College Football over the past ten years.

[SeatownJay]

Now that the 2017 CFB season is over, I’m taking this opportunity to post a small project I’ve been working on. Using the Massey Composite Rankings (https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm) from the past ten years (2008 – 2017) I’ve put together a document that shows how all of the FBS programs have fared over the past decade of play. Overall, 35 different teams have finished in the top ten of the Massey Composite at least once in the past ten years. Alabama leads the way with 10 top tens, followed by Ohio State with 8, Oklahoma with 7, Oregon with 6, and Stanford with 5.

Below are some of the top ten lists I’ve garnered.

Top Ten Overall Teams 2008-2017
1: Alabama (2.90)
2: Ohio State (10.30)
3: Oklahoma (10.40)
4: LSU (16.20)
5: Stanford (17.40)
6: Florida State (17.70)
7: USC (18.40)
8: Wisconsin (18.50)
9: Oregon (18.70)
10: Clemson (18.90)

Top Ten Teams 2008-2012
1: Alabama (3.80)
2: Oregon (7.00)
3: Oklahoma (9.60)
4: Boise State (9.80)
5: Florida (13.80)
6: Oklahoma State (14.60)
7: TCU (15.00)
8: LSU (15.60)
9: Ohio State (16.20)
10: USC (18.60)

Top Ten Teams 2013-2017
1: Alabama (2.00)
2: Ohio State (4.40)
3: Clemson (6.80)
4: Oklahoma (11.20)
5: Florida State (13.00)
6: Stanford (13.40)
7: Wisconsin (14.00)
8: LSU (16.80)
9: Auburn (17.00)
10: USC (18.20)

Top Ten Biggest Improvements Over First 5 Years To Second 5 Years
1: Memphis (+58.00)
2: Washington State (+52.80)
3: Western Kentucky (+43.60)
4: Washington (+38.00)
5: Louisville (33.40)
6: Duke (+32.60)
7: Colorado State (+30.00)
8: Indiana (+27.20)
9: Auburn (+26.20)
10: Toledo (+26.00)

Top Ten Biggest Regressions Over First 5 Years To Second 5 Years
1: Connecticut (-51.20)
2: Tulsa (-43.20)
3: Cincinnati (-43.00)
4: Oregon State (-43.00)
5: Nevada (-42.00)
6: Rutgers (-38.20)
7: Kansas (-31.00)
8: Hawaii (-30.40)
9: Florida (-27.40)
10: Texas (-27.00)

Top Ten Most Consistent Teams From First 5 Years To Second 5 Years
1: USC (+0.40)
2: Eastern Michigan (-0.40)
3: Arkansas State (+0.60)
4: Kentucky (-0.80)
5: NC State (+1.00)
6: LSU (-1.20)
7: Maryland (+1.60)
8: New Mexico State (-1.60)
9: Oklahoma (-1.60)
10: Alabama (+1.80)

On the conference level, the SEC has been far and away the most successful with 30 top tens among 10 different teams. Boise State and TCU are the only programs to have a top ten finish in two different conferences. A full breakdown of conference performance is below.

SEC: 30 (Alabama 10, Auburn 3, Florida 3, Georgia 3, LSU 3, South Carolina 3, Mississippi 2, Arkansas 1, Missouri 1, Texas A&M 1)
Big Ten: 19 (Ohio State 8, Michigan State 3, Penn State 3, Michigan 2, Wisconsin 2)
Big 12: 17 (Oklahoma 7, Baylor 2, Oklahoma State 2, TCU 2, Texas 2, Kansas State 1, Texas Tech 1)
Pac 10/12: 15 (Oregon 6, Stanford 5, USC 3, Washington 1)
ACC: 8 (Clemson 3, Florida State 3, Georgia Tech 1, Virginia Tech 1)
Mountain West: 4 (TCU 2, Boise State 1, Utah 1)
WAC: 3 (Boise State 3)
Independents: 2 (Notre Dame 2)
AAC: 1 (UCF 1)
Big East: 1 (Cincinnati 1)
C-USA: 0
MAC: 0
Sun Belt: 0

I'd attach the file, but apparently .net doesn't like .xlsx files. If anyone wants a copy, PM me your e-mail address and I'll send you a copy.

 

[JSeahawks]

So how about predicting the next 5 years?

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Usc
10. Florida state

 

[SeatownJay]

So how about predicting the next 5 years?

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Usc
10. Florida state

Wow J. What happened? I thought next season was going to mark the return of Oregon dominating the Pac 12 for the foreseeable future.

 

[fenderbender123]

So how about predicting the next 5 years?

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Usc
10. Florida state

I think you forgot to put Washington on there somewhere. I understand it's hard for you to do that, but you know it's the truth.

 

[JSeahawks]

So how about predicting the next 5 years?

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Usc
10. Florida state

I think you forgot to put Washington on there somewhere. I understand it's hard for you to do that, but you know it's the truth.

I really don’t. I think they take another step backwards next year after they took a step backwards this year. They better get a heck of a lot better at recruiting. Who’s going to play dline? And if you’re going to put Washington on there, who are you taking out? To be honest, i think uw is very average in a bad conference. Explains coach Pete’s 1-3 record in bowls.

 

[fenderbender123]

So how about predicting the next 5 years?

1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Auburn
8. Miami
9. Usc
10. Florida state

I think you forgot to put Washington on there somewhere. I understand it's hard for you to do that, but you know it's the truth.

They better get a heck of a lot better at recruiting. Who’s going to play dline? And if you’re going to put Washington on there, who are you taking out? To be honest, i think uw is very average in a bad conference. Explains coach Pete’s 1-3 record in bowls.

Okay, maybe not these next 5 years, but the 5 after that. It takes a bit of time to build good recruiting connections, but it appears Petersen and staff are making that happen. 2018 recruiting class is looking good.

 

[JSeahawks]

I’d put UW and Oregon both in the 11-15 range. Both capable of having special runs where they make the playoffs, but neither will be a year in year out contender. Not enough talent in our part of the country.

 

[SeatownJay]

I've uploaded the file to Google Drive here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

 

[Uncle Si]

http://www.espn.com/college-footbal...orgia-bulldogs-lead-way-too-early-2018-top-25

 

[lobohawk]

Not snarking the effort, but college football stats (especially wins) will always be suspect to me. The field of competition is a lot like mixing all drag racing vehicles in the same class. You end up with a lot of unbalanced games due to one main reason. Not coaching or play calling, but recruiting.