Doug Baldwin and Tendering Questions

[Pandion Haliaetus]

If the team tendered Doug Baldwin with a 1st Round Designation, does that mean, a team like the Indianapolis Colts who don't own a 1st Round Pick can't offer him a contract? or can they still discuss one with Baldwin but then have to negotiate with the Seahawks to different terms for trade compensation?

Also, let's say we do place a 1st Round Tender on Baldwin, is there a team out there that will price us out from matching while giving up their first round pick?

Colts would be my first thought but they don't have a 1st Rounder.

Then I thought about other teams with cap space: Jax, Oak, Minny, Cleveland but they all have top 10 picks. Cleveland has two picks but they would be required to give up their original one, right?

So that leaves, PHI, GB, and the NYJ.

For the Eagles they have Jackson, but Maclin and Cooper are free agents , I don't think you'd trade a 1st rounder for Baldwin when you could go after your own free agents or someone like Decker to pair across Jackson.

For Green Bay they have Nelson and Cobb with James Jones being a free agent, again I don't see this team trading a first for a WR.

But let's say with enough targets, Baldwin could definitely be a workhorse WR that could be 80+ catches, 1000+, 7+ TDs a year guy and with an efficiently competitive nature that gives you the sense he's going to be consistent and better with each year of growth and experience.

Does a team like the Jets who've had some of the worst luck at not only signing but drafting WR talent roll the dice and take another risk and trade away their 1st rounder. Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

You have AJ Green and Julio Jones. No Brainers.

The next three would be in no order, Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, and Doug Baldwin. All bring their own brand into being a WR but based on production it would go Smith to the Chiefs (taking Jon Baldwins spot), Baldwin to the Lions (taking Titus Youngs spot), and Cobb to the Ravens (taking Torrey Smith's spot).

It would give Doug Baldwin a 2nd Round Value either way you slice it, with a possible late 1st round grade in that mostly horrible draft class.

I'm scared that John Iduzik? would want nothing more than to cut Holmes, grab a young but proven guy like Baldwin who still has so much potential, who would also be a healthy symbolism that it doesn't matter where you're drafted or if at all, if you work hard, understand your role, and out compete everyone you can make it in the NFL and help a team win a Superbowl.

At the beginning of the 2013 year, I advocated trading Baldwin numerous times, but he's made me a believer, and he should be a Seahawks for a very long time along with Wilson.

I wouldn't mind teams going out and overpaying Golden Tate to 7-8 million per but it would crush me if we lost Baldwin that way even if we got a stupid 1st Round Draft Pick out of it.

 

[drdiags]

If he was tendered a 1st round tender, the team wanting to sign him would have to have a 1st round pick. So in your Colts scenario, they couldn't tender him an offer. What they could do is try to work a deal with the Seahawks otherwise they are out of luck. At least that is what I think. If someone makes him an offer, the team has 7 days to match it so the team still has an opportunity to re-sign him if they choose.

We will never know how hot the market is for Doug because teams wanting to make an offer will have to work with his agents and it will not be publicized (I don't think) until the agent/player and bidding team agree on the contract offer.

 

[DavidSeven]

The Giants put a 1st round tender on Victor Cruz last year, and he received no offers. I'd be shocked if the market was hotter for Baldwin. Cruz was coming off consecutive 1000 yard seasons and a Pro Bowl. A 2nd round tender should assure Baldwin's place on the roster. There's plenty of WRs in this draft -- no reason for other teams to surrender a 2nd to hand one a big contract.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Sigh. It's the offseason. No offense, it's a very interesting conversation, but it boils down to: given this hypothetical situation, which of these hypothetical situations might occur?

Which is the one sure conversation we can count on happening relentlessly all offseason long.

Sigh.

 

[sutz]

Sigh. It's the offseason. No offense, it's a very interesting conversation, but it boils down to: given this hypothetical situation, which of these hypothetical situations might occur?

Which is the one sure conversation we can count on happening relentlessly all offseason long.

Sigh.

Well, at least it is marginally better than the hypothetical "If we play that badly in the playoffs, we'll never make it to the Superb Owl" discussions that permeated the board last season.

 

[Brahn]

Sigh. It's the offseason. No offense, it's a very interesting conversation, but it boils down to: given this hypothetical situation, which of these hypothetical situations might occur?

Which is the one sure conversation we can count on happening relentlessly all offseason long.

Sigh.

Then why even come around and click on such posts if all you are looking for is concrete news.

Title: Doug Baldwin and Tendering Questions

Is the topic, chances are it will lead to hypothetical conversations. I never understood those who crap on others because of the discussions we would like to have. Some people like to predict and others like to invite conversation.

Then we have those who need to come in and be party poopers because the thread isn't what they had planned. And what is the end result? People putting down others for their conversational topics.

Sigh!

I guess this is what happens during the off season, you have people who want to have conversations and people who sigh to end them because of emotions towards it.

 

[Geologic]

Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

IMO he's the fifth best WR from the draft.

1) AJ Jenkins
2) Julio Jones
3) Torrey Smith
4) Randall Cobb
5) Doug Baldwin

Not bad for a UDFA though :lol:

 

[CPHawk]

John Clayton thinks we put a 2nd on him fwiw.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

The value of Baldwin to this team cannot be overstated IMO. I just re-watched the NFCCG and to my eyes he was the player of the game. He had several huge third down catches for first downs to keep drives alive, the awesome kickoff return after the Whiners scored to go up 17-10 giving us momentum right back and of course the 51 yd. broken play/scramble completion to set up our first score (FG). Dougie ain't goin' anywhere and yeah, a 2nd round tender should accomplish that.

 

[HawkWow]

^ Agreed.

Just watched our opener vs. Carolina. Kearse just caught the go-ahead TD and Tate and Baldwin were the best receivers on the field (for either team). (The healthy) Rice, other than a nice first down catch early, virtually non-existent the rest of the way.

BTW, real nice game from Coleman and forcing the late fumble, Earl saved the day.

 

[cacksman]

I'm wondering if another team with picking late in the draft would steal Baldwin away for a 2nd rounder. The Pats come to mind as a team that could really use him, and if I were them I'd rather have Baldwin than a late 2nd.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

IMO he's the fifth best WR from the draft.

1) AJ Jenkins
2) Julio Jones
3) Torrey Smith
4) Randall Cobb
5) Doug Baldwin

Not bad for a UDFA though :lol:

Understandable, but this is what I wrote after what you quoted from my statement:

You have AJ Green and Julio Jones. No Brainers.

The next three would be in no order, Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, and Doug Baldwin. All bring their own brand into being a WR but based on production it would go Smith to the Chiefs (taking Jon Baldwins spot), Baldwin to the Lions (taking Titus Youngs spot), and Cobb to the Ravens (taking Torrey Smith's spot).

And the key word to focus on my statement is could.

I don't got stats but Torrey Smith just seems like a burner getting No. 1 targets.

Cobb to me is more of a complimentary asset.

By the eye tests of overall production it shows Smith > Baldwin > Cobb...

Cobb is extremely talented but he also has a top 3 QB throwing him the ball, while having the least amount of production per catch, and his oft-injured.... so lets take him out of the conversation altogether.

It leaves Baldwin vs Tate:

Now here's the thing about Torrey Smith in my opinion, he's vastly overrated. Lets consider this year, his most productive by far.

Torrey Smith: 65 catches, 1,174 yards, 4 TDs but he also had 137 Targets, a horrible 47.4% catch rate.

Doug Baldwin: 50 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDs but on 73 Targets, with a 68.5% catch rate. Lets say we give Baldwin 135 targets, reduce his catch rate to 65% and his yards per catch to 14 yards from 15.6. Doug Baldwin would still have:

88 catches for 1232 Yards, about 9 TDs.

Maximize his output fully on 137 targets he'd have:

94 catches for 1466 Yards, about 9-10 TDs

Its not exact science but regardless give Baldwin and Smith the same amount of targets, Baldwin would the better receiver, in my opinion, which is why I said he "arguably could have been the 3rd Best WR" from that 2011 draft.

 

[Erebus]

Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

IMO he's the fifth best WR from the draft.

1) AJ Jenkins
2) Julio Jones
3) Torrey Smith
4) Randall Cobb
5) Doug Baldwin

Not bad for a UDFA though :lol:

I sure hope #1 is a typo. :lol:

 

[TestMo1337]

Just watch out for the poison pill contracts.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

IMO he's the fifth best WR from the draft.

1) AJ Jenkins
2) Julio Jones
3) Torrey Smith
4) Randall Cobb
5) Doug Baldwin

Not bad for a UDFA though :lol:

Pretty sure you meant AJ Green and not AJ Jenkins. But I agree with that Top 5.

 

[onanygivensunday]

Just watch out for the poison pill contracts.

They're a thing of the past.

No worries.

 

[TestMo1337]

They are still allowed, though discouraged against.

There's nothing in the current CBA that prevents someone from using this tactic.

 

[sutz]

I'm not sure how one would put a poison pill into a contract on a RFA. I thought it was mostly a function of the Transition Tag.

But I think Schneid is smarter than Timmay was, so we have that going for us.

 

[hawksfansinceday1]

.........I think Schneid is smarter than Timmay was.........

In other news, water is wet.

 

[themunn]

Looking back at that 2011 draft: Baldwin could arguably be the third best WR from that draft.

IMO he's the fifth best WR from the draft.

1) AJ Jenkins
2) Julio Jones
3) Torrey Smith
4) Randall Cobb
5) Doug Baldwin

Not bad for a UDFA though :lol:

Understandable, but this is what I wrote after what you quoted from my statement:

You have AJ Green and Julio Jones. No Brainers.

The next three would be in no order, Randall Cobb, Torrey Smith, and Doug Baldwin. All bring their own brand into being a WR but based on production it would go Smith to the Chiefs (taking Jon Baldwins spot), Baldwin to the Lions (taking Titus Youngs spot), and Cobb to the Ravens (taking Torrey Smith's spot).

And the key word to focus on my statement is could.

I don't got stats but Torrey Smith just seems like a burner getting No. 1 targets.

Cobb to me is more of a complimentary asset.

By the eye tests of overall production it shows Smith > Baldwin > Cobb...

Cobb is extremely talented but he also has a top 3 QB throwing him the ball, while having the least amount of production per catch, and his oft-injured.... so lets take him out of the conversation altogether.

It leaves Baldwin vs Tate:

Now here's the thing about Torrey Smith in my opinion, he's vastly overrated. Lets consider this year, his most productive by far.

Torrey Smith: 65 catches, 1,174 yards, 4 TDs but he also had 137 Targets, a horrible 47.4% catch rate.

Doug Baldwin: 50 catches, 778 yards, 5 TDs but on 73 Targets, with a 68.5% catch rate. Lets say we give Baldwin 135 targets, reduce his catch rate to 65% and his yards per catch to 14 yards from 15.6. Doug Baldwin would still have:

88 catches for 1232 Yards, about 9 TDs.

Maximize his output fully on 137 targets he'd have:

94 catches for 1466 Yards, about 9-10 TDs

Its not exact science but regardless give Baldwin and Smith the same amount of targets, Baldwin would the better receiver, in my opinion, which is why I said he "arguably could have been the 3rd Best WR" from that 2011 draft.

It doesn't work like that though - Josh Gordon and Calvin Johnson both had catch rates of under 55% (54.7 and 53.9 respectively). It depends on your quarterback, your scheme, and who is covering you. Gordon, Johnson and Smith are the number 1 receivers on their teams, so receive number 1 attention in every game. Gordon and Smith also don't have running games to contend with that can draw linebackers up to the LoS (at least, given the reason Ray Rice just had)

I'm not saying Smith is better than Baldwin based on that, but you certainly can't compare stats that are so wildly different for players to come to that conclusion. I have no idea who is better because I didn't watch a single Ravens game last year.