Great Matt Waldman article on Wilson/Gabbert/Glennon

[kearly]

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/03/21/mi ... sp-mashup/

I thought this part was right on the money as well:

It’s easy to tell the difference between the average football fan and the guy who grinds tape. The average fan behaves as if he’s a football genius. The average tape grinder knows he’s a football idiot. He also can explain why in great detail.

Part of adopting a student mindset is having the willingness to accept that you’ll be wrong a lot. Learning requires the ability to accept your errors.

I recently wrote an article about this topic. The subject was an accounting professor whose award-winning research was recently cited in Forbes. Her study dealt with the concept of cognitive dissonance in investing.

What she discovered is that people tend to make emotional choices once they commit to a decision. Moreover, it doesn’t matter if they are an expert in their field. If they’ve taken a stance, they defend that stance even if presented with evidence to the contrary.

In fact, they will seek analysis from sources that aren’t even as credible as the information presented to them in order to get validation that they made a good choice, even if the result eventually says otherwise.

In essence, we stand by our decisions to placate our egos because it’s often more important for us to be perceived as experts than behave like them. The sad, but comical thing about this is that we all do it if we make a decision before we fully weigh the evidence. I have no problem admitting I do it. The only real cure for this problem is having insight – and that’s a topic for another time…

Hopefully this will help you shed your football-genius innocence and become a student of the game.

The more you learn, the more you realize how little you know.

FWIW, I also had Gabbert #1 in 2011, and had Wilson #3 in 2012.

 

[Scottemojo]

FWIW, I hated Gabbert. I could not figure out how a spread QB had only 17touchdowns and just knew people were in love with his prototype build.

But what sealed my disdain for Gabbert was an interview, and interview that I eerily recently heard repeated by Ryan Nassib. I probably read too much into this stuff, but both guys gave just happy to get drafted by an NFL team, in any round, just want to play in the NFL type of interview leading up to the draft.

I contrast that to Peyton Manning telling GM's if they passed on him he would spend the rest of his career kicking their asses.
Matt Hasselbeck had that same competitive streak and wore his late round slight from Mel Kiper on his sleeve.
Russell Wilson is all smiles, but inside he is always proving everyone who ever said anything about him wrong. When he says his height does not define his skillset, he sounds a bit angry.
Steve Young was pissed as hell that he had to sit behind Joe Montana. He thought he was better.
Tom Brady, in his redshirt rookie year, told Bob Kraft that taking him in the 6th would be the best decision he ever made. Kraft didnt even know who he was. But the dude was driven.

When I don't get that type A vibe, I get concerned a QB is not right.

 

[kearly]

Funny that you compare Gabbert to Nassib. Waldman's reaction on twitter to Cosell having Nassib #1 was essentially "Nassib is the 'color within the lines' favorite." Gabbert was a "color within the lines" guy too.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Had Wilson #1 ....

 

[Scottemojo]

As for coloring within the lines, I had Tannehill as my guy last year. I am no innocent. And I dismissed Wilson on his height. I wasn't regurgitating punditry either, I didn't think a shorty could do it.

 

[aawolf]

Back when Russell Wilson was told not to come back to NC State after he had opted to go play minor league baseball during spring practice, there was a plethora of Glennon/Wilson comparasons on NC State boards at the time. The concensus was that Wilson was the best option at QB for his last year, but he had been told by the coach (O'Brien) that if he opted to go play baseball after he was drafted, he was not coming back; and if Wilson was allowed to come back, then the understanding was that Glennon, who had been waiting for 3 years at that point behind him, would transfer and take his two years of eligibility with him. Wilson, while the better option at QB, only had one year left of eligibility. Wilson was released by NC State among much controversy. But, its interesting that all the arguments for giving Glennnon a shot and releasing Wilson are the same as the draftniks are saying about Glennon now, with his prototypical QB hight and arm strength. Clearly, Glennon was the better "prospect" at the time and as great as Wilson was, he couldn't get us to a title (NC State was not a national title contender or an ACC title contender (didn't play in an ACC championship) while Wilson was there). I saw Glennon as the better option at the time because of his two years of eligibility and the fact that Wilson had missed a lot of practice before he asked to come back. In retrospect, I was wrong because Wilson would have probably gotten us over the mountain in his last year and Glennon, with all his potential, was not the natural leader and great decision maker that Wilson was. There is no debate that Wilson was one of the greatest QBs ever at NC State and that most everyone hoped he would succeed whereever he ended up. Thats why I'm here on a Seahawks message board and why I've changed my allegience to this team--because I'm such a Wilson fan.

 

[Rat]

I still think Gabbert is going to make a lot of people look stupid. I said during that draft that the Cards, Redskins, Raiders, and Titans would all regret not taking him. Maybe the Redskins won't (although I'd take Gabbert and 3 #1's over RG3), but those others will.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

I agree with Waldman completely. I'm definitely a football idiot. I barely know anything deep about the game. And yet I probably spend all my free time watching games or videos. I read an interview with Bruce Arians yesterday where he made some extremely technical points and I didn't know half of what he was talking about. That's a major reality check. This is the most technically complex sport I've ever come across, and I've worked with a view different ones. It's part of the appeal. Yet watching a lot of it isn't half humbling.

I've had some titanic gaffe's when it comes to the draft and projections, but also had several hits too. I think most people are the same. No point trying to argue otherwise.

 

[pehawk]

I agree with Waldman completely. I'm definitely a football idiot. I barely know anything deep about the game.

Odds one of the countless members whose feathers you've ruffled using the above as a sig; currently 8-1.

And, EEEEWWWWW, WTF Rat? Really? You like that tranny methhead, Gabbert? Just EWWWWW! I respect your opinion, but man.

Tannehill will be just fine. He's just VERY dumb. Like, killing puppies accidently, dumb. I could see him being guy that wins zero, but racks up major yards. Seems like the right franchise drafted him.

Nassib is horrific, IMO.

 

[theENGLISHseahawk]

I agree with Waldman completely. I'm definitely a football idiot. I barely know anything deep about the game.

Odds one of the countless members whose feathers you've ruffled using the above as a sig; currently 8-1.

Let them. I've got nothing to protect.

I'm a complete amateur who loves a bit of football, enjoys writing about the draft and having the occasional joust on here.

 

[kearly]

I think it's good to keep a humble mindset about ANYTHING. Sometimes I catch myself not being humble and I have to remind myself of where I stand on the totem pole. If you have a humble mindset, you'll be more open to improvement, and be more able to shift to a correct opinion when faced with proof that your initial analysis was wrong.

 

[Hawks46]

"The more you learn, the more you realize how little you know"

You speak some serious truth Kearly. I used to think I was a pretty damn bright football guy. After getting in depth on it, and reading some of the more educated posts on here, I realized I'm sure not. I have a real good grasp of the general concepts, strategy, personnel fits, and some experience with hands on player technique. But when it comes to the real X's and O's, breakdown of certain coverages, route trees, audibles, etc. I realize I'm not as smart/educated on the subject as I thought I was.

As for your post English, I know we've disagreed at times, but seriously man....the draft has to be one the most inexact sciences I've ever seen. Don't beat yourself up too much on it. In scouting these guys, we're (I say "we're" as a collective, I don't scout) betting on humans, who are among the most complex things on the planet. There are way too many variables and input to consider: how guys react to higher competition (and getting humbled), work ethic, leadership, sudden wealth, and fame. You also can't account for injuries - they're totally random. You can get guys that get nagging injuries, play through it, and it turns into something more serious. You can get a serious injury....just because you get surgery doesn't mean you always come back 100%. All those things are completely random.

My theory is that intangibles are probably the most important thing for a QB. It's almost impossible to gauge intangibles unless you're Russell Wilson and they literally scream at you and slam you in the face. Look at Gabbert. A lot of guys had him the top guy in that draft. Then it comes out that he blames everyone else and "never makes mistakes" and his nickname is "Blame" Gabbert. In any walk of life, if you don't make mistakes, you don't learn from them. If you don't learn from mistakes, you don't grow. Everyone makes mistakes. None of this came out prior to the draft (that I read about).

The short of it is, when I start to think I know a lot about football, I remind myself I'm not getting paid to make football decisions of any sort. That's humbling enough as it is.

 

[scutterhawk]

Bahhh!, I think yer all crazy, and over thinkin how the game is played.
All a Quarterback has to do is run around behind the really big dudes on the LOS, and then chuck the ball down field to one of his players, and hope that some Defensive player on the other side doesn't steal the ball.