Graham's dominance in OTA's is probably not an accident

[kearly]

If you've listened to Seattle radio at all, you've probably heard about how Jimmy Graham has been a monster in the red zone during OTAs. Now, there's offseason fluff, but something about this case is a bit unusual, with observers like Brock Huard and John Clayton saying this is something akin to a once in a decade event in terms of OTA dominance.

Even PFT recently ran a story last week about how Graham was "unstoppable" in practices. According to the report, "every time" Seattle's practice defense went 1 on 1 with Graham, Wilson passed to Graham, almost always for a completion or TD.

Now of course, this is OTA activities, and it's 7 on 7 non-contact, and it's Jimmy Graham. This is like putting Nelson Cruz in Coors field while hitting the ball off a tee. The degree of dominance may be remarkable, but the dominance itself is to be expected.

The dominance isn't really the interesting part to me. The interesting part is that Wilson missed OTAs to be with Graham at a funeral, that he's practically stalked Graham every day trying to become his BFF with texts and correspondences to a degree that seems above and beyond even for Wilson, and that every time Graham is getting a 1 on 1, the ball is going to him almost automatically.

I guess in a cynical way, I hear about Graham's extraordinary OTA dominance and my mind immediately leaps to the guy who's getting him the ball. The guy that in previous years had spread the football almost to a fault. Now, he's going to Graham pretty much every time he isn't double covered.

And all of this is going on while Wilson's agent is doing his best Scot Boras impersonation. Hmmm...

Now it's OTAs, and it makes sense that Wilson would throw to Graham a bit extra just to build some rapport. But the fact that Wilson seems to almost be forcing the ball to Graham so emphatically to me suggests that Wilson thinks Graham could be his ticket to an MVP award in 2015. After all, look at how much Graham elevated Drew Brees, a QB with some similarities to Wilson. How pissed off was Brees when he heard that Graham was traded? And how much would Wilson's asking price go up in 2016 if he's still unsigned and coming off an MVP season?

This will probably be a good thing, unless you have a phobia of Wilson being the NFL's highest paid QB some day.

 

[Lords of Scythia]

It's happening because JG's the new guy and they need to build a rapport. The rest of the recievers have worked with Wilson for years. I think the Hawks are shifting to a more passing offense this season, not just indicated by getting Graham, but all the offensive players taken in the draft. We seriously brought an injection of talent into the offensive line--formerly the weakest element. Lynch needs a break. Wilson will pass more this year.
GO HAWKS!

 

[HawkFan72]

At least if he won MVP it would shut up the people he say he isn't "elite".

 

[hawknation2015]

This will probably be a good thing, unless you have a phobia of Wilson being the NFL's highest paid QB some day.

If and when that happens, it will be interesting to see how long they will be able to afford to keep Graham. After this season, there is no dead money hit if they had to release him.

 

[Chukarhawk]

He was dominating the 2nd team defense. Not the LOB.

 

[jdemps]

Lot of truth there, Kearly. Over the first 10 years of Drew Brees's Career (20010-2010), his TD high mark was 34 per season, which includes JG's first season when he only played 254 snaps (5 TDs). The next 3 years, Brees averages ~43 TD's a year with 12/year going to Graham. Even in a bad year (last year), JG's good for 10 TDs (if healthy obviously).

Russ has been good for 26-30 TDs/year (rushing and passing combined), which, out of context, are very pedestrian numbers. Cam Newton has averaged 28 TDs/ year. Luck's been good for almost 33/year (mostly this year). I don't know that Russ can be MVP with Marshawn healthy, because he won't have to carry the team with any frequency. He'll have a better statistical year, but I'm not sure he'll outshine the Rodgers and Mannings of the league with the running game we have. That being said, if he throws/ rushes for 35 TDs this year (well within the realm of possibility considering the influx of talent we've have/ have been developing), this will push him into the top 5 at QB where he can demand top 5 money. Developing the JG rapport could be the difference between Cam Newton numbers and Aaron Rodgers numbers. I think we'll sign him sooner rather than later to prevent this from happening.

 

[AROS]

...But the fact that Wilson seems to almost be forcing the ball to Graham so emphatically to me suggests that Wilson thinks Graham could be his ticket to an MVP award in 2015. After all, look at how much Graham elevated Drew Brees, a QB with some similarities to Wilson. How pissed off was Brees when he heard that Graham was traded? And how much would Wilson's asking price go up in 2016 if he's still unsigned and coming off an MVP season?

I see what you are saying but I honestly do not believe that is in Wilson's mindset right now. Maybe you are right and I am being naive but my money leans towards it being as simple as Wilson wanting to develop that timing and learning those tendencies to best utilize Graham's obvious talents which ultimately makes our offense all the more potent.

I honestly think Wilson is driven to be the best QB in the NFL (he's even said in the history of the NFL) and while that actually seems to favor your argument, he gives me the impression that he is one sincere human being that just wants the entire team to be as successful as possible.

The money will come. The fat contract will be there whether it's next month or in a year. Maybe my Man Crush has blinded me to the simple, human nature aspect of him but he has me sold that his motives aren't notoriety/money based.

It's proving to his team that he will do anything it takes to win more championships and it's proving to his father that he will be one of the greatest of all time.

 

[Scottemojo]

No Lynch at OTA. No real contact allowed, so the OL and DL are dancing, not playing football. It wouldn't make sense to focus the offense on guys who already know the system, so Graham getting a lot of extra focus is not a surprise at all.

I would chalk his OTA dominance up to pretty much those things.

Could Wilson get paid because of Jimmy? Sure. It didn't hurt Brees pocketbook to throw to Graham. But I really doubt it is more than the staff focusing on integrating him into offense at a time when running the ball is not really helpful. Truth is, the red zone run game should improve dramatically with the threat of Graham, but OTAs are no time to install that stuff.

OTA's, to me, are a time for the staff to look at the roster and see if they have what they think they had. New England went and signed another corner after OTA workouts. Didn't really like what they were seeing.

 

[theincrediblesok]

I stated many times that when Brady had Gronk he averages 33 TD a season (Including the season Gronk only played in 7 games in 2013). Before Gronk he averaged 28 TD a season and that's including one year where he had a loaded team with 50TD for that 2007 season. Graham will be a TD machine for Wilson and Wilson will finally get his 30+TD passing for the season.

 

[hawkfan68]

If you've listened to Seattle radio at all, you've probably heard about how Jimmy Graham has been a monster in the red zone during OTAs. Now, there's offseason fluff, but something about this case is a bit unusual, with observers like Brock Huard and John Clayton saying this is something akin to a once in a decade event in terms of OTA dominance.

Even PFT recently ran a story last week about how Graham was "unstoppable" in practices. According to the report, "every time" Seattle's practice defense went 1 on 1 with Graham, Wilson passed to Graham, almost always for a completion or TD.

Now of course, this is OTA activities, and it's 7 on 7 non-contact, and it's Jimmy Graham. This is like putting Nelson Cruz in Coors field while hitting the ball off a tee. The degree of dominance may be remarkable, but the dominance itself is to be expected.

The dominance isn't really the interesting part to me. The interesting part is that Wilson missed OTAs to be with Graham at a funeral, that he's practically stalked Graham every day trying to become his BFF with texts and correspondences to a degree that seems above and beyond even for Wilson, and that every time Graham is getting a 1 on 1, the ball is going to him almost automatically.

I guess in a cynical way, I hear about Graham's extraordinary OTA dominance and my mind immediately leaps to the guy who's getting him the ball. The guy that in previous years had spread the football almost to a fault. Now, he's going to Graham pretty much every time he isn't double covered.

And all of this is going on while Wilson's agent is doing his best Scot Boras impersonation. Hmmm...

Now it's OTAs, and it makes sense that Wilson would throw to Graham a bit extra just to build some rapport. But the fact that Wilson seems to almost be forcing the ball to Graham so emphatically to me suggests that Wilson thinks Graham could be his ticket to an MVP award in 2015. After all, look at how much Graham elevated Drew Brees, a QB with some similarities to Wilson. How pissed off was Brees when he heard that Graham was traded? And how much would Wilson's asking price go up in 2016 if he's still unsigned and coming off an MVP season?

This will probably be a good thing, unless you have a phobia of Wilson being the NFL's highest paid QB some day.

Great post. However, I believe that Brees elevated Graham. Brees was already a pro bowl QB before Graham even entered the league. Graham definitely helped Brees. Because of the experience Graham gained with Brees, Graham is going to be more valuable for Wilson and Wilson's development. All things are great. If Wilson becomes better, then it helps the Seahawks that much more.

 

[theincrediblesok]

...But the fact that Wilson seems to almost be forcing the ball to Graham so emphatically to me suggests that Wilson thinks Graham could be his ticket to an MVP award in 2015. After all, look at how much Graham elevated Drew Brees, a QB with some similarities to Wilson. How pissed off was Brees when he heard that Graham was traded? And how much would Wilson's asking price go up in 2016 if he's still unsigned and coming off an MVP season?

I see what you are saying but I honestly do not believe that is in Wilson's mindset right now. Maybe you are right and I am being naive but my money leans towards it being as simple as Wilson wanting to develop that timing and learning those tendencies to best utilize Graham's obvious talents which ultimately makes our offense all the more potent.

I honestly think Wilson is driven to be the best QB in the NFL (he's even said in the history of the NFL) and while that actually seems to favor your argument, he gives me the impression that he is one sincere human being that just wants the entire team to be as successful as possible.

The money will come. The fat contract will be there whether it's next month or in a year. Maybe my Man Crush has blinded me to the simple, human nature aspect of him but he has me sold that his motives aren't notoriety/money based.

It's proving to his team that he will do anything it takes to win more championships and it's proving to his father that he will be one of the greatest of all time.

I feel the same way as well. He was roommates with Robert Turbin and Turbin use to say that Wilson would be up all night just studying tape, while he was trying to sleep, and that they always talked about trying to achieve their goals of playing their best. To top it off Wilson and Tate were really good friends even their wives were friends of each other. Wilson and Tate had a good relationship that translated into the field. I see the same thing with Jimmy.

 

[pmedic920]

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy things are going as they are.

Kip points out an important aspect. NO CONTACT.
IMHO, contact is the best way to defend JG. It's no surprise to me (without contact) he is kicking butt.
GoHawks :{)

 

[rideaducati]

If you got it, flaunt it. Russell is playing with his new toy and hopefully his new toy continues to give him happiness. I've read a bit about Matthews getting Russell's attention too, but since he is a relative unknown, he doesn't garner the attention from the media.

Jimmy Graham is one of the best TEs in the NFL and he now plays for the Seahawks. Russell knows he now has one of the best TEs in the NFL and knows it would be silly to go to his third rate WR corps when he now has a much better option in the red zone.

Russell isn't going anywhere anytime soon and his agent can huff and puff and threaten to blow the house down all he wants and Russell will still be a Seahawk and his client will be playing without a guaranteed contract for at least three seasons. Soon, Russell's agent will figure out that Russell's best interest will be to have a long term contract that has a bunch of money guaranteed. It's not like the Seahawks are trying to get Russell for $8 million per season. They have offered a fair contract. I think it would be silly for Russell's agent to get his client to try to get to free agency. It makes much more sense to believe that Russell could cash in on his next two contracts, because that is what Russell will have a chance to do.

The Seahawks have 45 players signed through next season and will have approximately $40 million in cap space next season to use to fill out their roster. Besides Russell and Wags, does anyone see anyone on this list of free agents next year that the Seahawks can't live without?

PLAYER (34) POS. AGE FROM TO 2015 CAP HIT STATUS
Russell Okung LT 27 SEA TBD $7,280,000 UFA
Brandon Mebane DT 30 SEA TBD $5,700,000 UFA
Tony McDaniel DT 30 SEA TBD $3,625,000 UFA
Bruce Irvin OLB 25 SEA TBD $2,895,542 UFA
Ahtyba Rubin DT 28 SEA TBD $2,553,125 UFA
Jermaine Kearse WR 25 SEA TBD $2,356,000 UFA
Russell Wilson QB 26 SEA TBD $1,696,868 UFA
J.R. Sweezy G 26 SEA TBD $1,556,212 UFA
Jon Ryan P 33 SEA TBD $1,500,000 UFA
Bobby Wagner ILB 24 SEA TBD $1,370,663 UFA
Michael Morgan OLB 27 SEA TBD $1,000,000 UFA
Greg Scruggs DE 24 SEA TBD $785,000 UFA
Robert Turbin RB 25 SEA TBD $774,114 UFA
Anthony McCoy TE 27 SEA TBD $735,000 UFA
Jeremy Lane CB 24 SEA TBD $691,279 UFA
Will Tukuafu FB 31 SEA TBD $665,000 UFA
Will Blackmon CB 30 SEA TBD $665,000 UFA
Lemuel Jeanpierre C 28 SEA TBD $665,000 UFA
Demarcus Dobbs DE 27 SEA TBD $665,000 UFA
Deshawn Shead S 26 SEA TBD $660,000 UFA
Ricardo Lockette WR 29 SEA TBD $660,000 UFA
D'Anthony Smith DT 26 SEA TBD $635,000 UFA
Alvin Bailey G 23 SEA TBD $587,000 RFA
Derrick Coleman FB 24 SEA TBD $585,000 RFA
Patrick Lewis C 24 SEA TBD $585,000 RFA
Mister Alexander LB 27 SEA TBD $585,000 RFA
Keavon Milton TE 24 SEA TBD $510,000 RFA
Cooper Helfet TE 26 SEA TBD $510,000 RFA
Marcus Burley CB 24 SEA TBD $510,000 ERFA
David King DE 25 SEA TBD $510,000 ERFA
Chris Matthews WR 25 SEA TBD $510,000 ERFA
Steven Terrell S 24 SEA TBD $510,000 ERFA
Jesse Williams DT 24 SEA TBD $435,000 ERFA
Kona Schwenke DT 23 SEA TBD $435,000 ERFA

I know I'm all over the place with this post...I blame inebriation.

Edit: I took the time to space all those names and numbers out and they still crunched together. I don't know what I did wrong.

 

[ctrcat]

Lot of truth there, Kearly. Over the first 10 years of Drew Brees's Career (20010-2010), his TD high mark was 34 per season, which includes JG's first season when he only played 254 snaps (5 TDs). The next 3 years, Brees averages ~43 TD's a year with 12/year going to Graham. Even in a bad year (last year), JG's good for 10 TDs (if healthy obviously).

Russ has been good for 26-30 TDs/year (rushing and passing combined), which, out of context, are very pedestrian numbers. Cam Newton has averaged 28 TDs/ year. Luck's been good for almost 33/year (mostly this year). I don't know that Russ can be MVP with Marshawn healthy, because he won't have to carry the team with any frequency. He'll have a better statistical year, but I'm not sure he'll outshine the Rodgers and Mannings of the league with the running game we have. That being said, if he throws/ rushes for 35 TDs this year (well within the realm of possibility considering the influx of talent we've have/ have been developing), this will push him into the top 5 at QB where he can demand top 5 money. Developing the JG rapport could be the difference between Cam Newton numbers and Aaron Rodgers numbers. I think we'll sign him sooner rather than later to prevent this from happening.

The debate on how important weapons and protection are for QBs will continue as long as there is pigskin, but Cam had 35 TDs right out of the gate with no offseason post lockout. The difference? A revived Steve Smith that had had some AWFUL QB play and an (antiques road show version) of Jeremy Shockey, but Jeremy Shockey nonetheless with Olsen and Jordan Gross protecting the blind side.

With Funchess and at least a mild upgrade @LT with Oher and a healthy Cam, I expect those numbers to increase this year.

 

[kearly]

No Lynch at OTA. No real contact allowed, so the OL and DL are dancing, not playing football. It wouldn't make sense to focus the offense on guys who already know the system, so Graham getting a lot of extra focus is not a surprise at all.

I would chalk his OTA dominance up to pretty much those things.

Could Wilson get paid because of Jimmy? Sure. It didn't hurt Brees pocketbook to throw to Graham. But I really doubt it is more than the staff focusing on integrating him into offense at a time when running the ball is not really helpful. Truth is, the red zone run game should improve dramatically with the threat of Graham, but OTAs are no time to install that stuff.

OTA's, to me, are a time for the staff to look at the roster and see if they have what they think they had. New England went and signed another corner after OTA workouts. Didn't really like what they were seeing.

Of course. Like I said, this is like putting the ball on a tee for Graham. The dominance is not surprising. The extra targets are not surprising.

What is surprising is the extreme nature of it. Guys like Brock and Clayton both saying it's basically unlike anything they've seen in OTAs in a very long time. These guys have been at OTAs for years and years. (And btw, when was the last time Lynch didn't skip OTAs?)

I'm probably putting the cart ahead of the horse when I look around the bend a few times thinking about Wilson's mindset. But what is interesting to me is how it reveals some changes in Wilson, how he has become willing to habitually force the ball even when Graham isn't open. We've seen Wilson think better of throwing to Doug Baldwin when he's got two steps, and Wilson will almost never force feed the ball to one player. Until now.

With Graham, it's not the results that interest me, it's the change in habits for Wilson. I suspect that Wilson is training himself to be more comfortable with an approach that could get Graham 80+ receptions.

 

[MizzouHawkGal]

At least if he won MVP it would shut up the people he say he isn't "elite".

And the arguments against paying him 22M+ would evaporate. I have no doubt the offense is going to start shifting to Wilson as the focal point. It's just how things work in the NFL. The quarterback gets paid and the team expects to get their money's worth. Fair is fair as they say.

 

[brettb3]

I think it's just about getting Graham acclimated to the offense. We won't know if Wilson's habits have changed until the regular season.

 

[DavidSeven]

One area I'd like to see if RW can grow in is exploiting favorable match-ups, which I think you're almost always going to have if Graham is one-on-one in the redzone. The spread-it-around approach has been pretty successful so far, but sometimes our receivers and tight ends get lost for games at a time. Can't let that happen with Graham. Of course, you hope Wilson doesn't start forcing it for passing glory either, which in itself was problematic a couple times last year (most notably the NFCCG).

To me, hearing that Wilson is really looking for Graham during practice reps is good news. I say, let's forget the "blend him in" approach we tried with Harvin. Let's actually get a guy some respectable targets. If it leads RW to putting up a monster season, another 'ship and a monster deal, so be it. Greater good.

 

[EntiatHawk]

I think Kearly pretty well described it.

It is OTA, but it is also a time to install part of the offense as well so guys have things to work on before coming back to camp.

I can't help but think that with Graham, Wilson and Lynch that this will be a very cool year. I also see us going to some 3 TE sets and really forcing the defense to commit. Think about it we actually have two TE that run pretty then by moving them out that will pretty much tell Wilson what D he is facing.

I expect some very good things this year. Just think if JG can add several more first downs a game to the offense what the game impact will be. The offensive mentality is to beat you up and wear you down and extra possessions will really add to that.

 

[scutterhawk]

It's happening because JG's the new guy and they need to build a rapport. The rest of the recievers have worked with Wilson for years. I think the Hawks are shifting to a more passing offense this season, not just indicated by getting Graham, but all the offensive players taken in the draft. We seriously brought an injection of talent into the offensive line--formerly the weakest element. Lynch needs a break. Wilson will pass more this year.
GO HAWKS!

If what Tom Cable said about Wilson and Lynch needing one another, just could be that Lynch just MAY BE coming close to hanging it all up, and if that is the case, then wouldn't it stand to reason that Wilson might need to expand his repertoire?, and who better to help take the edge off a Defense and make it a little easier for Lynch, Wilson, Baldwin, Lockett and the rest of the Receivers to shine than someone like JG.