No RB it WRs

Yeah, kinda crazy. I would've taken Nabers all day.

 

[Maelstrom787]

I... I don't know why I always know what the Bengals are going to do, but I always seem to get the Bengals picks right

Never Seattle's though, ever