Did Duane Brown Improve the Offense Last Season?

[original poster]

Following a discussion in another thread I wanted to take a look at how Duane Brown improved the offense last season, here's what I discovered...


To make this accurate, I've had to look at a variety of different stats as there are just so many variables. Did the game turn into a shootout? Bad weather? Receivers executing? There are so many ariables that can skew the stats so I'm going to take the approach of looking at multiple different ones to try and paint a 'bigger picture'.

Firstly, let's take a look at time to throw. This stat looks at the average time the QB has to throw the ball (passing downs only) over the duration of a game.

Week 1 - 3.2 seconds
Week 2 - 2.6 seconds
Week 3 - 2.91 seconds
Week 4 - 2.94 seconds
Week 5 - 3.08 seconds
Week 6 - BYE
Week 7 - 2.9 seconds
Week 8 - 3.1 seconds

In the weeks where Duane Brown was not the Seahawks left tackle, Wilson had an average of 2.96 in the pocket before getting hit.

Below are the numbers with Duane Brown on the left side -

Week 9 - 3.32 seconds
Week 10 - 3.07 seconds
Week 11 - 3.11 seconds
Week 12 - 3.21 seconds
Week 13 - 3.04 seconds
Week 14 - 3.66 seconds
Week 15 - 2.94 seconds
Week 16 -2.99 seconds
Week 17 - 3.07 seconds

With Duane Brown on the roster Russ had an average of 3.15 seconds to release the ball.

Obviously, an improvement. How about 'average completed air yards'?

Week 1 - 5.7 yards
Week 2 - 4.7 yards
Week 3 - 6.7 yards
Week 4 - 10.9 yards
Week 5 - 4.6 yards
Week 6 - BYE
Week 7 - 7.6 yards
Week 8 - 13.3 yards

Week 9 - 7.5 yards
Week 10 - 7.9 yards
Week 11 - 7.9 yards
Week 12 - 7.1 yards
Week 13 - 6.1 yards
Week 14 - 11.1 yards
Week 15 - 7.5 yards
Week 16 -6.7 yards
Week 17 - 8 yards

Average before 7.64
Average after 8.58

Obviously, this stat isn't definitive and the exact reason why I'm looking at multiple measurements. For example, the week 8 shootout against the Texans increases the 'before Duane Brown' stats considerably, but as it stands Duane is two for two on improving the offense.

Next is 'Air Yards to the Sticks'. Air Yards to the Sticks shows the amount of Air Yards ahead or behind the first down marker on all attempts for a passer. The metric indicates if the passer is attempting his passes past the 1st down marker, or if he is relying on his skill position players to make yards after catch. This may seem a bit irrelevant on the surface, however is directly linked to pressure (quicker pressure means the QB doesn't have time to complete all his reads and may simply get the ball out and hope the receiver can gain the first down via YAC (yards after catch).


Week 1 - 3 yards
Week 2 - -1.5 yards (negative)
Week 3 - 0.7 yards
Week 4 - 2.5 yards
Week 5 - -1.2 yards (negative)
Week 6 - BYE
Week 7 - 1.5 yards
Week 8 - 3.3 yards

Week 9 - 2.7 yards
Week 10 - -1.9 yards (negative)
Week 11 - -1.4 yards (negative)
Week 12 - 2.3 yards
Week 13 - -1 yards (negative)
Week 14 - 4.8 yards
Week 15 - 0.5 yards
Week 16 - 4.1 yards
Week 17 - 2.6 yards

Before Duane Brown - 1.18 yards after the stick
With Duane Brown - 1.41 yards after the stick

So far, all three of these stats support the argument that Duane Brown was having a real impact on the offensive production (in a positive way).

Passer rating is always a good one to measure, let's take a look -


Week 1 - 69.7
Week 2 - 80.9
Week 3 - 110.3
Week 4 - 107.5
Week 5 - 76.2
Week 6 - BYE
Week 7 - 121.1
Week 8 - 123.2

Week 9 - 70.3
Week 10 - 112.2
Week 11 - 85.2
Week 12 - 86.4
Week 13 - 118.6
Week 14 - 76.9
Week 15 - 71.8
Week 16 - 107.8
Week 17 - 108.5

Average passer rating before Duane Brown - 98.41
Average passer rating with Duane Brown - 93.07

As you can see Wilsons passer rating went down, obviously you can't pinpoint that purely on Brown, that would be ridiculous, but as I mentioned at the start of this article I wanted to take a scatter approach and look at various angles to try and 'paint a picture'. Considering Russell's historically horrible December I can't say I'm too surprised that his passer rating is down.


Firstly, to evaluate the running game I looked at 'average time behind the line of scrimmage (ATBLS). However, this stat can give different views depending on how you read it, is a RB behind the LOS for a long time because no gaps are being opened? Or is it a case that a defender breaks through the LOS disrupting the play? Plus, the stat only includes RB's with 10+ carries a game and the amount of times Seattle didn't have a runner with 10 or more carries was alarming so I've decided to leave this out as it really does nothing for the argument for or against…

I've also not looked at rushing efficiency as the bulk of this accounts for the second level so again, probably wouldn't help the argument either way. Football Outsiders would have been perfect to use as they measure rushing stats based on the gap the runner uses (C and B gap in this article) however, unfortunately, they don't give you a week by week breakdown so it's impossible to differentiate between before and after Duane Brown was on the roster.

Unfortunately, it seems there are no stats available that you can break down week to week to get an informed decision on How Duane Brown impacted the run game which is a real shame. If anyone is aware of how I can do this (including week to week, not season stats, please do let me know).

Another stat I managed to find was how PFF graded both Rees Odhiambo from weeks 1 to 8 and Duane Brown from weeks 9 to 17.

Rees Odhiambo PFF grade (weeks 1-8) -



Duane Brown PFF grade (weeks 9-17) -



Obviously, there is a staggering difference in how the two players performed.

Rees Odhiambo run block snaps & run block grade- 166/31.9
Rees Obhiambo pass block snaps & pass block grade - 318/28.8
Duane Brown run block snaps & run block grade - 180/78
Duane Brown pass block snaps & pass block grade - 372/77.5

It's a real shame I wasn't able to go into more depth into how Brown impacted the run game but ultimately everything I've looked at shows an increase in efficiency between Rees Odhiambo and Duane Brown apart from Russell Wilsons passer rating. Many won't be surprised by this but it's always nice to be able to support my assumption with fact.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Also as I stated in the other thread, you left out sacks, which IMO is far more important than passer rating or Russell's infinitesimal increase in release time.

Sacked 43 times, 16 before Brown, 27 after.

I like Brown, I think he's a BIG upgrade over Fant and Odhiambo. But coming off a holdout with only half a season in a new system trying to block for a QB like Russell? Virtually impossible to evaluate Brown under those circumstances.

I hope we do extend him, cause as of now he's literally the only dependable above average lineman on this team.

 

[original poster]

I did try and find the breakdown Field Gulls did of assigning each sack, although Russ was sacked more times from week 9 onwards, I believe Brown only gave up 1 or 2 of those.

Yeah I see no reason why they wouldn't extend him in the summer.

It seems both sides want him to retire in Seattle.

 

[Seymour]

Damn OP thanks for doing all the homework. Pretty hard to evaluate Brown real well with Joeke next to him, but I think his impact will help the offense in the long run no matter what the number reveal.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

I did try and find the breakdown Field Gulls did of assigning each sack, although Russ was sacked more times from week 9 onwards, I believe Brown only gave up 1 or 2 of those.

Yeah I see no reason why they wouldn't extend him in the summer.

It seems both sides want him to retire in Seattle.

Depends on what he wants. If Brown's willing to stay around a reasonable 10-11M per year? Then I think it's doable.

But if he wants to break the bank at 13-15M, so he's the highest paid LT? Then we have a problem.

 

[MontanaHawk05]

Thanks for all the work. I'm not really seeing anything in there that contradicts my assertion: the improvements that Duane Brown brought to the offense were not worth the second- and third-round pick.

There are multiple reasons for that other than Brown being a bad player, of course (because he's not). Like the Cable factor, or the lack of serviceable RB's, or Russell Wilson's tendency to sabotage plays while salvaging others.

But that only drives further home the point that using so many draft picks on a fix that wasn't the central problem to begin with, was a bad idea. Now if those picks had gone to a serviceable RB, or somehow gotten us more than one standard OL, we would have been closer to a good use for them.

And that's assuming he doesn't hold out on us at some point.

 

[IndyHawk]

Thanks for all the work. I'm not really seeing anything in there that contradicts my assertion: the improvements that Duane Brown brought to the offense were not worth the second- and third-round pick.

There are multiple reasons for that other than Brown being a bad player, of course (because he's not). Like the Cable factor, or the lack of serviceable RB's, or Russell Wilson's tendency to sabotage plays while salvaging others.

But that only drives further home the point that using so many draft picks on a fix that wasn't the central problem to begin with, was a bad idea. Now if those picks had gone to a serviceable RB, or somehow gotten us more than one standard OL, we would have been closer to a good use for them.

And that's assuming he doesn't hold out on us at some point.

This is why I think that trade was a wash.
Until that stops..No need to waste picks and high dollars.

 

[IndyHawk]

OP-Love the work you put up..Great job

 

[adeltaY]

Great work, OP. I liked the DB trade a lot when we included JLane and saved the third round pick. The failed physical really screwed us in this year's draft. It's mind-boggling how he started off so dominant with us and then got worse as the year progressed. I remember reviewing the cutup of every pass protection snap during the JAX game and DB only gave up one pressure by my count - he was stonewalling one of the best pass rushes in the league otherwise. Then against the Rams, Robert Quinn was owning him. I think Benson Mayowa also got a sack against DB in the Dallas game. Weird.

If he can come back and play like he did the first few games he was with us, which is more reflective of the caliber of player he has been for the past several years, he'll be well worth what we shelled out.

 

[SeadogEast]

You wrote a nice post, however, Brown was playing with a badly twisted ankle since the Arizona game. Analytics are great in the board room and blog websites (Fieldgulls). If you give someone enough time, they will create useful or useless statistics about anything. Nevertheless, the eyeball test tells me a different story. Brown is light years ahead of anything else we have, injured or healthy. Russel Wilson scrambled into many of Brown's sacks and Wilson's 10 yard drops doesn't do either tackle any favors either.

 

[original poster]

Thanks chaps.

Very good point about the injury Seadog, I forgot about that.

This line has been woeful for too many years, provided they extend Brown this summer (I see no reason they won't) I love the trade and solidifies the most important position in the group. If we pick up a star LG in the draft and Pocic gets considerably stronger there may be only one weak link on this line at RT. Even that may improve with better coaching (Ifedi) or even if George Fant continues to shine in camp and preseason this year and climbs up the depth chart.

If Solari does run a power scheme Pocic really is going to be the odd man out.

IF that's the case, I can absolutely see the line looking like this -

LT - Duane Brown
LG - Rookie (please god draft Isaiah Wynn)
C - Justin Britt
RG - Germain Ifedi
RT - George Fant

 

[NJlargent]

If our OL is Brown, rookie, Britt, ifedi, and Fant then DB is invaluable. He’s a good OL and if the stats don’t suggest a marked improvement it is because the other 4 are not good. He was a conservative pick that protected us from another FO bust via free agency or draft.

 

[Str8OuttaSkittles]

ifedi needs someone to challenge him for the position!! fant showed promise but even then the line is kinda worrying, brown absoluley helped and im looking for him to give the others some home truths xD

 

[adeltaY]

ifedi needs someone to challenge him for the position!! fant showed promise but even then the line is kinda worrying, brown absoluley helped and im looking for him to give the others some home truths xD

Pete said they want to keep Ifedi at tackle... Hopefully Fant and someone else can compete with him there.

 

[pittpnthrs]

Brown will look good again under Solari. Cable was his biggest problem.

 

[sdog1981]

ifedi needs someone to challenge him for the position!! fant showed promise but even then the line is kinda worrying, brown absoluley helped and im looking for him to give the others some home truths xD

Pete said they want to keep Ifedi at tackle... Hopefully Fant and someone else can compete with him there.

That's cute. Just remember if Cable wanted the player then that means the player is one of the worst linemen in NFL history. The Cable kiss of death is a reality.

 

[RCATES]

The only fix is Wilson. He needs to trust his guys and stay in the pocket and make throws. Sad thing is I don't he ever will due to being so short.

 

[chris98251]

The only fix is Wilson. He needs to trust his guys and stay in the pocket and make throws. Sad thing is I don't he ever will due to being so short.

Well if there was a pocket to trust that may happen, was not the case much of the time, the revolving door was there much more then it wasn't for at least two years, unlearning bad habits is much harder to do then teach good ones as well.

 

[AgentDib]

This is a neat idea but there's not nearly enough data here to tease one factor out of dozens. As a result, I think you're more informed to look directly at player performance grades you trust, rather than the end product which is irreversibly muddled and exposes you to the significant risk of learning something that isn't true.

 

[Tusc2000]

Brown will look good again under Solari. Cable was his biggest problem.

Bingo. Analytics aside, Brown's effectiveness diminished each week he was on the team, as he became integrated into Cable's gross incompetence. His best games were in the beginning before Cable got ahold of him and dragged him into the same s***hole everyone else was in..

And if you want some analytics that matter, here is our record in our final 4 games:

LOSS
LOSS
WIN
LOSS