Arizona and Seattle

[olyfan63]

I don't get why some people feel they need to be snarky towards Ringless.
Rehash of posts? Whatever. I simply appreciate that an opponent fan provides insightful posts that have a coherent, generally well-supported arguments, references to relevant data, and share interesting information and insight about the opponent he supports. An opposing fan who respects the opponents. What a concept. Can we do the same?

Not that Ringless needs me, or anyone, to "protect" him; he does just fine on his own. I'm glad he posts here. The usual happy result, and again this time, includes getting many high-quality posts from Hawk fans.

Back on topic, this is the first time in a while it feels like it will be a close game. Arizona in the second half of last season was a paper tiger; the games they won were with smoke and mirrors. It was obvious we'd crush them at their place, against Drew Stanton and next-next-next-man up that resulted from the ridiculous rate of injury to their star players.

Pete Carroll has always been about getting his teams to play Pete Carroll brand football as his first priority, and worrying way less about the wins and losses than about getting his team to play the way he wants. We're seeing that in spades this year with the OL hot mess, and Pete is sticking with his guys, believing in them, and doing everything in his power to get them coached up and prepared and improved to the level they need to be at to be successful. And it's been very painful for us as fans to suffer through that the first half of the season.

The road win at Dallas was an excellent Pete Carroll win, and I believe, the start of a big run for the 2015 Seahawks. Like Lukerguy said, had AZ been lucky enough to catch Seattle a few weeks earlier, probably a W for the Cards. Now, much less likely. The win at Dallas, forget the score, really showed the growth of the team. Hell, it even showed some growth from Darrell Bevell! (e.g., scheming to roll Wilson out away from the Greg Hardy vs. Alvin Bailey LT matchup) Against Dallas, the 2nd half drives that had been 3-and-outs all season started turning into long drives with a pounding running game and strategic strikes in the passing game. When the Hawks D got back on the field, they were rested, instead of gassed. We got the FG blocked, but the D just came right back with a stop and the offense simply reeled off another long, pounding drive to get the winning FG. All 4 losses, I felt, came because the offense couldn't sustain drives and repeatedly went 3-and-out in the second half at the worst time, and the offensive woes were primarily the result of poor OL play. In this game, the offense did what they needed to do at the key times.

Not that the OL is suddenly a world-beater; it's just that they've sucked a little less the last few games, to the point they almost don't suck now. The defense has been mostly superb, but is built on speed more than bulk and power, and when tired in the second half, has been exploited by Green Bay, Carolina, and Cincinatti.

I expect the Seattle defense to play well against the Cards, and keep them around 17 points or less. The Seattle offense will score on 4-5 drives, and at least two of those need to be TDs for Seattle to win. A special teams return or defensive turnover leading to a score will be what puts Seattle over the top for a W. It will look like a good Pete Carroll win, with an effective ground game and first downs in the second half. The OL keeps improving, and the Cards pay the price.

 

[peppersjap]

Would also like to point out neither team has proved anything yet against the better teams.

Arizona lost by 12 points to a Michael Vick/Landry Jones-led Steelers team.

Seahawks have not lost by more than 10 points in the last four years, including playoff games. The last time was October 30, 2011 against Cincinnati . . . an NFL record 73-consecutive games. They have played three undefeated teams this season and more than held there own in agonizingly close losses.

They lost by 10 this year though didn't they. What made you choose 10 as opposed to 11 or 9? I'll tell you. Its the same reason I choose to say Carson Palmer is 12-2 in his last 14 games. I don't think it matters that it's been 73 games because all streaks end, and those games have nothing to do with the one coming up. When is the last time Seattle lost two games back to back twice in a season, and twice in a same season? They did it this year. They hadn't done it in those previous 73 games I'd be willing to bet on it. Which is why it's useless information. That's like the 49er fans that say they have 5 rings when their team performs poorly. It just doesnt matter. Or it would be like me saying Palmer is undefeated at century link as a Cardinal. I also didn't say who I thought would win. I said for the first time in the Pete era I felt like it could be a coin toss. I think most people could agree don't you?

Arizona lost but up until that last play we were in that game, and I'm not even going to get into what I felt happened that game. Very lopsided officiating. In both our losses just like Seattle in their four we had a chance to win the game at the end of the game.

I feel like our teams match up well. I feel like the first one to 20 will win this game. I certainly see Seattle's defense being the most disruptive this year on our offense. I also feel like it will be one of the worst offenses our defense has gone up against. Going off the results of this season I think that's fair to say.

The point should have been there has not been a game in the last few years that we did not have a legitimate shot to win in the 4th quarter which the Cardinals definitely can't say because we have blown you out in each of the last 2 years on your field. That being said I think the Cardinals look very good this year and we are struggling. I am very happy the 1st match up is at home and I am very surprised by the revitalized Larry Fitzgerald. I like seeing that unless it is against us because he is one of the classiest players in the league. I do think you are a good poster but kind of strange that you spend so much time in our forum. We have been doing a good enough job of being critical of our team with out outside help.

 

[JaiSeaSea]

I think this will be a struggle scoring a total of under 40. I think the Hawks can win but they need to put a full disciplined game together.

 

[Overseasfan]

This might just be the most important game of the year. I feel like the Hawks are slightly favored because of home advantage and our momentum is rolling a bit better.

 

[Pandion Haliaetus]

Would also like to point out neither team has proved anything yet against the better teams.

Arizona lost by 12 points to a Michael Vick/Landry Jones-led Steelers team.

Seahawks have not lost by more than 10 points in the last four years, including playoff games. The last time was October 30, 2011 against Cincinnati . . . an NFL record 73-consecutive games. They have played three undefeated teams this season and more than held there own in agonizingly close losses.

They lost by 10 this year though didn't they. What made you choose 10 as opposed to 11 or 9? I'll tell you. Its the same reason I choose to say Carson Palmer is 12-2 in his last 14 games. I don't think it matters that it's been 73 games because all streaks end, and those games have nothing to do with the one coming up. When is the last time Seattle lost two games back to back twice in a season, and twice in a same season? They did it this year. They hadn't done it in those previous 73 games I'd be willing to bet on it. Which is why it's useless information. That's like the 49er fans that say they have 5 rings when their team performs poorly. It just doesnt matter. Or it would be like me saying Palmer is undefeated at century link as a Cardinal. I also didn't say who I thought would win. I said for the first time in the Pete era I felt like it could be a coin toss. I think most people could agree don't you?

Arizona lost but up until that last play we were in that game, and I'm not even going to get into what I felt happened that game. Very lopsided officiating. In both our losses just like Seattle in their four we had a chance to win the game at the end of the game.

I feel like our teams match up well. I feel like the first one to 20 will win this game. I certainly see Seattle's defense being the most disruptive this year on our offense. I also feel like it will be one of the worst offenses our defense has gone up against. Going off the results of this season I think that's fair to say.

If it makes you feel better in that streak of 73 consecutive games, Seahawks have only loss by 10 points once. Its been the biggest blowout in the last 4 years.

Losses by Points:
10 points: 1
9 points: 1
8 points: 0
7 points: 3
6 points: 3
5 points: 0
4 points: 5
3 points: 4
2 points: 4

First of all and most importantly, Seahawks have consistently been winners the last 4 years winning 71.24% of thier games.

Which brings us to the 2nd point, the Seahawks dont lose much and when they do lose this team as always stay competitive even at their worst performance/ bad luck games.

It is crazy, losses within a TD:

19-2

Losses within a FG:
8-13

Losses over 8, within 7-5, under 4.

2-6-13

Seahawks have loss 28.76% of thier games in the ladt 4 years, but only 9.5% has been over a TD.

38% of thier losses have been by 6-10 points.
62% of thier losses have been by 2-4 points.

Now where its even crazier.

2.74% of games played have been losses within 8-10 points. 0% over 10 points.

10.96% of games played have been losses with 6-10 points.

17.8% of games played have been losses under 5 points.

Point is Seahawks have been the last 73 games an 11-5, 12-4 win team on average win% over 16 games.

They know how to win. And most of thier wins have came in the 2nd half of the season. Thats when they start to put it together.

Cards are getting a well-rested team that has played much better than what thier record says @ the CLink on Sunday Night Footballl probably with a good chance of rain against a group of players and centralized team philosphy that refuses to give up, to concede to losing, and the more the the Seahawks are pushed into the wall called desperation and mediocrity, the better they seem to get.

Theres a good chance this will be a close battle, a decent chance for a Cards win but it would not surprise me at all if the Seahawks come back refocused and revitalized at full-throttle and just blowout the Cardinals. Chances Cards blowout the Seahawks, just dont see it happening.

 

[Hawks46]

This is without a doubt the most important game of the year for us. It's important for the Cardinals as well, but it's urgently important for us.

We win this game, and we're 1 game behind the Cards, and their schedule is way tougher than ours. We lose, and we're fighting for a Wild Card spot, and I mean fighting.

It's tough to really tell how it will turn out. This is a tale of two almost polar opposite teams. The Cardinals have beat up on an easy schedule. Thing is, they don't make the schedule, and they've handled how they're supposed to: beating the crap out of bad teams and getting the wins. I don't think they are as good as their points differential indicates, but they're very good and they have a lot of positive momentum.

Seattle has barely lost to very good teams. 3 of our losses came at the hands of undefeated teams, and of those 3, only one has a loss now. We had some defensive personnel issues at the start of the season that have been worked out. This team also hasn't played it's best defense yet either: Wagner seems strangely average and Cary Williams is improving somewhat over what he started the season.

If we lose this game, it's not season over, but it's likely over for our race for the division. We'd be three games behind AZ and would be even on the head to head tiebreaker. That said, AZ still has to play STL at STL, GB, and Cincy. Two of those teams are elite and AZ hasn't played them yet. We can honestly only expect two, maybe three losses from the rest of their games besides us. So we need to beat them twice.

Conversely, if AZ beats us, they really only have to beat STL and they basically have the division. I don't see SEA winning a sprint to the finish line, down three games and not having the H2H intial tie breakers.

 

[Hawks46]

This is without a doubt the most important game of the year for us. It's important for the Cardinals as well, but it's urgently important for us.

We win this game, and we're 1 game behind the Cards, and their schedule is way tougher than ours. We lose, and we're fighting for a Wild Card spot, and I mean fighting.

It's tough to really tell how it will turn out. This is a tale of two almost polar opposite teams. The Cardinals have beat up on an easy schedule. Thing is, they don't make the schedule, and they've handled how they're supposed to: beating the crap out of bad teams and getting the wins. I don't think they are as good as their points differential indicates, but they're very good and they have a lot of positive momentum.

Seattle has barely lost to very good teams. 3 of our losses came at the hands of undefeated teams, and of those 3, only one has a loss now. We had some defensive personnel issues at the start of the season that have been worked out. This team also hasn't played it's best defense yet either: Wagner seems strangely average and Cary Williams is improving somewhat over what he started the season.

If we lose this game, it's not season over, but it's likely over for our race for the division. We'd be three games behind AZ and would be even on the head to head tiebreaker. That said, AZ still has to play STL at STL, GB, and Cincy. Two of those teams are elite and AZ hasn't played them yet. We can honestly only expect two, maybe three losses from the rest of their games besides us. So we need to beat them twice.

Conversely, if AZ beats us, they really only have to beat STL and they basically have the division. I don't see SEA winning a sprint to the finish line, down three games and not having the H2H intial tie breakers.

 

[Popeyejones]

The rivalry feeling for fans has less to do with on field stuff and more to do with how annoying 49ers fans are.

Totally disagree. I don't remember either fanbase being annoyed with each other until:

2011: 49ers, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams
2012: 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Cardinals
2013: Seahawks, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams
2014: Seahawks, Cardinals, 49ers, Rams

The respective fanbases, IMO, became mutually annoyed with each other in 2012/2013, regardless of what people try to say now, IMO.

Posted before about how I don't know if two seasons really of competition (2012 & 2013) are enough to sustain a rivalry in the long term, but I guarantee that if the Cardinals and Seahawks trade off the division over the next few years the animosity between those fanbases will grow .

And don't let Ringless fool you; Cards fans already don't like you guys, as they believe that injuries to their team gifted you the division last year, and Hawks fans are too full of themselves to acknowledge that. Not saying that's objectively true, but it's definitely what the majority of Cards fans who are into these types of fan rivalries believe.

 

[SalishHawkFan]

Arizona beat us in our house when we were at our peak. We're not at our peak this year and Arizona is better this year than they were two years ago. I'd say the odds are 60-40 Arizona. DVOA says the cards win on the road. That's the odds we're facing.

One of the plusses in our favor is that Arizona has the weakest pass rush by far we've seen this season. Of course, our oline in the past has made poor pass rushing teams look amazing, but if Dallas wasn't a fluke, then we might see RW have a good day.

This game is going to tell us where we truly stand this season. Lose and we'll be lucky to be a playoff team. Win and we might be back in the running.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Would also like to point out neither team has proved anything yet against the better teams.

Arizona lost by 12 points to a Michael Vick/Landry Jones-led Steelers team.

Seahawks have not lost by more than 10 points in the last four years, including playoff games. The last time was October 30, 2011 against Cincinnati . . . an NFL record 73-consecutive games. They have played three undefeated teams this season and more than held there own in agonizingly close losses.

10 AM kickoff. 10 AM kickoff. 10 AM kickoff.

They even struggled mightily in Cleveland until they shook off the rust.

 

[Hasselbeck]

Anybody else have a real tough time caring about Arizona? Rams? Hate 'em. 49ers? Love kicking their ass. Arizona? Meh... It's the cardinals, who cares. I expect to sweep them in both our upcoming games.

I think this is in large part due to the respective fan bases of each team. The Cardinals fan base is barely a blip on the NFL radar, and there are more guys like ringless in that base than obnoxious morons like the Niners have (excluding the good posters here of course). The Rams were easy to hate early on because they were our big brother and we had to get past them to become an annual playoff team.. now they play pretty dirty under the perennial 8-8 moustache man.. so its easy to hold that chip.

The Cardinals though in terms of actual team play.. they will be a thorn in our backside for quite some time. If anything, I see some parallels to the earlier days of the NFC West when we were trying to knock off the Rams. This time we are the team on top, and the Cards are the team trying to garner some relevance by finally knocking us off the throne. I know they had that brief stretch with Warner at QB where they won the division.. but at that time no other team was really worth a crap.. I kind of look at that the same way I look at Oregon's run in the Pac 12

:stirthepot:

 

[Attyla the Hawk]

It's a rivalry game. As in most divisional contests, the scoring tends to be low. Seattle is pretty comfortable playing in the teens.

If neither team reaches 20 points, I feel great about Seattle's chances to win when it gets tight. Seattle is at it's best in the slop, and tries to bring down opponents to our level.

 

[Uncle Si]

Anybody else have a real tough time caring about Arizona? Rams? Hate 'em. 49ers? Love kicking their ass. Arizona? Meh... It's the cardinals, who cares. I expect to sweep them in both our upcoming games.

I think this is in large part due to the respective fan bases of each team. The Cardinals fan base is barely a blip on the NFL radar, and there are more guys like ringless in that base than obnoxious morons like the Niners have (excluding the good posters here of course). The Rams were easy to hate early on because they were our big brother and we had to get past them to become an annual playoff team.. now they play pretty dirty under the perennial 8-8 moustache man.. so its easy to hold that chip.

The Cardinals though in terms of actual team play.. they will be a thorn in our backside for quite some time. If anything, I see some parallels to the earlier days of the NFC West when we were trying to knock off the Rams. This time we are the team on top, and the Cards are the team trying to garner some relevance by finally knocking us off the throne. I know they had that brief stretch with Warner at QB where they won the division.. but at that time no other team was really worth a crap.. I kind of look at that the same way I look at Oregon's run in the Pac 12

:stirthepot:

The Cardinals will be replaced by the Rams within two years as "Seahawks biggest competition"

 

[JAGHAWK]

I don't mean for this to sound rude... but why don't you post this stuff on an AZ fan forum? I just think maybe other AZ fans can appreciate your well thought out analysis. Maybe not? Hmm. :16:

 

[marko358]

The Cards haven't played a secondary as good as ours this year. They will struggle to move the ball and likely have a pick or two. I think we'll be able to chew on the clock with our running game.

 

[Largent80]

Hawks D is ballin right now and get Lane back. AZ will lose this game in Seattle.

 

[Sgt. Largent]

Hawks D is ballin right now and get Lane back. AZ will lose this game in Seattle.

Lane is only going to begin practicing, doubt he'll be ready to roll for AZ.

It's hard to bet against the Hawks in big time games, but I won't like I'm nervous about our offense. 21 pts might be enough for Arizona to win this game with how inept and inconsistent our offense is right now..........and a healthy Palmer and company can certainly put up 21.

 

[akscoundrel]

I don't think its a coin flip game. Not after a bye, at home, and just starting to get things turned around/fighting for playoffs.

I think its gonna be a dominating win. Still two different classes of teams, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are still Carson palmer and Larry Fitzgerald.

 

[hawknation2015]

I don't think its a coin flip game. Not after a bye, at home, and just starting to get things turned around/fighting for playoffs.

I think its gonna be a dominating win. Still two different classes of teams, Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald are still Carson palmer and Larry Fitzgerald.

The Elo projection gives the Seahawks a 63% chance to win:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... edictions/

 

[byau]

Would also like to point out neither team has proved anything yet against the better teams.

Arizona lost by 12 points to a Michael Vick/Landry Jones-led Steelers team.

Seahawks have not lost by more than 10 points in the last four years, including playoff games. The last time was October 30, 2011 against Cincinnati . . . an NFL record 73-consecutive games. They have played three undefeated teams this season and more than held there own in agonizingly close losses.

What about the eye test?

I watched two of Arizona's games recently (thank you NFL Game Rewind) and they play fast and hungry. The defense: They attack the ball, they attack the opposing offense. The offense: Carson has an arm, he has a lot of guts. And he also doesn't look hesitant or afraid

When it comes to the Seahawks: Admittedly it is hard to be objective about the Seahawks because we know what they are capable of, we know what we've seen the last few years. Trying to be objective as possible, they do not attack the ball. They react and tackle. They do not swarm like they used to. The offense: looks hesitant. Overall, this is not a confident team we are seeing.

Mental toughness is a lot of this, and if the Seahawks can find their way back to their mental toughness, I would be confident about a Seahawks win. As it is, we are facing the same problem as when we faced a confident up and coming Bengals team and Panthers team. The Cardinals will be the same.

I see it pretty much 50/50. Whatever hunger level the Cardinals come in with (and so far they've played very hungry), if the Seahawks can match that hunger level, I see a 7 to 10 point win. If the Seahawks are not as hungry (and so far they haven't been), I see a 7 to 10 point loss