Food for Thought: Free Agency

[Seattle Person]

Hi everyone,

As we enter free agency and the draft season, I think it's really important to understand the context around players leaving and players coming in. Every season, including myself, we like to cast away players and think about other players that can be replacements. However, I'm starting to realize whether I truly understand what production we are losing or what production we need to replace. Hopefully, this post starts a discussion that is meaningful so we can fully understand. After the team has to find a way to replace a bunch of pressures and a bunch of coverage snaps. Here is what I have. I'm interested to hear what others have to say. I'm going to stick to the most important impending free agents, and who I think makes sense as their replacements. They are not in any order of importance.

Boye Mafe: 6'4: 261 lbs: The more I dig into Mafe's season, the more I start to ask questions. He was a lot more productive than I realized. I needed to dig further into what we possibly need to replace with Mafe and then who might replace him. Mafe had 40 pressures according to PFF. Likewise from ESPN, Mafe had the 8th best pass rush win rate (PRWR) in the whole league! He had an impressive 19% PRWR. This metric tracks how quickly a rusher can defeat their blocks within 2.5 seconds. He didn't get the sacks but this is a lot of production. So if this is what we are losing, who might be able to replace him?

• Malcom Koonce: 6'2: 250 lbs: (F.A) from the Raiders is a potential candidate. He is going to be 28 by the 2026 NFL season. Koonce had 35 pressures and a 13% PRWR in 2025. He was coming off of an ACL tear in 2024 and was still pretty productive this past season. There is more in the tank I believe. Koonce had over 50 pressures and a 17% PRWR in 2023 when he was fully healthy. Can the Hawks be opportunistic and get him on a cheaper deal?

Josh Jobe: 5'11: 190 lbs: People see Jobe's raw numbers on PFF (56.5 rating) and scoff at him and deemed him replaceable. However, Jobe was heavily targeted and held up. He deserves to be paid as a lower CB #2. That means roughly $8m-$10m APY. If we lose him, what are we losing and who can replace him? Let's look under the hood. I'm using playerprofiler.com to see the interesting metrics that make Josh Jobe underrated and essential to a great defense. Players like him truly make a defense special. They raise the floor of a team. Jobe allowed a lot of yards (#45). That makes sense, he was heavily targeted. Receptions allowed were 43 (#71). Yards per reception allowed (ranked #9). Yards per target allowed (#2). Catch rate allowed (#10). All of this to say -- although being heavily targeted, Jobe limits the damage big time! Lastly, you have to earn it with Jobe -- target separation of 1.3 (#29), though a bunch of guys are tied at 1.3. In other words, dude is sticky in coverage.

Riq Woolen: 6'4: 205 lbs: PFF (61.2). People forget that Woolen lost his starting job to Josh Jobe. Woolen rotated in as the boundary CB when Devon Witherspoon moved inside as a nickel DB when Seattle was in its dime packages late in the season. He's talented with rare traits. He'll most likely get paid accordingly. Let's look under his hood. Receptions allowed were 33 (#34). Yards per reception allowed (ranked #19). Yards per target allowed (#6). Catch rate allowed (#13). Target separation of 1.3 -- same as Jobe. We bash on Woolen. He makes dumb mistakes. He's still one hell of a CB. Both Woolen and Jobe were essential to the 3 headed monster at CB. This is hard to replicate. I think it's imperative to bring back at least one of these dudes or try to match their production.

• Eric Stokes: 6'1: 194 lbs: (F.A) from the Raiders. PFF (73.6). Stokes is one of my favorite targets in F.A because he comes with a perfect storm. He has only really had 1 full season of production. The Raiders were constantly on defense and Stokes more than held his own. He actually was a star. I hope the NFL devalues him and the Seahawks take full advantage. He's only 27 in-season and is entering his prime while being able to run in the mid 4.25s...The closer I look, he actually compares really well to Woolen and Jobe. He covers like Jobe and runs like Woolen. Receptions allowed were 35 (#43). Yards per reception allowed (ranked #12). Yards per target allowed (#11). Catch rate allowed (#13). Target separation of 1.2 -- actually better than Woolen and Jobe. If you end up losing both Woolen and Jobe, you probably have to find another CB to go with Stokes to replicate the 3 CBs from 2025.

** I'm not going to write about Coby Bryant. I didn't find many metrics for him and I don't find any of the F.A at his position enticing.**

** Likewise with Ken Walker. I think that's a conversation for another day.**

** I think it's pretty likely Shaheed re-signs.**

 

[Mick063]

Seattle doesn't get compensatory picks unless they allow for some free agent movement. Compensatory picks are a vehicle to stay younger and cheaper. In other words, the league format is designed to create parity through roster churn. You can't sustain success by creating an unsustainable, expensive, short term super roster. You instead sustain success by winning at the parity driven ruleset that the league and NFLPA has imposed. I'm not talking about brief success. I'm talking about sustained success. Year after year success. Like, for example, the Patriots fans having to come to grips with letting go of Richard Seymour, or some other similar move, year after year. You just can't get too attached to any given player if you seek sustained success.

 

[Seattle Person]

Seattle doesn't get compensatory picks unless they allow for some free agent movement. Compensatory picks are a vehicle to stay younger and cheaper. In other words, the league format is designed to create parity through roster churn. You can't sustain success by creating an unsustainable, expensive, short term super roster. You instead sustain success by winning at the parity driven ruleset that the league and NFLPA has imposed. I'm not talking about brief success. I'm talking about sustained success. Year after year success. Like, for example, the Patriots fans having to come to grips with letting go of Richard Seymour, or some other similar move, year after year. You just can't get too attached to any given player if you seek sustained success.

I think everything should be at play.

Compensatory picks should be viewed as an advantage and not necessarily the main strategy. I don't think it should get in the way of improving or sustaining the team.

I hope the team looks at trades, the draft, and undervalued F.As.

 

[Kamcussionator]

The Seahawks' strategy has got to be keeping their SB window open as long as possible right now.

The current window is going to rely on the DLine, where J.Reed (33), Lawrence (33), Williams (31), and Nwosu (29) make it the oldest unit on the team.

Mills plays J.Reed/Williams spot, but Mafe backs up Lawrence/Nwosu so that makes re-signing Mafe more important to maintain continuity while developing a new OLB to enter that rotation.

The only other starters over 30 are Kupp (32), and Myers/Dickson.

Cornerback and WR are the only other positions threatened by FA. It is imperative that we re-sign either Jobe or Woolen. They both have their strengths and weaknesses, but letting both go would put us in a position of having to find two starting-caliber CB. The draft and FA don't offer much this year for starter replacements. Keeping one would make our worst case scenario Jobe(my fav) and Pritchett in addition to Witherspoon.

WR is less settled for me. Horton could come back as a WR2 and return kicks again with Kupp relegated to WR3 if Shaheed walks, but I would much rather have dual threat returners and let Kupp wait in the wings as a capable backup until one of the young guys can play him off the field. Price tag on Shaheed is everything. He didn't show great route running or great hands, so I'm not going to be upset if they let him go. I will instead be thankful for his Percy Harvin-like cameo in our SB run. There's a lot of WR depth in this draft too.

Walker is the only one that gives me concern. He really started to get over his bad habit of dancing around in the backfield which led to so many negative plays early in the year. If that's his starting point next year, he could be due for a breakout and it would be really nice to have him locked up for 3-4 years. I would expect that we will give him RB1 money, but with a short leash as far as guaranteed money so we can get out if he regresses instead. If someone offers him a bag, I think we could get a comparable vet on a short deal to replace his production pretty easy -- just wouldn't it be nice to see him explode for 2k yards here at home?

Okada's play makes me comfortable with letting Bryant walk if he's too expensive.

The only other name I'll pound the table for is Josh Jones. He played well enough for Cross and Lucas this year, which is exactly what you want from a backup tackle. Assuming other teams don't see him as a starter, he's someone I'd really like back.

 

[TwistedHusky]

It might be tough to keep FAs this year.