For me, THE absolute, positively, #1 Key to this game for Seattle – no question in my mind -- is Marshawn Lynch. Can Seattle establish the run, control the clock, and keep Aaron Rodgers and that prolific offense OFF the field? Here's a look at some recent history ...
*Note: (I included the Dallas playoff game from last year, as I believe it's instructive on how Green Bay did at Lambeau Field in stopping the run in a big time game against a very good RB)
Packers Defense -- Rushing Yards Allowed ...
2015 …
Week 1 (9/13/15) – Green Bay at Chicago …
189 yards rushing allowed (Matt Forte 141 yards … 1 TD … 5.9 yds/carry)
[An indication of things to come this Sunday? Keeping fingers crossed]
2014 …
NFC Championship at Seattle …
194 yards rushing allowed (Marshawn Lynch 157 yards … 1 TD … 6.3 yds/carry)
NFC Divisional Playoff Green Bay home vs. Dallas …
145 yards rushing allowed (DeMarco Murray 123 yards … 1 TD … 4.9 yds/carry)
Week 1 (9/4/14) – at Seattle
207 yards rushing allowed (Marshawn Lynch 110 yards … 2 TD … 5.5 yds/carry)
After Week 1, Football Outsiders has Green Bay ranked …
#19 overall in Defense DVOA
#8 overall in Pass Defense DVOA (-15.0%)
#31 overall in Run Defense DVOA (24.7%)
FO had Green Bay ranked #19 coming in to this season, so not much has changed in their opinion. Green Bay finished last season #24 overall in Run Defense DVOA (-1.1%), so they weren’t a stellar run defense BEFORE losing Guion and Barrington.
With Green Bay coming in to this game without their top 2 run defenders for this game, I'm wondering if that could end up being the difference in this game. If the Seahawks can establish the run, that not only opens up play action ... it obviously keeps Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense on the bench. It's hard to score a whole lot of points when you're not on the field.
I acknowledge that there are many important keys to this game for Seattle. That said, I believe the effectiveness of Seattle's running game ... and Green Bay's effectiveness in stopping it ultimately decides the outcome of this game.